Comments on: Pollsters Predict Lebanese Election Results

By: Anatomy of a Victory « Qifa Nabki

Anatomy of a Victory « Qifa Nabki — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 05:08:08 +0000

[...] the opposition would win this election. I count myself in good company: every major pollster was projecting a narrow opposition win, and even March 14 stalwarts had expressed their frustration with the movement’s seeming [...]

By: The Looming Kerfuffle « Qifa Nabki

The Looming Kerfuffle « Qifa Nabki — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 08:57:46 +0000

[...] months now, so there’s not much point in releasing any last minute predictions. All of the pollsters seem to think that the opposition will win, but the margin has gotten narrower over the past few [...]

By: V

Wed, 13 May 2009 04:06:03 +0000

“Vote for the stupidity that is Lebanon: Vote sectarianism”
This has to be the best one!

By: Qifa Nabki

Qifa Nabki — Wed, 13 May 2009 03:53:12 +0000

Enlightened!

Loved them. LMAO. I’ve lost track of the different threads and so forgot to come over here and comment on them.

The last one is my favorite.

By: Enlightened

Enlightened — Wed, 13 May 2009 01:05:32 +0000

Wee:

QN answered your question, personally I would take with a great deal of salt the outcome of any polling done.

Let me put my marketing research hat back on from my marketing days, most reliable polling has a error factor of no more than 2% to be considered “reliable” when you do your sampling.

But here is a problem when you look at the Lebanese as a sample “They are remarkably fracticious” and trying to get sample polling done from a small sample size that is “representative” of the population would be a almost impossible task, hence QN’s worst case /best case scenario of over under being nine points would be a plausible outcome for any sane market research study.

QN: ” You didn’t like my slogans”?

By: Qifa Nabki

Qifa Nabki — Tue, 12 May 2009 12:30:39 +0000

This should serve your purposes.

http://www.nowlebanon.com/elections.aspx

By: WeeBeastie

WeeBeastie — Tue, 12 May 2009 10:58:52 +0000

Thanks. Some people (Michael Young, Tony Badran) say that Abdo Saad is pro-Hizb (indeed “a card-carrying member”, according to Tony Badran; perhaps he has been through his pockets?). But it’s not clear to me if this is really based on anything known about his own opinions, or if it has more to do with his daughter being a Hizbollah expert. Plus the fact that he did a controversial poll after the 2006 war in which most respondents said they supported the “resistance” against “Israeli aggression”.

By: K

Tue, 12 May 2009 10:31:11 +0000

Where can I find a map for the geographically challenged, ideally depicting colour coded electoral districts with links to the candidates?

By: Qifa Nabki

Qifa Nabki — Tue, 12 May 2009 09:49:39 +0000

WeeBeastie, Abdo Saad is thought to be rather pro-FPM. Jawad Adra is about as independent as you can get (he does Zogby’s polling here). I’m not sure about the others.

By: WeeBeastie

WeeBeastie — Tue, 12 May 2009 09:46:57 +0000

I like your comments, Enlightened. The slogans would make a great poster campaign.

General question – how reliable/independent do you think these pollsters are?