Comments on: The New Cabinet: Observations & Projections

By: Student elections: The echo of divisions past « the human province

Student elections: The echo of divisions past « the human province — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:02:53 +0000

[...] elections and even more so now that there is finally a government five months later. (See Qifa Nabki and Miss T for some views on the new government.) For example, even though Jumblatt left March 14 [...]

By: Global Voices Online » Lebanon finally has a government

Global Voices Online » Lebanon finally has a government — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:30:24 +0000

[...] of the Phalangist fallout, Lebanese political blogger Elias Muhanna senses a shift in alliances, Qifa Nabki: On the one hand, I can understand the frustration: Social Affairs is a pretty lousy ministry, [...]

By: worriedlebanese

worriedlebanese — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:44:25 +0000

I totally agree with you Danny.
But I would be more specific in my terminology. Tor Sarkissian wasn’t lent to Mustaqbal, his seat was lent. In analysing the electoral market, I think it’s important to distinguish between seat lending (or seat swaps) and MP lending.
To stay in Jumblatistan, Adwan or Habre are good examples of seat lending. Gharios today or Andraos yesterday are good examples of MP lending.
What is interesting in these types of arrangements is that they do not seem to have an effect on local politics, at least not yet. Maybe the coming municipal elections will change this trend…

By: danny

danny — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:09:40 +0000

WL,

It was very well known that at least Jeanjeanian was an LF before the elcections…That’s why LF “lent” Toursarkissian to Mustakbal in Beirut (for Richard Kouyoumjian) in Zahle…

By: worriedlebanese

worriedlebanese — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:07:31 +0000

@ QN 2
The number game is effectively very interesting. The affiliation I rely on are those of the government blocs that were submitted to Nabih Berri after his re-election.
It is a bit tricky because of the fictitious “independents” and the numerous borrowing and lending games you find during elections (Mustaqbal is the biggest lender, followed by Hezbollah followed by the PSP) and after the elections. There are at least a dozen MP who are not really part of the blocs they are in (they are either part of another patronage network or another ideological formation).

Going back to the Lebanese Forces: Chant Janjanian and Joseph Maalouf abandoned Fattouch after the elections and joined the Lebanese Forces bloc (the Kataeb expressed shock because these two men had run as “independents”).

By: J of Chalcedon

J of Chalcedon — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:34:18 +0000

The new (and former) health minister is a pure technocrat: a qualified person with no apparent place in this calculus. There other such people kicking around Amal; kind of gives lie to the idea that every 50-ish clever type gravitated to Hizbollah. Some never had the option, for political considerations that govern the formation of Lebanese cabinets (or at least the ones I saw born/miscarried).

By: Qifa Nabki

Qifa Nabki — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:22:08 +0000

Wa Law

Good question. No clue.

By: Qifa Nabki

Qifa Nabki — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:20:50 +0000

mas,

The FPMers are thinking along the same lines as you are: being in the opposition was pretty good for us, and maybe it will be good for the Kata’eb as well.

I’m not sure… if Nadim and Sami were a lot more charismatic and expressed a real vision, then maybe I could see that. But for now, neither is terribly inspiring. Well, Nadim is better than Sami, as far as public speaking goes.

I don’t know much about Mohammed Khalifeh. I know As`ad thinks very highly of him. He’s going to be at Harvard this weekend; maybe I’ll try to interview him for the blog…
‘
Yes the crack about Husayn Hajj Hasan was funny; I think the “scaring little children” thing was directed at Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyid, who does kind of sound like a creature from the abyss when he talks.

By: Wa Law

Wa Law — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:19:21 +0000

The Angry Arab’s piece is really interesting, thanks for sharing. I agree with his analysis of Aoun’s picks.

I have a question: what’s happened of / what’s next for Fouad Siniora?

By: mas

mas — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:56:03 +0000

Thanks QN for the thorough analysis and for formatting angry arab’s post into readable paragraphs!

Don’t you feel that in case of a defection, the Kataeb would gain in terms of popularity, being the only Christian party not subservient to either the “Syrian/Iranian/Shiite axis” or the “Saudi/Sunni axis”? The FPM was in that position in 2005 and it was to its advantage in the ballots.

I agree with most of angry arab’s analysis except for his description of Muhammad Khalifeh!
Husayn Hajj Hasan: “Unlike most Hizbullah leaders, he is relaxed, humorous and does not scare little children when he speaks.” That cracked me up!