I don’t necessarily mean seizing total power. Just making it clear that they are willing to use violence when their aims aren’t met, whatever those aims may be.

Abraham,
May 7 sent two signals to M14. Firstly, it made it clear that any attempt at formenting civil strife would be relatively breif and for them doomed; And secondly it drew a line at was acceptable in attacking the Resisitance. It was a necessary evil that quite likely scuppered a greater evil. However, were Hizballah to use such tactics, like you suggest, as a way of actually taking power, they would lose a great deal of support, not just from amongst their allies, but from within the Shia community itself.

I read a book recently that touched upon Castro’s rise to power in Cuba. Very important in Fidel’s strategy was making a Communist victory seem preordained. Once people believed that he might win, forces that would have been inclined to oppose him instead stood aside, hedged, or attempted to placate him, thus making his victory more likely. As the timidity of his potential enemies increased, victory became more likely, causing his opponents became yet more timid. It’s what we biologists call a “positive feedback cycle”, and it’s how a small band of guerrillas took over a country.

Is it possible that Nasrallah is trying to scare people? Trying to convince them that he is going to get what he wants one way or another, so you might as well go easy. Vote for me, or at least parties I find palatable, so that I don’t have to storm West Beirut again.

your appreciation of this:
“It shows the clear state of disarray and disorganization Hizb has put itself in due to its lack of understanding of the fundamental changes that were and still are taking place in the region”

and this:
“second nakba version Southern Shia refugees had it not been for the statesmanship and decisiveness of Siniora ”

and this:
“Hence the attack on Beirut on May 7 was a reaction to this encirclement of the Hizb fighters who effectively became un-employed in search of new opportunities”

At least allows us to know where your philosophies, motivations and knowledge of Lebanon stand.

http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/17855.

The Lebanese government on the other hand succeeded under PM Siniora in reclaiming the South from Hizb control following Hizb’s 2006 fiasco – thus silencing voices who continue to accuse the Government of M14 of being indifferent to the plight of the Southerners or the integrity of Lebanon. In fact, HN would have been commemorating a second nakba version Southern Shia refugees had it not been for the statesmanship and decisiveness of Siniora who sent the army to the South after a period of over 30 years absence forced by a veto of monopoly by the Hizb. However, for HN, this is inconvenient, since the presence of UN troops alongside the Lebanese army limits its freedom of action and hampers the fulfillment of the role of the soldier of the Supreme Leader. Hence the attack on Beirut on May 7 was a reaction to this encirclement of the Hizb fighters who effectively became un-employed in search of new opportunities. Therefore, they turn their weapons northward towards the new enemy represented by a government capable of using its armed forces in defense of the countries independence. The new enemy of course can only be fought if it were found to be in a perceived state of collusion with the Zionist entity and made responsible for the failure of the original plan of HN’s abduction of the two zionist soldiers – a charge that can be easily fabricated by the media offices of the capable Hizb operatives. On the other hand, it is the Intelligence Branch within the ISF, which is the main government security branch, which is uncovering the spy rings in the country. Many of the uncovered agents have been found to be either Hizb members or residing in areas that are or used to be under Hizb control – a possible explanation for this would be the state of disenchantment of these members with the results of HN’s ‘divine promise’ that so far has failed to materialize.

What does he know? He only studied Iran his whole life and speaks fluent Farsi.

http://www.defenddemocracy.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11784049&Itemid=326