Lebanon will continue to be the shining star in the region, economically and politically. A stronger united and more cohesive Lebanon will soon emerge that will resist all factions being imposed in the region by sources outside of the immediate “United for Lebanon” movement. A need for intelligence gathering and containment will continue to emerge in order to plan for the greater good of Lebanon under one leadership regardless of religious beliefs.

But yeah, Fawzi Salloukh as foreign minister, and the 3rd and 4th points in my cons were intended for pros.

Yes, I meant in the event of a government resignation. That was the subtext of the 15-10-5 deal.

Blackstar,

I’m preparing a post as we speak, on the subject. Stay tuned!

PurpleMonkey:

Fneish was not Foreign Minister. Fawzi Salloukh was. Fneish was Labor, I believe.

I’d be interested to read your analysis on who you think “won” from this cabinet haggling/negotiation. Do you think by holding out so long and getting more or less what he wanted, Aoun succeeded in gaining stronger footing for himself in this government? In the end, can we say that Hariri couldn’t stand his ground and caved? If so, what does that mean for this government’s future policies and in particular for the ministerial statement? In terms of bargaining skills, it seems to me that Aoun proved his mettle, and also that Hariri’s bluff resignation didn’t really have much of an effect on reinforcing his position. Thoughts?

“Adnan al-Sayyed Hussein (President’s share [and Hezbollah's presumable swing vote])”

Why?

I’d say he is no more a swing vote to the minority as Minister Elias al-Murr is a swing vote to the majority.

Unless you mean that should Amal & HA ministers resign later at some cross-road issue and Minister Hussein follows along (being the 6th Shia minister), then this could potentially bring the gov. down? If so, then no need to worry.

If you check Dr. Hussein’s biographical sketch including his long track record of teaching at the Lebanese University and at the Lebanese Army’s Command and Staff College, you would see why President Suleiman chose him (and why both sides agreed). Some of his publications could be nice additions to your Lebanon Bibliography.

Ras Beirut (18):

Likewise, I feel optimistic. Indeed, inshallah kheir.

The Syrian regime should be worried – when the Lebanese move forward, it shows it can be done in a multi ethnic state like Syria.

And Fatah should take note in the Land of Israel – I look forward to those people in Bethlehem and Nablus getting the right to vote for representation in the Knesset – then we will see a parliament in the Land of Israel that reflects the views of all of the subjects of the state, instead of the separate rules for separate sectarian groups as is now the case. Yallah, one person one vote in the Land of Israel in the next decade, then Syria is next after that!

- Michel Suleiman has 5 ministries.
- Mohammad Fneish is no longer Minister of Foreign Affairs.
- Kataeb might be walking out of March 14 (Sami Gemayyel is a supremacist and an alliance of only LF/FM/Independents is better off – more seats for the LF).
- Gebran Bassil got the Energy Ministry, and not that he would have been top choice, but I know he’d be willing to do anything to prove himself worthy of carrying the FPM lantern after Aoun – so serious work is expected.
- A (relatively) large number of female ministers that are not related to male politicians.
- A (relatively) large number of new faces.

The cons:
- Its formation re-enforced the consensus precedent that was established as a result of the May 7 events.
- Ministries of Energy and Telecommunications stayed with the opposition, which makes partial privatization of the sectors highly unlikely.
- Ziad Baroud and Tarek Mitri are back.
- There’s no (clear) blocking third, and if Adnan Al-Sayyed Hussein does take the oppositions side over that of the president, Michel Suleiman would feel betrayed by the opposition and see things the way they are.
-Fouad Siniora, one of the very few Lebanese to adhere to the constitution, verbatim, will be missed.

Im waiting for the Ministerial Statement to expand on those. Lets pray its as close as possible to the Priority List that QN compiled.