Comments on: The Magic Number (or, “Who Will Win Lebanon’s Elections, part 2″)

By: The Looming Kerfuffle « Qifa Nabki

The Looming Kerfuffle « Qifa Nabki — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 08:57:43 +0000

[...] a powerful za’im who will win in a landslide. We’ve been doing the numbers on this blog for months now, so there’s not much point in releasing any last minute predictions. All of the pollsters [...]

By: Baabda Resident

Baabda Resident — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 04:10:35 +0000

Dear Greg,

There are two reasons why the FPM lead list will clean sweep Baabda as follows:

1. In 2005, Baabda and Aley were one electoral district, while in 2009, Baabda is its own separate district. Aley has a very very large PSP (Progressive Socialist Party) presence that is not as prominant in Baabda. i.e. Most Druze are PSP supporters and it is very rare to find non-Druze PSP supporters. The Druze comprise 55% of Aley voters but only 20% of Baabda voters.

2. In 2005, the overwhelming majority of Shiites (75-80%) in Baabda voted with the PSP-lead due to an electoral alliance between Hezbollah and PSP against the FPM. Shiites comprise about 23% of Baabda voters, a significant minority. In 2009, the alliance between Hezbollah and the FPM will ensure that the FPM-lead list will win at least 85-90% of the Shiite vote. This equqtes to approximately 10,000 Shiite voters who last time voted for PSP but will this time be voting FPM. Therefore this is a difference of 20K votes which is a massive factor.

Conclusion: The great reduction of PSP votes by separating Baabda from Aley as well as the switching of about 10,000 Shiite votes from PSP to FPM will ensure that the FPM-leas list will almost certainly win Baabda extremely comfortably.

In conclusions,

By: Yalibnan

Yalibnan — Sun, 24 May 2009 15:40:55 +0000

I vote march 14, not because i hate the march 8 coalition, but because im afraid march 8 will turn our nation into a new Iraq, bloody and violent. March 8 cant figt for the interest of our lebanese shia brothers, because they take orders from Iran. And Iran doesnt fight for the interest of our Shia lebanese brothers, they fight for influence!

By: Pollsters Predict Lebanese Election Results « Qifa Nabki

Pollsters Predict Lebanese Election Results « Qifa Nabki — Mon, 11 May 2009 19:17:31 +0000

[...] over/under is nine points better than the majority’s, which may be why many people are predicting a slim win for [...]

By: Syria Comment » Archives » US Will Work with Lebanon Opposition - Experts Say

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:19:38 +0000

[...] Movement (Aoun’s Christian bloc). No matter how Fox News spins it, the reality is that the onus has been placed entirely upon Michel Aoun’s Change & Reform bloc to pony up the seats to push the opposition [...]

By: Will the U.S. Punish Lebanon For Electing The Opposition? « Qifa Nabki

Will the U.S. Punish Lebanon For Electing The Opposition? « Qifa Nabki — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 08:46:32 +0000

[...] to be all about the Free Patriotic Movement. No matter how Fox News spins it, the reality is that the onus has been placed entirely upon Michel Aoun’s Change & Reform bloc to pony up the seats to push the [...]

By: Global Voices Online » Lebanon: From the Election Campaign Trail

Global Voices Online » Lebanon: From the Election Campaign Trail — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:06:41 +0000

[...] Qifa Nabki, on the other hand, has tried to predict the outcome of the elections. Not only is he predicting a victory to the Hezballah-led opposition alliance, but an increasing possibility that Hezballah's main Christian ally in Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) may wind up holding the largest number of seats out of all the parties … including Hezballah. For the past several months, polls published by both sides have predicted a swing of less than ten seats, and occasionally less than five. When I did the numbers on the blog two months ago, I tentatively forecasted a very slim win for the opposition (66-62). Of course, it could easily go the other way depending on how things play out in the swing districts of Beirut I, Zahle, and the Metn. [...]

By: Qifa Nabki

Qifa Nabki — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 06:09:50 +0000

Nidal,

There is no centrist “bloc” per se. The idea was first floated when Michel el-Murr broke with Aoun’s Change & Reform Bloc, and everybody started speculating as to whether Murr would form his own group of (allegedly) non-aligned “centrists” to run in the Metn. The Aounists objected and have tried to label the initiative as a see-through March 14 attempt to draw Christian votes away from the FPM.

Right now Murr is heading up a joint M14/”centrist” list in the Metn, which has already caused difficulties, with the withdrawal of Nassib Lahoud.

When I refer to centrists, I don’t mean any particular bloc, because no such bloc has emerged as yet. I really mean all of these independent candidates who are finding themselves on the lists of both coalitions, and who will be able to exercise a significant influence on their decision-making if the elections are extremely close.

As for the FPM, I actually do think that they would be standing. They would need to find another charismatic leader to keep the flame alive, but the amazing thing to me about the FPM is the energy and vibrancy of its base supporters.

By: Nidal

Nidal — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 04:54:16 +0000

QN,

Could you help me out on my question above? Also, I’d like to know your opinion on Aoun and his party, the FPM. Do you think that the FPM would still be popular and standing if Aoun were not its leader? Or is it simply a one-man show like all other parties in Lebanon (except for Hezbollah which is very organized)?

By: AIG

AIG — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 03:40:04 +0000

So Aoun gets elected and Feltman asks him:
Do you and Lebanon stand behind 1701?

What does he answer?

What does Aoun do about the debt? How does he roll it over without towing the Western line?

Where does Aoun go to next time the Lebanese currency is under pressure? Do you think the Saudis will give him money like they gave Saniora and Hariri?

Lebanon is so dependent on the West and Saudi that Aoun will find himself in an impossible position. It will be fun watching him squirm.