You may well be right about M14 dragging the presidency into the quagmire as way of curbing M8, particularly Hisbullah, and prevent them from holding the veto they have so far held in the executive branch. To succeed in this however, the Presidency would need to have parliamentarians of its own, a thing that is so far not clear. If you are alluding in your analysis to a ‘centrist block’, then we will have to wait and see whether the electorate would look at and vote for them as such. Another thing to look out for is the stance that President Suleiman would take.

In trying to analyse the executive branch of the post 7 June, I advice looking closely at the emerging dynamic lead by Berri and Jumblat. This new-old getting together could be the safety net that Lebanon would require if no clear winner emerges from the elections.

Regards

A logical approach, I must admit. However, this approach will carry weight only if the picture changes dramatically i.e. M14 and its allies (Centrists perhaps!) increase their share of the Parliament seats to a level that gives it a substantial majority that would practically overcome the veto that the third has been able to impose.

Alas, this is not likely to happen, not in this round at least.

Hizbullah has proved quite adept at ‘playing the game’ with the level of its existing parliamentary representation (with allies of course). Although the Hizb would welcome a national consensus over its perceived role, present and future, it doesn’t represent, at this particular point in time an overriding priority. We heard statements from across the board of the hizb’s leadership that, and I am paraphrasing, that no resistance in the history of mankind has ever enjoyed absolute support.

Do not get me wrong, the Hizb would love to win a big enough majority come 8 June, and contrary to some analysts it is working pretty hard at achieving this. But not being successful in that endeavour will not derail the Hizb and its supporters too far away from its chartered course.

As one eagle-eyed observer of the Lebanese scene put it to me: if the Hizb (and its supporters) were to gain more seats, that is a bonus. In the event that it doesn’t, then it is back to business as usual, pre-7 June style.

That said, I really do not see a revisit of the 7 May affair in the near future a plausible scenario come what may post-7 June; circumstances that led to it will not be repeated any time soon, I believe.

Regards

I’m curious what the more learned members of the board think of Awn’s role in a (‘little-f’) future government?

Also, at the risk of sounding conspiratorial: AJE posted a story today that in Nasrallah’s most recent speech (today?) he said he’d ask Iran to make up the difference in international funding. Regarding the rumors that HA is tanking it for their big prize fight, I would imagine that these sorts of statements would be incredibly frustrating for the Party’s coalition partners.

great blog, thanks

Polls unlikely to change the political face in Lebanon
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/09/06/01/10318636.html

05/31/2009 11:05 PM | By Jumana Al Tamimi, Associate Editor

Dubai: Lebanon will head to the polls on June 7 to elect a new parliament expected to resemble the outgoing one, albeit with a few and minor differences.

The political mosaic in the Legislative Council looks as if it will not be drastically different.

Analysts say that the outcome of the elections may not dramatically change Lebanon’s position on the regional political arena, as some quarters have tried to portray.

As in all other elections, the atmosphere ahead of the polling is full of “fierce competition,” Lebanese columnist Nichola Naseef said.

“There is a strong struggle to form the electoral lists, immense enthusiasm, and massive public groupings [split among the candidates]. But this should not be the criteria to say that this election is crucial, or it will change the face of Lebanon in case one group wins and another lose. Nothing will change in Lebanon,” Naseef said.

Others are concerned that the poll results will shake up the multi-ethnic and multi-religious-sector country, and it will constitute a turning point for Lebanon’s political alienation.

Currently, the ‘March 14 alliance’ – a grouping of different Muslim and Christian parties who are for the West and against Syria – has a majority of the 128-member parliament.

As a result, it has the constitutional right to name the prime minister. Prominent figures in this alliance are Sa’ad Al Hariri, former president Ameen Al Gemayel and Druze leader Walid Jumblat.

In the opposition camp, Hezbollah is considered the leading party in the ‘March 8 alliance. This alliance also includes Christian parties who are for Syria and against the West. However, they are the minority in parliament.

While many Lebanese believe it is too early to predict the winners and losers, some believe the March 8 alliance’s weight will tip the scales this time for many reasons.

These include the recent release of four Lebanese generals over insufficient evidence in the case of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination. They spent nearly four years in prison.

However, the difference is not expected to be big.

Analysts believe the difference will not exceed ten seats from the status quo. Currently, Hezbollah and its allies have 58 seats in the parliament. These are divided equally between Muslims and Christians.

Analysts fear that an electoral victory by Hezbollah, which is blacklisted by the United States and some European countries, may push Lebanon further towards both Syria and Iran and distance it further from the West and its allies. They believe this threatens the much-needed political and economic support.

For example, the United States has committed over $1 billion (Dh3.67 billion) to Lebanon since 2006. This includes $410 million availed to the country’s security forces. However, other political analysts describe such fears as exaggerated. “The changes [in the next parliament] are going to be minor and not essential,” Lebanese columnist Hosani Eitani said.

“The next parliament will also have the two blocs [the March 8 and March 14 alliances] and regardless of the side that is going to manage to form the majority bloc, it can’t delete the presence of the other.”

He added that the administration to be formed would also be a national unity government, regardless of who ended up being the majority and minority partners.

Politically, Lebanon has witnessed many alliances among rival factions in the past few decades.

In the country’s political history, it is not unusual to make friends of yesterday’s enemies and vice-versa.

“The election in Lebanon has always been an internal affair,” Naseef said. “It will be another day for the Lebanese on June 8 and the debate will shift from elections to efforts to form the government.”

Shai,

I agree.