Comments on: The Beginnings of Another Lebanon-Israel Conflict?

By: Check out my new article with Andrew Lebovich at Foreign Policy’s Middle East Channel: “The commentators march to war” « Aaron Y. Zelin

Tue, 22 Mar 2011 16:26:11 +0000

[...] Shi’a south. Yet as Lebanon specialist Elias Muhanna (author of the popular blog Qifa Nabki) points out, the destruction likely to result from a full-scale Israeli attack prompted by a Hezbollah [...]

By: ricardo

ricardo — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 17:20:14 +0000

Perhaps israel will feel forced to a preemptive strike since they know where the
now very large hezbollah ammunition dumps are. A massive first strike in full force should degrade this. Hezbollah just has more of the same, and bombarding the north of israel where more arab then jews where killed in 2006 since the north has an arab majority, will be considered a big plus by
rightwing israeli’s. Like scoring in you own goal, especially since many jews will immediately move south.
I would hit first since i believe a war is inevitable anyway.

By: E.

E. — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 13:43:24 +0000

Galey wrote: “Whatever the cause of the disaster, it has exposed the uncomfortable and often unuttered truth that *many* Lebanese are still virulently racist.”
Galey also said, “many Lebanese, ” Matthew. My issue with this sentence is with “still virulently racist.” *Still* implies that racism is an issue of backwardness or a lack of progress, which infers that other peoples are no longer racist. Yes, the west is racist– and perhaps less overtly so when it comes to certain procedures– as would hopefully be the case of DNA testing victims or giving mourners access to their family. But this should be no cause for comfort or smugness in the west; it only means that they have– in some aspects– de-institutionalized overt racism and segregation against one group, only to engage in racial profiling and hate-mongering against another. And institutionalized racism is alive and well in the US as we all know, only less overt than 60 years ago (mass incarceration instead of ‘whites only’). Muslims were also shepherded off stage and out of camera range at Obama’s campaign rallies during the 2008 primaries. The appropriate title would have been– perhaps– “Airline crash *highlights* Lebanon’s racist underbelly” since the exposure was there before and has been one of the 3 topics or so covered by western media (Hezbollah, gay nightlife, racist Lebanese), and locally of course (Al Akhbar.)
But this is semantical nitpicking at this point, and its totally within the realm of possibility that Galey didn’t pick the title himself.
In Galey’s defense, he did mention that the western press also focused on Lebanese casualties: “The BBC even commissioned a special report on the Lebanese diasporas in Western Africa. No such article was mooted for the reverse demographic.”
There has been an outpouring of outrage within Lebanon as well about the treatment of migrant workers. Galey could have mentioned that. Still I agree that too many Lebanese are racist and that this extends to officialdom. I’ve heard a Lebanese judge say –in “polite” company– that Ethiopian suicides are a result of “their mental problems.” Everyone present there (wealthy Lebanese) nodded in agreement. Another woman i know who doesn’t pay her domestic worker for months on end recently joined a group on facebook called “Lebanese for human rights.” I doubt that she’s aware of her own hypocrisy, and if people like her, who care more or about how they are perceived in the west need to read about their own racism in the western press then so be it. In general, it is a good thing that attention be drawn to this issue. Of course any news that reflects badly on Arabs will always give Arab-haters a point to belabor in defense of their own racism. That’s obviously problematic. I don’t think we have a solution to this, except perhaps a duty to point out that there are outraged Lebanese and to give them airtime, as well. Personally, I’m never offended when people say Europeans or Americans are racist. I know it to be true and I welcome the observation. Large swaths of Lebanese society are racist and accept racism against migrant laborers and people with darker complexions. If there were law enforcement to protect migrant labor rights and government initiatives, this would have to change, so I’m all for blaming officials first and foremost. Shaming is the first step.

By: EDB

EDB — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 06:05:16 +0000

I can’t think of any realistic scenario where Hezbollah would risk the unfavorable internal Lebanese backlash that would undoubtedly succeed any operation by Hezbollah that ignites another war. They’re not going to do it just because they’re “itching to try their new rockets.” If Israel destroys Lebanon anew– and we can be sure that Israel will not risk a conflict that ends with an inconclusive ceasefire this time without wreaking far greater death and destruction than in 2006, because the stakes are even higher (Goldstone or not)– the issue of Hezbollah’s arms will signify a life or death cause to the Lebanese who want to live in a Dubai on the Mediterranean and anyone with business interests. In short, what’s at stake for Hezbollah, should it look like they provoked a war, is the future of their weapons in Lebanon, once the dust settles. I don’t think they can afford that right now.

What’s at stake for Israel, apart from another Goldstone inquiry, (which they will be sure to quash in advance this time,) is their deterrence—and that is everything to them. Lebanon is where Israel routinely miscalculates, blunders and retreats. By comparison, beating up Gaza is like stuffing your underwear with tissue paper to appear better endowed at face value; it works superficially and in the short-term for the crowd at home. But a war with Hezbollah that ends inconclusively is to be avoided at all costs because it exposes Israel’s fundamental weakness– to its own citizens and to its enemies. Given the paranoid state of Israel’s populace and its desire for harsh responses and macho men politicians, a war can be viewed as sort of an endgame—at worst—for both Hezbollah and Israel. On the other hand, Israel is known to overestimate its abilities and there’s no evidence that they won’t blunder into thinking they can get rid of Hezbollah once and for all. After all, it was clear to anyone with half a brain cell that they would never succeed in destroying Hezbollah in 2006 even before the first shots were fired. They didn’t seem to know that,though, and the poor intelligence they had in 2006 (kidnapping Nasrallah’s namesake, the 75 year old grocer, et al), failing to disrupt Hezbollah’s communications, its TV station and its military capacity, doesn’t bode well for them in the near future. The arrogance of power has infected them, which is a sort of wild card in any scenario (in addition to the ‘let’s show them we’re crazy’ strategy of Halutz and Barak, and the Dahiye doctrine). So, my prediction is: Israel might be stupid enough to start a war or use some incident as a pretext for war, but Hezbollah won’t. Hezbollah might shoot down an Israeli plane, but that’s not enough of a pretext for Israel to demolish the country and that would—in fact—be the only scenario where Hezbollah would come away looking good within Lebanon.

By: Nasser Victor

Nasser Victor — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 15:05:06 +0000

In any case, Israel can justify its attack fairly well right now considering Iran’s actions, statements, threats, and non-compliance with the UN/NPT.

Iran can also justify its actions superbly well considering Israel’s actions, statements, threats, and non-compliance with the UN/NPT (even more so than Iran).

By: lally

lally — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 22:15:42 +0000

Why would “Lebanon watchers” with geo/political agendas be considered reliable when it comes to possibilities of “Operation Do-Over” happening in this New Year?

“Israel watchers” would have a better perspective on the probabilities if their calculations are based on the IDF’s military preparations, manuevers and mobilizations.

Fortunately for Lebanon, the later group includes officials of the ISF, LAF and the current Lebanese government. Oh yeah, and Hezbollah, too.

Of course, they have very real reasons to be concerned about Lebanon’s security. Quite unlike those who are invested in other agendas that depend on following a wellworn script in order to maintain or achieve success among the influential policy circles riddled with the likes of David Schenker, Jeffrey Feltman and Daniel Shapiro.

By: Maverick

Maverick — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 12:38:11 +0000

gotta love the battle for the largest Hommous plate…I think that is all thats going to wager come this year.Every government are too entrenched in diplomacy at the moment for any premature fireworks.

By: Akbar Palace

Akbar Palace — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 12:04:45 +0000

Yes, Israel is definitely required to justify its action, if it attacks Iran!

Badr,

The issue was retaliation from Hezbo missiles, not Iran. In any case, Israel can justify its attack fairly well right now considering Iran’s actions, statements, threats, and non-compliance with the UN/NPT.

In any case, I predict no war in 2010.

Here’s my bet…

http://img.recipezaar.com/img/recipes/11/92/48//large/picWvfi0H.jpg

By: AIG

AIG — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 05:37:59 +0000

Ghassan,

Here is my bet:
http://www.herbivoracious.com/images/2007/09/12/abulafiapitazatar.jpg

By: AIG

AIG — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 05:33:08 +0000

Bagels??? Strange NY invention.
I will put on the line a za’atar pita from the famous Aboulafia bakery in Jaffa.