“A study came out after the release of the electoral results indicating that the opposition received a popular vote of 815,000 (54.5%) compared to 680,000 (45.5%) for the pro-government coalition.”

What do you all think about this?

I seem to remember seeing these numbers cited elsewhere, and a link being given to an article in The Daily Star. Now I’m kicking myself for not bookmarking that page. Do any of you know if there in fact is such a Daily Star article out there somewhere that I might take a look at?

I was not making predictions in my prvious comment. It is not may favorite game.

And by the way, I have been to all Christian concentraed Cazaa’s, and actually lived in quite few of them for quite sometime, including Achrafiye.

Oups! so you finally made a wrong prediction. Simply based on my views and comments, you assumed that I know nothing about Lebanon or its geography (perhaps a better term would be its demographics) outside the hard-core Christian Cazas.

My hometown where I used to spend my weekends and summers since childhood till late teens is actually a tiny Christian village that is decorated by several surrounding Muslim villages in Akkar (perhaps, the most non-Christian caza in Lebanon). As kids from neighboring villages, we roamed the same “basateen”, snacked on the same dusty fig trees, then played hide and seek around the same berry bushes. During week days, my family resided in Tripoli; and not in Mina area or Mar Maroun street, but in the heart of the city surrounded by neighbors who were predominantly Muslim. As such, during the worst period of the civil war, I actually grew up, studied, played, and celebrated with classmates and friends who prayed, dressed, and in some ways were raised differently. I recall that I once attempted to fast Ramadan with them (that was tough; I honestly have no idea how you guys can go thirsty for that long).

When it comes to the national identity, it is true that we should be Lebanese first and Christian or Muslim or whatever second. However, as the system stands right now, you have to admit that sectarianism does exist. It is quite the norm and perhaps one might say the responsibility of the leading figure in each community not only to look for its interests, but to be a good role model. So, if MP Hariri attempts to rally behind him the majority of the Sunni electorate in Lebanon and to look for its interests and protect its rights in our messed up system, would that make him less Lebanese? The same applies for the other leaders such as MP Jumblat or Berri…etc. So, why should it be any different for us?

Having been raised the way I was, would you really expect me to feal comfortable with Geagea or Gemayel (or their present replicas/descendents) as the leading figure for my community? Even if I forget their fabulous legacy and contribution to the nation for the past 30 years, how am I supposed to forget that while growing up, it was common to hear stories of a neighbor’s son or someone from the city vanishing on his way to Beirut as he was crossing the LF/Kateab checkpoints (by the way, to be fair, these things happened in both directions).

On the other hand, you asked whether there are any non-Christian Lebanese in FPM? You’re obviously unaware or perhaps had a memory lapse that among the very first wave of March 14 1989 spokesmen and martyrs, those resting in burial places in Muslim towns are not far less in numbers than those resting in Church backyards. You may say that this was the case back in 1989-1990 and this no more stands. In fact, although the majority of the base members in FPM are Christians, yet the non-Christian voices can not be taken lightly (~5% to last year’s registration). Its founding council and its activists do have a zealous represntation from those of Muslim faith and not only Shia.

Finally, nope; I do not know anyone of the Jarrah family and have to admit that I’ve only been in Rashaya and Bekaa once during a school trip (we were not even allowed to leave the bus at the time). Likewise, I am sure that many of them and possibly yourself have not been to the “concentrated” Christian Cazaas as well. One thing I can guarantee you that they would probably feel way more comfortable and welcome at the dinner table under an Orange roof vs. drinking water from the hands of any of their current Christian allies. Apparently, not only GMA has to exercise some diet for the next 4 years.

In good health.

What a strange comment coming from a partisan. Not taking sides, but did you hear the dollar figures that the European and US press were quoting when describing how Saudi Arabia financed the M14 coalition? I think the BBC mentioned $500 MM. How can you say the country comes first when clearly it was foreign interests; namely Saudi.

I am actually taking sides not because I favour any particular grouping but because you Lebanese are so arrogant to believe that you are better than your neighbours. This election only showed that you are worse because they don’t claim to be democratic: you do. In Lebanon money talks, b******t walks. Hariri / Saudi money was screaming on Sunday.

For all M14 scare mongering about Iran and Syria, it was the only 5th column in the country.

Do you have any non-Christian LEBANESE members in FPM? Do you know anything about Lebanon’s geography besides the Cazaa’s where the Christians are concentrated? Do you know any member of the Jarrah clan? Do you know what country the members of this clan live in? Do you know their nationality? Do you how civilized they are?

By the way the government hasn’t been formed yet. But GMA is not going to have a lion’s share in it, I can assure you about that. So if he is seeking to be a good leader in Lebanon, he may have to control his apetite and exercise some diet. The rules are very clear. Lebanon comes first and not who represents the Christians of Lebanon.

Even if falling short of expectations, not only they gained more seats this round, but they still scored well considering all the factors combined.

So, Majid, whether you like it or not, GMA is still by far the leader of the largest Christian bloc in parliament and hence the leader of the Christians in the nation (based on both MP counts in Christian caza’s and on the popular Christian vote). Back in 1990, the man was our exiled Christian leader with 0 seats. Hey, you have to give him some credit.

On a different note, so what if the Shia in Jezzine gave FPM MPs most of their votes? If this says anything, it means that they got the majority Christian and the majority Shia votes in an area where their serious competition was the Shia group Amal. So not only it gives the 3 winning MPs there Christian leadership legitimacy but even a national one.

If the new government that will be formed with your majority (that you’re obviously so eager to support) chooses the likes of Nahra, Sami, Nadim, or Nayla; oh wait a minute…I forgot Hadi, to fill in the Christian quota in the government, then “haniaan lakom wa li tayyar el moustaqbal wa li loubnan bi hal hokm el ati… wou aya moustaqbal hayda”. Seriously.

Double congrats.

it seems that you like to play the game of shia/sunni. well in baabda the sunnis+druze are
slightly more than shia. in jbeil the difference was more than 8000 votes so FPM won the christian vote in jbeil against
LF+patriarch+president+harriri money