Far from it, my dear compatriot; far from it being funny, if you hear what I am saying!

May whatever higher power exists look favourably upon us Lebanese.

Regards

You managed to confuse me, I am used to coherent logic; still I see your point!

Regards

I don’t like going back and forth, however, I will this time as you seem to think that your analysis are correct and mine faulty…We all have opinions and can articulate them differently. However, if you based your conclusions on certain premises while excluding others; then your conclusion is faulty…

9) My friend the medical condition of Mr. Aoun has been well known in some circles. He was admitted to Asfourieh in late 60′s and early 70′s. I cannot provide you with certificate of admission…This has been confirmed by the head of the hospital, Dr. Manoogian; in those days. It is up to you to believe it or not! Mr. Aoun’s outbursts and demeanor have been psycho anayzed by many all coming to the same conclusion of his mental instability. Again I was making my comment based on the fact that he was under observation in Lebanese Mental institution for a few years…I do not know past that period!
As for the holder of the largest Christian block has no bearing on my point.

8. I do not read Angry Arab…
7. You have not refuted that the statelet exists independent of the Lebanese institutions. Iran blatently pours their cash into HA coffers to build those schools, hospitals etc…They neglect that a legal government exists and deal with HA as if it is a state of its own…As for the elections; billions was spent by KSA and Iran to bring in emigres. Ok.

6. Corraboration is simple…Read what was talked about during the elections and both sides projected their vision as a diametric oposite of the other…In practical terms May 7th…

5. Again all good deeds. However all bypassing the legal elected government to support the statlet. You see my friend it is a matter of proving that the State does not care for the Shias while the HA does…Money is not flowing in legally…If you think the end justifies the means; then that’s your opinion!

4. You are correct Iran is not the sole illegal funding that HA receives. Recently we heard about the convictions in USA and South America of HA operatives who were smuggling contraband and drugs to funnel the proceeds to HA…I will not mention more about Bekaa valley!

3. #24 elaborates better than me.
2.It was in an interview in early 2008 to the Iranian TV…I apologize for lack of the link. However, it was discussed extensivelly in the Lebanese media and politicians alike.

1.Again, HA has not changed its stance in its charter its goal of the establishment of the Islamic Republic in Lebanon. As for speeches there are a multitude of them and even more analysis and interpretation.

Respectfully

It is clear that you have a lot to say, this is commendable. It is similarly clear that you feel strongly about some of if not all what you believe in, a potentially positive trait if, and only if aligned to context and thread.

I would have loved to share with you my thoughts about Wilayat Al Faqih, but for 2 basic hindrances on my part: 1) it is outside the purpose of the initial thread, and 2) I cannot claim to understand the concept (and I really do not believe a lot of laypeople can claim otherwise as the concept is based on core Shiite religious tradition within Islam, husbanded to various political, social and economic theories born out of the sect‘s characteristics.

That said, I can attempt to allude, with due respect, to certain points made by you that I find somewhat questionable and/or deserving of further consideration:

1- SHN did not declare “membership” rather he pledged allegiance to a Shiite socio-political concept that he believes to be workable. If you are quoting SHN you ought to recall also that he specifically said that he will in no way reflect his and his party’s beliefs on Lebanon. Let us remember that Lebanon, as small in size as it is, harbours more than its fare share of diverse political and socio-economic beliefs represented by several tens of parties and movements. This fact has been lauded by all as a shining example of Lebanon’s vitality and democracy;

2- I am afraid I failed in my search to ascertain your claim that the Hizb or SHN has “… offered Lebanese limbs in the defence of Khamenei”. What is universally recognised is that the Hizb, even before SHN, has paid dear for liberating Lebanese territories from Israeli occupation, freed hundreds of Lebanese POWs from Israeli jails, and made Lebanon strategically more immune to Israeli ‘attacks-at-will” as used to happen since the late forties, well before the existence of the PLO and the Hizb. Is it possible that these points were missed by you, or is it that political expediencies and the requirements of political debate dictate that one ignores the founding principle of the Hizb?

3- Another case of misrepresentation is your assertion that SHN proclaimed that being against Wilayat Al Faqih is tantamount to being anti Shiite. You said: “… Nassrallah has asserted that anyone W of F is against Shia sect and Islam”. In fact, if you review SHN speech regarding that issue delivered mere weeks ago you would find him saying that there is even conflicting views regarding the concept within the Shiite community itself, let alone among adherents of other traditions of Islam e.g. Sunnis;

4- Yes the Hizb is well funded, some of which comes from Iran (your choice to use the term Persia rather than the official name of Iran is quite transparent in its attempt!). Let me share with you a fact that is at the core of the Shiite tradition of Islam: Shiites the world over are duty-bound to contribute a certain percentage of their wealth to presumed descendants of the prophet Mohammad. There are many rules and regulations to these contributions that I cannot claim to understand. These contributions amount to millions and millions of dollars. Iran being what it is, an Islamic Republic in the way of the Shiite tradition has some of the largest donation centres. One wouldn’t be particularly surprised to learn that a substantial portion of the contributions collected in Iran reaches the Hizb in Lebanon. I will accede the point that assistance to the Hizb comes from Iran and it is varied from material (weapons and training) to financial. But to make Iran the sole provider of the Hizb’s funds borders on misrepresentation;

5- I do not think that you are bemoaning the fact that the Hizb builds schools and hospitals and runs successful, indeed much needed social programmes in the areas of the Shiite population. Far from it, I thought you would applaud such endeavours as it is for the betterment of a large segment (the largest, in fact) of your co-citizens;

6- You stated: “You can not compare HA’s existence to that of M14 which is a patch up coalition of anti HA”. I never heard any M14 member saying that the coalition is anti-Hizbullah, rather a gathering for Lebanon and meant to bring the country in all its components (including the Hizb, one would presume) into a new trouble-free and prosperous era. M14 might have issues with some of the Hizb’s politics or views, and this is legitimate, but to infer that M14 is in existence just to be anti-Hizbullah requires more corroboration;

7- You further stated: “patch up coalition of anti HA parties and do not have the statelet like HA… M14 does not have the jolly benefactor like Iran who unabashedly interferes in Lebanese state affairs by pumping billions of dollars to win over…”. I agree with you. M14 is not supported by a ’statelet’, as you put it, just by the only superpower on earth and the vast majority of what is termed in political jargon as ’the West’ not to mention the official Arab regime that would not hesitate to ‘contribute‘ vast amounts of money and various resources to their ’allies’. In support let us review US media that talked about the vast amounts of money that poured into Lebanon to subsidise the last elections. As to interfering in Lebanese domestic affairs, one has to be objective when analysing this particular issue: Iran’s president Ahmadinajad responded to a media question regarding the Lebanese elections. While on the other hand the US Vice President, no less, took time off from his official duties to come to Lebanon in a clear endeavour of support for the anti-opposition camp; it seems his visit was ‘official business’ after all. Similarly, the US Secretary of state unequivocally warned that a result putting the opposition in power after the election would jeopardise planned and greatly needed US assistance to the Lebanese national army. Let us compare interference, indeed;

8- Your reiteration of the theory, first advanced by Angry Arab as far as I am aware, that the Hizb didn’t really want to win the election for a variety of consideration, remains valid, although the Hizb is on the record saying that such a proposition is baseless. While I do take the official position by the Hizb at face value, as one should, I agree that it did make tactical mistakes that ought not have been committed by a party known for its meticulous thinking and preparation;

9- Dear Danny. Name-calling flies right in the face of intellectual purity and renders contributions lacking in credibility. If you wish, you can point out and elaborate on what you believe to be failings of a politician, but labelling a leader who remains the holder of the largest Christian block in the Lebanese Parliament “mentally unstable” hardly bodes well for a methodical argument.

Regards

“Lebanon” functions much better when it is just an idea, a loose concept, a place to do business and where each community does it own thing and looks after its own interests – so long as it doesn’t try and come and impose some “State” or authority on other group’s turf and domain.

The last thing Lebanon needs is a strong State, a clear constituion, proportional representation or any else of this non-sense talk that would take us to either (1) a separation wall like in Cyprus or (2) the use of a powerful State by one ethnic group to permanently oppress and supress other ethnic groups (as is the case in the “Islamic Republic” of Iran or in the “Jewish State” in Palestine).

Who wants to be like that? Permament walls – permanent oppression of one group against another – that is what a “strong State” would mean for Lebanon, that it becomes like Israel/WestBankGaza or like Cyrpus or Iran. Forget it!

What we’ve seen in Iran recently cannot yet be considered as a total rejection of this concept, at least not by the upper echelon of the establishment which includes the so-called opposition figures. But the Juri-Consul’s ‘infallible’ authority has come under attack publicly by Karrouby, Moussawi, and others and a sizeable part of the population condoned such attack.

As Amir Taheri points out in an article here, the divisions within the Iranian society run deep and they go all the way up to the top including the military establishment. He names individuals in his articles and how they are aligned. Some may object to Taheri as too pro-right. That’s true. But you cannot dismiss his report solely on this basis, since we’ve seen some of what he described in this report playing out in public. It is for this reason that Hassan Nasrallah found it important to make his statement with regards to the fundamental nature of this concept, as he claimed, to the Shiite community. The same divisions that have appeared in Iran may well appear within this community in Lebanon and that bodes ill for the legitimacy of HA’s claim to representing this community – hence the need to make the statement.

I may even raise the following possibility. Did anyone consider the possibility that Imam Sadr’s dispapearnce may be somehow related to this inter-Shiite struggle? That doesn’t absolve Kaddafi (even though he is not formally charged). He could still have acted on behalf of certain groups and I’m not laying charges here. But remember Khomeini’s book appeared in 1970 well before Mr. Sadr disappeared.

What about all the other Shiite authorities, such as the late Shamsedeen, Fadlallah, al-Amin and others? How will they line up in this struggle?

“It is naive to intimate that HA as awaiting instructions from Tehran on how to play the domestic game, as it is naive to say that M14, and its more recent manifestation(s), is waiting on the doorsteps of Washington awaiting the white smoke.”

I respectfully disagree. Hassan Nassrallah has publicly proclaimed his ‘membership” to the W of F even offering Lebanese limbs as a sacrifice in “defence” of khameini…Nassrallah has asserted that anyone W of F is against Shia sect and Islam. He has time and time again proclaimed HA allegiance to Khameini. I do not see HA’s independence anywhere. They are funded by Persia in the tune of $500m to $1billion annually in some estimates.

You can not compare HA’s existence to that of M14 which is a patch up coalition of anti HA parties and do not have the statelet like HA… M14 does not have the jolly benefactor like Iran who unabashedly interferes in Lebanese state affairs by pumping billions of dollars to win over the Shia population (hospitals, schools and the social network that exist under HA control). We can also not ignore May 7th; as the HA leaders constantly remind us of that “glorious day”!

As for the opposition; HA ratcheted up the rhetoric a week prior to election to firm up the Christian swing vote against Aoun (Hassan Nassrallah describing May 7 as a glorious day; Qassem declaring war against UN and Raad threatening the opposition against any talk about their weapons are some examples). I have the distinct feeling that HA did not want to be in majority with the mentally unstable Aoun for several reasons. They can dominate and have their own way without having to govern and be accountable to the people. They did not see any advantage to being in the majority!

I hope your prediction and analysis trumps mine and we have a functioning government soon.

Respectfully

It is naive to intimate that HA as awaiting instructions from Tehran on how to play the domestic game, as it is naive to say that M14, and its more recent manifestation(s), is waiting on the doorsteps of Washington awaiting the white smoke.

I do agree with your analysis however that national players on the domestic scene have alliances that they can call upon if/when the need arises. That said, it is quite clear that HA has demonstrated over the years, especially the past 3-4 years, which it has its own views and it does take action accordingly. If anything, it is regional powers that behold to HA in its endeavours to maintain a feasible position the game of nations, as Jumblat loves recently to term it. HA, as I see it, has developed a momentum that has made it immune to a large degree to pressures that run against his regional STRATEGIC vision.

I also cannot see real indications that point to a sustentative rift between Tehran and Damascus, a much longed for state by the West in general. Consequently, any talk about an imminent parting of ways between Berri and HA is wishful thinking at best.

The opposition of pre-7 June is the same opposition of today. After yesterday’s parliamentary fiasco, it seems to me that the single most needed ingredient in a smooth formation of a government i.e. trust, will be a rare commodity in Lebanese politics, I am afraid.

No one has any intentions to spoil what promises to be a economically vibrant summer in Lebanon. Come Autumn, perhaps!

Regards