The following commentary is by a well-informed reader of this blog who goes by the pseudonym “Charles”. He was one of the authors of the excellent Lebanese Political Journal blog (largely defunct since about 2007, but a must-read during the post-Hariri assassination years), and his intervention provides some much-needed context on the larger issues behind the telecoms showdown in Lebanon.
Reader Commentary by “Charles”
It appears that the basic problem is a lack of state accountability. Two oligarchic factions are standing off against one another.
The discussion to privatize Ogero goes back to the days of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri (and Finance Minister Fouad Siniora) who had the political and economic clout to privatize Ogero and make it his own. From 2003-4, the Syrians severely limited Hariri’s privatizations, which resulted in Moody’s downgrading Lebanon’s bond rating, as the government was not following its own debt restructuring program according to the guidelines set out in Paris II, which included promises to privatize the telecommunications network, the electrical grid, MEA, amongst other things.
Of course, the re-election of Lahoud and the removal of Hariri put everything else on hold, but Hariri’s men remained in their positions in the ministries waiting for their leader to return to power. Omar Karami’s (and Finance Minister Elias Saliba’s) failures alongside Syrian heavy handedness almost guaranteed Hariri’s return to power and a return to privatizations.
When M14 won the 2005 elections and then negotiated Paris III, the privatizations were supposed to continue, but did not because of opposition from Jumblatt, Berri, and Hezbollah, who humiliated Hariri and Siniora by rudely making their opposition to privatization known during the PM and Finance Minister’s meetings in New York and DC (something we saw them do once again to topple Hariri’s gov’t in 2011).
The telecoms privatization continued to fester under Marwan Hamade who, despite his affiliation with the March 14th coalition (M14), also had problems with Abdel Monem Youssef who was still waiting to become the director of the newly privatized Ogero and make his millions. The M14 appointed and affiliated director of the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) Kamal Shehadeh had major problems with both Hamade and Youssef.
The transfer of telecoms to Gebran Bassile was a remarkably intelligent move by Michel Aoun. Without a financial power base of his own, Aoun needed a source of wealth to finance his politics, and he went to the same sources of money that finance a huge portion of Lebanese government operating costs: (1) foreign backers; (2) and the government owned telecommunications networks that allow Lebanese to do what we do best: talk on cell phones.
Since then, both specific interests within the Future Movement (not the entire party, and definitely not all of M14) and specific interests within the FPM (not the entire party, and definitely not all of the March 8th coalition [M8]) have determined the debate over telecommunications. This debate went from being nasty under Gebran Bassile to being an all out war under Charbel Nahhas, under whose tenure the esteemed technocratic TRA head Shehadeh resigned in disgust (Shehadeh’s personality and political disposition is remarkably similar to Ziad Baroud).
Hariri/Siniora provide political backing and will reap the profit; Rifi provides enforcement; and Youssef holds the fort. Aoun/Bassile provide the political backing and will reap the profit; Nahhas, OTV, and the ISF Embassy division (this division swears allegiance to the FPM?) provides the enforcement; and Aoun holds the fort through tedious negotiations over cabinet formations.
In the mean time, Hezbollah established their own network, thus by-passing the squabbling over privatizations, making millions (if not billions) using its own telecommunications network, weakened the Lebanese government through depriving it of one of its greatest sources of revenue (receipts from telecommunications traffic), provided cheaper and better communications for its partisans and others, and defending its own interests with its weapons.
Sure, there is espionage stuff going on – which Future, the FPM, Hezbollah, Israel, etc. like to play up because once it is brought up Lebanese brains stop behaving rationally, but its really about who reaps the spoils from the biggest honey pot in the country.
The current squabble is over the privatization of Ogero and the possible creation of a third mobile network. Aoun and Bassile refused to play the Lebanese political game in which they would have made a deal with Hariri and received a cut (Lebanon’s system of creating consensus), and have been trying to take the candy away from Hariri/Youssef for years. Nahhas has been the most effective at dismantling the Hariri/Youssef network, which is why the relationship between the two factions has become so nasty. They don’t understand why Aoun isn’t playing by the corrupt rules of Lebanese politics with them, even though he does with almost every other faction.
Youssef hunkering down created a stalemate to be resolved in the future. Nahhas is trying to resolve the situation now, because…
Enter Najib Miqati, and the situation becomes an emergency for both FM and FPM, which is why they are behaving so badly at this precise moment. The Miqati billions were created through telecommunications. Taha Miqati was a small time construction contractor in Khaleej until he established his satellite communications up link, which created enough profit for the Miqati brothers to make their billions. Their business relationships with the Assad regime (and more specifically with Rami Makhlouf) involve telecommunications.
If Miqati gets the telecoms portfolio in the next government, Hariri will cut a deal and Youssef will get his pay out (and he’s been waiting a long, long time). Aoun and Bassile get screwed. However, Hariri has a much worse hand with which to negotiate if Youssef doesn’t have a full network and doesn’t have a large base of operations that he controls.
Miqati has the political might to privatize the telecoms networks, or at least upgrade them, but he will have to cut deals all around, including with HA, Berri, and Jumblatt. Hariri is in a much better position if Youssef is in a dominant position. Youssef can throw a wrench in the works of any future privatization deal.
Nahhas technically had the right to take his action with the equipment, but the FPM isn’t following the “no victor, no vanquished” consensus model of Lebanese politics. They made it personal, and Future is responding in a surprisingly immature manner given how much they have to lose in this.
Thank you Charles for the insightful and detailed outlay of the history and possible reasons for the “fracas”…In essence the mafia families (Hariri, Berri, Jumblat, Aoun, Hassan Nassrallah…) dictate and divvy up the spoils while the poor people suffer with the worst internet connection in the WORLD and still be happy that Gigi better their telecommunication network. A Utopian country.
Posted by danny | May 29, 2011, 9:24 amVery interesting reading
Posted by Gabriel | May 29, 2011, 9:49 amQuestion to Charles:
With such abhorrent feudal behavior by the few who end up benefit to the detriment of the largest majority of Lebanese people, the State, and the prospects for true success of the Nation, is there any chance nowadays that a grassroots movement gets organized aimed at the rejection of such tutelage and migration to a truly democratic self-government?
I recognize this is not an easy question but surely folks like you and QN are able to take a stab at a credible analysis.
Thank You.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 10:52 amTypos corrections, for the record:
- first line: benefiting (in lieu of benefit)
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 10:53 amI think again, I appeal to GK`s wisdom on all matters economics.
Put aside the mechanics of this story. What are the sources of income of the state of Lebanon.
Maybe ideally, telecom shouldn`t be privatized if it can put that much money into the government coffers.
Posted by Gabriel | May 29, 2011, 11:10 amThat is too simplistic of an explanation albeit a nicely organized argument.
Let’s not forget that it was during Siniora’s cabinet that Basil was put in the telecom ministry. If this was so sensitive with so much personal financial rewards involved for the Future Movement (as you alluded) don’t you think they would have insisted on putting some one else there?
There is more to this latest fiasco than financial rewards.
As an aside, am I the only one bemused by the fact that Nahhas was decrying the fact that Rifi was not heeding his superior’s orders (Baroud) when in fact Nahhas stormed the building in question with members of the ISF Embassy protection staff who, theoretically, are under Rifi’s command.
Posted by MM | May 29, 2011, 12:26 pmGabriel,
The following are te most relevant figures .
Total Budget Expenditures 2011: $13.129 billion
Total Budgetary Revenue 2011: $10.041 billion
Over 10 % of the revenue is from the Surplus from the telecommunication ministry is budgeted to be $ 1.195 billion.
Let me say a few words to put this figure in perspective:
The figure of just over a $1 billion is very deceiving. It is the size of this figure that has prevented the privatization of the telecomm sector. Most in Lebanon, and not only the MP’s, view this figure as net profits. Far from it. A proper accounting would reveal that this is essentially a positive cash flow but this does not account properly for the depreciation and the huge sums that are required to keep up with the technological development.
It has been my view for a long period of time that this is the reason that Lahoud, HA, FPM… refused to privatize when they were offered , if my memory serves me correctly, much less than $5 billion. Some wanted as much as $10 billion. That is nutys. Look at the most recent large transaction in this field. AT&T has offered to buy T-Mobile ( the Deutch telecomm in the US ) for $30 billion. T mobile has a very modern network and 39 million subscribers. This means that every million subscriber is being sold for less than $1 billion . The only way to find what is the real market value of the Lebanese telecomm is to hold an international auction. If that is done I very much doubt that any commercial enterprise would offer more tha $2.5-#3 billion for this rather limited and technological obsolete network.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 29, 2011, 12:34 pmMM, OK, enlighten us with your theory?
The inconsistency you mention in Nahas’ claims is right on, but then again, this is Lebanon you’re talking about. Since when do logic and reason prevail?
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 1:22 pmHere is another very relevant set of fiures that would help demonstrate that the Lebanese in general have a very inflated view of what the telecommunication secor in Lebanon is worth.
Zain, the Kuwaiti based company that operates MTC touch for the Lebanese government is the largest such firm in the ME with a footprint in Sudan, saudi, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Lebanon. They have around 38 million subscribers and reported recently corporate net profits of $251 million. The market capitalization of this company is $15 billion and is probably on the rich side. Maybe this would put to rest the unrealistic dreams that the Lebanese mobile sector is worth $10 billion.
I also believe that MM is right in suggesting that the major motive behind the recent shenanigans is not as much financial as it is political ( Karam in custody, strengthen the case for keeping Nahas, embarrass Baroud, score PR points against March 14 and Suleiman, force the hand of Mikati…)
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 29, 2011, 1:43 pmMM said:
Basil was made Minister of Telecommunications during Saniora’s second cabinet, i.e. the lame duck one which only lasted a year (plus another few months in caretaker capacity). He was appointed as part of the negotiations following the Hizbullah takeover of Beirut in May 2008. His tenure came about through the Doha Accord, which was basically a slam dunk for March 8. So you can’t argue that he was installed with the Future Movement’s happy consent… he was appointed “ghasbin 3annon”, in the same way that his coalition was given a blocking third and the 1960 electoral law was adopted, none of which was supposed to benefit M14.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | May 29, 2011, 1:47 pmThis is a very good presentation of the history of the telecom industry in Lebanon. Thanks Charles.
However, the theory proposed to explain the recent saga has a big hole in it.
Charles contends that the fight behind the saga involves the issue of privatization of the industry which has been going on for almost a decade. There was nothing hidden in that regard. The game was played in the full open between Seniora, Hariri, Berri, Jumblat and others as Charles accurately stated.
Charles further points out that privatization schemes failed because of opposition by certain parties (Jumblatt, Berri, FPM). He also asserts that individual or special group’s profiteering is the sole motif behind such squabbles which are continuing till now. I wouldn’t dispute the motif, but I would say it does not fully explain what happened.
The big hole in his theory is his assertion that Miqati has the political might to privatize the industry where others failed to do so. He also asserts that Miqati will have to achieve his goal by striking deals with the same parties which opposed privatization in the first place in addition to FM which will be out of a new cabinet if it gets formed.
“If Miqata gets the telecoms portfolio in the next government, Hariri will cut a deal and Yourself will get his pay out (and he’s been waiting a long, long time). Amount and Basil get screwed. However, Hariri has a much worse hand with which to negotiate if yourself doesn’t have a full network and doesn’t have a large base of operations that he controls.”
”Miqata has the political might to privatize the telecoms networks, or at least upgrade them, but he will have to cut deals all around, including with HA, Berry, and Jumbled. Hariri is in a much better position if you are in a dominant position. You can throw a wrench in the works of any future privatization deal.”
Assuming a new cabinet is formed, the decision to privatize telecom will have to be made in the cabinet. Does Charles perceive a possible cabinet in which Miqati can succeed in passing a decision to achieve such goal? I personally fail to see it. Miqati’s political might can best be made use of during the cabinet formation process as he is doing right now, knowing full well that he represents the only choice for those who nominated him. The most he can achieve during that phase is to insist on certain portfolios and form a government according to the constitution as he continued to claim he was/is doing until he turned off his ‘engines of consultations’ last week just before Nahhas barged into the Adliyeh building.
Posted by iceman | May 29, 2011, 2:16 pmAs ye rape, so shall ye reap…
Someday when the country is pushed off the top of the heap!
No, a Mai Lai is not some kind of martini cocktail with fizzy gin and little umbrella…
My fellow countrymen and women, I think you’ve had enough,
You are drooling something orange around your mouth.
You should be more suspicious when you are being spoon-fed,
At this rate, you will wind up raped and left for dead…
We must be in Damascus just in time for the gold rush,
Much of the real news goes untold…
The running dogs distract us with chants of Mush! Mush! Mush!
Look at those corporate media pups pulling that sled!
The virgin white snow covers the tracks,
where dogs shot from helicopters limped and bled….,
courtesy of the Infamous white House Murder INC, !!!
Posted by HK | May 29, 2011, 2:21 pmWhat’s with the weird typos, iceman, deliberate?
The cutest one is the use of “motif” for “motive.”
If intentional, it’s really cute.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 3:43 pmSo… if NOT intentional, would you kindly repost after correction. I like to read your posts but the typos this time are causing too much kibitzing on the message.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 3:44 pmHK, ya HK, hmm, what can I say? I comprehendeth not what thou expoundeth and explicateth.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 3:45 pm@QN #10
The circumstances you mentioned are true but Harriri went along the second time and installed Nahas, and the FPM, in the same position after M14 won the elections. Harriri was well capable of throwing the same hissy fit as Miqati is doing now when forming his cabinet. I grant you that Harriri is not nearly is sophisticated as Miqati but in this case this counts for him as he did not feel there was something so so valuable to protect.
HP #8,
I don’t have a theory and I am just as bewildered as the next guy or gal. But as I said before on this blog, M8 (FPM and HA) are about 100 times more sophisticated when it comes to PR, Media, and effectively communicating with the Lebanese. I think I even called on Harriri to fire all his media lieutenants because they are woeful idiots albeit loyal ones. So this may be part of the answer as Ghassan had suggested. Nahas did show up with OTV to the building.
Posted by MM | May 29, 2011, 3:46 pmHK, can you repost a translation of what you tried to say in language comprehensible to us modest folk lacking the political and secret service intellectual quotients of those in the know?
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 3:47 pmI hate to divert people away from this thread, but there’s a great must-read essay at Syria Comment.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | May 29, 2011, 3:50 pmIt’s nice rundown but I have two problems with Charles’s argument:
First, getting the Telecom ministry doesn’t mean you get its revenue. Aoun may have needed a source of wealth, but putting his man as telecom minister didn’t magically give him a revenue stream.
He would have made money if he privatized Ogero and gave it to his man, not try to dismantle it.
Second, it is immaterial if Youssef has a third mobile network up and running. He who controls the cabinet, controls the privatization. Miqati would not have to negotiate with Hariri at all. And he certainly wouldn’t cater to Youssef who is just a state employee and can be fired by cabinet.
This isn’t about the upcoming cabinet. It’s about a battle for control: Who controls activating the international internet broadband cables? Who controls providing ISPs with E1 bandwidth? Who controls the expenditures of Ogero? Who controls the equipment given by the Chinese?
If this long running battle between Ogero and the ministry has escalated recently it probably has more to do with the lack of a government rather than the anticipation of a new one.
Posted by RedLeb | May 29, 2011, 3:59 pmQN re#18
I guess what we have been talking about regarding the strategy of assad regime is bearing fruits…Turning people inwards to be sectarian. Just like Lebanese who cling back to their warlords and sectarian zaims when trouble breaks out.
In the end that had been the drive from Bashar so that they can explain away their atrocities and rationale that MB will take over and they are the only protection against civil war and bloodshed among sects in Syria.
Posted by danny | May 29, 2011, 4:46 pmThis is a nice story, and i agree with most elements, but i think some things didnt make sense or are oversimplified.
1- You say
“The transfer of telecoms to Gebran Bassile was a remarkably intelligent move by Michel Aoun. Without a financial power base of his own, Aoun needed a source of wealth to finance his politics, and he went to the same sources of money that finance a huge portion of Lebanese government operating costs: (1) foreign backers; (2) and the government owned telecommunications networks that allow Lebanese to do what we do best: talk on cell phones”.
How was that done? I mean how did MoT revenues piled up on Aoun’s desk? or bank account for that matter?
2-The embassy section of ISF is called
جهاز أمن السفارات والإدارات والمؤسسات العامة
meaning it’s part of its duty to be with Nahas, and it is responsible for public administrations in addition to diplomatic missions, not ISF Info Branch. Everyone is (intentionally?) making same mistake all over the media.
3-Then you claim “under whose tenure the esteemed technocratic TRA head Shehadeh resigned in disgust (Shehadeh’s personality and political disposition is remarkably similar to Ziad Baroud)”. First time I hear such thing. Basically he headed the TRA to do the job; i.e. privatize. When he saw this is not gonna happen, and with the intensification of debate, and Nahas hold, he just walked away.
4- How is Hizbollah making profits? It’s true there are revenues unrealized by the government b/c of its network, but they are not making commercial business from this? I havent seen anyone in Dahye having Hizbollah Network phone… “Hezbollah established their own network, thus by-passing the squabbling over privatizations, making millions (if not billions) ”
4- When 12 of HAriri’s 16 billion dollars are made out of telecoms… then Nahas is all right in fearing and rejecting any calls for privatization. Anyways there’s an element missed here: the financial crisis gave similarly a “forget-about-it-for-now” understanding for all factions since late 2008. They know they wont be able to get the 3 to 7 billions Azour was hoping for during Paris 3 talks.
6- From policy point of view, what’s the perspective of Nahas? Basically why selling if the state can upgrade, and mayyyybe sell later at a higher price? For one you make the sector more valuable, and more importantly you will tell Lebanese people that your government can provide reliable and state-of-the-art service. Hariri &Co simply ignored the sector for 15 years which got it to its point of current degradation, because simply they wanted to sell it for cheap, to themselves, so that they can reap the benefits with some tens of millions of dollars investment in infrastructure. Dont forget Hariri and Nahas are from opposing economic schools. The first is neoliberal and the second is socialist/leftist. All the Mustaqbal media war (and MP Ghazi Youssef) on Nahas all last year b/c simply Nahas opted to upgrade the sector: they cant believe that he went ahead and commissioned the G3, as well as the fiber optics!!
anyways i love this political economy, and please keep such things coming in..
Posted by Alain | May 29, 2011, 4:59 pmTwo important issues we haven’t discussed:
1) The Estonians
2) The attack on Unifil
Imagine that the 7 Estonians would have been 7 Americans or 7 Russians or 7 Germans.
Posted by AIG | May 29, 2011, 5:37 pm“Charles” has a lot of imagination, makes up a good story with lots of corruption, but no sex and too many cliches. I don’t think this will sell.
Posted by Nadim Shehadi | May 29, 2011, 5:42 pm#23 NS, you are too severe. I understand better this soap opera thanks to the historical background brought up by Charles.
However, I do wonder as it has been asked in a comment above… by which magical mecanism the telco millions can fill Aoun’s pockets? Same thing for the m-billions (!) earned by the Hizb ??
Posted by 3issa | May 29, 2011, 6:48 pmGK #7
You’re a goldmine of knowledge. Many thanks.
Posted by Gabriel | May 29, 2011, 8:37 pm#23, Nadim, what is YOUR theory? just criticize others’ ?
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 8:52 pmQN, the latest Syriacomment makes for rather tedious reading. Is there an abridged distillation somewhere? Some of us left-brained folks tire easily of verbose narratives. Thanks.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 8:57 pmHP.
The article doesn’t provide much in fresh perspectives. It regurgitates the typical stereotypes provided to date. Alawis tenaciously holding on to regime. Christians worried about their future. Sunnis anti-regime. With a sprinkle of an athiest Shia to assure us there is nothing radical about the protests.
Its well written and well delivered. But there’s not much new to learn from reading it.
Posted by Gabriel | May 29, 2011, 9:10 pmThanks, Gabe! You’re hired!
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 9:14 pmHP & Gaby,
I did read the whole thing on SC. It was rather long but very instructive and sad at the same time. Brought back sad memories of how things evolved in Lebanon back in ’75, how people changed quickly, and how rationality and compassion became victims on a grand scale.
Posted by Ras Beirut | May 29, 2011, 10:06 pmGK posted this before and it was indeed quite moving and perhaps appropriate for a pause at this time. The link is below. The delivery part is from 3:04 to 13:15 so you can skip before and after if you like.
Before putting the link, a general comment.
I heard PM Netanyahu’s speech before the joint session of Congress at the beginning of the week that just ended. What remarkable command of the language, body language, and messaging. Unless and until there are spokespersons in the Arab world capable of matching and exceeding this kind of “interface,” along, of course with the genuine messaging and positioning against the bad parts and elements in the extremist groups, then alas, the saga of Arab defeat will continue. It’s really THAT simple!
There were earlier comments, maybe in previous posts, that in Lebanon in particular, the past yearning by some to reject an Arab identity and espouse a European satellite positioning was superseded by events and attitude. Maybe so, but as long as extremist groups and religious fanaticism that some claim must be part of the nation-state are rejected categorically, such yearning is not only present, but fully validated as an antidote to such extremism.
Sure, the romantic idealization of Arabism and its honor and glory as depicted in the video below is quite inspiring and attractive, but as long as the reality betrays the innate fanaticism of the few that spoils it for the many, it will remain a dream, unattainable. Let’s hope for the best, and in the meantime, as GK advised us when he first posted this video, just enjoy it without any political or reality context.
Again, the kernel of this is 3:04 to 13:15
Enjoy
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 11:00 pmHere’s an example of the kind of discourse and competence direly lacking from the Arab side: they are few and far in-between. More is needed.
http://inthearena.blogs.cnn.com/category/hanan-ashrawi/
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 11:08 pmOne last link. The smartest political analyst in the world: Fareed Zakaria
http://inthearena.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/26/zakaria-history-will-pass-netanyahu-by/
All hardliners will become commas in history, not just Netanyahu. Ditto for those who dismiss the legitimate National aspirations of the Palestinian people.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 11:14 pmHP @ 31, there is a better solution than the one proposed. Kick the US completely out of the Arab World.
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 12:13 am#34
The US ain’t the problem. Try self reflection.
Posted by maverick | May 30, 2011, 2:27 amQN#18, I fully agree. The account gives a compassionate AND holistic view of a very complex situation. That is not easy to achieve in less than, lets say, 200 pages. So you guys complaining about the text being too long…come on,I know we are exiting the Gutenberg Galaxy, but I’m pretty sure that, even deep into the 21st century, SOME people will have to be able to read more than 200 lines in one go…
As for the account lacking novelty, alas, when the bottom of the story is human nature at play in war, the only innovation you can add is in the form, since, apparently, the substance of that old story has not changed much, Gutenberg and Internet Galaxies not withstanding, in the past thousands of years.
Posted by mj | May 30, 2011, 3:28 amwhat that tale at the SC is supposed to mean?
The protests should stop because of fear of sectarism or that the protests are not the problem since 40 years of dictatorship didn`t eliminate it and democracy is a better way to deal with it?
Alas Syria regim is very good in sectarism just check Lebanon and Iraq.
Posted by Alberto | May 30, 2011, 4:16 amI have a question for RedLeb (and Charles, if he ever returns):
Why are there so many different telecom organs? Why do we need a ministry, plus Ogero, plus the TRA? And why is Ogero being transformed into “Liban Telecom”?
Posted by Qifa Nabki | May 30, 2011, 6:51 am…اشرف الشرفاء هو الوزير شربل نحاس
Posted by HK | May 30, 2011, 7:08 amIt is clear that the trgicomedy of the Telecom debacle will continue occupying main stage for a while.
Gen Rifi has obviously failed to carry an order by a superior, and if some of the press reports are accurate he even refused to obey an order , issued by the President of the republic, to evacuate the infamous second floor. That much is known to be true but Gen Rifi does not appear to be very worried about this because of extenuating circumstances. He seems to be hinting indirectly at principle IV of Nuremburg:
“”The fact that a person acted pursuant to order of his Government or of a superior does not relieve him from responsibility under international law, provided a moral choice was in fact possible to him.”
I am not a lawyer and so I raise the question of whether Nuremburg principles are applicable since Gen Rifi can be considered to be a military officer?
The other protagonist, minister Nahas, appears not to have broken the laws in this case but his motives are very much suspect. Its all about the timing. Did he approve the vacation of Yousef in order to get him out of the way? He does not seem to have a reason for dismantling the equipment besides the fact that he could. If he and others have known about this equipment for years and if the equipment is allegedly misused , which he cannot prove, then could he have used a less confrontational procedure? What was the urgency of conducting an “I gotcha” operation?
In the final analysis such a string of events would not take place except in an environment that is rife with corruption, mistrust and petty attempts to set up and protect fiefdoms. These theatrics would not take place except in a Tower of Babel cabinet. This debacle might still serve a useful purpose if it would lead to restoration of the traditional one colour cabinets.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 30, 2011, 7:24 am#35 and HP,
A must read for the doubters,
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/who-cares-in-the-middle-east-what-obama-says-2290761.html
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 7:32 amThe Ministry is the umbrella organization while OGERO is a relic of Radio Orient ( The young do not remember Radio Orient
)
Home About History
O.G.E.R.O (Organisme de Gestion et d’Exploitation de l’ex-société Radio-Orient) was created to run the installation of the previously established Franco-Lebanese Radio-Orient company.
Here are the major dates in O.G.E.R.O’s evolution to it’s status today as a Telecom Operator.
December 28th, 1972
O.G.E.R.O was founded according to the law number 21/72
January 15th, 1975
By decree number 9519 the organization was asked to administer and run the existing computer on behalf of the Maintenance and Exploitation Directorate at the Ministry of Telecommunications (MoT*)
Ministry of Telecommunications, formerly known as Ministry of Post and Telecommunications (MPT) .
September 5th, 1994
By decree number 5613 the duties of maintenance for the MoT preexisting facilities were handed over to O.G.E.R.O in the frame of a five-year plan aiming to the installation of one million new phone lines to be followed again by another million in a second phase.
As for the TRA it is supposed to act as the regulator, such as the FCC.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 30, 2011, 7:32 amAbstracting from the politics for a moment, Lebanon’s IT sector is in a regulatory time-warp which has deprived the country of grasping a huge potential opportunity to expand the services industry and generate new stream of direct and indirect tax revenue for the government. Most countries (even Syria finally before the latest events)adopted the system of empowering the regulator to issue licences years ago. In Lebanon the process stalled in the Lahoud era. What you have now is an overpriced and underinvested sector delivering a slice of revenue to the telecoms ministry, which is refusing to hand over any of these funds to the finance ministry.
You also have the oddity of the ITU putting Lebanese mobile-phone penetration at under 50% (behind Syria and Sudan) and with the sector showing the lowest compound annual growth rate in the Middle East between 2004 and 2009 (ITU presumably doesn’t include Hizballah’s network).
Posted by EIU | May 30, 2011, 8:02 amCan someone dig up a good backgrounder for us on this topic? Surely The Executive magazine has written something about telecoms in the past couple months?
Thanks EIU. If you had to advise a hypothetical Miqati govt about how to reform this sector, what would you suggest?
Posted by Qifa Nabki | May 30, 2011, 8:23 amEIU,
It is true that Lebanon has a relatively low penetration by mobile phones but things are not as bad as you suggest.
The most recent figures show a penetration ratio of 64.4% for Lebanon and Syria is under 50%.
The IYU figures for 2009 ( they have not published the 2010 yet) are the following:
Lebanon…2,400,000
Syria…..9,900,000
But as you well know Syria has a population that is more than 5 times larger than that of Lebanon. The status of the technology in Lebanon is shameful but when we want to use statistics it is important to use the correct figures.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 30, 2011, 8:30 amHere’s where Lebanon ranks in Broadband speed/downloads…DEAD LAST in the world. Why talk about an IT sector that is from the dark ages lol…
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=247656
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 8:35 amGreat Post,
Recent spanish elections showed that voters are not afraid by corruption and keep voting and following their leaders even if corrupted. Lebanese politics follow the same scheme, and money is an abstract element. When will we react ?
Posted by oum | May 30, 2011, 8:36 amPoint taken, Ghassan. I was referring to the figures for 2008 (which had Lebanese penetration at 34%). The 2009 figures are better (56.6%), but still near the bottom of the regional rankings.
QN — I guess Miqati could appoint Kamal Shehadeh as minister, but I doubt that he would be able to do much. The lack of progress over the last decade and more means that there is a huge amount of ground to make up.
Posted by EIU | May 30, 2011, 9:08 amPS. The discrepancy in the ITU figures arises from the fact that they used their own estimate for 2008 but sourced the 2009 statistics to the Ministry of Telecommunications.
Posted by EIU | May 30, 2011, 9:12 amAlain and Issa,
I work wiht one of the operators so I can techincally tell you how having a private network can make million/billion even if no person in dahyeh has a “Hizbollah Network phone”.
For more info you can Google search for the following telecom terms: telecom + Grey routes / Arbitrage / Re-origination / Leaky PBX
Here is one example: You build a network, with switching equipment and get international links to outside Lebanon.
You make agreements with operators outside of Lebanon to route traffic calls to Lebanon through your network instead of the official networks. (Either by wasta in corrupt countries or by offering prices a bit lower than the official operators give since you won’t have to pay taxes)
You buy many local lines (land lines and mobile) with a clir subscription (don’t show caller’s number).
When someone wants to make an international call to Lebanon, the call gets routed through your switches so YOU get paid a high international switching tariff, then you make a local call from your local lines and connect both calls, thus paying a small local fee on each international call you route.
That why for a few years most of international calls reaching us would display “number withheld” even if you had caller id.
For bonus points, at the end of the month you don’t even pay your bill to the Landline or mobile operator either because you have wasta or because you keep canceling old unpaid cards and getting new ones.
Posted by telecom | May 30, 2011, 9:43 amQN,
We are in a state of transition from our current setup of Ministry + Ogero, into the new privatized sector of Ministry + Liban Telecom + TRA.
Law 431, issued in 2002, decreed that two entities will be created: the Telecommunication Regulatory Authority and Liban Telecom.
Regulation of internet services will shift from the Ministry to TRA. The TRA will set standards and issue licenses (and will in fact be funded through license fees).
The cabinet will retain its exclusive right to issue phone and mobile licenses.
Liban Telecom is to be a shareholding company, with all stock initially owned by the state.
All the telecom networks now owned by the state will shift to Liban Telecom. This includes the phone networks and Ogero DSL service. The two mobile companies stay with the state, but Liban Telecom is a licensed mobile operator.
I think the international phone and internet interconnects go to Liban Telecom, but I’m not sure.
Ogero is dissolved one year after Liban Telecom goes live. Liban Telecom has exclusive monopoly over phone and international internet interconnect for five years, at most.
Employees in the Ministry and Ogero are transferred to the TRA or Liban Telecom as necessary (if the employee does not concur, they can resign with full benefits).
Liban Telecom is to be privatized within two years of its formation by selling at most 40% of its shares to a private investor. The rest of the shares may be sold in due course via cabinet decrees.
Posted by RedLeb | May 30, 2011, 10:23 amtelecom;
WOW!!! I guess that’s the answer to the “resistance clan’s” queries and doubts .
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 10:51 am#50 telecom
I think you just illuminated one (I am sure of many) uses for the “Resistance Telecom Network” RTN for short.
Guess which group of our brethren are very active in the discount long distance calling industry in Latin America, USA, and Canada?
Knowing that the clean dollar bill tap out of Iran might run dry at some point then there is no better alternative than being self sufficient financially. However, until HA starts manufacturing its own weapons then there is no alternative than the brotherly regime in Syria…and human rights be damned to those pesky Sunnis according to SHN.
Posted by MM | May 30, 2011, 10:56 amIs this the “Wezarat Al Barq Wal Bareed” everyone is talking about?
Ministry of Lightning!!
Posted by V | May 30, 2011, 11:10 am3issa meet the magician telecom.
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 11:14 amIceman #41
Fisk’s article is interesting and well written. Two points:
- He condemns Saudi Arabia. Do you agree?
- He is a critic. He offers criticism but no solution. Criticism is easy. Solutions are not. Obama, in my opinion, is doing the very best anyone could with the cards he has to play with. Want to change the cards? See my posts 31, 32, 33: Arabs must take responsibility and provide the narrative and “interface” to claim the rights they say are theirs. So far, collectively, they get a Zero (to be generous) as a grade. Sure, there are few exceptions, like Hanan Ashrawi, but as I said, these are few and far between.
Here’s an idea, you, Iceman, could be such a voice. But you need to address a wider audience and progress from criticism to crisp solutions to be offered and a fact-based persuasive use of history, not to mention a definition of a way forward respecting all people and all religions. The floor is yours if so you chose. You certainly have the intellect and the abilities.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 11:20 amMM #53,
Hezballah don’t need Syria to transport weapons into Lebanon. They own the Port and the Airport.
Posted by R2D2 | May 30, 2011, 12:10 pmMJ#36
Don’t misunderstand. I loved the account, and I think it’s a must-read.
Posted by Gabriel | May 30, 2011, 12:14 pm@36, mj,
I don’t mind reading long narratives when they capture attention, but is it just me or was that narrative a little tedious to follow, particularly for folks who are somewhat interested but not deep into every detail and thought?
Anyway, I plead guilty for the one who raised the length issue on that SC post. I guess I should have taken that course in speed reading, and I guess it’s never too late.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 12:30 pmOK, I think I know what my problem was and is: there is no thesis at the beginning of the text, no conclusion, but just plain data thrown at the reader. We are not all experts and deep into collecting and analyzing such data. So…, hence… my request for someone to provide a distillation. I think that was a legitimate request and many have obliged. Maybe you could too, mj?
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 12:32 pmlol that is an answer ! very smart mecanism indeed
Posted by 3issa | May 30, 2011, 12:45 pmHP,
Please do not take speed reading and if you do keep it to yourself:-)
I am old enough to remember the weekly columns of Norman Mailer in The Village Voice.
Each of them started by pleading with the readers to pay him the courtesy of skipping the column if they intended to speed read.
Posted by ghassan karam | May 30, 2011, 1:04 pmHP, #59,60
I was trying to point out the fact that the necessary linearity (I’m maybe inventing the word)of a printed text makes it difficult to describe a complex situation in a few sentences. The “Syria in Fragments: Divided Minds, Divided Lives,” by an American in Syria” account at SC is not a Thesis/Antithesis/Synthesis thing. I took it more as a snapshot of a moment in that society, where you can look at different parts of the picture with no necessary internal order between the paragraphs. (I would have, though, change the order in some words in the title: I’d have said: “different lives, different minds”, in that order.
I didn’t go back to the entire text. I just kept my first feeling of empathy
while I was reading the text this morning, holding my breath. I felt that anybody having lived trough the sheer hatred inspired by fear would read the text easily.
Short of the distillation you asked, I hope this enlightens you somehow on my remarks.
Posted by mj | May 30, 2011, 1:44 pm# 50,
I wish and hope that what you are saying is true. I want Hezbollah to be doing that and more in order to finance their Resistance and Defense of Lebanon. Hezbollah deserves that money more than the crooked and utterly corrupt Lebanese state. I hope that Hezbollah is that creative but I have my doubts about this expose… Hezbollah’s Fiber-optic network is strictly used in the Resistance/defense and organizational stratagem. Period
Posted by HK | May 30, 2011, 1:59 pmHP,
You are supposed to be an avid reader of SC… so why the issue now? It is a story about a man/woman who is giving you changing attitudes under fear and duress…People are scared into survival mode and are clutching to “their own kind” a la Lebanese style. Primitive and crude.
BTW I suggest you copy and paste into word and make the fonts larger and read it…
HK, Isn’t “resistance” getting enough $$$$ from the drug trade?
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 2:08 pmSome commenters at SC already noticed that the main post is a piece of fiction and may not be an accurate representation of reality. Some even suggested the name of the author who may have written it in collaboration with Joshua of course. So we have to go back and question Joshua’s motives.
I read the long post and tend to agree with those commenters.
HP,
The solution is as mention in 34 regardless of who is condemning who.
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 2:53 pmOpening the Resistance’ Network to outsiders in a NO, NO! It will be anathema to inviting the enemy home…
These things should not be a surprise to believers, the Godless will get more wicked and the righteous more Holy. God’s wrath will be pored out on all who transgress and salvation will come to those who fear Him, and Hezbollah will be ever present & victorious.
Posted by HK | May 30, 2011, 3:05 pmIce. Even if it sounds fictional isn’t this the aim of Bashar and what he wants the world to believe…that he is the only saviour(ask Alex)
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 3:13 pmtelecom,
The problem with your business plan is that it really relies on an international line and not a local network. Since you’re hoping unto the local (state-owned) phone and mobile network anyway, why build your own local loop. Just connect your international line straight into the state network and you’re done. There would be no need to stretch a costly fiber-optic line from Dahyieh to Nabatieh.
In fact, why go through the hassle of laying down an undersea cable? Renting one of those ships that unwind sea cables is quite traceable. Plus the hassle of setting up a Hizb branch in the other country to protect and secure the foreign interconnect, only to have the Israelis cut your under-sea line in a nano-second as their submarines would discover it immediately.
Much easier to just use the state internet network to to route Voice-Over-IP international phone calls in an internationally legal (but locally illegal) manner. Of course, that made sense a decade ago, but now with Skype, Google Chat, Apple FaceTime and a dozen other (free) international calling services, your business model has been made obsolete.
It’s been obvious to every military analyst that reviewed the 2006 war that Hizballah’s fiber optic network was essential in maintaining command and control throughout the fight. You do not link up such an vital asset to the international phone network where it can be open to hacking, interference, or eavesdropping to make a quick buck.
Posted by RedLeb | May 30, 2011, 3:14 pm#68
Then what you said could be Joshua’s motive or spin on the events – typical Baathist bull.
Sorry for brevity I am posting from mobile.
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 3:23 pmWho still makes international calls on mobile phones ?
Isn’t Skype all the hype ?!
Posted by R2D2 | May 30, 2011, 4:01 pmdanny, I’m glad that you see me belonging to those fearless and righteous gladiators always up to protect the homeland.
I consider it as a recognition.
Posted by 3issa | May 30, 2011, 5:11 pmRedLeb, HK, MM and others,
I am not arguing if Hizballah was doing it or not or if they deserve the money or not or if they dare connect their networks to international links or not. Those who love Hezbollah will say “they did it”, those who hate them will say “no way”, I know better about online conversations than to argue either way. My mistake was quoting the original question that mentioned Hizbollah and dahyeh.
I was just trying to explain to those who asked how you could make millions in Lebanon if you own a private telecom network / equipment without needing to sell lines to subscribers, because it is not obvious how to technically do that.
I can assure you I did not come up with the business plan, wish I was so clever
“someone” was doing it, i.e. international traffic was being routed outside of our international lines into local lines into our network for years.
I also know that naive engineers were investigating the issue technically and they were told by people higher up the chain to drop it.
Any more info I would give on the issue would be things “I heard” and “people were saying” and would just needlessly add heat to the debate without adding any substantial info so I totally did not mention it
Posted by telecom | May 30, 2011, 5:40 pmR2D2,
I am certain you are aware of what I posted above @46…If you don’t have decent Broadband (ooops…I meant if your internet is worse than Sudan or Afghanistan)…Skype will not be the hype dude!
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 5:46 pmThanks, mj, GK, Iceman. I appreciate your attention and feedback.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 5:59 pmIceman, your proposed solution leaves gaps. For example, without US intervention, Saddam Hussein would have occupied Kuwait and made it into an Iraqi province, and from that vantage point threatened Saudi Arabia. Do you approve of that?
Or, like Osama Bin Laden claimed, do you think that he, Osama, would have provided the Saudis with the right deterrent?
You also have not addressed my question on whether you concur with Fisk in his condemnation of the Saudi regime.
I’m not seeking to give you a hard time but just to clarify where the consistency is in your arguments and if indeed you have a way to reconcile those arguments with the questions I pose.
and thanks in advance.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 6:01 pmstrange indeed, when resistance armies or home front protectors use more aggression and brutality towards their own in crushing dissent than they use against their arch enemies.
Cannot you see through the broboganda?
Posted by maverick | May 30, 2011, 6:12 pmTelecom #73,
I have no doubt that you are technologically more savvy about this issue than I am but isn’t the reason for the scheme that you describe due to the greed of the Lebanese authorities. The only reason that I can think of for others not to send their traffic through the official channels is the excessive rates that are being charged.
I am not a believer that the martket is always right but this is one instance where it is clear that had the government just provided adequate regulations then Skype, VOIP, low international , broadband, and G4 would have been established by the market. Even from a social equity point of view government monopoly in this case is actually an effort to balance the budget at the back of the poor by overcharging them and by providing inefficient and mediocre service.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 30, 2011, 6:49 pmHP 76,
The points that you raise are no longer relevant. There is no need for the Saudis to delay the inevitable. They already recognized over a decade ago that their relationship with the US has become a liability on them and began taking measures to dowgrade it. But they now, in light of recent revelations, should proceed in that direction more aggressively. Saudi Arabia does not need protection from any one.
The same should be pursued by other countries in particular those that were recently ‘liberated’.
Condemning or not condemning is also irrelevant to the topic.
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 9:35 pmHazem Saghieh has a very good article about Syria,
http://www.alarabiya.net/views/2011/05/31/151191.html
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 9:39 pmtelecom.
Thank you
for this:
….”Re-origination / Leaky PBX”…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_telecommunications_routes
and this:
“I also know that naive engineers were investigating the issue technically and they were told by people higher up the chain to drop it.”
Nahhas would no doubt like to chat with the curious naifs referenced above..
Did Ogero, perchance, provide the STL “investigation” with telecom data?
Posted by lally | May 30, 2011, 10:00 pmLally… Wow..
You really are quite desperate to find some evidence that the STL is compromised.
Posted by Gabriel | May 30, 2011, 10:21 pmHP…
If you don’t mind me asking…
When you ask questions as you do in #56, do you ask them out of real curiosity?
And don’t you already know the answers to those questions? Are you holding out hope that the obvious answers are somehow untrue?
Posted by Gabriel | May 30, 2011, 11:59 pmCouldn’t help yourself could you Gabez? lol
Posted by maverick | May 31, 2011, 12:12 amLoL
Tab ya 3ame, I held out long enough, didn’t I
. Can’t I say that I’m improving little by little.
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 12:23 amGaby.
Au contraire, los desperados are those still proclaiming the virginal & unsullied nature of the STL despite the stinking piles of evidence to the contrary…
Posted by lally | May 31, 2011, 12:40 amHP,
Are you still waiting…?
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 7:25 amUnder HK’s Radar
HK,
I’m not sure when “Murder Inc.” last met with the “thug” Assad Jr., but it looks like Assad’s pal Nasrallah met with him a few days ago:
http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/7216-report-nasrallah-has-held-several-meetings-with-assad-over-reforms
Who do you think is closer to the Syrian thug now, Nasrallah or “Murder Inc.”?
Posted by Akbar Palace | May 31, 2011, 7:44 amSorry, I have been busy and unable to post for a bit, but I notice that you are not speaking hebrew in Beirut. A “thank you” to The Resistance is therefore in order.
Posted by dontgetit | May 31, 2011, 9:00 amThe real “Ustaz” has finally defined himself and the resulting image is not flattering at all. The self described world class parliamentarian and the speaker of the Lebanese chamber of deputies who has spared no effort to keep the doors of the Lebanese legislature closed speaks of the movement that ended a 30 year collective nightmare as a movement that took the country backward 60 years.
The speaker has shown again how duplicitous, irresponsible,inept and divisive he is. He clearly does not desreve the office that he holds , an office that is expected to help guard sovereignty and personal freedom. Instead the speaker supports authoritarianism, dictatorship, totalitarian regimes.
Isn’t it about time that enough MP’s take measures to strip the speaker of the office that he has denigrated and that he clearly cannot fulfill its mission. I believe that article 44 section 3 of the Lebanese constitution provides a mechanism for that. Berri must go.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 31, 2011, 12:06 pmGK,
Nabih Berri is a duplicitous son of bitch. He has been like that all his political life. He instantly kneels to pressure, wherever it comes from… He certainly is not a “principled” man! That’s his legacy
Posted by HK | May 31, 2011, 12:52 pmLally,
I am sure that if there is something of a technical nature regarding leaky PBXs and re-origination, and other technical mumbo-jumbo… Nahas would have been all over it 7-8 months ago.
But he wasn’t, so I think it’s safe to say that there is likely no relation between leaky PBXs and STL, and hence no reason to thank telecom for the inside info.
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 1:11 pmAn interesting read on the current government formation deadlock.
I have to say, I fully agree with the author that M14 would be committing suicide if it once again comes to the rescue of M8 and provides it some kind of cover.
http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=276414
(PS: QN, remember my opinion on the matter last week, where I strongly disagreed with your assessment of the cabinet issue).
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 1:38 pmBV,
QN has been wrong before.
GK
Yes Berri did say that. But I loved the quip of Samir Geagea:”Cedar Revolution Set Berri, his Allies Back 60 Years”…
What really do you expect from a Master thief and a total whore. Him & his brother in arms Nassrallah have a different compass than you. They are divine…
HK now you should follow a real statesman like DSG and you might be enlightened from the fog of the Gunja…
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 1:53 pmHazem al-Amin is clear from the beginning of his article that it is based on rumours. His reasoning for not accepting any such offer is wrong, however.
First, there is no such constant as having a slight majority ALWAYS forming a government. Very often national unity governmsnts are formed for reasons and they do produce results.
Secondly you do not reject an offer just to make your foe lose, especially if it is framed in such narrative as the need to form a national salvation government.
If such an offer materializes a counter-offer should be made which would not entail a political suicide on the part of March 14. They shoud simply walk the walk and do as they said they want to do on March 13. They should say we would join a government under an agreement to disarm all the militias before the governmnet is sworn in.
After all the previous governments failed because of the ARMS of HA.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 2:36 pmHere I disagree. Iceman.
Obviously, this is all speculation. We don’t know if such an offer is made or will ever be made.
I realize that in many countries “coalition” governments (not so much national unity governments) are common.
I think in the specific case of Lebanon, in the specific current context, it would be a bad idea.
It’s not so much about making your foe lose as it is about a style of government and politics.
When M8 has gone above and beyond in torpedoing national unity governments and has repeatedly blamed M14 for all the problems, and accused them of being corrupt and of being traitors, they’ve already been sitting there scoring political points against you with their constituents and the electoral at large.
This is the first time in recent history where M14 has had a chance of saying “Well, if you guys are so great, and we were the problem all along, show us what you can do.”
It is important for M14′s survival (like it or not) to score this point and not keep being a patsy to M8 (which is what they have been so far).
There is absolutely NO POINT in having your own movement, your own political party, or your own “side” if you don’t stand for anything, and if you keep providing M8 cover. Might as well rename themselves M8.
The whole point of having 2 “sides” is for there to be a winner and a loser, and in a true democracy (which Lebanon is not), the state and the citizen stand to benefit from such a rivalry and accountability.
It would really do Americans no favors if the Democrats – say – were to roll over for the Republicans every time they get bullied. Who’d hold the government accountable? What would each party run on in the next elections (thus providing accountability)? The whole point of a political system is to hold the other side accountable by saying “We can do better than you.” or “You failed here, here and here.”
Once you turn one party into a subservient to the other party, you mess up the entire dynamics of any political system based on accountability. What’s the point of even having an M14 if M8 gets to have their way no matter what?
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 3:02 pmI cannot elaborate as usual this time of daym. But, BV, I would still disagree. If, by some magic, HA agrees to disarm then M14 would have exceeded expectations. If HA does not agree then it would lose more and M14 would maintain same status.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 3:30 pmI cannot elaborate as usual this time of daym. But, BV, I would still disagree. If, by some magic, HA agrees to disarm then M14 would have exceeded expectations. If HA does not agree then it would lose more and M14 would maintain same status.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 3:30 pmThe anniversary of PM Rashid Karame’s assassination by the thug in Chief Samir Geagea, the personal representative of Satan on earth, who has assassinated thousands of people in cold blood, dumping their bodies at sea in 86. Today, he is a mere Trojan horse and the head of a thuggish CIA/MOSSAD proxy Militia. Samir Geagea on the anniversary of the assassination of former premier Rashid Karame, who was assassinated by Samir Geagea, according to the sentence of the legal council. Samir Geagea is rotten scum on earth and a despicable creature. He also assassinated Dany Chamoun and his family in cold blood and many many more people, including dozens of Lebanese Army officers and troops.
Posted by HK | May 31, 2011, 3:50 pmHk,
Coming from hobeika worshipper you are scoring points here. Geagea was convicted by the cnagaroo mukhabarati regime. He was incarcerated for eleven years on inuendo that you so freely inundate us with daily. If there is to be a court of justice; all warlords should pay for their misdeeds. Alas the butcher of Sabra & Shatilla is gone forever courtesy of his buddies in Damascus. He met his maker but it is obvious the stench is left behind to pollute us.
BV, I agree with you and Ice. There has to be a comprehensive set of principles and put forward by the M14 before even entertaining a joint venture… Disarming is not the answer. It has to be within the framework a new national pact whereas the state is the only power…
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 4:03 pmA good article by an eyewitness reporter from Syria.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2011/05/correspondents_diary_homs
QN…Still waiting for a write up on HA…Try to get into SHN’s head and give us some scenarios…
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 4:48 pmIceman,
First off, “If HA ever disarms by magic” is a non-starter to any conversation.
You and I both know that is never going to happen. So basing any argument on that hypothesis is moot.
I don’t quite see your point about M14 “Maintaining status”. Well, it makes sense if by “status” you mean “remaining subservient to M8″. Which means every future election and every future cabinet formation will suffer from the same imbalance of M8 getting their way (even if M14 wins elections) and being able to sabotage anything M14 may want to do.
Basically, your choices are now reduced to:
A) M14 election victory: National unity cabinet with M8 reserving the right to resign and bring down the government.
or
B) M8 election victory: No cabinet (to avoid international isolation) or a cabinet of patsies (see A).
So….yeah. I guess M14 gets to maintain their status of being idiots…
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 5:20 pmA few points:
(1) This “unity” government business is absurd (and not because M14 is selling out or it’s bad for their rep, or bla bla). Elections finish. Winners select the cabinet, the others sit in opposition in parliament. This should not be quantum physics.
(2) I think it is high time that the discussion veers into predictions of future developments. Those Saudi/Palestine/HA/STL discussions that keep happening (and the little Iceman mockeries are a side-show). But the core points are still quite relevant. What impact will the new regional orders have on Lebanon and what happens there?
- Will regime change in Syria change the dynamics on the Lebanese scene? For example, become less favorable to HA?
- Will there be pressure to disarm HA? How does that fit in with the Palestine question? What happens if in the border regions, we have greater “Palestinian” activity over the next few years? Will there be a political re-alignment happening in Lebanon? What/Where are the fault-lines?
- Will there ever be broad global views of this nature being discussed by the Lebanese themselves to help better weather future storms? Or will the Lebanese continue to be… well… Lebanese?
- If the Palestinians reclaim the “Muqawama”-crown and get broad support from a new regime in Syria, etc. Will HA trade their weapons for Bouquets of Roses to throw at the Israelis?
- Are these questions stupid? Interesting?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 6:00 pmThese questions are stupid…
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 6:08 pmYou just can’t take anything seriously anymore.
if it didn’t hurt so much, it would be one big joke. Even flip flopping Jumbo is over it.Lol.
Nas is giving reform advice to Assad.WTF????
political discourse between Pols is back to media outlets and live debates with the usual personal attacks and screams.The country is on the brink of collapse….meanwhile Assad gives amnesty out of the kindness of his heart.
Don’t ask too many detailed questions….everything is found in the bleeding obvious.
Posted by maverick | May 31, 2011, 6:19 pmHK… Question for you.
You come here often and keep singing the Praises of Hezbollah. At the same time, you’re a fan of Hobeika.
It is with complete ignorance I ask the following question, as really I am in no position to assess the correctness of what I ask.
(1) What was Hobeika’s feelings about HA? And does it agree with yours?
(2) With reference to his murder, as documented here:
http://www.meforum.org/meib/articles/0201_l1.htm
What are your feelings about the following statement:
It seems HA did not view Hobeika very favorably. Is this in fact true? Or Untrue? And if they didn’t look favorably upon a man you consider highly honorable (from what I gather), how does that translate to the the great honor you keep showering HA with?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 6:19 pmBV,
We know all this discussion is based on rumour. It is no more than an exercise. But it is worthy for lack of other topics unless we switch back to Syria.
Here’s where your solution fails. Regardless if you have a national unity or one color government’ you do not have a sovereign and functioning state as long as you have paramilitary organizations operating independently.
If M8 makes the offer and M14 refuses just to make M8 appear as losers there will be a backlash against M14 which will make them look as obstructionists. If M14 makes the counter offer it will make them look serious and holding on to principles even if as we know HA will most likely not agree. M14 in this case would have declined responsibly. As danny pointed out may also open the gates for some discussions on a new pact.
(And there is a big idiot here who keeps shaking his tail just like the tail equiped primates)
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 6:39 pmIceman#107
If you don’t mind me asking: You have at least 2 nephews at the AUB. In all likelihood, your age is over 40.
Why do you use language here more fitting for primary school children?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 6:59 pmThis is a most bizarre statement.
M8 ostensibly considers themselves the “Majority”.
What’s this non-sense about a Majority unable to form a government.
It is about as absurd as Stephen Harper crawling back to Ignatieff to ask him to offer up some Liberals for government posts.
M8 is now the ruling party. They should choose a cabinet. As per #103, this should not be quantum science.
Nor, if M14 “declines” to help out, should they be seen as “obstructionists”. This is absurd.
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 7:06 pmGK @ 90
Amen to that! i pray for the day we see this grand larcenist thug Berri behind bars but we know this isn’t going to happen, we have M14 to thank for bringing him back in when they had the majority.
Am surprised HK didn’t accuse Berri of being a CIA agent
Posted by V | May 31, 2011, 7:18 pmAs others pointed out before me, Iceman, your logic is complete nonesense. How can a minority be “obstructing” anything if M8 fails on to form a government on their own?
Not to mention that I don’t get why you used the words “your solution” to describe my comment.
I was not offering any kind of solution to anything.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 7:21 pmBV,
So it is not your solution. What difference does it make? I am referring to one color vs national unity government. Whoever solution it may happen to be. These governments are sometimes necessary. We do not really have majority and minority governments at the moment. We have a hung parliement with disparate factions trying to reach a deal. How do you want to get out of this dilemma?
M8 can make an offer to M14 and M14 can refuse for no reason if you want and the country can remain without a government for another year. Is that what you want? Who fails in this case? This is the logic of the absurd.
…….
Very good you knew who you are Gabriel now. So behave yourself if you want to gain respect.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 7:35 pmQN,
Thank you for publishing my comment, and further more for editing it before posting it to the blog.
Apologies for my tardy response. I was on holiday and did not access the internet over the weekend.
Excellent questions and comments from HP, MM, Iceman, RedLeb, R2D2, Gabriel, EIU, and many others. I hope to respond to them later.
Thanks to the esteemed GK for his history of OGERO (#42), and to telecom #50 for explaining one of the many ways a person/corporation can make money through private telephony.
An important note about Miqati’s role is that his company Investcom, alongside France Telecom, built a significant chunk of Lebanon’s mobile network when they received in 1994. Investcom, then under the helm of Taha’s son Azmi, did the same thing again in 2000 in Syria.
I’m disheartened by Nadim Shehadi’s comment (#23), as he has the best access possible to one of the most significant actors involved. I wrote my comment in sensationalist comment form and picked and chose data to create a narrative following the norms of the debate going on in the Lebanese press, hence the structure is rather teleological rather than all-encompassing. I would love to see a thorough examination of this subject in something other than the partisan and sensationalist Lebanese press, however the surfeit of academics, think tanks, and policy institutes have yet to provide us with one.
Posted by Charles | May 31, 2011, 7:39 pmBV…
Since I have the mental faculties of a baboon (?!
)… could you give me a crash course of why it’s so difficult to form a government?
- Are M14 members of parliament somehow vetoing the selection of individuals to cabinet posts in the government? Yes or No?
- If not. How is it that M8 is having a hard time selecting people to fill up the posts in the cabinet? After all it is a coalition of parties that have agreed to fall under the same umbrella. Can they not work together to select cabinet members from amongst their people?
- If, as the very sensible Iceman suggests, M14 should predicate “helping” out (I don’t really know what that means) on a disarmament of HA (which we all know is not going to happen).. what happens next… will Lebanon still:
a) be without any governments?
b) Have a single color government selected exclusively by M8?
- If yes (M14 is stopping M8 from selecting cabinet ministers). Why are they doing so? Shouldn’t they refrain?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 8:02 pmAll the discussions so far have been about tactical matters.
I believe that the real problem of Lebanon is not GMA, SHN, SG or RH. It’s about the following fundamental problems:
1- Lack of a single vision of Lebanon. What Lebanon do we really want? What form of government, what foreign policy, what economic policies?
2- Lack of trust. Each side in Lebanon fears that the other side is out to destroy it. This is one reason why dialogue is never fruitful.
3- Each side in Lebanon tries to weaken or destroy the other side using a foreign power. This is due in part to #2, and a preemptive move to avoid being destroyed.
4- The Lebanese public, in general, is extremely immature politically. It keeps electing the same scumbags, and believing in the same conspiracy theories. Some of the reasons for this are the points mentioned above:
#1: They have no vision for a Lebanon.
#2: They believe the scumbags will protect them against against annihilation by the other side.
#3: They have evidence that the other side is trying to annihilate them by siding with “evil foreigners”
The real question is how do we get out of this vicious circle? Are we doomed to repeat the same mistakes that have been plaguing us ever since the Phoenicians city states used to quarrel and undermine each other using foreign powers? Are these problems burnt deep into our collective DNA?
Posted by Erasmus | May 31, 2011, 8:26 pmLooks like more important developments are on the horizon than Lebanon and its government.
Turkey may finally be on the verge of acting. According to rebert Fisk again, it may move into Syria gradually, creating safe havens for refugees.
خطط تركية للتوغل داخل سورية لإقامة ملاذات آمنة للاجئين السوريين
31 أيار, 2011
قالت مصادر مطلعة إن تركيا، تحسباً لتدفق موجات من اللاجئين السوريين إلى أراضيها بسبب استمرار الاضطرابات السياسية في ذلك البلد،
وضعت خططاً سرية لمنع أكراد سورية من الانتقال إلى الجانب التركي من الحدود وذلك بإقامة «ملاذات آمنة للاجئين» داخل الأراضي السورية نفسها، موضحة في الوقت نفسه أن أنقرة تشعر بالغضب من القيادة السورية التي لم تنفذ تعهدات قطعتها على نفسها بإعلان انسحاب الجيش من الشوارع.
وذكر الكاتب البريطاني روبرت فيسك في صحيفة «اندبندنت» أن جنرالات تركيا اعدوا عملية تتضمن إرسال عدد من كتائب القوات المسلحة التركية إلى داخل سورية لإقامة «مناطق آمنة» للاجئين السوريين داخل الحدود الشمالية السورية.
وذكر فيسك أن الأتراك وفقاً لتلك الخطط «مستعدون للتقدم إلى ما وراء الحدود السورية وصولاً إلى مدينة القامشلي وحتى محافظة ديرالزور لإقامة ملاذات آمنة للفارين» لمنع وصولهم إلى الأراضي التركية، وذلك إذا ما تدهورت الأوضاع الأمنية في سورية واستمرت المواجهات.
وذكر إن السلطات التركية، وبعد أن شاهدت مئات اللاجئين يتدفقون من سورية عبر الحدود الشمالية للبنان، تخشى الآن من تكرار تجربة التدفق الكبير للاجئين من أكراد العراق الذين هربوا إلى داخل حدودها في أعقاب حرب الخليج عام 1991.
وكان عشرات الآلاف من أكراد العراق قد فروا إلى داخل الحدود التركية عندما شن الرئيس العراقي السابق صدام حسين حملة ضد الأكراد عام 1991. وآنذاك قتل آلاف الأكراد العراقيين من البرد داخل المنطقة الحدودية الجبلية بين العراق وتركيا. ولم يتمكن أكراد العراق من العودة إلى أراضيهم إلا عندما أقامت الولايات المتحدة «ملاذات آمنة» لهم شمال العراق.
وأشار فيسك إلى أن الحكومة التركية «وضعت نتيجة تلك المخاوف خططاً سرية لمنع أكراد سورية من التحرك بالآلاف إلى المناطق الكردية في جنوب شرقي تركيا».
كما قال «إن تركيا غاضبة من الرئيس بشار الأسد لأنه وعدها مرتين بتنفيذ الإصلاحات والانتخابات الديموقراطية لكن فشل في الوفاء بوعوده».
وأضاف «الحكومة التركية أرسلت مرتين وفوداً إلى دمشق» وطلبت من الأسد إعلان إصلاحات للشعب السوري لطمأنته إلى جدية الوعود الإصلاحية. كما ذكر أن الرئيس الأسد قال أمام وزير الخارجية التركي أحمد داوود أوغلو، في الزيارة الثانية، أنه سيستدعي قوات الفرقة الرابعة من شوارع المدن السورية، غير انه ومع دخول الاحتجاجات أسبوعها التاسع لم ينفذ الرئيس السوري وعوده.
ويعتقد مراقبون أتراك أن الكثير من أكراد سورية لا يصدقون أن الحكومة السورية ستقدم فعلاً على إصلاحات، أو ستعطيهم الجنسية، وبالتالي يتوقعون أن يعمد الكثير من أكراد سورية إلى محاولة الهروب إلى الحدود التركية.
Syrian opposition will be holding a conference in a border town in Turkey tomorrow. New Syrian ambassador was recently appointed in Turkey by the Syrian government. He is the known Mr. Dardari who replaced Mr. Qabalan. Apparently Mr. Qabalan has become a persona non-grata in Ankara after he expressed anger about supporting MB’s by the Turkish government describing that support as equal to Syria supporting the PKK.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 8:31 pmDanny @87, still waiting and will hold QN to his pledge. Else, I’ll start another crystal seed of a middle east revolt
Gaby @83, don’t expose me wlah! Enjoy the game woo bass.
Charles, we’re waiting patiently but don’t leave us hanging. Your teaser was too good and got us all hooked. I don’t want to be singing:
wassaletna 3a niss-el-beer woo 2ta3t-el-7abl feena
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 31, 2011, 8:49 pmHP,
Is it not soooooo funny when somebody identifies himself by himself?
What explanation can you give to that?
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 9:14 pmSelf-Awareness?
Wow. It doesn’t really take much to entertain our Iceman. I’m sure glad I could be of service
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 9:25 pmIceman…
All joking aside, and if you answer this question, I promise never to tease, question or reference you directly ever again….
How old are you?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 9:28 pmYa 3ammeh, Iceman and Gabe, now I have to go read your posts carefully to figure out what you guys were arguing about… maybe I’ll do it. Still, I do think the civil debate and genuine yet polite mutual challenges of thoughts and positions is a good think. And I’m sincere in this.
As far as identifying oneself by oneself, what can I say? Each one should follow Plato’s edict articulated by Socrates’ “Know Thyself.”
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 31, 2011, 9:31 pmYou are still under probation as per comments over two months ago.
So far you keep relapsing. Which means you do not satisfy the first rule for engagement.
Promises are not satisfactory as behaviour speaks louder thyan words.
Don’t even bother.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 9:36 pmHP… Beats me, I didn’t even bring him up
. I think he got upset that I asked you why you ask him if he agrees with Fisk that the Saudi regime is an abomination.
Its either that, or you’ll need to go back to comments from 2 months ago, as apparently I’m still under probation, and the Soltan hasn’t deemed yet that I have earned his forgiveness
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 9:44 pmbahahahaha.
the Lebanese are tapped.
Posted by maverick | May 31, 2011, 9:48 pmWho needs Seinfeld when we have “Gabe on Ice” lol.
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 10:19 pmQN,
Still waiting…
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 10:19 pmPlease stop criticizing The Resistance and the Lion of Damascus. They are all that have been protecting us from Israhell and the rapacious Zionists. Without Hizbollah’s arms and Assad’s fists, the martyrs of Palestine would have no hope for justice and revenge and Beirut and Damascus would be little tel avivs.
Posted by dontgetit | May 31, 2011, 10:41 pmSome Martyrs are Holy and Some Aren’t NewZ
the martyrs of Palestine would have no hope for justice and revenge
dontgetit,
What about the martyrs of Assad, Nejad, Gad-fly, Saddam Hussein, Hamas, and Hezbollah?
Those hundreds of thousands of souls were killed by Arabs despots so once again, I suppose we sweep those folks under the rug and way out of sight.
Or do they get “justice and revenge”?
Posted by Akbar Palace | May 31, 2011, 11:08 pmGabriel,
At times you have displayed an interest in facts, figures and unvarnished truth. The following are some preliminary figures from something that I have been working on recently that you might find interesting.
We all know that the telecom brings in to the Lebanese treasury a revenue of about $1.1 billion each year. EDL however requires a subsidy of $2.2 billion. Many like to suggest that this huge deficit is essentially due to encrouchments. This is only partially true.
The current average monthly residential charges for the first 500 kwh is under 70LL per KWH. That is about 4.6 cents per KWH.
These fees were last set in 1994 when the price of oil averaged $15.66 per barrel. Lebanon last year distributed about 10 billion KWH which simply suggests that an additional levy of a dime per KWH would cut the EDL deficit in half.
The other half is probably due to inefficient production facilities and encrouchments by citizens all over the country.
Gabe #114
You said” How is it that M8 is having a hard time selecting people to fill up the posts in the cabinet? ”
I do not know whether the above is supposed to be a serious query or whether it is just a tongue is cheek kind of a question.But just in case it is serious:The MSM in Lebanon have not dealt seriously enough with the difficulty of forming a cabinet. It is a gross and inaccurate simplification to suggest that the cabinet is essentially HA, FPM and Amal. Aoun has his three junior partners, Tashnak, Marada and Arslan that need to be satisfied. Then there is the representation of Jumblatt in addition to Zahle. The obstacles that arise from the above loose coalition are not formidable. The real issue is the share of the president and that of Mikati. Mikati does not want to be a figure head only. He insists on being a PM with some heft . This means that he will bring with him Safadi plus at a least another two. I think that the real obstacle has been the allocation of the ministerial portfolios. If Mikati and the president are to take say Defense, Interior, Trade, Telecommand Finance while public works goes to Jumblatt then what is left for all the others?
The real problem is that they cobbled together a slim majority without discussing the details. And ss we all know that is where the devil resides
Posted by ghassan karam | May 31, 2011, 11:27 pmAP says:”dontgetit,
What about the martyrs of Assad, Nejad, Gad-fly, Saddam Hussein, Hamas, and Hezbollah?
Those hundreds of thousands of souls were killed by Arabs despots so once again, I suppose we sweep those folks under the rug and way out of sight.
Or do they get “justice and revenge”?”
This is typical Israhell “hasbarah”. Every time the zionists are called to task for their insane cruelty, they try to pretend that the Arabs are even worse. But Arab loyalty to Palestinian rights to permanent refugee status cannot excuse “israeli”apartheid and no matter how many people the Lion of Damascus may kill, it will pale in comparison to the horrors of Cast Lead. Go back to your dream world and imagine that Arab on Arab killing is the result of anything other than a reaction to your own depravity.
Posted by dontgetit | May 31, 2011, 11:34 pmGK…
As always, thanks for the info. I like to stick to facts and numbers.
Re: second question. No it wasn’t tongue and cheek. I wasn’t sure if Iceman was suggesting the reason that no government was put in place for the past few months because they were actually “obstructing” the formation of such a government. Mikati is M8′s choice, no? So they need to figure out some way of making their loose coalition work. They simply have to take responsibility for forming a government.
Also, I don’t think M14 should be in a government, not because it is a matter of spite. I think this whole Unity government is senseless. If a party gets elected (even if they cobble up a “coalition”), this coalition has to form the government. It doesn’t matter if its M8 or M14, or M-Teezee. I really don’t think this ought to be as complicated as the Lebanese appear to be making it out to be.
Sometimes, you will perhaps have to excuse my naivety, and it’s simply because I never know if I’m missing part of the story (since I don’t read every source and rely on what little snippets get posted here and there) or if the various characters currently in power in Lebanon really are simply just making a farce out of the political system.
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 11:48 pmOf all areas of Syria the Turkish army would set up base to “protect refugees”… they pick the furthest point North East of the country, farthest from all the towns currently under siege… and home to Syria’s Kurdish population…..
… and some believe that Turkey is doing that out of concern for refugees?
Am I missing something?
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 12:06 amTo those better informed/aware than me, why has the idea of setting up of a GAO-equivalent in Lebanon not been raised more frequently? It is crazy that theories such as Charles’ may be true, but no one can be certain… How is it possible that public money can be fought over between different mafia-like figures, without us, whose money it really is at the end of the day, even knowing enough information to be able to tell whether it is true or not? We need some laws on transparency: every LL/$ spent by the government, should be retrievable on a website. The money earned by politicians in the last 2 decades needs to be justified, to the last cent, ie what percentage of it was made due to that person’s role as a well-connected politician? How much is being spent on government contracts (e.g. maintenance of roads, power/telecom infrastructure), and who is the recipient?
These things aren’t so difficult to implement, and will pay for themselves. Hiring and empowering a few people will be all it takes. Is the issue really that everyone’s hands are dirty, so that while they are happy to put on a charade of fighting each other all the time in shifting alliances, this is, somehow, also a distraction, because at the end of the day they all have a common interest in dividing the pie between them and covering up the fact that they are all somehow implicated?
Again, I don’t know enough, nor am I frankly that interested in following it all anymore. But am just throwing something out there.
Posted by PB | June 1, 2011, 3:50 amGabriel # 106,
Meforum, MEIB, USCFL, are CIA/MOSSAD tools used extensively to smear Mr. Elie HOBEIKA from 1998 to 2002. They were part and parcel of the Demonization campaign against Elie, in preparation for his cowardly assassination by the most Infamous White House Murder INC, on January 24th 2002….by strange Bedfellows indeed…
Whatever MEIB, Meforum or USCFL and Gary Gambill say are utter bull shit. It is part of the deception and denial campaigns to hide the tracks of CIA/MOSSAD extra-judicial assassinations. The story they concocted the very next day after the assassination of Mr. Elie Hobeika about Imad Moughnieh being the culprit is pure unadulterated BUNK made in CIA/MOSSAD.
Elie Hobeika was on good talking terms with Hassan Nasrallah but did not agree with their politics at the time, because he feared their desire of setting up an Islamic state in Lebanon at some point in time. But politics do evolve, perceptions evolve and projects evolve…also, convictions evolve!
Then, Who says that Hezbollah always saw eye to eye with Syria??? They still don’t today, and whoever says otherwise is obviously has never spoken to the cadre of Hezbollah…
V, for your information Nabih BERRI worked extensively with DIA for years, and I had a post with all the details in a previous thread, go check it out
Posted by HK | June 1, 2011, 3:53 amHK…
Thx for the response, and if you don’t mind me redirecting…
So if somehow I were to have access to SHN today, and I were to ask him if he (today) still believed Hobeika was behind S&C or if he believes he was framed for it. Which would he say?
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 5:18 amG # 134,
Your question has been answered time and again. The book of Alain Menargues has all the answers and the most accurate description of what really happened in 82, and IDF operations “Spark” and “Iron Brain” were part and parcel of the IDF invasion plans. All that is well known by now. IDF needed a fall guy, they chose Elie Hobeika and they have been at it since 82…and they continue smearing Elie to this very day in many articles and publications ten years after they and the Infamous White House Murder INC, assassinated him…January 24th 2002 at 9.20 AM in Hazmieh!
Going back to your question, I had the honor and the privilege of meeting SHN way back in 04, and I am more than satisfied with the conversation we had, which covered all these topics. I will never disclose the details of that most interesting meeting.
Posted by HK | June 1, 2011, 5:59 amThe Wacky World of Anti-Zionism
I asked dontgetit:
What about the martyrs of Assad, Nejad, Gad-fly, Saddam Hussein, Hamas, and Hezbollah?
Those hundreds of thousands of souls were killed by Arabs despots so once again, I suppose we sweep those folks under the rug and way out of sight.
Or do they get “justice and revenge?
dontgetit replied:
This is typical Israhell “hasbarah”. Every time the zionists are called to task for their insane cruelty, they try to pretend that the Arabs are even worse.
dontgetit,
“hasbarah”? How so? Isn’t it true the Arabs have killed more Arabs than Israel? This should be a yes or no answer.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 6:52 amThe Murderers were Syrian so let’s talk about Israhell NewZ
Torture of the child martyr: ‘Rebel’, 13, shot, kneecapped and had genitals removed before being killed by Syria’s sadistic regime
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1392684/Hamza-child-martyr-tortured-death-Syrian-soldiers.html#ixzz1O1LhuKpk
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 6:58 amAP #138,
Thanks for the link. This was pure savagery.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 7:22 amIsrahell NewZ
GK,
I can’t say I like posting this stuff, but when Arabs can only be outraged by Israel, I find that to be ignorant. Not to say, there are liberal Arabs on the 2 sites I visit (QN and SC) who ARE outraged by Arab savagery, and I would understand outrage if the IDF did the same thing.
Anyway, you’ll be happy to know that a top Iranian cleric has given permission to kill Israeli civilians and children:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4076176,00.html
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 7:36 amGK,
Here’s an article from “Israhell” you may find interesting…
http://frontpagemag.com/2011/05/30/one-day-in-the-life-of-an-israeli-hospital/
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 7:39 amHP and danny
What are you guys waiting for? I have no idea
Posted by Qifa Nabki | June 1, 2011, 7:59 amAP #141
President Carter was the first high ranking person to accuse Israel of apartheid in print. His accusation and that of many on US campuses is not as much concerned with the treatment of Israeli Arabs but by the treatment of the Palestinians. One can suggest that even the treatment of Israeli Arabs is under pressure to become less equitable.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 7:59 amGK,
Thanks for the lesson on the all-knowing ME expert, President Carter. I get to him later today;)
But what did you think about the article I linked to? Any thoughts positive or negative?
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 8:06 amQN,
HP is waiting for the answers to his questions from iceman…(I assume)
I was waiting for a post from you re: HA’s options (disarm/take over Lebanon/integrate into the army?)in Lebanon considering the geopolitical turmoil in ME…
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 8:17 amJimmy’s Bait & Switch (con’t)
http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=7&x_issue=9&x_article=2052
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 8:42 amAP,
One does not need to be an expert inthe politics of a region or be super smart to see apartheid. all what one needs is to be human. This has nothing to do with 242.
It is not only Carter that warned about apartheid. Both Golda meir and Abba Eban said essentially the same thing about occupation. I have heard it said many times, but I have not been able to find a reliable source for it, that Ben Gurion told Meir on his death bed: Give it back.
The options that result from occupation are very few:
(1) Treat everyone equally and that results in a demographic problem or (2) apply two different treatments. I imagine none of the above is acceptable and therefore the only way out is a negotiated settlement .
As you can see a two state solution on fair terms is good for all parties.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 9:00 amhmm, let me advance the alternate theory that I was waiting for my
as in:
Q- http://qifanabki.com/2011/05/26/some-arab-revolutions-are-more-equal-than-others/
A- http://qifanabki.com/2011/05/26/some-arab-revolutions-are-more-equal-than-others/#comment-24482
Waiting for: my plate of Syrian baklawa as in “First one to spot the odd one out wins a plate of Syrian baklawa”
Posted by Honest Patriot | June 1, 2011, 9:11 amOh! and the proletariat is also demanding more of Charles…
puhleez
Posted by Honest Patriot | June 1, 2011, 9:14 amHK..
I didn’t realize we are in the company of people who had the privilege of an audience with SHN!
By no means would I ever ask you to divulge the conversations you had between you too, as I am certain they must be top secret.
All I’ve asked is (and you should know as you’ve spoken to SHN personally)….does SHN agree that Hobeika was in fact innocent from killing thousands of Muslims in SC? It’s a Yes or No answer.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 10:30 amOne does not need to be an expert inthe politics of a region or be super smart to see apartheid.
GK,
I agree with you. So please tell the audience here what apartheid you witnessed in Israel.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 10:36 amAP.
I think when states explicitly follow policies that promote “apartness” between different groups, you have a situation of apartheid.
So of course, there is no question that Israel, being by construct a “Jewish” state, has followed apartheid policies.
But you should not necessarily dismay. The Arab/Islamic world in its entirety is formed of Apartheid states. First and foremost on this list is Saudi Arabia, which completely blows Israel on the Apartheid Richter scale.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 10:47 amThe Israeli Apartheid Libel
Gabriel,
Thank you for chiming in, but this term you used, “apartness”, is nebulous.
Here is a list of countries with state religions. Note that Israel is NOT one of them because Israel has NO state religion.
It goes back to the term “Jewish People”, and as we have seen, this term is difficult for many people to “wrap their mind around it”. The link below touches on this subject and states that “Jewish” is a polyseme.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_religion
Whereas “apartness” is perceived, “apartheid” is ILLEGAL. See the link below.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_of_apartheid
Most Israelis contend there is no apartheid because Israeli citizens are equal under the law. But like most countries, racism still exists and law suits are still filed. Whereas anti-Arab racism was fairly abundant years ago in Israel, I find it has improved greatly. Many people (mostly anti-Zionists and liberals) are HOPING that Israel experiences that same internal demonstrations that are being experienced across the ME; namely, Israeli-Arabs demonstrating against the GOI.
But getting back to Apartheid, no one including President Carter has been able to prove to me that it exists in Israel. Most Jews and Israelis understand it is a hammer to hit Israel over the head with at the UN.
And speaking of the UN, wouldn’t you agree that if over a thousand Israelis were killed in demonstrations, the UN would be breathing hellfire within the various assemblies?
Why is this not the case for the Utopian State of Syria?
Alan Desrhowitz is usually cited for a good defense of the label Jimmy Carter helped to pin on the GOI…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-dershowitz/the-world-according-to-ji_b_34702.html
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 12:04 pmAP:
Ethnicity/Religion. It makes no difference to me. You may think the definition is nebulous. But that’s alright. For me apartheid should have a simple definition: discrimination because of “apartness”. Be that skin color, race, ethnicity, political beliefs, religious beliefs, orientation, gender.
As for the rest of your point. That is all legalese.
Egypt discriminates against the Bahaii. They make copts jump through loops and hoops to build churches. Saudi Arabia doesn’t even allow non-Muslims into Mecca.
When was the last time you saw anyone in Durban holding up signs saying Islamism = Apartheid?
I see the ICC lists as part of its list of crimes against humanity “Deportation or forcible transfer of population;”.
Hmmm. Has the ICC gone after Turkey yet for deporting leading to death for its Armenian population?
If not, what are they waiting for?
So please don’t bog me down with strict legal definitions.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 12:23 pmSo please don’t bog me down with strict legal definitions.
Gabriel,
Firstly, Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are not accused by the UN and ex-US presidents of being “an apartheid state” when they’re more like one than Israel!
Secondly, I don’t like being told by people who have never visited or lived in Israel that Israel is an apartheid state.
If there are specific cases of racism, the Israeli court and legal aide systems work quite well.
“Legalese” is just a way to separate the real from the imagined.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 12:31 pm…and the Supreme leader of Lebanon has proclaimed:
Nasrallah: Iran is called the Islamic Republic of Iran and not Velayat-e Faqih. There have been several efforts in the passed few years to represent it as an oppressive state and these are all lies.
Now we are set straight! All those demonstrators brutally suppressed and killed are a figment of your imagination…just like what you hear about the atrocities in Syria. They are all lies.
eufff…Thank God we have Hassan Nassrallah.
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 12:33 pmGabriel and Iceman (around #114)
Sorry for the tardy response. But what the hell are you guys smoking? It is now M14′s fault that M8 cannot form a government on its own? Jesus F*** Christ and all the saints, the Prophet, apostles and everything else that’s holy! I give up talking to you people.
How can M14 possibly be responsible for obstructing something they have no say into?
And iceman: “Sometimes cabinets of national unity are needed to make things work” (I paraphrase)…Really? Because last i checked, every single cabinet of national unity we’ve ever had has been a complete and utter failure. Every single one. So why is it exactly that “sometimes those are needed”? Needed to do what? Fail miserably?
And again, I don’t understand the bizarre circular logic you guys are exhibiting. M8 does not want to govern with M14, so they brought that government down. But now they want to govern with M14 again because they can’t govern alone? Which one is it? Either they can’t govern with M14, or they can’t govern alone. Can’t have it both ways. Or maybe this just proves that M8 can’t govern period, with or without help. In which case they should quit politics entirely and stop preventing others from at least trying to govern.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 1:00 pmBV:
What’s your issue with me? I agree with you!
AP:
OK… And?
Look, I don’t think that because Iran or KSA are apartheid states worse than Israel that this means Israel should not aim higher and be better.
If. KSA doesn’t allow church building, should the West ban mosque building? A little tit for tat? In my view, no!
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 1:53 pmPS (AP)
There should be motions put in the UN against Saudi Arabia and Iran, and other such cesspools.
The question is who’s going to do it. Apparently the world is too beholden to that black liquid
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 1:57 pmDanny,
This mantra of blaming others for our problems is stale, has no traction and is an easy to avoid taking responsibility for the mess that we have created. Let SHN and others blame the American-Israeli scheme all they want. In the final analysis most and possibly all of the problems of the Arab world would be either totally resolved or much less acute had we been less authoritarian and more democratic. The easiest way to avoid a spat based on religion or national origin is to treat all members of a society equally. Unless we learn that lesson then the political,social and economic fault lines will only become more severe.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 2:08 pmGK,
Agreed.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 2:21 pm…this means Israel should not aim higher and be better
Gabriel,
I think the GOI is aiming higher. But that’s hard for someone to see outside of the leftist and arab media and Jimmy Carter’s books and articles.
I appreciate your feedback.
“Black liquid”, fear of terrorism, and Saudi money is what we Zionists are up against.
Good thing we own the media!;)
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 2:45 pmBV,
Why should one keep repeating himself with you?
Who said we’re blaming M14 for M8 faiure?
Do you recognize the fact that we do not have majorities and minorities? Instead we have disparate factions seeking to make deals.
Do you understand what a hung parliament is?
When you have a parliament made up of such disparate factions, it is absolutely normal to try to seek deals to form governments made up of these disparate factions. And that applies to all countries and not just Lebanon.
In certain circumstances, a National Unity government is a necessity. And that too apllies to all countries and not just Lebanon.
You are probably OK with HA and its factions reaching an impasse and you probably prefer to see their outright failure. Well, HA doesn’t give a damn about Lebanon and its government and wouldn’t care less if it fails in forming a government. It already has its own ‘State’. Do you want to have a State? If so then how do you want to do it? Just by watching HA fails. I wonder who’s using circular logic: I cannot get my state, therefore, I wait and watch HA fail, therefore I do not get my state because HA does not allow me to have my state since it already has its own state. Good luck with this logic.
But before I forget it is all based on rumors as you know very well.
But after another year of no gevernment, could you imagine what would be left of your ‘state’?
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 2:47 pmThere is already nothing left of our state, Iceman. Moot point.
On an unrelated topic, I found this pretty interesting:
The Armenian genocide and Israeli recognition
http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=277041
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 2:50 pmTo AP 153, 162 to G 154 and others,
As to J. Carter. A close relative is in Georgia now working as a mechanic, adjusting a machine made in Israel. He behave with all the plant workers as you do in Israel in a mixed situation of Jews and Arabs, black and white, talk, joke, dress, change cloth, change information, gossip,etc, etc etc. Also he behave the same in other occasions. Several times he was corrected, by both black and white,in the most polite, gentle and sensative way and told how to behave and what should and should not be done. His conclusions are very simple: in many ways there is much more aprthide in Georgia than in Israel, things that lasted there for about 300 years can not be changed in less that a hundred years. Examples are numerous. My conclusions are that Mr. Carter has much to do in Georgia before he start preaching about Israel, but then there is much less money and publicity fighting aparthide in Georgia.
Posted by Rani Hazbani | June 1, 2011, 3:16 pmWhat a bizarre, bizarre man.
I can understand why people in the Middle East may have a hard time getting the “Democracy” thing. Why with lack of experience, and other such things.
But for a “Canadian” to have a hard time getting it is bizarre.
Especially that here in Canada we’ve been plagued with a Series of Minority Governments, which has just recently turned into a Majority. The Tories still don’t have majority Popular support.
On Specifics:
- Who said we’re blaming M14 for M8 faiure?
When one states that if M14 does not engage in the process with M8 to form a government, then it would be obstructionist…. then he is in effect blaming M14 for M8′s failure.
- Do you recognize the fact that we do not have majorities and minorities? Instead we have disparate factions seeking to make deals.
All political parties everywhere in the world are made from disparate functions. The “Groupings” that decided to form themselves in Lebanon go under the heading of M8 and M14. Whatever that means. Technically, the M8 now represent a small majority in parliament. They should pick the cabinet from amongst their members.
Since they- nobody forced them to- chose to lump themselves in that grouping called M8. They should stop acting like children, and pick a government.
- Well, HA doesn’t give a damn about Lebanon and its government and wouldn’t care less if it fails in forming a government. It already has its own ‘State’.
If HA doesn’t care about Lebanon or its government. Why did it join the political process? If that is indeed the case, it should state so, remove itself from the political process. Let others who care about forming a government do so.
And new elections should be called.
If it is bent on being “obstructionist”… i.e. refuses to be part of the government, as well as refusing to allow others to form a government, then the areas under its control and military might should be “cut out” from Lebanon.
They can run their own little statelet without the larger state of Lebanon.
Things do not have to be made overly complex.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 3:24 pmRani #165
If that is the yardstick that you want to apply then all what yoiu are doing is denying the facts, Please feel free to play that game of self delusion. Apartheid is not about whether we love each other and whether we have personal prejudices or not. Apartheid is an official government policy that differentiates and discriminates.That , Rani, does not exist in Georgia or anywhere in the US. The Federal law offers you protection.
Obviously that is not the case in the territories of Israel. The Palestinians are discriminated against in practically every respect, hell, there are highways that they cannot use, their land is confiscated, their olive trees are uprooted, their water is kept away from them… If you supporty this then it is your prerogative but do not uase palliative and untruths to cover it up and make it acceptable. Israels behaviour in the West bank and Gaza is morally bankrupt and the longer this wound is aloud to fester the deeper the cancer will spread.
Posted by gkaram | June 1, 2011, 3:33 pmGabriel,
Are trying to push Quebec out of the confederation? They have Just for laughs.
This back and forth is so exhausting and fruitless.
We have discussed this for eons. In a summary if you all permit me:
A. M8 toppled the government and boasted of the new majority (see what HA’s mouthpieces and clAoun were declaring in January)
B. The main reason was to leave Lebanon without a government ahead of pending STL (or so they thought)indictments.
M14 was glad to be absolved of the task of having to arrest HA/Syrian agents if they were to be implicated…
C. They M8 and their masters in Syria should be left alone to try to form the government…M14 should not and will not make any such moves. They still are in charge with the caretaker government 9considering WJ’s bobbing head again) and they can run the daily affairs of the nation. Caretaker means NOT abdicating your duties!!! Did you hear that drama Queen Baroud?
D. The only way I can see is all sides to agree NOW on the future. The whole nation is tired of these war mongers and corrupt zaims. Either they should sit down with each side presenting its vision of Lebanon; and sign a new pact with non sectarian agenda. they can put in a short road map and ask Iceman to export his country’s (Canada’s not Quebec’s lol) Charter of Rights inro Lebanon. No need to recreate the wheel.
Khallas ba’aa!!! let’s cut this Bovine scatalogy. I do not see any other “trading or bartering” as beneficial.
Either that or civil war?? …Or cut the freaking land up and khallesna!!!
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 4:24 pmApartheid is an official government policy that differentiates and discriminates.
GK,
I agree with you, however, Gabriel claims this is all “legalese”.
The Palestinians are discriminated against in practically every respect, hell, there are highways that they cannot use, their land is confiscated, their olive trees are uprooted, their water is kept away from them…
GK,
I challenge you to identify a “Jews only” road. Please be careful with the “facts” you may have picked up while reading TIME magazine or the like.
Where the PA is in charge and in control, no Israeli (Jew or Arab) is allowed in unless given permission by the PA. Similarly, on all Israeli maintained roads in the West Bank, both Israeli Jews and Arabs are allowed to use them. And they do everyday.
Israels behaviour in the West bank and Gaza is morally bankrupt and the longer this wound is aloud to fester the deeper the cancer will spread.
How so? By building walls that probably have saved hundreds perhaps thousands of Israeli lives? By creating roadblocks that also saved many lives?
Israel has given control back to the Palestinians and have defacto given the Palestinians independence. Israel is not allowed back into these population centers. In return Israel has not gotten any agreement or assurances.
Israeli law applies in Israel and all Israeli citizens have equal rights as it should be.
The rest is a negotiated settlement whereby no further claims are permitted, borders are established, and relational details are metted out by both countries.
There are more pressing issues around the world if you were to ask me.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 4:29 pmg;
go take a leap on a flying donut together with dany boon !
Posted by HK | June 1, 2011, 5:01 pmI have never seen so many references to Jimmy Carter in the last 20 years as I have seen in this discussion thread!
You are all drowning into details and trivia. The real issues of Lebanon are existential.
SHN is talking about partitions in the Middle East, how Sudan was already partitioned, and predicting Libya and Yemen will be next, followed maybe by Syria.
Should Lebanon be partitioned? Shall we have a federal or similar system (e.g. a la Swiss)?
Posted by Erasmus | June 1, 2011, 5:03 pmYou don’t like Quebec, right? Why don’t you just say that? You can only ignore Quebec at your own risk, because je me souviens toujours?
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 5:09 pmHK:
Is #170 directed at me? If so, can you translate?
Also, once you get a chance, can you respond to #150:
Does SHN believe, today, that Hobeika is in fact innocent what you say are false allegations against him vis-a-vis Sabra and Chatilla?
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 5:11 pmIce I love Quebec man. Amazing food; great pubs and excellent festivals…But i was just talking about the equalization payments tilt filling up Quebec’s coffers…When is Quebec going to be a donner.
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 5:16 pmGabriel,
It has been said that if you are acid and ganja as long as Cheech (HK) has been (from leftovers of his drug lord baron Hobeika)…You would see flying donuts too lol.
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 5:18 pmErasmus,
If you had read the 4-5 posts that refernce Carter then you would have noted that no one was talking about either Lebanon or the childish analysis of SHN. When in doubt throw around accusations and always make sure that it is the big Satan that is blamed. Are we responsible for anytghing in our lives? Is it the West that created the Ba’ath and Bashar? Was it the West that installed Gaddafi and Bashir? Who is it that accepted Sadam and Ben Ali. The next thing that you are going to tell me , I imagine, is that the West was behind the 1952 Egyptian revolution? Give me a break:-)
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 5:47 pmGhassan,
Of course we have zero responsibility in anything that we do in our lives. It is all imposed on us from above. You should know that by now.
We have absolutely no free will.
We’re poor souls, condemned to be buffeted around by forces bigger than us…
etc…
*vomits violently…
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 6:01 pmGK,
Your take on this article …
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/more_housing_hell_aczDMaSv0hSB9tN2xiRY9J
Posted by R2D2 | June 1, 2011, 6:01 pmGhassan and BV,
Of course we’re not responsible. It’s all maktub
Hatha houwa qadarouna.
Or to quote another great hero: “Hakatha aradana allah, hakatha houwa attareekh, hakatha hiya aljoughrafia”
E.
Posted by Erasmus | June 1, 2011, 6:40 pmIceman Iceman Iceman.
Now that I have time for the frivolous convos.
Who writes stuff like this. As I asked before, how old are you, really?
On a serious note though (because I think the prism through which you see reality is a little messed up), on this point on “engagement”, why do you think I would want to engage with you in a manner different from how I have been doing it for the last few months?
Take, for a recent example, HP. He asked you several times if you agreed with Fisk’s views on the Gulf after promoting that article. And several times, you ignored him.
Do you really think I would want to engage with you differently?
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 6:41 pmSome strange sayings attributed to the man that was celebrated today in Iran and Lebanon and possibly a few other countries:
“Girls and boys who attend coeducational classes in grammar schools, high schools. universities..and who wish to contract a temporary marriage may do so without the permission of their fathers”.
I understand universities but isn’t grammar school too young for that? Who dispenses the temporary marriage certificates for 6 years old?
“It is shameful to do one’s work under orders of a Jewish foreman”
I wonder whether one can go to a US college without encountering Jewish Departmental chairs?
“Radio and television are allowed if they are used for the broadcasting of news or sermons…. but they must prohibit singing, music, anti -Islamic laws ,the lauding of tyrants, mendacious words…”
Is there such a radio or TV service besides Almara:-)
“Islamic justice is based on simplicity and ease….. All that is requiredis for an Islamic judge, with a pen and inkwell and two or three enforcers, to go into a town, come to his verdicton any kind of case, and have it immediately carried out. Look at the present cost in time and money in Western society with all its judicial procedures..”
I , for one am sure glad that ink wells are difficult to find these days.
“Since the Almighty did not designate anyone by name to form the Islamic government in the absence of the hidden Imam what are we to do?…”
allow a self anointed Imam ?
If the sultans are obedient to Islam then they should be obedient to the clergy….. In this way the clergy are the real leadres”
Rasputin, anyone?
“Holy war means the conquest of all non-Moslem territories.Such aar may well be declared… at the direction of the Imam….the final aim of which(the conquest() is to put Koranic law in power from one end of the earth to the other”
World domination?
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 6:43 pmOn a side note, this discussion thread reminds me of the good old discussions on Usenet, specifically soc.culture.lebanon (SCL)
Has any of you partaken in SCL?
I know, this dates me, and labels me as a geek
Please ignore if you don’t even know what I’m talking about.
Posted by Erasmus | June 1, 2011, 6:47 pmGhassan,
Have you ever read Khomeini’s book that became quite popular in the very late 70′s and early 80′s? It was full of gems like the ones you mentioned.
E.
Posted by Erasmus | June 1, 2011, 6:51 pmI guess dontgetit daily comments are here to remind the audience how valuable the Resistance is, and what importance it has in the fight against the evil.
I see that most of the discussion slips towards Israel, so I feel that we also need to remind QN’s readership about the level of civilization that this tiny little country has reached, and how much it is contributing in educating this backward people called “arabs”. By the way, somebody in that blog already had the guts to ask “who are these so-called arabs?”. Well articulated question.. and if we look in detail on historical facts, we will see that the “arabs” are as mythological as the Atlantes.
So in that perspective, do not be surprised when you see the US congress giving 50 ovations to the leader of this vanguard country.
Posted by 3issa | June 1, 2011, 6:55 pmDanny,
On ganga.. Lol
GK.
I believe iceman has already put that to rest. The baath was the product of Orientalist meddling. He has proposed Baath V2.0, but was a little short on the details.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 6:59 pmGhassan,
True gems, no?
If you were to post those quotes without attributing them to their author, in pretty much 99% of the globe, people would claim it the work of a madman/charlatan.
But no, in our neck of the woods, we plaster his posters everywhere and revere him like some kind of enlightening figure. Not to mention making ridiculous speeches to commemorate him…
I’ll stick to madman/charlatan.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 7:21 pmGaby,
No issues brother…
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/ganja
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ganja
Any news from the VW of Cheech?
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 7:39 pmR2D2 #178
tells me that the demise of the American economy is very much exagerated. The US is still the most vigorous and dynamic economy in the world and will remain so for a few decades at least. If the next frontier area is the marriage of computers and biology, which I think it is, then the US will lead this charge and even dominate it just as it did in microships, telephones, TV’s, cell phones, PC’s smart phones …
I do not know how serious you are when you point out this column. I follow these issues very closely and I could go on and on about them. i do not think that many, if any, on this forum will be interested. But yet you do bring up a very important issue.
Is the lackluster housing market holding back the US economy? Hell yes it is. Could it take the US back into a recession? I have learned never to say an emphatic no but in this case I will:-)
Were ther excesses in the US housing market? You be the judge? If it was possible to flip a house within 24-48 hours and make a decent profit then was that a bubble?
I am not downplaying the negative effects of this bubble. Housing was oversold to the Americans and there is nothing wrong in renting. As you might know home ownership in the Us is around 66% while in Switzerland it is only 28%.
Housing is very important because so many unskilled labour depends on it for a living. The decline in housing is having a devastating effect of the distribution of income and that is what worries me the most.
Anyway, my crystal ball which is juat as cloudy as anyone else’s
Ideologically i am opposed to economic growth and to a unipolar world but this is not about what ought but about what is.
I hope that Americans will stop looking at housing as an investment. It is only shelter. That coupled with the possibility oflower growth will keep real estate prices down especially in the places where they went up the most.
BTW, I have been predicting a housing bust in Lebanon for over a year and I have been partially correct. Prices have come down substabtially but the bust has not occured yet. I think that it might still happen but it will never be as severe as what hit the US, Ireland and Spain because of the lower degree of leverging. Since you live in Lebanon, then you probably know about Beit Misk, just before Babda’at. Most of the homes sell for over half a million dollars and a very large number is bought on speculation. They put the down and expect to flip it by the time the apartments are ready. If the instability continues then who are they going to flip it to and at what price? One thing is certain, Beit Misk and the other similar developments in Bhamdoun, Aley… are not meant for the average Lebanese making $18000 a year.
I have often been called , by my friends, a giraffe, because i am willing to stick my neck out:-). The US will not go into a double dip, housing has bottomed 2011 will see 12.5 million cars sold and the fourth quarter will grow at 3.5%. Put this aside, open it on new year eve and double check the accuracy:-) I am always ready to eat my beret.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 7:55 pmGhassan,
I’m gonna write down your predictions and revisit next year.
(I tend to agree with your assessment, btw).
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 8:15 pmAlways informative Gus,
I’m one of those crazy expats looking for a place in Lebanon to semi-live there.( emphasis on semi). I’ll keep an ear to the ground in regards to real estate and don’t hold back on giving your thoughts on this subject.
Beit Misk was too pleasantville for my liking…and I’m sure a lot of overpriced Beirut properties will come down, but the thing is with Lebanon is that there is a high demand for property because of all the expats recent attachment to their homeland ,coupled with scarce resources. Isn’t a simple market principle of supply and demand that will keep the real estate in Lebanon afloat and ever increasing?
Posted by maverick | June 1, 2011, 8:39 pmThe nyt article is not only about the housing market, it is about the general economy of the US.
The decline of the housing market in the US is not the only cause for the weak US economy, and in fact it is not even the major cause.
I speak from first hand experience dealing with directors and CEOs who are responsible for making major policy decisions for major multinational multi-billion dollar companies. The nyt article is talking about the failure of the US economy to produce jobs in order to turn around this latest recession triggered by the housing market collapse. There is a deliberate decision on the part of corporate America to outsource production to Asia. There is a catch acronym for those countries among corporate America. They do not even refer to them by the country’s full name. They call them LCC’s for low cost countries. America is not producing. Its economy has turned into a service economy consuming what the rest of the world is selling to it at prices it cannot afford. Only the creation of jobs can stimulate the economy and that has not happened 4 years after the housing market triggered recession
What the nyt article is predicting from the continued weak housing market, if you read it carefully, is the onset of the much feared deflationary cycle which will drag every one down the road to the abyss.
Today, Pres. Obama appealed to the congress which voted down his proposal to increase the limit on government borrowing, which I mentioned under a recent thread is getting broken at the moment. The proposal was voted down by 318 votes against 97 votes and Obama warned of dire consequences to the US and world economy. Even if Congress eventually approves, which is unlikely, 600000 federal and government employees will have to be laid off. If Obama agrees to the Congress demands of reduced spending in exchange for approval, then that will mean more strangleholds on further artificial stimulation of a ‘dead’ economy brought to that state by the doings of the US itself.
If you have money to invest stay away from this infected red herring called US of A. Look to countries such as Brazil, India or if worse comes to worse make a mattress out of your extra cash and do not lose much sleep.
I love it when experts use their expertise to spin events.
O’ I forgot. Do not overlook Canada for your planned portfolio. It is well known historically that when the US sneezes, Canada would catch cold. Not this time however. When the US was shedding jobs in 2008, Canada was hiring and enjoying robust economy, not to mention that its banks received the highest rating in the world when US historically giant financial institutions were going under. All that thanks to Canada’s resource based West and the resource-hungry Asian giants. I was personally involved in a major expansion project of the Vancouver port aimed specifically at connecting the Western provinces to the Pacific basin countries. There are some excellent opportunities in mining, oil sands, gas, coal that are no longer destined to south of the 49 parallel.
You could be right Danny, why should we keep paying equalization payments to central Canada? Isn’t that where TO is? Who wants that? Yak!
2015 to 2020 is the time for the US to throw in the towel.
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 9:43 pmErasmus #183,
These quotes are from The Little Green Book.
BTW are you a faculty member at the Polytechnic of NY?. If so which campus? If you do not want your answers to be visible to the rest of the world then send me a note: wp.karam@gmail.com
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 10:05 pmIts time we invade Canada
Posted by V | June 1, 2011, 10:17 pm3issa (184):
You understand me correctly. Far too much attention is being paid these days to the squabbling in Syria or to minor internal affairs in Lebanon and not enough focus is being placed on the importance of vigilant resistance. The zionists are not going to voluntarily give up their lust for Arab land and without SHN and his fighters to frighten and intimidate them, Lebanon would have long ago become a suburb of [Israhelli] Haifa.
Posted by dontgetit | June 1, 2011, 10:25 pmThat’s all you guys (V) are good for, right?
You see now why we passed Saddam over to you?
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 10:49 pmdontgetit,
Don’t you see the circularity in that argument. You never need to prove anything if you assume what you are trying to prove.
How can you possibly be serious about this, which I gather you are, and yet oppose the George Bush policy of attacking a country on the basis that you think that it is going to attack you? This is madness.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 10:53 pmThe article that R2D2 linked to was a simple 500 word article about housing.
Production in LCC has been the obvious choice for decades but it was not as feasible since transportation costs were high and since these countries were not truly LCC since their labor productivity was very low.
Once technology spread and labour productivity closed most of the gap then it became irrational to produce in country A when you can get the exact same output in countrty B for half the price. Economic theory has been teaching the principle of “equalization of factor prices” for decades but few took the theory seriously. Actually this theory says that in a frictionless world prices of all factors will become even in the same way that wages and other things tend towards equality within the same country.
There is nothing wrong or scary about outsourcing. It is the best application of efficiency. In the same way that one trades say california wines for Vermont maple syrup so we should trade between different regions of the world.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 11:09 pmIceman,
There’s many millions of people in Toronto. You shouldn’t diss it outright.
In fact, I think you would quite like it over here.
For one, look at this year’s line-up in the Luminato festival:
http://www.luminato.com/2011/1001nights
It’s the world premiere, and it may be worth you making a trip here. Hell, I’ll even take you out on a date to see it!
What’s more. You would feel so comfortable here. There are so many Saudis, who perhaps in the past used to send their kids to school in the US, and prefer Canada nowadays. Toronto seems to be their preferred spot. Many of them are studying to be doctors. You would feel right at home.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 11:12 pmV:
Or maybe you can elect Sarah Drill Baby Drill Palin…
It’s nice to see how eager Saudi-minded people are on resource-based economies. Mining. Drilling. Free Money. Let’s do more destroying our earth.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 11:18 pm“The economy still isn’t producing enough jobs to keep up with the growing workforce. So people are reluctant to become first-time homebuyers because they’ve lost (or fear losing) their jobs, and because they fear further price drops. That means”
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/more_housing_hell_aczDMaSv0hSB9tN2xiRY9J#ixzz1O5MBnNFg
The above quote from the NYT article is saying 4 years after the onset of the housing and financial markets collapse, the US is still not producing jobs.
Whatever the theory says, those jobs have been outsourced by corporate America depriving the US of the benefits. There will be no recovery in the US unless the US starts hiring the millions who are officially unemployed and the other millions who are unemployed but are not in the system.
Compare that situation to the 90s when the US experienced negative unemployment and in fact employed over 30 million so-called ‘aliens’. But then greed took over and presto…. the finnacial system gets deregulated despite the advice to the contrary of the well-intentioned.
Again will revisit in 2015.
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 11:33 pmI find myself in complete agreement with iceman re The usa’s economic and political situation. The debts accumulating and The hubris wars are unsustainable to say The least ! US debt is junk already if IT was not for The utter control of Moody’s, fitch etc by US oligarchs …..Usa is On par with Greece And The US dollar is worthless !
Posted by Hk | June 2, 2011, 4:12 amGhassan,
EIU forecasts for US growth in Q4 2011 are 3.1% quarter on quarter and 2.9% y-o-y.
As this is a Lebanon blog, I should add that we have revised our 2011 growth forecast for Lebanon down severely to 1.3%.
Posted by EIU | June 2, 2011, 5:31 amIn China, It is “the mountain going to Buddha, not Buddha going to the mountain”..it is not rural-urban migration…but industries and factories migrating to rural China.!
Mostly, China is helped by perhaps these two things: 1) the Chinese people, along with their leaders, are keen on finding solutions to whatever problems which are confronting them, whatever they may be -
or sending in 79 SEALs on a bunch of Blackhawks to murder somebody who was unarmed and yet without anything to show
the can-do attitude – but not on frivolous activities like trying to grow bigger balls
for- and 2) China is not burdened down by wars, not to mention trillion-dollar Hubris wars, and the infamous White House Murder INC, like in the Zioconned USA.
For the bigger balls reference, please see Rowson’s cartoon at :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cartoon/2011/apr/16/obama-cameron-sarkozy-libya-article
For the 79 SEALs, it’s Noam Chomsky’s count on the number sent to kill Bogey/phony “bin Laden” and then eliminate all the forensic evidence on those they killed….?
This is the kind of game of deception the Nobel Peace Prize winner Manchurian candidate Barack Obomba plays in order to remain spokesman for the war machine which has increasingly administered blows to Mother Earth and
the defenseless ones of our brothers and sisters on this same planet, from central America to Darfur and a whole host of other places in between.
Shame on you, teleprompter Obomba who has betrayed the trust of so many in America who have elected you in hope that you would do better than your criminal predecessors and of so many of those in the vast continent of Africa & MENA who thought you would share their hope and dream: to be once
and for all respected, instead of being ignored and trampled upon.
Oh, Libya, Granddaughter of Io, Grandmother of Europa, and Incarnation of the falling rain, a land of the ancient Mediterranean civilization and the miracle of the Great Man Made River of the modern times, the
Europeans and their servants are heaving with a pulsating lust after your luscious goods….
The inside Job of 9-11 & sneaky-snake false-flag terrorists: The Big Six…
http://www.freepress.net/ownership/chart/main?gclid=CNqOmuiWkqkCFUN-5Qodiw-TpQ
Posted by HK | June 2, 2011, 5:57 amYes, we little jihadists are so sweet and innocent. We murder thousands of innocent people in the US, Europe, the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
And our terrorism is just enough to get some sympathizers and spineless politicians in the US to support our goal of isolating Israel. In the rest of world we just like murdering for fun.
Have a nice fatwa!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 2, 2011, 6:54 amThe utterly corrupt & Zioconned FBI can work two years on ‘capturing’ a couple of dupes but when it comes to getting some very dangerous domestic US Ziocon terrorists they seem to fall short. I don’t remember any indictments for the liars who sent US killers into Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, Afghanistan and Libya, using JSOC, SOCOM, OSP and Cheney’s infamous White House Murder INC. Killing a million or more people, stealing resources and enabling the heroin trade must be OK. Destruction of evidence at the crime scene of the obvious inside Job of 9/11 would seem to be an indictable offense but the FBI must not think so. Wall Street is full of Bernie Madoff types but they just keep on keeping on… AIPAC is a foreign spy nest and bribers and intimidators of government officials but that kind of mobster activity is off limits to an FBI roundup.
Even when the FBI does its job as it did in arresting and detaining dozens of Israelis on and right after 9/11, someone pulls the strings and no indictments are forthcoming.
It’s lucky the FBI has a few dumb patsies they can chase around for years. Otherwise Congress could do some deficit cutting at 935 Pennsylvania Avenue and we would never notice the difference.
Posted by HK | June 2, 2011, 7:06 amHK says:
“US debt is junk already” . You like throwing incendiary devices don’t you?
Making such statements is useless unless you have data to support it and unless your analysis is objective and applies by applying a standard measure on a global basis and unless it recognizes the different nature of the debt and its structure. I thought that we had discussed this once earlier but let me just remind you of three things:
(1) US national debt is denominated in its own currency. Very few countries can say that, if any.
(2) A little bit less than half, I do not have the time to look it up, is intra US government agencies i.e almost half of the US debt is NOT held by the public.
(3) The US is arguably one of the very few countries in the world, and possibly the only one, that can practice interest rate repression on a large scale. (Keep the interest rate lower than the rate of growth in the economy).
And finally remember also that 85% of the $5 Trillion daily transactions in foreign exchange involve dollars. There is no other currency that can step in to replace it at the moment.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 7:30 amIceman,
Re:191
Did you falter or were you inhaling the second hand ganGa (happy Gabe?) smoke from Cheech?
Source: Statistics Canada
Per capita benefit is derived from provincial population data in other Wiki articles and the total payments cited below.
Quebec and Manitoba will receive the most from equalization payments in the 2010-2011 year.[3]
However, per capita, PEI benefits the most. In the 2010-2011 year, the following provinces will receive equalization payments:[3]
Quebec ($8.552 billion)
Manitoba ($1.826 billion)
New Brunswick ($1.581 billion)
Nova Scotia ($1.11 billion)
Ontario ($972 million)
Prince Edward Island ($330 million)
Until last year Ontario had never been a recipient of Equalization payments…but as you see the black hole Quebec is receiving the most $8,552 billion for 2010-2011 year. It is $1,071 per capita for Quebec vs. a paltry $27 for Ontario.
Care to revise your statement senior??
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments_in_Canada#Regional_fiscal_disparities_in_Canada
Posted by danny | June 2, 2011, 8:04 amAs we have often said one is entitled to ones opinion but not to ones facts.
The country that does not produce anything anylonger is the largest manufacturer in the world by far.
And then let us hasten to add that the hallmark of a developed economy is to have less and less manufacturing and more and more services. The information society is a services oriented one and so if we recognize that fact then we realize that large steel mills and other large scale manufacturing activities were the hallmarks of the 1950′s. The world is best served through specialization determined by comparative advantage. It is very clear that in modern society human capital is at least as important for determining the level of welfare as natural resources.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 8:08 amGK,
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/26/cbos-2020-vision-debt-will-rise-to-90-of-gdp/
http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2011/feb/16/jim-jordan/rep-jim-jordan-compares-us-debt-troubled-european-/
Why the difference in the outlook/notations by the crooked rating agencies, if it weren’t to what I said above?
Posted by HK | June 2, 2011, 8:36 amDanny
That was a spelling mistake from my part
. I post through the blackberry, so am prone to spelling errors 
. LoL. I was laughing since I didnt quite understand HKs comment.
Back to HK.
Im not being facetious. It really is an honest question. Does SHN think that Hobeika was in fact innocent for S&C?
Since you haven’t been forthcoming with an affirmative answer. I will assume that no, SHN doesn’t think Hobeika is innocent. (Anyone else jump in if this is wrong).
How then can you explain putting both Hobeika and SHN to hero status?
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 8:47 amHK,
There is a problem with sovereign debt practically all across the globe and yes governments have to take measures to deal with it. That is a fact
It is your statement that US debt is junk and that the rating agencies favour it that is the problem. There isn’t much to support it. You link to a washington times article that says the US debt is approaching 90% of GDP. So. Japanese is 225% Belgian is over a hundred and the rest of Europe is above 80%.
There is a major difference though and that is that all US debt is in dollars and that half of it is owed to other Government agencies. For example: In order to pay Social Security $100 billion the US can borrow a hundred billion without affecting its total debt. Total indebtedness to social security goes down by a 100 and that to others increases by a 100. Net result no change except in the composition.
As for the link to a statement by a relatively junior representative who is looking for attention it is far from being athe objective statement that I asked for.
Greece has no Euros and can print no Euroa and therefore can go technically bankrupt. The US is not is such a shape. Relative to most otghers it is in a good shape. The largest bond fund in the world has stopped buying US debt because of the very low interest rate . This simply is saying that those with financial capital are willing to hols US debt at very low interest rates. They do that only because they think that it is practically riskless. US treasuries are viewed by capital markets as a riskless security. This is changing a little bit but US treasuries are still looked upon as the safest haven.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 8:56 amDanny,
Your statistics only goes to prove my point. They (hateful TO’s) are on the receiving end. They say this year is going to be even higher (about $2 billion). It also proves my other point about the US being kaput, since ‘hateful’ TO was always in cahoots with them yanks as we can see clearly from some of them who post here.
I recently had lunch with Texan WASP who had no qualms exposing himself as such and uttering all kinds of nonsense in support of Palin and describing the Dems as the biggest failures in US history forgetting GWB’s $2 trillion war on So Dam Hussein. He (Texan) proposed a new plan for dividing this continent along new borders outlined by certain oil and gas pipelines stretching from Texas all the way through Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC and into Alaska. I believe such plan would drastically affect those statistics economically in favour of the West if they don’t end up getting diverted south. So it is worthy proposal to consider coming from such quarters as those of GWB!!! But the problem is, are we going to replace hateful TO’s with waspi Yankee yuppies? Besides what will happen to NY and the Californians. Those Calis would probably want to suck every drop of water from BC which we urgently need for the oil sands of AB.
Posted by iceman | June 2, 2011, 9:17 amEIU #202
Thanks for the info. This year and next are going to be very pivotal for Lebanon. It does not take a genius to figure out that when your debt is larger than the GDP and when you finance that debt by paying an interest rate that is above 7% that the Debt/GDP will grow when the GDP increases by only 1.3%.
The sooner our politicians and public realize that we have no choice but to restructure the better. Postponing the inevitable will only make things worse.
The only way for Lebanon to escape this debt trap is to have a group of countries agree to forgive a major chunk of debt. There is no other way since we cannot inflate ourselves out of this mess even if we wanted to. The higher is our inflation then the larger would be the rate of interest demanded to finance the debt. I wish the Lebanese public will become more aware of this issue in order to push the politicians to find the least painful option.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 9:19 am” since ‘hateful’ TO was always in cahoots with them yanks ”
LoL.
Hmm. This is coming from Ice “Drill Baby Drill” Man, who appears to be the West’s Tar Sands greatest supporter.
Mallah Smallah. Canadian, and doesn’t know where support for the US is highest in this country
.
Dude, it’s time for you to give up that passport and move back to Saudi. You’ve milked the system here long enough.
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 9:30 amIceman,
Wow…You really can’t see the forest for the trees…The stats prove that ONTARIO (Not Toronto) was recipient for the FIRST TIME EVER…While your black hole called Quebec has been sucking us dry for decades.
Now I will keep your “prediction” on file and follow up later. You really are getting bad at the spins lol. Admit it that Quebec is a welfare state.
Posted by danny | June 2, 2011, 9:33 am…and Iceman, seriously did you understand the Southern Drawl or something was lost in the translation of your fictitious redrawing of borders…Either you are hanging around the top “Neocon Nazis White house Murder Inc” or HK.
Now tell me why do you not see clearly and are submerging yourself in a cloud?
Posted by danny | June 2, 2011, 9:48 amGK # 211;
Points well taken but Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland seem to be the only ones targeted by the raters…with more to follow next year. That’s the consensus in Europe about US rating agencies…
Where is Moody’s on this:
Horror for US Economy as Data Falls off Cliff!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43239586
Posted by HK | June 2, 2011, 9:55 amHK #217,
The PIIGS are the most vulnerable. These countries have done what we have done in Lebanon. They borrowed and borrowed and spent the borrowing inefficiently and on unproductive projects. The EU shares a big part of the blame for this, Sovereign debt in Europe is similar to subprime in the US. The European banks did not question the ability of these governments to carry this debt.They will not be the last ones Remember that the rating agencies added both the US and Japan to the negative watch list. It is possible that the world will not have a single AAA rated sovereign debt.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 10:06 amHK #217
I neglected to comment on the CNBC link. A number of the aggregate measures for last month were weaker than expected in an already weak economy but the economy is still growing while many of the economies in trouble are contracting and will not see any growth for a couple of years in some circumstances. If last month does not turn out to be an aberration then one would need to reevaluate.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 10:11 amDanny,
How many times I told you I am on the West coast BC. I don’t know if are in the Maritimes or the central where TO is in the middle of receiving ON. I only visit Quebec once in a moontime mostly for business.
Anyway, those statistics only prove that all of you are costing us so much. And believe me that Texan was dead serious. I am beginning to consider the merits of his proposalM. Only problem now is cowboy Harper is in Ottawa still bribing those BQ’s to keep them in for hateful TO to have leverage against the Yanks.
Posted by iceman | June 2, 2011, 10:16 amGK,
Thanks for your thoughtful commentary.
I am only voicing here what the Europeans are regurgitating daily…
The Europeans are saying out loud that US rating agencies are out to get them, one country at a time
CIA report talks of a possible military coup if the situation becomes more serious and uncontrolled in Greece….
Or is it that the Greek government (with the support of the opposition) will be telling their military to put down the unrest like in Yemen or Bahrain….if it should get out of hand…. Is this what the US is after in Europe too
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=report-military-coup-possible-in-greece-2011-05-29
CIA Now Thinks Greece Military Coup Possible — Business Insider
http://www.businessinsider.com/cia-now-thinks-greece-military-coup-possible-2011-6
Too much debt …. uncontrollable spending …. an unwillingness to do anything about it …. a perfect cocktail for a mess. But my concern is that if history is any indication, great economic dislocations and depressions were always followed by great wars …. hmmm …. one more worry to ponder on.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1393237/US-economy-Were-verge-great-great-depression.html
Posted by HK | June 2, 2011, 10:32 amWow you guys are truly big on digressions. ADD anyone?
Ghassan, since we’re on the subject of the Lebanese economy, what are the prospects for the LBP? Shall I buy an apartment on the corniche and take a loan in LBP?
Posted by Erasmus | June 2, 2011, 10:35 amDanny,
Don’t bother with Iceman. As I stated here:
http://qifanabki.com/2011/05/02/camille-otrakji-syria-protests/#comment-23373
“Friendly suggestion: why don’t you sort out all that mess that’s in your head before splashing it all over these pages.”
He doesn’t have a cohesive thought in his head.
Right now, he’s not sure if he should insult this province or that province because it is a Have-Not province or because it is Pro-American.
Given that he’s in the West Coast, earning his keep (apparently) from work related to the Oil industry (any surprise he loves the Saudis so much), he seems to have brushed aside just how pro-American they are.
Just moments ago, he complained to V, when the latter jokingly suggested invading Canada to improve economic performance in the US:
“That’s all you guys (V) are good for, right?”
Now, he’s changed his position to:
“And believe me that Texan was dead serious. I am beginning to consider the merits of his proposalM. ”
Does Iceman love America? Hate America? Is his “only” issue with HA that they allegedly assassinated some people? Or does he have other issues with them? Does he support the ouster of Saddam (America’s mistake being dismantling the army)? Or does he not?
Does he support the Baath? Yes? No? He says he doesn’t like Baath V1.0. But he likes the new Authentic Baath V2.0 that is coming up. What are the differences? Is he just a master sloganeer like his Eminence Hassan Nasrallah and Bashar Assad? Does he want the Arab world to live the next 30 years with more empty vacuous slogans? Yes? No?
Did Saudi Arabian diplomacy really fix the Yemen problem (since the US was cast aside and is irrelevant in the region)? This is an assertion he made over a month ago. But still there is war and killing in the Yemen. Has Saudi Arabian Diplomacy been an abject failure? Yes? No? Going back to HP’s question: Is that Robert Fisk article really that good? Does Iceman agree that Saudi Arabia’s regime is attrocious? Yes? No? Or is it, as he had said previously an “Honorable” Absolute Monarchy?
Wow. In this one post, I’ve posed so many questions. Don’t hold your breath for any answers.
Iceman doesn’t have the answers. Just lots of hot air.
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 11:10 amWho’s next on FPM list after Baroud? Could it be Riad Salameh?
Posted by IHTDA | June 2, 2011, 12:45 pmErasmus, every one lwould love to be able to now what will happen to the LL? At a personal level I would love to see it float. But I do not think that this is in the cards. The Lebanese situation is as dire as Greece, Portugal Ireland … except for one thing. The BDL holds 285 tons of goldvalued at around $15 billion.
HKThe stories and interpretations that trouble in Europe benefits the US are bunk. We live in a completely different world than that which existed 20 -30 years ago. The international economy is built on interdependence and no one will benefit from a weaker economy espacially if it is a major one. The worst thing that can happen is to have the US, EU or China go into a recssion. The connection between all the economies is imports. A weak US will not import as many things from China and Germany who in turn will cut down on production and import less from others. The same thing will happen in the reverse.
It is this interdependence that has made coordination a must between all the majors. They have no choice.
The Euro has not been tested up until this year and so far it has not done vey well. The Greek and Irish and Portugese fiscal problems might not have occured had they not joined the Euro and even if they did they would have been able to devaluate their curency. They cannot do that now. That is why the UK is in a slightly better shapethan Greece … The debt load is as high but most of it is denominated in domestic currency. It will come to pass that the decision by the UK not to adopt the Euro was an excellent one. This is not the place to get into a lengthy discussion about the political economy issues but the Euro was essentially created to keep Germany in check. Well guess what? It did not work. People forget the the Italians, the French and the British opposed German unification when it happened because they were concerned about a new “German question” and so they came up with the idea of harmonizing policies through the Euro. I think that the Euro will survive but many on the periphery will have to reconsider whether they are ready to compete with Germany whose monetary requirements are not identical to those of say Greece. My point is that the last thing that the weaker than expected US wants is a weak EU. Both of them need all the help that they can get in an effort to revive the economic growth. (which I am opposed to ideologically, but that is a different story.)
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 12:48 pmGK;
I fully agree with your general assessment of the interdependence of the new economies etc.
But what we hear day in and day out by respected analysts in Europe since the 2008 debacle is that it is ALL the US’s fault with the onslaught brought about by the Sub-prime mess, CDSs, CDOs etc. which triggered a massive weakness of major European banks, etc etc, which got accentuated after TARP, QE1, QE2, EU infusions into Banking and other Stimulus etc.
Then, everyone got caught up with their pants down following massive sovereign indebtedness which became unsustainable for most one at a time… and they are severely handicapped by what they see coming down the line. Germany is still best among all, but German and French Banks hold most of the PIIGS debt and they are at a loss on how to approach the Domino effect, which might undo the Euro!
Now, everyone is focusing on the Raters, because of the follies brought about with enormous interest rates that Greece, Portugal etc. have to cough out…and YES, most are saying that it will be inevitable for Greece to exit the Euro soonest ?
Nevertheless, most Europeans still think that their systemic well fare state subsidies on a large scale provide for a valuable cushion from social upheavals…but for how long?
UK’s economy is still very weak, but they were very good at instituting massive budget cuts and lay-offs in the public sector, and of course the independence from the European central banking is a plus for now!
Posted by HK | June 2, 2011, 1:12 pmThe following is the new ranking for countries likelihood to default. Each institute and organization has a slightly different ranking order but most agree on about 6-7 of the top ten. What is interesting about this ranking is that Lebanon is not among the top ten but Iraq and Dubai are in the upper half of the list:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34465366?slide=11
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 1:18 pmGabriel…
Iceman with hot air= water lol…
iceman…You are slipping and just making outlandish comments without factual back up. I guess you think your comments equate facts? BC was the recipient of payment for a few years…Check the facts. Your dream of being USA citizen or Amewikan is easily accomplished. Join the CIA…They need good people like you.
…and what’s your problem with Canada? Just a while back you were extolling its virtues and now you are firing scatter shot at every province. The oil boom will go bust soon and you still come begging to Central government for help. FYI BQ is in a trashcan….Sorry to disappoint you.
Posted by danny | June 2, 2011, 1:37 pmGK#225
Always good to see some sound reasoning. Excellent analysis re: currency issues and economics in Europe.
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 1:39 pmdanny,
Why do you always blow things out of proportion. I never said I want to become a US citizen. I could have become one long time ago. I only said I want to reconsider the Texan guy’s proposal. That is all. To see if there are any merits to it.
Posted by iceman | June 2, 2011, 2:33 pmIce #191,
I agree with you. The markets have spoken yesterday and I think will speak more tomorrow.
Posted by R2D2 | June 2, 2011, 2:36 pmDanny:
Don’t mind Iceman. People like him couldn’t build a country in Lebanon. Now they are here in Canada, and don’t know what the value of citizenship is. Really, they should
The mentality of “Us” and “You” is very much ingrained. We recall his context of using it in the Lebanon case “Without US, bla bla”. And now it comes again in the Canadian context.
Actually Alberta and the Western provinces were “have-nots” prior to 1947 and throughout much of the 1950s and 1960s. BC continued as a have-not province for periods in the 90s, etc.
Throughout this whole time, Ontario had never been (as it had never been in the entire history of Canada) a have-not, until this recent downturn.
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 2:43 pmI’m pulling out !!
Gold at $2500 no longer is Science Fiction.
Posted by R2D2 | June 2, 2011, 2:44 pmIncomplete sentance 1st paragraph:
Really they should strip him off his citizenship and send him off to Saudi.
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 2:44 pmGK,
Holding on to our Gold and the paper Dollar might be our saving economic grace
Posted by R2D2 | June 2, 2011, 2:47 pmI think it’s time to float the Lebanese pound.
Posted by R2D2 | June 2, 2011, 2:48 pmR2D2,
The thing about the debt limit cannot be overlooked. All this analysis is theoretical and most of it is propaganda to serve political agenda.
But the May, June, July downturns are almost a yearly event. You may want to check in early August as there could be an upswing during the fall till November.
In my opinion, the US economy is stagnant and structurally damaged beyond repair. The thing to look for and be worried about is the onset of deflation as alluded to in that article. When that happens then run away as it is the road to the abyss and that is when cataclysmic shifts will occur and protectionism takes over. All this talk about interconnectedness is fine and dandy but not when you own survival becomes at stake. For one thing, China only considers interconnection in as much as it can access your market in a one way sort of scenario. I wonder how long US and Europe can live with that.
A Canadian citizen who is also from Hong Kong and owner of sizeable manufacturing facility once mentioned to me two countries you cannot do business with: India and China. You sell them your system today, a year later they come back and sell you a copy of it, sometimes even improved, at 3%0 or 40% of your cost. Go figure how to connect with them.
…………..
Guys,
You may want to go back to Lebanon as OTV is predicting a government by the weekend. Mikati is not denying but looking for more forthcoming signals. IF it happens, then my explanation of the telecom saga was the right explanation.
Posted by iceman | June 2, 2011, 2:59 pmFloat the Lebanese Lira !!
Let Lebanese determine their country’s value and currency.
Posted by R2D2 | June 2, 2011, 3:04 pmWhy is the Lebanese Lira pegged to the US Dollar?
Doesn’t that say everything about Lebanon since we pegged to it ?
Posted by R2D2 | June 2, 2011, 3:13 pmFor all those reading:
What exactly is the point being made in Post#237?
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 3:28 pmR2D2 #233,
What is interesting about $2500 gold is the fact that it was the high in real terms set back in 1980. Anyone who bought then would break even when gold gets to 2500 if it ever does . Ouch.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 4:25 pmWhat took so long? Both Zahra and Jreisaty are referring to Article 69 section 3 of the constitution that compels the Chamber to be in an extraordinary session as soon as the cabinet is considered to be resigned. Has this same issue been mentioned on this very blog umpteen times over the past year and a half. That is baffling.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 2, 2011, 5:49 pmiceman,
Stop watching OTV…Just listen to us here. There will be no government until STL has issued its indictments…
Or you can listen to Wahab…and believe that there will be no cabinet till fall…
We have had these absurd every other week; so that they attack and blame each other. Utter nonsense.The maestro Bashar has not given the o.k.
Posted by danny | June 2, 2011, 6:40 pmDanny,
As it is becoming clearer every passing day the telecom fiasco had nothing to do with either OGERO as such or finances. It was all about the cabinet formation. The whole scheme was concocted to build up the beligerent credentials of Nahas in an attempt to keep him not only in the cabinet but as GMA would like at Telecom. Rifi might have acted against the letter of the law but aparently not against its spirit since the claims of Nahas have been refuted at every level. Yousef came back, OGERO challenged him to show that the network was working and he has failed to provide a viable explanation about why he had to do what he did. Why was he going to dismantle the equipment and what was he going to do with it and why was that matter so crucial that it had to be carried out in a mafiosi style. And the games go on.
Posted by ghassan karam | June 2, 2011, 7:03 pmThis popped up in my Youtube account because I had previously watched a Aoun clip:
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 7:27 pmGhassan,
Off course when the smoke clears and innuendo and misinformation from HA PR machine subsides we can all see the clear picture. It is more than any cabinet formation. It is dismantlement anything of substance that has been built and put together since 2005 that is not infiltrated by HA/Syrian agents. they are always after ISF because they have very little control over it. Same with Ogero.
I still am firm in my belief that there will be No government. Again; I reiterate that all M8 “actors” (including Sleiman and Miqati)serve at the pleasure of Bashar. If Bashar so decided a one colour M8 cabinet will be formed within hours.
Don’t expect anything else. All the other camouflaged rumours are just that!
Posted by danny | June 2, 2011, 7:28 pmGvmt/no gvmt
young’s take:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2011/Jun-02/The-void-in-Beirut-Who-really-gains.ashx#axzz1OAHMokOm
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 7:48 pmGabriel,
Young is echoing the sentiments that I have been harping on the past five months. It is about time that people see the total shenanigans that are being played publicly.
however, I don’t get the rationale of MY when he says:
” In other words the party needs a government in place that it can dominate, both to bless its weapons and help it absorb the aftershocks of a tribunal indictment and radical change in Syria.”
That’s so laughable I could cry. What stops such a government from collapsing if some parties abdicate? How does that give HA any power if Syria collapses and the fragile M8 cabinet splinters?
It is absurd!!
Posted by danny | June 2, 2011, 8:00 pmDanny…
Isn’t that why you keep asking Elias to bring this topic up and give possible scenarios?
I am not sure how things will play out. But I don’t necessarily think that with a new system in Syria, that this would necessarily translate to HA losing support.
I agree with you, I don’t think the M8 alliance would necessarily hold. In fact I suspect it would not hold when radical changes happen in Syria. I think it would turn all the alliances in Lebanon upside down and inside out. So I’m not quite sure what to make of things.
Posted by Gabriel | June 2, 2011, 9:32 pmGabriel,
I just feel sorry for the “resistance” camp when they run away and hide when crucial topics about the nation are discussed.
QN…I am still waiting for a post about post “ME revolutions” and its implications on HA and thus Lebanon…
It’s so quiet around today!!! I guess no spins!
Gabriel, I do not profess to have all the answers; but for sure I have stayed the line! Where the hell are the freaking analysts? Why are they not trying to comment on Hamza el Khatib and his death? Why don’t they scrutinize why his parents will show up on Syrian State TV and praise Bashar???
Elias wake up of the self imposed snooze!!! Ready for you and still waiting!!
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 12:09 amNaharnet reports:
“The United States has informed parties involved in the formation of the government that it had “vetoed” giving Hizbullah and its allies four main portfolios, al-Liwaa daily reported Thursday.
The newspaper said that the vetoed ministries include the interior, defense, justice and telecommunications portfolios.”
Let roar the righteous umbrage of outrage about foreign interference in Lebanese domestic affairs ……
………crickets………
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Who? said:
“If Lebanon had a twitter account, I think I’d probably stop following it at this point.”
9 hours ago
Posted by lally | June 3, 2011, 12:45 amDanny
Allow me to point out that Young was arguing for the exact opposite of what you and BV and others have said about the cabinet formation.
You guys say it’s all about the Tribunal and about Hizbullah not wanting to allow the emergence of the state, yada yada yada…
I said it’s about what’s happening next door (plus many other factors like Aoun’s lunacy, Hizbullah’s unease with going it alone without credible Sunni cover, etc.)
As for the piece you keep asking me to write… I have no idea what to say. Why don’t you tell us what you think?
Posted by Qifa Nabki | June 3, 2011, 5:59 amQN,
I said he is using the same rationale. However, he is wrong attaching it only to current turmoil in Syria. Lebanon would have stayed without a government even if Syria was peachy!
STL indictments if implicating Syria or HA cadres/agents will make a pariah state out of Syria if they don’t co operate. They need Lebanon in chaos to send those same messages MY was alluding to.
Now you have to take my word for it.
lally; is that unsubstantiated stupid rumour your only “proof” of foreign interference? You are really clutching at straws. Aren’t you? You still can’t see why Syria(WHICH IS A FOREIGN POWER)is constantly interfering in Lebanon eh? You guys are beyond hopeless…
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 6:37 am…and QN, I have been constant in my comments that Syria is the main engine not HA. HA alone can not take decisions unless they want to alienate their sugar daddy Bashar.
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 6:39 amQN,
Here is something interesting:
هناك من يشير إلى العلاقة السرية بين إسرائيل وإيران وإلى الجهد الإسرائيلي لدى الكونغرس الأميركي لوقف الضغط على النظام في سورية والذي تقول أوساط أميركية أنه قلّ في الفترة الأخيرة
Danny de Vito, your only constant has been that you are enamored with your sugar daddy Samir Geagea, the criminal assassin and thug in Chief, head of a CIA/MOSSAD proxy Militia. Take this buffoon back with you to Haifa soonest and spare us your dribble & lunacies. For your info, Bashar Assad is an insect, compared to the mighty Leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah makes its own decisions, independent of Iran or Syria, especially since 2006…Bashar is a mere figurehead with no executive power whatsoever, when it comes to crucial national security matters pertaining to the Alawite crime Syndicate. Syria is run by a thuggish Mafia from the shadows.
Posted by HK | June 3, 2011, 8:44 amGK;
DEBT CEILING: Moody’s just threatened to slash the US credit rating. Moody’s warns of rising risk on US credit rating….
http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-warns-on-us-debt-rating-2011-6
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43255117
Prophetic or what
Posted by HK | June 3, 2011, 8:54 amQN:
I said it’s about what’s happening next door (plus many other factors like Aoun’s lunacy, Hizbullah’s unease with going it alone without credible Sunni cover, etc.)
what’s going on next door is still going on. So are the rumors of a gvmt this weekend true then?
Also if HA killed Hariri as the STL seems to be suggesting what credible Sunni figure could back them? I’m sure they would like nothing better than legitimacy in every Leb’s eyes. But that’s not saying much. It is clearly no their driving force or they would have behaved differently.
Posted by Gabriel | June 3, 2011, 9:03 amHK,
Great dude.
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 10:07 amdanny.
There’s plenty of proof of Uncle Sammie’s “interference” in Lebanon’s family business.
But, some enabling family members simply refuse to acknowledge the debasement of their sovereignty by a perceived “benefactor”.
Posted by lally | June 3, 2011, 10:27 amHK #256
Technically the US can never ever default no matter how large the debt except if the congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Tea partyers are threatening to do that. This is very irresponsible since the debt ceiling is to pay for what the Congress has already approved. They have no right to repudiate previous expenditures but they are entitled to reduce future ones.
Back to your point though, I hope that this also demonstrates that the rating agencies are “equal opportunity employers”.:-)
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 3, 2011, 10:38 amDanny
Your argument remains unconvincing to me. If the STL target Syria or Hizbullah, the lack of govt in Lebanon does not really serve either of those two parties. Lebanon can be thrown into chaos whether or not there is a govt.
Gabriel
Rumors, rumors, rumors…
(If a govt is formed this weekend, then the only thing we’ll know for sure is that danny and BV [and AIG as well] were wrong about the factors preventing the deed from being done.]
Posted by Qifa Nabki | June 3, 2011, 11:04 amPS: We’ll also know that the regime has turned the corner on the protests to the extent that it now feels comfortable enough to allow its allies to move forward.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | June 3, 2011, 11:08 amQN…Time will tell who were right all along.
Don’t cancel your vacations anticipating a cabinet anytime soon. Enjoy the summer…or at least till end of July when the STL brings down the indictments and all hell breaks loose.
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 11:11 amQN, Danny,
Just to be clear, I predicted there would be no government long before what happened in Syria.
The main factor AT THE TIME was the STL and its impending indictments.
I think that is still foremost in HA’s thinking process, but as we all know, the Syrian uprising has added another twist to the issue. Of course what’s going on next door affects our cabinet formation process. I never denied that. I just don’t think that it’s the main cause. As Danny stated, I too believe that even if everything was hunky dorey in Syria, we’d still have no cabinet. But things being as they are today, it’s just more reasons why we won’t have a cabinet anytime soon. There really is no need for one, in the minds of some people.
I mean, the bills are still getting paid (kinda). Life continues on in Beirut. So what’s the rush? Nothing crucial needs addressing at the moment (not in my opinion, of course, but i mean in the eyes of those who are pulling these strings).
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 3, 2011, 12:47 pmQN/Danny/Gabriel
If I am to join the fray then I feel that I must stick to my hypothesis which is that most of the reasons that have prevented the formation of a government are domestic. Mikati cannot afford to be seen as another Hezbollah guy. He has to look independent and carry some heft in naming his own candidates to important posts. The same is true of the president. Hezbollah and the FPM were not counting on this and so they let GMA create the barriers.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 3, 2011, 12:53 pmIn other news:
“The Lebanese army has taken the firm decision to prevent Palestinians from marching towards Lebanon’s border with Israel on Sunday to refrain the Jewish state from launching an assault on Lebanon, An Nahar daily reported.”
http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/7527-firm-army-decision-to-prevent-sundays-march-over-fears-of-israeli-attack
I guess this time around, the army is acting a bit more responsibly then it did on May 15th. (I remember Ghassan and a few others, including myself, being outraged at the complete lack of planning at the time).
One has to wonder, though, if there is not a political hand behind both decisions. Both that allowing the demos on May 15, and that of forbidding them this time around.
After all, we all know the army doesn’t do shit without SOME kind of political directive.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 3, 2011, 1:05 pmGK,
Moody’s warnings are political theatrics in USA….
U.S. debt fight continues despite Wall St. warnings….
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_congress_debt_limit
The cabinet formation in Lebanon is a side show, they are all waiting for a shoe to drop in Syria…, but it’s a long shot, since Billary is still giving the Assad Mafia more time!
I am still predicting a very Hot Summer…
Posted by HK | June 3, 2011, 1:06 pmThrowing money and resources at a problem rarely succeeds if the culture and environment are not compatible with what the aid is supposed to accomplish. In MENA, Afghanistan etc,…. a culture of corruption, tribalism, and a long history of abusing foreign aid will result in a catastrophe and a total waste of money when Western forces and their aid managers leave. In fact …. I am more than willing to claim that even if one trillion dollars is dedicated to Afghanistan right now …. when you go back 10 years from now …. nothing would have changed…., and the same goes for MENA, from Iraq to Lebanon to Darfur. What will happen is the advent of Hundreds of Tribes with Flags all around.
Posted by HK | June 3, 2011, 1:10 pmQN Re:262
http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/7566-at-least-50-dead-as-syria-sees-biggest-demos-yet-on-childrens-friday
I guess based on your hypothesis; no government yet?
Ghassan,
There are multiple issues. However, Miqati was assigned the post after he visited Damascus the night before(see the reports in January, as well as Jumblat’s announcement that he choses to side with Syria…even though Miqati’s appointment should have been a local matter).
Now even if you go back to that date on QN when the cabinet was toppled; I had suggested two choices. Either a Karami government that will cancel all treaties with STL and subsequently resign or #2 No government for a long time. I remember BV choosing #2 starting from the gate!(we all know how long the karami thing lasted…and the remarks of the Supreme Leader Nassrallah on TV).
Ghassan, Aoun is playing to the constituents’ supposedly protecting Christian rights…. Mikati & Sleiman are nothing but yes men of Bashar.
Syria has the final say period…as long as we have mercenary militias like Amal and HA around don’t expect anything else. All the daily static in the papers and on the airwaves is just that. Idle BS.
I guess we agree to disagree on this issue.
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 1:11 pmDanny,
Yes we differ but not substantially. My emphasis is on the point that Mikati was not vetted thoroughly by HA. Obviously he has to have the green light from Damascuss otherwise he would not have been designated. I think that he found out that he cannot forma cabinet where he is only a figurehead. That would be political suicide and he also learned that if he is to take the HA stand against the STL then Lebanons standing in the international community will suffer. Let us not forget that Mikati is a Harvard graduate and a billionaire in his own right. Actually he might be wealthier than sa’ad Hariri. That is important because class dictates often beliefs and ideology. He cannot stand by and see all his wealth dimish considerably as a result of a war or international sanctions/pressure. I was not opposed to his designation from the start since I thought that he will try to impose a small(10-15) member cabinet of technocrats. I still believe that this is what he should do.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 3, 2011, 1:40 pmGhassan,
You hit the nail on the head with this statement:
I think that he found out that he cannot forma cabinet where he is only a figurehead. That would be political suicide and he also learned that if he is to take the HA stand against the STL then Lebanons standing in the international community will suffer.
This is precisely why I believe that HA never had any intention of seeing a cabinet formed. This is what I tried to argue in my back and forth with QN some time ago.
I still believe Karami was simply bait and switch. A Karami government who would repudiate the STL would have been a complete disaster for HA (not to mention everyone else).
It does NOT suit HA to openly repudiate the STL through a government they OFFICIALLY control. Because this isolates Lebanon internationally, which in turn hurts all the money flowing into Lebanon, including HA constituents, etc.
The best course of action for HA was to have a political vacuum. They nominated Mikati knowing full well that he would be incapable of forming a government for exactly the reason you stated (not to mention all the roadblocks they would have Aoun place in the way).
This was never a scenario of “HA didn’t know what they were getting in Mikati and he turned out to want some say.”
IMO, this was a calculated move all along: Nominate someone who was not Hariri, who would be immediately put in an untenable position of being between his community (The sunnis) and M8 and who could not conceivably take Lebanon into isolation by caving in to Aoun’s demands. Thus: paralysis.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 3, 2011, 1:56 pmI don’t think there is much difference in opinion. Let’s be frank about this. But some points.
One “Umbrella” brought down the government (Unity) on account that this whole “unity” business was being too obstructive to government functioning (official excuse).
They got rid of one PM: Hariri, and chose a ‘compromise’ PM, who got a green light from Damascus: Mikati.
Now we see that Mikati is trying not to look like a stooge (at least that’s what the optics of it is, or as GK says, he has to be able to pick a couple of posts, or as QN states, he has to have credibility with the Sunnis). Those are different ways of saying essentially the same thing.
So big picture. M8 brought down the Hariri government, so they can choose another Sunni PM who is not Hariri, but who, well… acts like Hariri.
What can we conclude from such reasoning?
Either:
(1) The Lebanese politicians are actually incompetent. They don’t know what the hell they are doing. They are being “reactive” as opposed to pro-active. They are taking it day by day.
(2) The Lebanese politicians know what they are doing. This is all part of a larger scheme. Maybe (as Danny is saying) to not have a government.
With Syria being the background player in all of this, I would find it very hard to believe that there is not some measure of calculation behind all of this. I would like to think the politicians are a little more seasoned than this.
While I am not necessarily saying that Danny is correct in his assessment. In the balance of probability, in my view, I think his prediction is correct, and a government will not be formed.
Posted by Gabriel | June 3, 2011, 1:59 pmBV,
Add to that: Miqati’s choice was to bust up the Sunni side of M14 at the same time. Miqati is richer than Hariri and most likely more articulate and even taller.
But Hariri has had his father blown up Not Miqati, The Sunni street and Dar alFatwa made that clear to Miqati.
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 2:06 pmBV,
Your point that HA knew all along that Mikati will not play the game and so will not form a cabinet is an interesting take. I never thought of that.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 3, 2011, 2:10 pmGK,
It’s only speculation on my part, obviously, but it makes sense.
HA has shown in the 20+years of their existence that they do not “react” and that their actions are often well calculated in advance.
It is hard for me to believe they brought down Hariri without really thinking out the consequences and having a plan in place.
They are not so stupid as to ignore the fact that any M8 PM would not be representative of the Sunnis and that a patsy like Omar Karami wouldn’t fly. I believe Mikati was their choice all along. And I don’t believe he was brought in because HA thought he’d actually form an M8 Government (as I’ve argued before, an M8 one-color government does NOT suit HA at all).
Mikati was simply a tool to bring forth a power vacuum.
They figured he was independent enough not to be painted a patsy like Karami and that the Sunnis and the “west” would not veto him outright, thus avoiding international isolation.
While at the same time, making sure that Mikati would never be able to form a cabinet on his own terms (or else, the technocrat cabinet would have already happened) by putting forward all kinds of obstacles (Aoun, portfolios, etc.)
Put it this way:
1- HA does not want M14 in complete charge (STL issues).
2- HA does not really want an M8 only cabinet (international isolation, sanctions, losing constituency in the face of new economic troubles, etc, M8 becomes accountable for governance).
3- Solution: No cabinet. This way HA get to have their cake (no M14, no STL) and eat it (they aren’t accountable for anything and still get to blame M14 for everything, including, ironically the lack of government).
Win-win for them.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 3, 2011, 2:39 pmEverything follows from what I (humbly
) call AIG’s first postulate of Middle East Politics:
You can have economic growth or you can have “resistance” but you cannot have both.
Hezbollah are stuck on the teeth of this truth and are not willing to make a choice.
Posted by AIG | June 3, 2011, 2:41 pmCorrect AIG,
With one correction: They don’t HAVE to make a choice, because apparently, they can have it both ways: Not be in charge of the government and therefore accountable, etc…AND still call the shots.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 3, 2011, 2:55 pmSHN must be a masterful/Machiavellian tactician, strategist, politician, military Leader, Religious Scholar, excellent husband and father to so many…Brilliant!
] How long will the thugs, Maher, Makhlouf, Kudsieh, Mamlouk, Ghazaleh and Asef Shawkat are going to continue to have a grip on Damascus, Halab, Hama & Homs…that’s the Trillion Dollar Question 
You guys are wasting bandwidth, they are ALL waiting for extraordinary news from the Damascus Mafia… Period!
But it ain’t coming soon, except if the Damascus population rises up EN MASSE. If that happens, all bets are OFF.
Today, Damascus is policed 24/7 with one Mukhabarati per person, otherwise it would have exploded already…[ That's from people in the know
The Infamous White House Murder INC, has not YET given up on the Assad Mafia…, they would like to suck them dry…Hence Billary’s obfuscations and the Silence Radio from DC & Tel Aviv!
Night, Night!
Posted by HK | June 3, 2011, 2:55 pmYou guys have terribly bad memory.
Miqati accepted the post with the full intention of blowing up the STL. You need to review an ICG report QN posted long time ago where Miqati may have had an indirect role in it.
Miqati accepted the offer after promising HA he’ll do it. Later on he found out he couldn’t do it. HA understood that he cannot do it and they are just playing along. There is no master plan or anything of that sort. It is just crisis day-to-day management. So you do not need to employ wild imagination.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they eventually form a government that will not get vote of confidence in order to become a care-taker government when they find it has become to their advantage to do so. The question then who may have an interest in replacing a Hariri care taker with a Miqati care-taker?
LBC today quotes Miqati sources advising against over optimism.
QN 262,
On what basis you say the regime has turned the corner on protests?
I fail to see that. Today’s protests were the largest ever and the most widespread. Even battered Dera’a went back to protesting. Over 67 protesters fell in 7hama alone today and over 60 in Rastan fell in the last 3 days. The Rastan figure even shows protests are no longer limited to Fridays.
Posted by iceman | June 3, 2011, 2:55 pmIce…
No illusions. No government! Capische?
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 3:01 pmAIG #276,
Why Israel is able to have both?
Posted by Badr | June 3, 2011, 3:25 pmSenior U.S. officials say Washington’s tempered response to the Syrian crackdown has been driven by fears that Assad’s overthrow could unleash even wider sectarian violence or War…. American allies in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel have expressed similar fears. There’s also a belief among some in the U.S. government that Assad will weather the current storm no matter what the U.S. does.
“He probably has the wherewithal to be sitting in the palace for quite some time,” said a senior administration official….
Mr. Kerry gave an address on the Middle East in Washington and again raised eyebrows by heaping praise on Mr. Assad. A few days later, Mrs. Clinton fueled even greater anger among Syrian human-rights activists by echoing Mr. Kerry’s line that Mr. Assad might yet embrace reform….
Washington’s Infamous White House Murder INC, continues to cling to a hope that the Syrian thugs could be rehabilitated and used again in the US/Ziocon assassinations Matrix in the Levant…
# 281; Israhell can have it both ways because it is the “Chosen” one by Hasheem the All-mighty
Posted by HK | June 3, 2011, 3:38 pmHK,
Refresh yourself.
You are so outdated it’s not funny anymore!
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 3:52 pmKerry is a dem, right danny?
You know that Texan might be right after all.
Posted by iceman | June 3, 2011, 4:18 pmYup….texan again…like dubya….He was right too always!!!
Posted by danny | June 3, 2011, 4:24 pmHello everyone
Even though they disagree with each other, I’m much more persuaded by Iceman and Ghassan’s diagnoses than BV’s. The current void, like all recent voids, is most probably based less on a master plan than day-to-day crisis management (as Iceman put it) and improvisation. When we look back to the 2006-08 cabinet boycott, we saw the position and demands of the March 8 alliance constantly shifting. One minute they were willing to reconcile with Saniora if a compromise candidate (i.e. Sleiman) was picked as president, and the next minute they wanted a blocking third with no necessary agreement over the president. Eventually, it took Doha to force a deal.
Hizbullah went with Miqati because (as Iceman pointed out) he was making the right noises about the STL (saying things like “Stopping the Tribunal is no longer a Lebanese decision, but cooperating with it is another matter.”)
Hizbullah needed someone who had enough credibility in Lebanon and abroad not to be painted as an Axis-of-Resistance Prime Minister, but also someone who would find a way to finesse Lebanon’s non-compliance with and rejection of the STL’s published indictments. They didn’t have that many options, so they held their breath and picked Miqati.
Since then, he has certainly come under tremendous pressure from the US and the Gulf states, reminding him of what would happen to Lebanon and to his own stature in Lebanon (as Ghassan convincingly argued) if he simply played the role of Hizbullah’s figurehead. Let’s not forget that the protests in Syria had not yet started when Miqati was appointed. Today, Bashar is looking a lot less secure than he was four months ago and his opponents in the region and farther afield are feeling more confident about the tactic of isolating and pressuring his regime (a tactic which he was able to withstand fairly handily between 2006 and 2010). The Syrian-Saudi “deal” that was reportedly in the works before Hariri’s premiership went belly up is clearly no longer on the table, so Miqati doesn’t have a lot to work with.
That’s a long way of saying that I DON’T buy the argument that Hizbullah has wanted an open-ended political vacuum all along (as BV has argued) or at least until the STL comes out with its indictments (as Danny has argued). I could be wrong, and as you all like to point out I have been in the past (at least I’m willing to admit it!) but, again, I’m sticking to my guns.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | June 3, 2011, 4:39 pmQN,
I’ll ask a simple question:
Has Hezbollah, in it’s history, seemed to you the kind of organization that operates on a “day to day management” kind of mode?
I’m not saying they don’t occasionally make mistakes in their calculations (2006 anyone?) and have to improvise no the fly to get back on track, but overall, have they ever seemed the kind of organization to be so shortsighted as to bring down the cabinet without having a proper plan behind it? Come on…We should all know better. HA’s plans are often far reaching and hatched years in advance. We’ve seen how these guys insinuated themselves at all levels of the Lebanese state and methodically took over most of the crucial institutions (Army intelligence, airport, etc.). We’ve seen how they slowly and patiently built up their parallel communiation networks and spying abilities and all that.
We’ve seen how they went from a token splinter movement in Amal to monopolizing the “resistance”, the South and the Shia. You really can’t argue with their slow and calculated approach.
I find it REALLY hard to believe they randomly brought down Hariri and went into “day to day crisis management mode” about this whole cabinet business.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 3, 2011, 5:06 pmIdontgetit !!
Has GMA fathered a child, out of wedlock, with the Shi’ite housekeeper?
Posted by R2D2 | June 3, 2011, 5:08 pmNo one wants to comment on my story link about the Palestinian protests being “shutdown” by the Lebanese Army this time around?
Here’s another one…Does our dear friend Alex care to comment on the reports that the protests in Hama today brought out 50,000 people?
Are these still 300 “bad apples” and thugs?
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 3, 2011, 5:10 pmQN:
Iceman, believes, as stated in
http://qifanabki.com/2011/05/29/lebanons-political-honeypot-whats-behind-the-telecoms-spat/#comment-24890
that HA doesn’t care about Lebanon, or its government, or if a government is ever formed.
As I said before. The alternative theories being forwarded aren’t really all that different!
On a couple of your points:
(1) “Since then, he has certainly come under tremendous pressure from the US and the Gulf states, reminding him of what would happen to Lebanon and to his own stature in Lebanon (as Ghassan convincingly argued) if he simply played the role of Hizbullah’s figurehead”
You think Mikati woke up one morning, “since HA’s decision to go along with Mikati, because they didn’t have that many alternatives”. and discovered… Hey this is going to be more difficult than I thought it would be!
. Come on guy. Given how much kerfuffle took place to appoint him (all those demos that were planned), I’m pretty sure Mikati knew what to expect!
(2) “Hizbullah needed someone who had enough credibility in Lebanon and abroad not to be painted as an Axis-of-Resistance Prime Minister, but also someone who would find a way to finesse Lebanon’s non-compliance with and rejection of the STL’s published indictments.”
Well if HA cared about such a government role (as opposed to Iceman’s assertion that HA does not care about Lebanon or its gvmt), then why did it not press its allies to play ball with Mikati.
Posted by Gabriel | June 3, 2011, 6:04 pmBad Vilbel Says:
June 3, 2011 at 1:05 pm
“In other news:
“The Lebanese army has taken the firm decision to prevent Palestinians from marching towards Lebanon’s border with Israel on Sunday to refrain the Jewish state from launching an assault on Lebanon, An Nahar daily reported.”
http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/7527-firm-army-decision-to-prevent-sundays-march-over-fears-of-israeli-attack
I guess this time around, the army is acting a bit more responsibly then it did on May 15th. (I remember Ghassan and a few others, including myself, being outraged at the complete lack of planning at the time)”
and
Bad Vilbel Says:
June 3, 2011 at 5:10 pm
“No one wants to comment on my story link about the Palestinian protests being “shutdown” by the Lebanese Army this time around?”
Well . . . .I will comment. This is one of the most shameful things I have seen in the last months and is a tragedy. Has it really ever been more blatant that only The Heroes of the Resistance are willing to defend Lebanon while the LAF thinks its job is to defend “israel”? All Arabs should be ashamed of this. What right does the Lebanese army have to defend the Zionists? Moreover, can you March 14 robots explain how it is consistent with your democratic “values” to deny people their right to martyrdom in the name of Palestine? Or are you more interested in helping zionist Hasbarah?
Posted by dontgetit | June 3, 2011, 7:02 pmGabriel,
Exactly. I am surprised that QN, Ghassan and others seem to have this somewhat naive idea that both HA or Mikati “woke up one morning” and realized that things weren’t as they expected.
These guys have been at this a few rounds already. They all knew exactly what they were up to and what to expect. These theories are really not making much sense.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 3, 2011, 7:32 pmBV,
Just a question on the whole HA not wanting to form a cabinet. Is there a time frame on that? or is it indefinite?I would assume that certain realities would incline HA to form a Government, perhaps not in the current state of affairs but atleast soon, for its constituencies sake and its allies sake.
Posted by maverick | June 3, 2011, 7:59 pmdontgetit #291,
If your remarks are intended as sarcasm then you better say so:-) If they are not they they are devoid of any form of logic whatsoever. How is it possible to interpret an action that is designed to respect international law and prevent bloodshed as “shameful tragic and defense of Israel”. Would you really prefer a scenario where the army abdicates its responsibility and allows demonstrators to violate an international border with a country with whom we are at war? Would you rater create an international incident of unprecedented that will be expensive in terms of blood and treasure and that will accomplish nothing? The real tragedy is that you think that allowing civilians to violate the sanctity of an international border and expose themselves to harm is a good thing.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 3, 2011, 8:02 pmdontgetit’s “Right to Martyrdom Video” NewZ
Would you rater create an international incident of unprecedented that will be expensive in terms of blood and treasure and that will accomplish nothing?
GK,
Isn’t that what jihadists want? The ability to fight Israel despite the cost and injury? Certainly killing Jews is more favorable than the killing going on in Arab contries like Syria.
As dontgetit stated, martyrdom is the goal. And in a country with no government and no army, it’s anyone’s guess who strikes the first match. Maybe our hero will be none other than dontgetit.
Dontgetit,
When will you be recording your martyrdom video? We want to help you. Is there an address where we can send you some money to cover the expenses and training?
Shukran.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 3, 2011, 9:20 pmBV/Gabriel,
We are all speculating in order to get a better understanding of how things work. Unless an insider decides to write about what has happened then we will probably never know the real story. Chances are that none of us has the true explanation but yet let me answer the point that both of you seem to have raised in your last posts.
If HA is mainly interested in a vaccum then whynot just paralyze the cabinet as they have done in the past? I think that they have learned from the past experience and were ready to have a cabinet that will serve their agenda directly. They were and still are interested in derailing the STL or when they found out that they can it they wanted at least the official Lebanese cabinet to be on their side. The other issue that they wanted and still do is a continuation of the ministerial statement that has regrettably recognised implicitly the weapons of the military arm of HA.
When they had the support of Aoun, Jumblatt and the so called Sunni opposition they gambled on getting an acceptable Sunni to lead the cabinet.
Their calculations did not pan out. The only 2-3 possible names were rejected by most immediately. That is when Mikati offered himself as a candidate. He has not been close to HA but he had close relations with Damascus. I think that these were motivated by personal business more than ideology. Mikati did not agree to their specific conditions directly but hinted that a solution can be found. When he was told in no uncertain words by the Mufti that any compromise on STL is not acceptable and when I suppose most Western embassies conveyed their governments negative attitude towards a belligerent Lebanese cabinet in addition to the fact that he had to have at least Safadi in the cabinet and possibly young Karami he began to run into problems Keep in mind that Safadi has ambitions of his own but he again is a wealthy person who does not have a history of being pro the resistance.
As you can see , to use an Arabic proverb, Tajri al riyaho bima la tashtahi alsoffonou ( wind does not accommodate the sail boats).
HA wanted a cabinet and were willing to give some leeway but did not expect or forsee the effect of the combination of Mikati + Suleiman + no resolution of STL ministerial statement.
In my opinion HA has been in the fight of its life for over a year and I do not think that they are winning. In my opinion they have become weaker and might become weaker still if Syria experiences a regime change which is looking more likely. This is already much longer than I had intended:-)
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 3, 2011, 11:25 pmAP
I have meant to ask you this question for some time but I keep forgetting. Have you seen the few photographs of the helicopter that was lost during the OBL operation? If so have you any opinion about how advanced the design might have been or maybe the photos did not show enough details to pass a judgement? It is rumoured that these helicopters , used by the seals, incorporated many advanced secret technologies. I no longer read Aviation News which used to be my source for such developments.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 4, 2011, 12:01 amGK:
(1) I agree. All this is speculation
(2) I don’t think that HA is seeking a vacuum. I agree with Iceman, I don’t think government is Lebanon is high on their priority list (either existence of, or lack thereof). They tend to their own affairs, and simply want a Central government that will let them be.
(3) I agree with BV that it was never in HA’s interest to have a gvmt that is seen to be too closely associated with it. This means, at the very least, that it was to HA’s interest to delay the formation of a cabinet.
(4) All these delays work, imho, to Mikati’s favor. He’s less likely to be seen, with the passage of time, and with arguments and drama with other groups within M8, to be a more independent figure. This is something he could not have had when the Hariri gvmt was first brought down.
(5) I don’t think that things are necessarily calculated. But these are politicians. It may simply be that things come naturally. But I cannot accept statements as the one made by QN earlier that Mikati “suddenly” realized it was going to be tough after he was thrown into the fire, and after he was somehow approached by Saudis and Americans.
(6) In that respect, I do think there is a day-to-day crisis mitigation going on, from the parts of people like Mikati or Aoun. But not from the part of groups like HA, or in the background, Syria. That is not to say they are actively trying to stop cabinet formation. But at the very least, you can say they are taking a disinterested attitude to it (they’re in no rush).
(7) Events in Syria will make gvmt formation in Lebanon less likely.
That’s a summary of how I see things.
Posted by Gabriel | June 4, 2011, 12:29 amPoint (4). Correction: Mikati, with the passage of time is less likely to be seen as a stooge of HA/Syria, and more as an independent figure.
Posted by Gabriel | June 4, 2011, 12:34 amThe real brilliance of Hezbollah thus lies in its cold rationality. It will no doubt pose severe challenges to the region and the world, but will be very careful that no one action, by itself, will be blatant or outrageous enough to elicit an existential threatening response. Moreover, assuming it does not act in a truly extreme manner, it will most likely enjoy enhanced immunity to counterattack for most of the actions it takes over the coming years, including whatever response it will entertain against STL’s Shenanigans…thus added credibility and enhanced popularity globally, notwithstanding what happens to the Assad Mafia in Damascus…, because when there is a will, there is always a way
The point being still, Government formation at this crucial junction and the Great Game being played in MENA is a side issue and a nuisance at most!
Posted by HK | June 4, 2011, 1:58 amI have no love for President/dictator Saleh og Yemen but the latest twiat in the Yemeni “revolution” is not encouraging at all. I have been a skeptic about the Yemeni revolution right from the get go since I was not comfortable that the movement will end up in liberalizing the system.
The attack on the presidential palace yesterday was planned and carried out by the Ahmara who are the ones that created president Saleh over 30 years ago and who are on the same side in most issues. The AlAhmars have coopted the popular grassroots revolution. It looks very likely that Saleh will be driven out but essentially replaced by someone from within his group. Saudi Arabia would not have it any other way, neither would the US. Another Arab Spring uprising hits the dust.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 4, 2011, 6:28 amGK,
For your info, the Yemeni population count is half the population of the GCC in the Arabian peninsula. If chaos takes hold in Yemen, the whole area will be directly affected one way or another.
Posted by HK | June 4, 2011, 6:38 amOBL’s Dance with the Seals
I have meant to ask you this question for some time…
GK,
No, I just heard that the US Govt requested the Paki govt for a return of the tail. I have no idea what’s in the tail.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 4, 2011, 9:58 amAP
The following is from Aviation week:
“It was a secretly develo”ped stealth helicopter, probably a highly modified version of an H-60 Blackhawk. Photos published in the Daily Mail and on the Secret Projects board show that the helicopter’s tail features stealth-configured shapes on the boom and tip fairings, swept stabilizers and a “dishpan” cover over a non-standard five-or-six-blade tail rotor. It has a silver-loaded infra-red suppression finish similar to that seen on some V-22s.”
This probably explains the surprise element.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 4, 2011, 11:38 amGK,
The H-60 Blackhawk seems much larger than what we saw at the Abottabad CIA/ISI Safe House…
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/sikorsky-receives-3961m-in-h60-black-hawk-contracts-01774/
Posted by HK | June 4, 2011, 12:07 pmMichael Young’s article on the Govt. formation stalemate offers some interesting insight to the discussion.
http://michaelyoungscolumns.blogspot.com/
Posted by R2D2 | June 4, 2011, 1:19 pmJihadist Utopia Part Deux
HK,
How is the warm friendship between Hezbollah, Iran and Syria going? I haven’t heard much from them lately.
http://observers.france24.com/content/20110603-angry-syrian-protesters-turn-iran-hezbollah
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 4, 2011, 2:07 pmR2D2,
See #247 …
Posted by danny | June 4, 2011, 2:13 pmAP, # 307
It’s probably not as good as the close relationship between the Ofer Brothers, ZIL, David Yaakov and the Iranian Government for Decades
Posted by HK | June 4, 2011, 2:31 pmSorry about the Typo, Read: ZIM
Posted by HK | June 4, 2011, 2:38 pmI think HNA would allow Miqati to form a government that bans Star Academy.
Posted by iceman | June 4, 2011, 2:46 pmIt’s probably not as good as the close relationship between the Ofer Brothers, ZIL, David Yaakov and the Iranian Government for Decades
Well you got me there HK. Allah knows the Iranians could have converted container ships into high-grade fissionable material, scuds or grad missiles. In any case, it’s good to see that Iran will at least do business with the Zionist Entity while they cal for her destruction.
Anyway, you have to admit Daddy Ofer’s sunglasses are a whole level better than the Colonel Gadfly’s…
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2075452,00.html
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 4, 2011, 2:53 pmI was thinking today, QN should hold a party for his readers sort of an annual get together? We could all flock to Boston or if y’all come over to Miami I’ll buy few rounds of mojitos.
Posted by V | June 4, 2011, 3:18 pmdanny #308,
Thanks to Hassouna and 3aw 3aw, who honestly only have the interest of Lebanese and Lebanon at heart (really …!), I am spending more hours on airplanes ( … again!) than comfortably on my couch following this blog.
AIG will be pleased that, one way or the other, I will be putting money into Jewish pockets again … instead of into my fellow countrymen’s.
Posted by R2D2 | June 4, 2011, 3:24 pmThe days of duopoly utilities contracts (natural gas in Egypt; telecommunications in Syria and Lebanon) acting as private cash cows for one faction or another will likely become increasingly difficult to maintain – and it is thanks to the sunlight of media transparency like what we are reading here, the emergence of meaningful courts (in Egypt & Tunisia)& parliamentary scrutiny – due to start soon in Cairo & Tunis!
There is no doubt to me that the al-Assad regime cannot survive long the economic implosion currently occuring in Syria – its departure will be impetus for democratic development – like removing a blockage in a pipe, its departure will be like allowing a rush of fresh water through the system!
That’s the picture I take after five months of regional protests in favour of more accountable, representative forms of government. Parties/factions that had prospered in the vacuum of lawful governance will lose their relevance – that has implications for M14 as well as March 8.
With the rule of law in Egypt and Tunisia commencing, it shouldn’t be long before the laggards in Syria, Yemen, Libya follow. These developments should have only positive implications for rational politics and consumer rights in Lebanon – until now, mafiaso factions have been the vehicles for both “government” & “resistance”, but these factions are daily losing relevance as legal, rational accountable governmental decision-making alternative arise in the region.
That’s been the trend over the past 30 years in Iberia, South America, Indonesia, Turkey, Taiwan, almost the whole of east Asia.
It is the turn of south west Asia and north Africa!
Posted by Jean Estiphan | June 4, 2011, 3:29 pm… off course Jimbo also needs my special thanks for stealing the one and only time I thought it was important to vote in Lebanon in my life.
Posted by R2D2 | June 4, 2011, 3:30 pmWhere is Lebanon’s Atatürk?
Posted by R2D2 | June 4, 2011, 3:38 pm“Tel Aviv: Thousands rally in support of Palestine. Leftist organizations hold march in Central Tel Avis under the banner ‘Israel says yes to a Palestinian state”
Do the Arabs anywhere in the Arab world be it intellectuals, political parties or NGO or any individual DARE or have the freedom to rally or voice support for peace with Israel or for Israel’s right to exist in the region ?
Posted by V | June 4, 2011, 3:46 pmJean E. # 315
Excellent statement, but let me note that you left out from your list, Jordan, Bahrain, KSA, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Iraq, Morocco, Algeria.
I am assuming that it is just an involuntary omission
Posted by HK | June 4, 2011, 3:59 pmV,
What right are you talking about? The biblical right?
Are you serious ?
Dude, either complain to the Europeans and let them find an alternative for housing arrangements for you or cut a deal with the Palestinians.
Posted by R2D2 | June 4, 2011, 4:03 pmDo the Arabs anywhere in the Arab world be it intellectuals, political parties or NGO or any individual DARE or have the freedom to rally or voice support for peace with Israel or for Israel’s right to exist in the region ?
V,
No, because they’re brought up to hate only 1 thing.
Everything else is just a minor irritant (like freedom of speech).
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 4, 2011, 4:11 pmAP,
Really ?
It’s not like Palestinians have the key to Ali Baba’s cave that Lebanese, Syrians and Iranians are going to be rewarded with, blissfully, once the displaced Palestinians get to return to the homes and farms they have been living on and cultivated for 2000 years.
On what basis would you like me to voice support for the current state of Israel?
As a devout Christian, perhaps?
Armageddon?
Posted by R2D2 | June 4, 2011, 4:27 pmChina Has Divested 97 Percent of Its Holdings in U.S. Treasury Bills (That means: The shit is about to hit the fan)
Date: Saturday, 4-Jun-2011 00:24:54 China has dropped 97 percent of its holdings in U.S. Treasury bills, decreasing its ownership of the short-term U.S. government securities from a peak of $210.4 billion in May 2009 to $5.69 billion in March 2011, the most recent month reported by the U.S. Treasury….
When is it going to hit the Fan?
Posted by HK | June 4, 2011, 4:35 pmHK,
Probably on HK’s 75th anniversary of birth … although I am not sure how many you are going to be able to recruit to manage that event to coincide with the precise date.
I’d suggest campaigning for an audience with your other hero, SHN.
The two of you might be able to work something out.
Posted by R2D2 | June 4, 2011, 4:44 pmAgain, blaming everybody else, except the Arab themselves.
“Dude, either complain to the Europeans and let them find an alternative for housing arrangements for you”
The European will tell you that first the Arabs will have to take care of more than 700.000 Jews kicked from the Arab countries between the start of the ethnic cleaning (100% finally in most Arab countries) of Jews in 1941 in Iraq till this year in Yeman and Bahrain. The Arabs kicked them from: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yeman, Egypt, Libya, Magreb. So many of them went and created Israel.
Posted by Rani Hazbani | June 4, 2011, 4:49 pmFrancis Fukuyama ‘s new book (see a book review by NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/08/science/08fukuyama.html) contains a segment in which he discusses at length a theory of development that was presented by Huntington over 40 years ago. I am ashamed , as a professor of economic development, that I had not heard of this theory before. I will not put anyone to sleep by a lengthy discussion of this theory but these 40 year old ideas offer an excellent explanation of the current Egyptian uprising. It is difficult for me to say this because in general I have been very much opposed to Huntingtons’ ideas of the 1990′s.
If anyone is interested in getting a quick and clear discussion of this theory and its applicability to Egypt then you can find a 5-7 page excerpt in the current issue of American Interest, which coincidentally is chaired by Fukuyama.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 4, 2011, 4:53 pmReally Rani ?
You buy into all of that?
Whom are you going this sell crap to? Lebanese? Syrians? Iraqis? Egyptians? Europeans? Turks? Asians?
Place your bets on Mitt Romney.
Posted by R2D2 | June 4, 2011, 5:03 pm# 324,
I certainly do not need your advice , and no matter what I do or don’t do, at least I don’t feel the need to splash my flying schedules over QN and I am not in the business of recruiting anyone for anything.
Posted by HK | June 4, 2011, 5:35 pmReally ?
R2D2,
Really. Post some links showing all the Arab-Israeli peace organizations per V’s comment above.
After that, I’ll show you links of many pro-peace Jewish and Israeli groups.
It’s not like Palestinians have the key to Ali Baba’s cave that Lebanese, Syrians and Iranians are going to be rewarded with, blissfully, once the displaced Palestinians get to return to the homes and farms they have been living on and cultivated for 2000 years.
R2D2,
Ali Baba’s cave notwithstanding, the Palestinians and the despots that have hijacked their cause have done everything in their power NOT to make peace. Otherwise, how else do you explain no Palestinian state before 1967.
The Palestinians have been living off billions of dollars of international aide (including Arafat) and their leadership is satisfied with the payouts. I guess today’s ME issues highlights the fact that the problems with the Palestinians are really not Israel, they’re Arab leadership and intransigence.
On what basis would you like me to voice support for the current state of Israel?
Peace? Freedom? Two small things like that.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 4, 2011, 7:00 pmYa ghabi ya R2D2,
Had you not been a complete idiot, an anti-Semite, and a typical Lebanese racist scum bag (who probably abuses his Sri lankan maid) i would have considered engaging you in a discussion as to why Israel has the right to exist.
A Bigot like you, who views a whole group of Lebanese (The Shi’a) from the same old perspective of a elitists, feudalist 7aqeer and m3afen should start working on accepting and tolerating fellow Lebanese before regurgitating nonsense about Jews and the Israeli Palestinian conflict.
Posted by V | June 4, 2011, 7:00 pmThanks V.
q:o)
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 4, 2011, 9:01 pmSorry for this irrelevant interruption of important discussions. I just had to say…
… I make the best ثوم on planet earth.
Posted by Gabriel | June 4, 2011, 9:21 pmثوم
Gabriel,
Google Translate says you make garlic?
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 4, 2011, 10:44 pmAP,
If I’m not mistaken, I think Gabriel is referring to a garlic based spread that is used when we eat roasted chicken.
Posted by Ras Beirut | June 4, 2011, 11:16 pmI would love that garlic recipe, Gabriel. I’ve always failed miserably at making that…
On another note: I fully agree with the summary you posted in #298. Good conclusion to our HA/Cabinet formation discussion, IMHO.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 5, 2011, 1:38 amAvez-vous remarqué que nous venons de vivre un mois formidable !!
Un véritable conte de fée Hollywoodien par excellence…
la princesse s’est mariée
le méchant a été tué
le vilain est en prison
Carla Bruni aka Blanche Neige est enceinte d’un nain !
Posted by HK | June 5, 2011, 2:15 amOpportunism like denial and evasiveness has many expressions, in politics regrettably often bound up with rhetorically persuasive if not grandiose eloquence…
Just a few years ago, the American Government sent persons it wanted
severely tortured, in spite of the best US experts’ categorical advice to the contrary, to Damascus and Cairo etc, where the local security services would take care of the matter. The illegal practice was
expressly and publicly endorsed by America’s foreign secretary,
Condoleezza Rice, and the monster Dick Cheney.
Now there is another foreign secretary, Hillary Clinton, and all the while the same sadistic Syrian security services has got new customers….Like former Egyptian intelligence chief and vice president
Omar Suleiman, Kusa was a regional point man for the CIA’s “extraordinary rendition” and torture program that used Middle
Eastern nations like Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Jordan, and [Syria, Via Asef Shawkat, CEO of the infamous White House Murder &
Renditions INC, in the Levant] as IA/MOSSAD partners….
The new foreign secretary, evidently like her boss a strong believer in looking forwards, has got an obsession: sensing the
opposite direction the wind is blowing from she cannot help repeating her favorite phrase “being on the right side of History” again and again.
Billary got the mantra from president Carter’s former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski who in 2008 agitated for this brand-new and wonderful, much more favorable position for the USA ‘on the right
side of History’ in connection with the new anti-authoritarian ’global political awakening’ facing the ongoing global liberation from despotic regimes, not just in the Arab world but all over the planet…
This was an amazingly uncontested, but certainly, to speak in decent terms, daringly opportunistic U-turn for the author of the book, ‘Between Two Ages: America’s Role in the Technotronic Era’ stating that “Society would be dominated by an elite … (who) would not hesitate to achieve its political ends by using the latest modern techniques for influencing public behavior and keeping society under
close surveillance and control”. A few years after the publication of his book, Brzezinski contributed to transform America into exactly this kind of partly secret, tyrannical sheeple control society. It has
lived and thrived there ever since developing into a harsh and cruel Orwellian society.
When the brave and hard-suffering Syrian people before long have ousted the criminal president Assad definitively while unquestionably deserving their position on the right side of history, the politically
awakening world now even including the European and North-American societies will be facing a new round of liberation struggles, this time against the Ziocon brand of cruel politics that has to end for ever.
Israel is a tyranny. Israel is a system of Apartheid based upon racism.
To be a Jew means to have certain DNA, How about the killing and torture of Palestinian residents of Israel and Palestinians in Jewish Concentration Camps?
How about the endless war of aggression on its neighbors for decades and the occupation of their lands?
How about the illegal land grab in the West Bank, Shebaa/Kafarshouba and the Golan?
Israel is a lost cause and so is Zionism.
But in this global political awakening process, even an ever so impressively, shamelessly cynical American government and foreign secretary can hardly count on getting away with claiming a much envied
position on the right side of history.
On the contrary, it is an inescapable and undeniable fact that president Kennedy’s ignored and little understood coup d’état in 1962 making the satellite payloads of rocket launches secret also enabled
Brzezinski’s covert surveillance and control society to be realized on
such a large scale.
Rubbing our aching, incredulous eyes half a century later at the coming global political awakening, it will become glaringly obvious to everybody that the deceiving American government decade after decade with remarkable stubbornness insisted, although secretly, to be on the
wrong, tyrannical side of History.
Posted by HK | June 5, 2011, 2:40 amتحذير من تقسيم مصر ثلاث دويلات
كشفت صحيفة “الشروق” المصرية ان القوات المسلحة لديها وثائق تشير الى مؤامرة لتقسيم مصر ثلاث دويلات. وقالت إن عددا من قادة القوات المسلحة التقوا ظهر الأربعاء الماضي ممثلي “ائتلاف مجلس قيادة الثورة المصرية”. وقال العضو المؤسس في الائتلاف محمد عباس، ان ممثلي “ائتلاف مجلس قيادة الثورة” اطلعوا في اللقاء على وثائق تؤكد “تعرّض البلاد لمؤامرة من أطراف داخلية وخارجية” لم يسمها.
واوضح “أن هذه الوثائق تكشف أهدافاً عدة، هي الوقيعة بين الشعب والشرطة لإغراق البلاد فى الفوضى، والتأثير على الحالة الاقتصادية والاجتماعية، والوقيعة بين الأقباط والمسلمين لزعزعة استقرار البلاد، وإظهار مصر في صورة سيئة توحي للعالم بوجود فتنة طائفية”. وتهدف “المؤامرة” ايضا الى “الوقيعة بين الشعب والجيش لمعاقبة القوات المسلحة على وقوفها إلى جانب الثورة وحمايتها، وأيضا التأثير على القوة العسكرية للدولة وإضعافها”.
وقال الجيش ان “الهدف النهائي من كل ما سبق هو تفتيت مصر إلى دويلات صغيرة: دولة نوبية في الجنوب، وأخرى مسيحية في الصعيد، وثالثة إسلامية في شرق البلاد، على أن يتم طرد الفلسطينيين من قطاع غزة إلى سيناء لتحدث حرب ثلاثية أطرافها مصر وفلسطين وإسرائيل، في إطار خطة أوسع لتقسيم الدول العربية مثلما حدث مع السودان والمحاولات التي جرت في العراق وتجري حاليا في ليبيا، وحتى تصبح مصر في غاية الضعف أمام اسرائيل بحيث يكون الكيان الصهيوني هو مخلب القط في الشرق الأوسط الجديد كما هو مخطط له
Posted by HK | June 5, 2011, 3:12 amV #330,
As to my Sri Lankan slave …
I only lock her up in a windowless dungeon, once I feel the bruises on her knees may prevent her from active cleaning duty the next day.
Posted by R2D2 | June 5, 2011, 4:51 amGaby,
When’s the BBQ?
Posted by danny | June 5, 2011, 5:36 amAP,
Most likely, Israel’s next Prime Minister …
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/more-israeli-arabs-would-have-been-killed-in-2000-riots-had-i-been-in-charge-1.365954
Posted by R2D2 | June 5, 2011, 6:05 amGabriel,
Don’t give away too much, before you know it, an Israeli company will sprout and produce it en masse….and then down the line claim it as their own.
Posted by maverick | June 5, 2011, 7:25 amKSA should work on a new slogan to portray it as the last refuge of dictators when they have no place else to go.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 5, 2011, 8:10 amGK,
I have a feeling that soon enough Obomba is going to request asylum in the Wahhabi Kingdom.
I am still predicting a very hot summer.
What the new criminals in Dc and Tel Aviv have in mind will make the deeds of the thug Dick Cheney look like a walk in the park!
Posted by HK | June 5, 2011, 8:45 amRH, 325, you can’t be serious?
We are talking about the Palestinians here… not the Arabs. Why do you want the Arabs to deal first with the expelled Jews before hoping a settlement with the Palestinians?
It’s like holding all Jews on planet earth responsible for the treatment of Palestinians
That sound strange to me, as strange as your assumption that all Arabs are the same, and that the Palestinian kicked out from Jericho is just a by product of the Jew kicked out from Algier lol
If you really want to know more on how absurd is this comparison, please take just 10-15 min to go trough this (long) article:
http://prrn.mcgill.ca/research/papers/shenhav.htm
V #330,
I am not an idiot, as an Arab I just can’t be anti-semite and I’m not Lebanese. So please enlighten me about this right to exist?
R2D2 #341,
What a charming personnality indeed..
Posted by 3issa | June 5, 2011, 8:59 amHK #344,
I am up to your tricks, you love to exagerate in order to shock your audience when you are a very sensible person:-)
Anyway, there is nothing that I would like more than to have Darth Vader move to KSA. Not Gw though, I think that he should stand trial in the US.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 5, 2011, 9:53 amGK,
” Not Gw though, I think that he should stand trial in the US.”
You made my day, my week, my decade of agony since GWB… I Love you man
I agree that he should stand trial in USA wholeheartedly!
You take care, I know that you too, you are a very sensible person:-)
On my next trip to the US, I will look you up and call you to invite you for a one on one, I think that we have quite a few things we agree on Quand meme.
Posted by HK | June 5, 2011, 11:20 amHands off W!!!They should build a monument in his honour. Stop heaping all the blame on the fearless leader. Mission accomplished.
Posted by danny | June 5, 2011, 12:13 pmMiss Me Yet?
GK,
I’m one of the few who liked Cheney and GWB. I miss them both.
Years after the war in Iraq, I still think it was the right thing to do. Equally so in Afghanistan. Many of these arab/muslim countries are so unstable, the jihadists use them for cover. I suspect we will have permanent bases in Iraq and Afghanistan until these governments can deal with the jihadist insurgents themselves.
I would love someone to try to put Cheney or GWB on trial. They may as well put on trial the whole UN, which permitted armed intervention into Iraq with UNSC 1441.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_1441
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/dec/20/iraq.foreignpolicy2
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 5, 2011, 12:19 pm#349, what a bunch of crap and cheap propaganda. How can an adult believe in that bullshit? You should be ashamed for supporting these crimes. What makes me sick is that you firmly believe in that lies,,, the world that you are living in is so terrible and dangerous. I do maintain my position, you are a morron.
Posted by 3issa | June 5, 2011, 12:42 pmWhat is a third rate reporter like Rima Maktabi doing on CNN?!
It hurts having to listen to her.
Posted by R2D2 | June 5, 2011, 1:46 pmAP,
You are so wrong that it is not even funny. Putting W on trial has nothing to do with the UN resolutions.
The case would revolve around what he knew and when did he know it. There is so much evidence that he has deliberately misrepresented the record in order to decieve. That is an unpardonable crime. The winningest prosecutor in US history is Bugliosi and he has written a book detailing the procedures of accusing W of murder. That is what he did when he used false pretenses to send all these young people to their death.
If he felt very strongly that Sadam was evil and should be removed then he could have gone to war on these issues but not by telling lies, absolute lies, convenient lies, lies that have cost lots of death among Americans and Iraqis.
Legally he is not above the law but I understand that this case cannot be brought by an individual citizen otherwise it would have been. This case must be broiught by the stae on behalf of its citizens and unfortunately so far no AG has stepped forward. This in my opinion was the biggest mistake of the Obama White House. They should have pushed for a trial two years ago. I am still hopeful that things will change and that a group of state AG’s will bring forward such a case. If the courts then find him innocent then so be it but until then he is guilty as charged by the court of public opinion.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 5, 2011, 4:14 pmI simply cannot let this day go by without reminding the readers of the Naksa and the bad treatment that the Palestinians are subjected to in Lebanon. I know that this topic has been discussed many times before but today is its anniversary and I think that it would not be such a bad thing to be reminded of our duties towards our fellow residents.
http://rationalrepublic.blogspot.com/2011/06/palestinian-refugees-deserve-better.html
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 5, 2011, 4:55 pmAP- there was no such thing as Al Qaeda in Iraq until after the US invasion. With this fact in mind, do you still believe it to be a justified war and why?
Posted by Nasser V | June 5, 2011, 5:25 pmGK, Nasser, I admire your patience, but, excuse my language, you are just pis**** in the wind if you want to argue with such brainwashed idiot.
Posted by 3issa | June 5, 2011, 5:39 pmAP reminds me of those photos taken during the 2006 war depicting school children scribbling on war heads headed to Lebanon. Brain washed is an understatement.
Posted by maverick | June 5, 2011, 5:50 pmI like it when arm chair generals like 3issa pontificate on what is right and what is wrong in the Arab World. Why don’t you ask a family from south Iraq if what GW did was right or wrong of if he wasn’t a blessing from God as far as they are concerned?
Why not ask none other than Al Sistani for example about the Americans and their role in freeing millions of Iraqis
We never heard you complain when Saddam was tormenting all his victims, where were you and your Al Jazeera? Or are you one like our fearless Iceman who considers anyone who isn’t a Sunni expandable?
Wake up from the Arab Nationalism and Baathist propaganda yourself and smell real freedom which you never had and never will have unless you immigrate to Europe or the evil USA you complain about
As for Israel’s right to exist I will enlighten you with this
Whether you like it or not, Israel exists since 63 years and will continue to do so and there is nothing you or the whole Arab World combined can do except come to terms with this reality and make peace with the entity you tried to drive into the sea and failed miserably like your many other failures as a nation.
Posted by V | June 5, 2011, 6:00 pmThere is some new polling out from Egypt on:
http://www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/147902/BRIEF-BILINGUAL-Egypt-Tahrir-Transition.aspx
One thing I noticed is big rise in people’s confidence that peaceful protest as the sole means of effectively receiving redress: Around 80% today compared with around 50% three years ago.
Also, Egyptians are almost as open as Lebanese when it comes to the question of whether you would mind a person of another religious faith moving in next door: Lebanon 76% OK with that; Egypt 67% OK with that – bottom of this table, not surprisingly, saudi arabia and israel the so-called ‘islamic kingdom’ and so-called ‘jewish state’;
National Democratic Party’s 10 per cent support in Egypt (versus 9% for Wafd, Muslim Brotherhood on 15% and Wassat at 5%) – the NDP’s level of genuine support in Egypt, I wonder if that is about the level of support the Baath Party would get in Syria in a genuine election over there?
Posted by Jean Estiphan | June 5, 2011, 7:05 pm357#, guess what buddy? there is some Arabs like me who sometimes do cares for their fellow Arabs. Call it what you want, its a fact, a genuine feeling and not an outmoded ideology of any kind.
So don’t blame me for caring about what people like you have made of Iraq. Not that it was perfect, but ones may look at the situation before and after the West invasion. So if I look, I see that a brutal dictatorship has been replaced by even more brutal daily violences.
And between those 2 situations, a barbarous war has been inflicted to the Iraqis.
Do you have any idea on how much people died during the hostilites (officialy ended now) ?
Do you know that all the infrastructure of Iraq has simply been destroyed?
Did you get a chance to get some infos about today’s health system? not to mention the constant fear everywhere?
I can’t hardly find any blessing from God here? Please choose your word carefully.
How dare you ask me to be neutral, even support the Iraq war? Are you nuts?
“We never heard you complain when Saddam was tormenting all his victims, where were you and your Al Jazeera?”
You just don’t have no clue about that, so please keep your mouth shut.
—
Anyway, beside that rubbish, I was expecting a more convincing answer concerning that right to exist…but nothing, zero, except: since it exists, it has a right to !!!
)
You are bringing sophism to another level
(by the way dude, I never said the US was evil…oh wait. actually, it is the US who said Iraq was evil lol)
Posted by 3issa | June 5, 2011, 7:20 pm3issa,
The only one who needs to keep his mouth shut is you. Before you go make idiotic claims about how Iraq is worse than it was during your hero Saddam’s era, try asking the Iraqis if they are better off or not and not simply rely on Al Jazeera reports and brobaganda
Sure every war have a price and there are many innocent victims, but let’s see how many were killed by Zarqawi and company?
The USA wasn’t planting bombs and killing
innocent men women and children in weddings or “husseiniyas” it was your fella Arab holly warriors, compliments of your buddy Bashar Al Assad.
I have the honor to have spent 4 years in Iraq and contributed to its Liberation and met countless Iraqis who are very grateful to the USA.
My simple enlightenment on the Israeli subject is modeled for idiots like you who were born yesterday but still caught in the same failing ideology of their grand fathers, try something new.
Posted by V | June 5, 2011, 8:06 pmoh God, I give up
Posted by 3issa | June 5, 2011, 8:10 pmNasser, Issa, etc:
Where were all of you chaps when Alex (Camille) was 3am yafdi ru7u w’damu la Bashar
. The poor guy was desperate for your assistance.
Nasser (specifically).
It appears you subscribe to Baathism V1.0. Sorry dude. These version is no longer supported. You need to get with the program and learn about Baathism V2.0.
For more details, you will need to consult QN’s resident expert on all matters Arab, Arabist, etc: His name is currently Iceman, but was Anonymous previously:
http://qifanabki.com/2011/04/20/how-sectarian-is-syria/#comment-22440
According to him “Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia” was created by Syria
. So you really ought not to blame the Americans for their sudden appearance into the scene.
Issa:
I had to go back to when you first recently started to see if you had anything specific to say to Alex regarding Syria. But sadly, found nothing
.
So I’m not clear. Do you support the status quo in Syria?
This is the logic that people like Alex use to argue that Bashar should stay put and reform. Would it inaccurate to assume that you hold the same position, based on this comment you made re: Iraq?
Posted by Gabriel | June 5, 2011, 8:14 pmNot all Arabs have lost their honor. Even a zionist rag lik eThe Guardian cannot help but show the wisdom of The Resistance’s strategy of exposing the butcherous nature of israhell:
“One demonstrator who was wounded that day told the Guardian the Lebanese militia Hezbollah had given him $50 to turn up at the border and $900 to have his gunshot wounds treated by physicians.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/05/israel-syria-violence-border-protest
So long as their are martyrs who can be encouraged to show the zionists for the barbarians they are, the cause of the Palestine will not be lost.
Posted by dontgetit | June 5, 2011, 11:17 pmGK,
I’m writing this on my cell phone so I’ll keep it short. There is no proof, as you claim, that the Bush Administration “deliberately misrepresented the record in order to deceive”.
Let me remind you that ALL the information the Bush administration had was shared with congress and reps in the intelligence committees. Let me also remind you that these congressmen, like Hillary Clinton were also for the war in Iraq as it was debated in congress.
V,
Let me know where to send the check;) shukran
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 5, 2011, 11:28 pmlol @ AP
Just let me in on the secret of controlling the Banks, Media, Congress, the White House and the World
Buwahahahaha
Posted by V | June 5, 2011, 11:44 pmIndependent poll on Egypt shows very large gap has developed between Egyptian people’s level of optimism versus in other Arab societies with authoritarian regimes (as measured by responses to question: ‘is the country headed on the right track’.
http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2011%20June%205%20Survey%20of%20Egyptian%20Public%20Opinion,%20April%2014-27,%202011.pdf
89% of Egyptians say their country is headed in the right direction, even as they also say that cost of living and income has gone down.
Soon we’ll have accountable and contested parliamentary systems in Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Iraq and Libya. Like my flatemate and other friends that have a lot to do with Syria, there is no question in my mind that Syria will be next – I have no doubt about that at all. It is just so painful that so many people have to die or get smashed out in the process by a regime on its last legs lashing out to protect privilege.
I really look forward to watching the impact that the arrival of democracy in the region will have on the ‘islamic republic’, the ‘islamic kingdom’.
It is just so funny to listen to the Saudi apologists trying to justify their smashing of democracy in Bahrain as if this was a strike against Iran! If KSA wanted to deal a blow to Iran, it would have offered 100 per cent support to the democracy movement in Bahrain – it would be evidence the Shiia Arabs can achieve accountable and legal governance with a Sunni king, unlike the shiia ‘islamic republic’ which offers the the people of Iran no such thing.
It is very funny to listen to the apologists for Iran saying that they support ‘freedom fighters’ and ‘resistance’ – even as they support a regime in Syria which is nothing more than a sectarian and reactionary protector of the priviledged interests of one community (the alawi) over those of the other communities of Syria.
Lebanon has many opportunities to develop once the Syrian regime collapses. For 90 years, Lebanon has been the most democratic society in the region and it is time for the next big step forward in terms of some significant constitutional reforms.
Posted by s al-riachy | June 6, 2011, 12:28 am“Lebanon has many opportunities to develop once the Syrian regime collapses”
Don’t worry, the wily Pols in Lebanon will find some other excuse to keep the country in stagnation.
Posted by maverick | June 6, 2011, 2:01 am“Berri to Ad-Diyar: The session is in the books until Judgment Day.
The FPM asserts: We have sent names.
Mikati’s office responds: We did not receive anything.”
The only explanation I can possibly find is that Uqab Sakr intercepted it.
Now you see how important it is to have good control of telecommunications, in a country with outer-space political distances like Lebanon!
Qifa, it’s been so long without a Qnion…
Posted by mj | June 6, 2011, 2:18 amJe préférerais généralement éliminer un adversaire mauvais avec une balle honnête plutôt qu’avec un canular malhonnête, made in USA’s Zioconned Dark rooms…
Posted by HK | June 6, 2011, 2:22 amThere are some people who are shocked to learn that White House spokesmen issued 935 documented falsehoods to lie us into the barbaric White House Murder INC, the inside Job of 9/11, the Iraq war, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Gaza & More to come soon… This says nothing of the far greater number of lies told to create the “war on terror” itself. If it wasn’t for the flowing river of lies known as the “US Government,” we would not now be staring down the barrel of the nuclear gun at another innocent Muslim country. It took thousands of dedicated war party disinformation agents, working non-stop for decades, to give substance to the myth of al-CIAda, the official justification for the wars. It has taken many thousands more to sustain the war based on utter lies, against an imaginary enemy. It is only another small step to extend those lies about wars against imaginary enemies to Iran, an imaginary enemy with imaginary nuclear weapons.
Bush, Obomba and both of their Congresses have chosen to ride the raging river of lies known as the war on terrorism like lunatic “surf-Zionazis,” blinded to the dangers swimming just beneath the surface, oblivious to the destruction left in their wake. The humongous bills for the wars and for the destruction, killings, extra-judicial assassinations that the Zioconned USA have sown is coming due, before the end goals are met – before the world war can be jump-started. Strategic alliances are falling apart in reaction to America’s obvious goal of total world domination, Clean Break and full spectrum dominance…
Posted by HK | June 6, 2011, 6:41 am#325 Rani Hazbani says Lebanon expelled Jews, but that’s not accurate. Most Lebanese Jews left in the civil war – to France, Canada, Brazil and New York, but they, their children and their children’s children have an inalienable right of return. And people own property still in Lebanon and some come for holidays.
Your post also says Maghreb Jewish community was expelled – you need to meet some Jewish people from Morocco. Many left for a better life in the democratic West and in Israel, but no one has lost their right to live & work in Morocco – nor their children and children’s children. Moroccan nationality is passed down and isn’t broken – regardless of the religion.
I hope the move toward democracy in Tunisia, Egypt – and hopefully Syria and elsewhere in the region, should be good for Jewish-Arab relations in the future. I heard on the radio a story about an Italian-based psycholgist called David Gerbi (born in Libya) who is helping the resistance hospitals in Bengazi and he was quoted as saying he hopes to be a voice for the revival of Jewish life in Libya. Good for him! He sees a future in a free country, free from tyranny.
The deterioration in Jewish-Arab relations is an unfortunate consequence of the success of the Jewish national movement in Palestine. Yehouda Shenhav has done excellent research on the topic which you would find interesting to read.
http://prrn.mcgill.ca/research/papers/shenhav.htm
Posted by s al-riachy | June 6, 2011, 9:12 amhttp://www.jewsforlebanon.org/
http://www.thejewsoflebanonproject.org/
Posted by HK | June 6, 2011, 9:41 amhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2011/Jun-06/Hezbollah-says-major-Cabinet–hurdles-overcome-Mikati-cautious.ashx#axzz1OVWpbbCp
The theatrics continue.
Gemayal has a nice new term apparently for Government. The “Salvation” government. Not to be confused for a Unity government.
Bizarre
Posted by Gabriel | June 6, 2011, 10:55 amThe deterioration in Jewish-Arab relations is an unfortunate consequence of the success of the Jewish national movement in Palestine.
s al-riachy,
I take a deterioration of Jewish-Arab relations in exchange for the Jewish National Movement in Palestine, any day.
And if that causes some Palestinians and Jihadists to indiscriminantly target civilians, that’s not our fault.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 6, 2011, 11:28 amAll Hell is breaking loose in The Idlib region of Syria. Gunmen ambushed Syrian security forces killing more than 80.
Syrian commentators are accusing the Turkish government, US Forces in Iraq and Israel of training, arming and helping the Syrian rebels logistically and directly on the ground… They are also saying that injured rebels are being treated in Turkey, with the full knowledge of Erdogan!
I am still predicting a very hot summer indeed…
Posted by HK | June 6, 2011, 12:46 pmI’m so scared of that summer.
Posted by 3issa | June 6, 2011, 1:10 pmJibril #362
Well, I’ve clearly stated that reform in Syria are not possible by the current regime. I didn’t asked anything to Alex because you guys have covered the topic very well… I rather pointed out that Alex is just full of illusions about the regime.
So, to your question, I say no, no status quo in Syria.
And yes, it is inaccurate to conclude that I supported the status quo in Iraq.
However, it is equally inaccurate to may think that a violent military invasion, the systematical destruction of the country and its occupation (God, 9 years now!), is a positive thing.
It’s like asking you that if for the sake of removing your beloved Bashar (sic), you will be ready to treat Syria and the Syrians as badly as Iraq and Iraqis have been treated.
Oh wait…Would you?
Posted by 3issa | June 6, 2011, 1:19 pmSyria: Body count in Idlib stands at 120.
Explosion in Sin El-Fil, Beirut?
Posted by HK | June 6, 2011, 1:23 pmIssa:
Issa, this is not a position on the war. This is a retrospective view on the war. 9 years ago, before the Americans went in, did you support the “idea” of removing Saddam? Yes or No? This has to be the starting point on any discussion on Iraq!
Suppose (since you now have clarified your position in support of ousting Bashar)… it takes 9 years of protracted warfare. If the Turkish army gets involved and the whole thing becomes a mess. Will your position opposing Bashar change?
That’s what I’m asking you. I’m trying to understand your position.
Posted by Gabriel | June 6, 2011, 1:33 pmWhat I would support is Bashar to be ousted by its own people. Period. Same thing for Iraq. Same thing for every country where the people are oppressed by the ruling elite.
And you? What if you have to choose between a foreign intervention or a grass rooted uprisings to topple the regime?
Posted by 3issa | June 6, 2011, 4:18 pmApologies for not answering all the hanging rebuttals from Gabriel, Bad Vilbel, et al. Rest assured, you are all still wrong and I am still right, but you’ll have to take my word for it.
In the meantime, here’s something to chew on from state media next door (courtesy of Mideastwire):
“Final formula 19-11 and gov. before June 8 or no gov. this summer”
On June 6, the state-controlled Al-Watan daily carried the following report: “Numerous political circles as well as the March 8 and March 14 teams have started to get the impression that there will be no government in the near future or before the month of September, and that the reasons which led to the non-formation of the government are still in place in addition to internal and external factors falling under two main headlines: The domestic imbalance which is the first of its kind since 2005, and the regional imbalance due to the detonation of the Arab revolutions and which is also the first of its kind since the American entry to Iraq in 2003. And although the media office of Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati issued a statement in which it assured that Mikati had not yet received the names of any candidates from the blocs to poll their opinion, and that any other talk was an attempt to cover up the truth…, four domestic factors emerge d on the political arena and contributed to the resumption of the formation process to secure its accomplishment within a few days, not exceeding June 8. These factors are:
“1- Birri’s threat to use the parliamentary card and activate its role to fill the governmental vacuum.
“2- The Future Movement’s threat to activate the work of the caretaker government.
“3- Junblatt’s threat to withdraw from the new majority while paving the way before this step with a series of political warnings.
“4- The improvement of the climate between President Michel Suleiman and General Michel Aoun following the “Telecommunications Ministry incident,” which led to the resolution of the most prominent predicament that faced the formation of the government, i.e. that of the Maronite representation and Aoun’s share in the Cabinet.
“According to the information, “Aoun’s share” was allocated – after negotiations and back and forth talks which lasted weeks – based on the following: Ten ministries to the Change and Reform Bloc, including eight portfolios and two ministries of state. Aoun would also keep the Ministries of Telecommunications and Energy, while the Ministry of Defense would be indirectly under his control via his ally Franjieh, considering it will be handled by former Deputy Fayez Ghosn. These are the main ministries, in addition to others such as the Ministries of Industry and Tourism. In the meantime, the Ministry of Social Affairs is still the object of competition between Aoun and Junblatt, while the solution resided in granting the Ministry of Labor to whoever is deprived of the latter… On the other hand, there are four Sunni seats for Prime Minister Mikati, in addition to Minister Muhammad al-Safadi (Tripoli), Walid al-Daouk, Ahmad Tabbara (Beirut) and one for Junblatt which will proba bly be given to Deputy Ala’eddin Terro from Iqlim al-Kharroub.
“Moreover, a last attempt will be made to resolve the problem of [former] Prime Minister Omar Karame through the appointment of his son Faisal as minister or the appointment of someone who would represent him from Dunniyeh or Akkar. If this attempt fails, a shift will be made toward the representation of the West Beqaa through a person close to Abdul Halim Mrad. There is also a Druze complex related to Deputy Talal Arslan’s condition to participate in the government, i.e. to be given a ministerial portfolio (likely the Ministry of Immigrant Affairs) instead of a ministry of state. Consequently, the governmental formation has finally settled on the 19-11 formula based on the following:
“- 19 for Aoun and Franjieh [and the other components of March 8].
“- 11 for the centrist bloc (Suleiman, Mikati Junblatt).
“The 19 portfolios will be allocated as follows: 10 for Aoun’s bloc, three for Amal, two for Hezbollah, one for the Nationalist Party (Shi’i), one for the Sunni opposition, one for the Democratic Party (Arslan) and one for an independent (Fattouch). As for the 11 portfolios, they are allocated as follows: Three for Suleiman, five for Mikati (four Sunnis and one Orthodox that will be given to Nicolas Nahhas) and three for Junblatt (two Druze and one Sunni).” – Al-Watan Syria, Syria
Posted by Qifa Nabki | June 6, 2011, 4:34 pmIssa:
You’re giving me general answers and asking general questions! How on earth am I to divine your thought process in this. And vice versa. What could you possibly learn with such open-ended questions?
My quick-answer view is that obviously I would choose a grass-rooted change as opposed to foreign intervention.
But I suspect most people would have the identical view.
Was that your question, or were you asking, if ever I would think foreign intervention is acceptable? And the next step of course, would be to ask whether it was acceptable in Iraq….
Before we go there though… what are your feelings about:
-> Current military activities against Qaddafi?
-> Saudi Arabia’s army being sent to Bahrain?
-> The military ouster of Milosevic and bombing of Belgrade? The arrest of Mladic?
Posted by Gabriel | June 6, 2011, 4:38 pmare you trying to label me or what?
Posted by 3issa | June 6, 2011, 4:52 pmQN,
That story brings nothing new to the table.
I’ve still got my money on the “or no gov. this summer” portion of the title.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 6, 2011, 5:12 pmEvery time, I tell myself I’ll stop commenting on Hassan Nassrallah’s speeches. And every time, it’s too damn good to pass up.
Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah stated on Monday that Sunday’s Naksa Day clashes at the Golan Heights are further evidence of the American administration’s agenda to “steal Arab wealth.”
Steal Arab wealth? Really?
This buffoon is trying to convince me that the wealthiest country in the world is only interested in stealing our riches? What riches?
Should we compare the GDP of the USA to that of any Arab country?
Should we compare the percentages of wealthy people? The degrees of literacy? The degrees of unemployment?
Hassan Nassrallah. You’re a buffoon of epic proportions. I cannot believe anyone still takes you seriously. The fact that nearly a third of the Lebanese population does is a testament at how idiotic and ill-informed the Lebanese people are.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 6, 2011, 5:51 pmIssa #383.
Not sure if that was directed at me (can’t be anyone else really).
I don’t label or judge (and if I’ve ever labeled, it was only ever in jest). I’m trying to understand your position.
Are you simply always against foreign intervention? Against foreign intervention in Iraq specifically? Against it for specific reasons?
PS. If you’re not cool with having this discussion, we can leave it here.
Posted by Gabriel | June 6, 2011, 6:31 pmQN,
You are wrong…and you have to take my word for it.
Now you are bringing a most reliable Watan? have you joined in with Alex for a misinformation bureau?
Now hear this. Lebanon might not have any more governments until a total fissure in the time continuum.
Trust me. I am right!
Posted by danny | June 6, 2011, 7:54 pmI’m with Danny on this one…QN is WRONG!
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 6, 2011, 7:55 pmBV/Danny
Let us make this interesting. I think that this tragicomedy will have to end maximum by the end of June even if it must be essentially a cabinet of 12-15 technocrats.The loosers will make a contribution to a charity chosen by the winner. Any takers?
Posted by ghassan karam | June 6, 2011, 8:26 pmIn order to maintain my status as an objective mediator, I will not partake in the betting. But I will charge you a 5% bookie’s fee.
I will respond to one point made by Gabriel and BV regarding my argument about Miqati, and then it’s time to move on to the next post (which is up).
I am not suggesting that Miqati was appointed and then woke up one morning and realized it was going to be tougher than he had hoped to form a govt. You have to remember that he was appointed before the region went belly-up. It was shortly after Tunisia, but before Egypt, before Yemen, before Syria, etc.
My sense is that the chronology went something like this:
(a) Hariri was supposed to come through on a vague Syrian-Saudi deal on the STL, which he decided he couldn’t do (either because of his own inability or because of US pressure).
(b) When the Syrians saw that Hariri had crossed them, they let Hizbullah go forward with their plan to dump him and his govt, and pressured Jumblatt to follow suit.
(c) Hizbullah had to go with Miqati because no other Sunni figure would have worked. They would have either been too divisive or laughably unrepresentative of any Sunni constituency in Lebanon.
(d) So they picked Miqati and he took a risk, like any shrewd businessman. He figured that he could try to pick up the pieces of the S-S deal where Hariri had failed, but by then the Saudis were no longer interested and the process became hopelessly mired in domestic Lebanese agendas (i.e. Aoun’s bid for power). He probably also believed that he could find a way to bring Hariri into a national unity govt but the latter would not even speak to him.
(e) By the time that Miqati started to get a handle on the domestic issues and worked out an agreement with Aoun and Sleiman, the region had exploded and Syria was facing a major rebellion.
The moral of the story is that this whole process has been the victim of many different factors: Aoun’s intransigence; typical Lebanese politicking and “consensual” BS; Miqati’s calculations and negotiations about the cabinet statement and the West’s response; and YES, the events next door must be playing some kind of role.
I do not believe that it can be boiled down to a Hizbullah plan to create a perpetual vacuum… that does not serve their long term interests in Lebanon whatsoever. It is absolutely in their interest to have a (barely) functioning Lebanese state that legitimizes their own status and mission. A headless pariah state that looks beholden to Hizbullah (and by extension, Syria and Iran) makes it too easy for the West to punish Lebanon as a whole, which then threatens the Hizb’s popularity.
But anyway… this has gotten old. So let’s move on.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | June 6, 2011, 9:47 pmQN:
Unless I’ve misunderstood BV’s and Danny’s position, I reiterate my previous point. There is really not that much difference in opinion here. We’re arguing over minutia.
Yes, a gvmt will be formed. End of June? End of July? End of August? GK’s idea to make it fun is fun
. I think far too much is going regionally to know when this date is for sure. Tomorrow, the day after or next week, who knows.. we may receive crazy new news from Syria that will change the whole dynamic.
Posted by Gabriel | June 6, 2011, 11:12 pmGhassan,
End of June? I’ll take that bet! There will not be a government this summer.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 7, 2011, 12:49 pmGhassan,
Firstly: No technocrats exist in Lebanon that are “neutral”…
Second: I think you will have to donate a lot to the charities. No government for the foreseeable future. As I sad until there is a serious breach in the space time continuum… :p
Posted by danny | June 7, 2011, 2:06 pmBV,
You are on.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 7, 2011, 2:07 pm…Oops “as I SAID (although I am sad talking about the governing idiots of Lebanon)until there is…”.
Posted by danny | June 7, 2011, 2:08 pmDanny,
You are on too:-)
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 7, 2011, 2:08 pmI LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE IT!
Is there a limit?
Posted by Gabriel | June 7, 2011, 2:10 pmJibril #386, I apologize for the late answer, these days have been crazy
No, I have no problem to discuss that point, I was just a bit surprised by the “pre-selection” question that you asked. Anyway, I want to be consistent (because it is the most defendable position I think), and I am against foreign intervention, especially those those motivated by reasons other than helping the oppressed populations.
Posted by 3issa | June 9, 2011, 2:21 pmDon’t worry Issa. Here’s we’re fast fast fast. We jump from one topic to another. Then come back to the same topics again cause we run out of things to say
. Currently, in QN’s latest post, we are discussing wife-beating. HA. Aoun. Homosexuals.
LoL.
I have to ask pre-selection questions, otherwise I wouldn’t know how to argue
. If you’re a Gandhi-esque fellow who carrries olive branches, and opposes all wars, then I’d give you a big hug. take my hat off to you, etc. And really, there would be nothing to argue with, and really, I would have nothing to contribute or ask!
If there are certain conditions in which you think war, and specifically external intervention is justified, then the convo can be more interesting.
Re: Iraq. I happen to be one of those people who supported the war. Please don’t misunderstand. It is not because I didn’t think the Bush-Cheney Oil oligarchy axis didn’t have nefarious reasons perhaps to promote this war. Etc.
However. I think the US has a long dirty laundry list of “errors” in the region. From supporting Saddam against Iran. To arming Iran (contra-affair). To supplying Saddam with agricultural spray planes, and chemical agents (used later against the Kurds). To crushing Iraq in the First Gulf war, only to keep Saddam in place, and slap sanctions that hurt and killed ordinary Iraqis with little/no effect on Saddam himself.
Getting rid of Saddam was one of those things they did right.
I think all those “Jihadis” that streamed into Iraq to oppose the American presence there (with the green light of Syria of course that gave them a passageway), only to blow up Shiite holy places (and I am not one to support holy places… but at the very least beautiful and historical and architectural mosques, etc) should be quite ashamed of themselves.
That’s my 2 cents.
Posted by Gabriel | June 9, 2011, 8:17 pmSo If I understand you well, you are fully aware of the real objective of the US (parallel agenda of neo-cons) but still you are recognizing that removing Saddam was a good thing to do?
Well, we need to apply this standard everywhere else no?
So the US would be able to start another war in, let’s say, Myanmar, where they will probably topple the junta lunatics (while the parallel US agenda would be, maybe, to further their geostr
ategical position vis-a-vis China). If the Iraqi war creates a precedent (still supported by you), why today, there is still crazies ruling North Korea? Vietnam? Myanmar? etc…
Also I found quite curious that those supporting the war in Iraq. always start by: yeah, it was though for Iraqis, war is always though etc, etc,…. and then they always point out that: at the end of the day, the right thing is that a mad dictator has been removed!
I mean, the first part of the speech cannot in any way whatsoever balance the second part of the speech.
And please, don’t tell me that the “jihadi” thing as you call is that much important that it deserve to be mentioned here.
Posted by 3issa | June 10, 2011, 4:22 pmDios mio! #400
Posted by 3issa | June 10, 2011, 4:23 pmIssa,
-> If the Iraqi war creates a precedent (still supported by you)
Well the qualifier “still” really is not accidental. If I were not “still” supportive of it, I would be a hypocrite, no? I can’t let hindsight change my position. It would be dishonest. Pre-American invasion, I thought Iraq would simply see a more conservative Shia emergence. But their democratic rights were more important to me than the potential for them to abuse those rights. (I thought time would correct that). I did not expect incessant suicide bombings etc.
-> And please, don’t tell me that the “jihadi” thing as you call is that much important that it deserve to be mentioned here.
“Jihadi”. “Suicide Bombing”. “Sectarian Clashes”. Call it as you will. I don’t have the statistics. How many people in Iraq have died as a result of suicide bombings and other “sectarian” attacks?
Now for your specific questions:
I don’t think that things are so black and white. I don’t think that “Neo-Con” is so monolithic. I think there were several reasons and motives behind the Iraq war. Some driven from greed. Others, well intentioned. (See below for my arguments). Obviously, you can call me “Neo-Con” for supporting this war, but I am certainly not benefiting from it, and I would like to think that my reasons are not so ill-intentioned. You may of course disagree with this reading of things.
At least, the “stated” position of the US was, for the first time- in a very long time, that they supported the people’s will and not The US’s son-of-a-bitch of the day.
Remember that Saddam was supposedly the vanguard of the US/Saudi against the Iranian menace (they bankrolled his war against Iran!) And yet, after a terrible war that claimed millions of lives, the Americans went in and handed- yes, handed- the country to figures that are closers in mindset to the Iranians. [It was not Chalabi or Alawi that came to power!]
I cannot accept that the rationale was nothing but nefarious. The Americans have yet to reap any economic benefits from their little experiment.
That’s why I asked you the series of questions on your feelings about Milosevic, the current Libyan foray, etc. (You have yet to answer!).
Yes. In my view yes. Ideally, it would not be the US. But the UN. I wish it were a more honest organization and that it it interfere in countries where rights are flagrantly abused. It should have been there to protect the Kurds, or the Shia in Iraq. As it should have been there to protect the Bosnians and Croats.
And as I think it should be there to protect the Syrians.
You say you support regime change in Syria. But you want it to be homegrown.
To date, if you believe the reports, upwards of 1000 people have been killed by the regime. I assume you support a homegrown change still.
What is the magic number, the threshold, that will make you flip and support an external intervention?
10000 dead? 50k? 100k? 1 million?
I am a pacifist at heart. I think weapons should all be banned. I don’t believe in armies, or wars. As i wrote in the beginning, I think the US is responsible to a large extent for the state of the region as it is.
But in 2003, the Iraqis were jaded, and powerless. Beaten to a pulp. I don’t know if you personally know Iraqis (I know many, and I mean many). People my age looked 30 years older than they were. I don’t think back then it was acceptable to continue crippling the country with more sanctions and BS “Oil for Food” programs.
And I do think that the improved political representation in Iraq will pave way for a better Iraq in the future.
Only time will either prove or disprove my position. And I see you are restless with the time it has already taken, but I think it will take longer time still than what has already elapsed.
See above question on Syria. What will the turning point for you be?
Also, out of curiosity… did you support ousting Milosevic?
As per above. I am not a war-monger. Nor do I support wars. Nor obviously do I think that the US should be fixing the world’s problem, (and bankrolling them!). If there are issues with in North Korea, what is the US to do? North Korea was supported for years by China. Still is. Should the US start a war with China for its appalling (and yes, it is appalling) human rights record?
There’s a billion Chinese. Where will it end?
But I don’t think this is an argument for complacency. Or for stating that where a difference can be made, it should not be made.
If a genocide is taking place in Timbuktu and we have the ability to prevent it (even if that means a military intervention), then why not prevent it. I cannot accept the argument that we don’t prevent 50 other attrocities as a reason of not acting on a particular one.
Surely there must be a middle ground!
This is why I wrote what I wrote above. I don’t want to change my view just because things didn’t pan out exactly as I had hoped for them to.
We were where we were in 2003. And the situation was bad. I agree with you. I think it would rather hypocritical to just defacto say the decision was good because a Mad dictator has been removed!
I don’t think that this should be the reason to decide one way or another.
But back in 2003, there were:
(1) Debilitating sanctions against Iraq. Even before the War in Iraq and before 2001, these sanctions were blamed for killing Iraqis from malnutrition, lack of medication, etc).
(2) The situation was doing no favors to Western countries who imposed those sanctions. In fact these sanctions increased resentment of the West, promoted support for groups like Bin Laden’s etc.
(3) Those sanctions made it even less likely that a homegrown movement would be able to topple Saddam.
(4) You had a horrible mad dictator.
Something had to be done then. My view back then was that removing Saddam from the picture was the right course of action.
Posted by Gabriel | June 10, 2011, 5:22 pmOh man, you want to keep me up tonight, I’m tired as hell !!
The “Jihadi” aspect of my comments was related to yours, where I didn’t understood extacly why you brought it in the discussion. But anyway, let’s skip it, ok?
No problem for the “still supported by you”, I’ve just mentioned it to validate that you haven’t change your mind (pre-2003 vs 2011). By the way changing his mind about an issue, is not necessarily hypocrisy, maybe just a eye-opening! (only idiots don’t change their mind, isn’t it?)
Also, do not be that thigh on wording. I used Neo-Con, not à la HK (i.e. as a monolithic bloc), but to sum up the US administrationS objectiveS in that war. I’m aware there is more “granularities” in this, to use military jargon.
But still, from all these multi-faceted reasons for war, do you agree that at the end of the day the benefit to get from this war was:
1. immediate and short termed benefits
- $$$ for US private sector (military industry, oil corps, rebuilding corps)
- better image amongst US public opinion (protecting america from WMD, Al Qaeda threats, and etc,,, you name it…)
2. medium and long term benefits
- consolidation of the US domination in the region (economically and militarly), especially by putting more pressure on regional (Iran) and global potential competitors (China, maybe Russia).
I’m not saying that these objectives has been reached.
So I’m hardly seeing any non ill-intentioned objectives here, and definitely no support of the will of the people. However, the will of the people at that time was to get rid of their local butcher, so what a chance for the US! Notice that a previous example showed us that the US doesn’t care if the people is supporting or not the guy they want to remove (Mossadegh). They will remove it anyway.
“The Americans have yet to reap any economic benefits from their little experiment.”
I’m not sure to understand this take… you mean that the US is not getting economic benefits from this war (either now or tomorrow)? If you believe that, then we don’t have the same informations.
*
Also, you ask me about a threshold that triggers an intervention…well, when you state “where rights are flagrantly abused”, do you have a threshold in mind ??
*
Dude, do not worry about how much Iraqis I interfere with, I trust your word, so trust mine. I know quite a few as well.
*
Concerning the NKorea example, if I’m not misunderstanding, you are basically saying that the US can’t do anything because of China’s backing? So it means only isolated dictatorial countries can be striked by the US?
*
I’m sure I have missed other things in your answer, and sorry for that
But still see below:
1- Milosevic scumbag:
OK for his ousting
2- Lybia crazy rulers:
OK for their toppling
3- KSA in Bahrein:
I condemn this move
for 1-2, we do agree, BUT the ways it (has been/is done) is where we need to agree to disagree.
*
for 3, I might suspect that you were not expecting this answer
*on another note, as of my readings of QN blog, I’ve not found any evidence of our resident iceman “raining” on Bahrainis and clapping at the Saudis for their move there.
nite nite (its 00:04 in Dublin, I haven’t sleep for almost 2 days)
Posted by 3issa | June 10, 2011, 7:05 pmLoaded response. Briefly as it will be a few days before I address ur points….
By the way changing his mind about an issue, is not necessarily hypocrisy, maybe just a eye-opening! (only idiots don’t change their mind, isn’t it?)
Well the issue would have to be broad-based. example: foreign intervention, etc.
The situation in Iraq has happened. There’s really no point saying I don’t support toppling saddam when in fact I did, and he was in fact toppled! Nor would it be honest to say that after supporting his ouster to go back and say (if proven wrong) that I do not support his ouster.
The best I could do is admit being wrong.
But I think judgement on this matter is still premature. We will have to see how the Arab springs unfold and where Iraq ends up to properly assess who was right and who was wrong on this matter.
Posted by Gabriel | June 10, 2011, 7:15 pmLoaded questions. Will have to tackle them one at a time.
I actually don’t agree with this statement.
When I opine I have to put the 2003 hat on and respond accordingly.
Back then I argued that after the US went in, the ensuing regime would not necessarily be very US friendly and will patch things up with Iran.
In fact almost 9 years later, we see that this is in fact what has happened. Iraq is less liberal. It is more Iran leaning. Sistani made the American design bend to his will. Not the other way around
None of this was unexpected to me.
So to say that the medium to long term plan was to put pressure on Iran is something I don’t agree with.
As for China and Russia. I don’t have strong views. It costs money to solve world problems. This war has cost the US trillions (?) Or billions at the very least. I don’t have the figures.
It was a highly risky economic proposal and it hasn’t paid off (yet). I don’t think the Neocon gamble was that naïve. I think still that history will look positively at this point if democracy takes proper root.
Posted by Gabriel | June 10, 2011, 7:51 pmImpressive. You actually went back in time and read, LoL.
Not here to taint Iceman’s good name. You ought to judge for yourself. But in fact he did make those statements. Perhaps the verb “clapping” was a slight dramatisation of his views
. LoL
Anyways, whatever else one may think of Iceman, one thing he is, is brutally and unabashedly honest. (Wrong maybe, but honest in expressing how he sees things).
So I’ll tell you what, why don’t u ask him, point blank those questions, and see what he tells you
.
If he denies it, I’ll spend the time digging up the specific posts and you can be the judge.
Posted by Gabriel | June 10, 2011, 8:34 pmThe Ain El Remmaneh bus, the spark of the devastating Lebanese civil war, has been found. It was used as an exhibit in Beirut:
http://mashallahnews.com/?p=3474
I am of the opinion that this relic must be restored to the shape that it was in on April 13, 1973 and should anchor a permanent exhibit about the civil war in Lebanon.
I further think that the financing should be accomplished through a wide reaching campaign and not through either the government or a few wealthy individuals. What do you think? Should we pursue this project?
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 11, 2011, 8:18 amIssa,, surely we can judge the merits of something contemporary without having to go back in history (Mossadegh)!
If it were up to the Americans, surely, you must believe that they would have had different choices for elected leaders than those who actually came to power!
Would you not, at the very least, agree with this statement?!?
I’m not an economist or a numbers person. I just read snippets from the news. And to date, all i”ve read is how much money the US is losing on a daily basis in Iraq. If this information is not true, then point me to the right information, and I’ll reconsider my position.
As for the now or tomorrow part. Obviously the US is hoping to reap some rewards, cement new relationships etc. Otherwise the US would be the most altruistic “Empire” to have existed in history. But that is not a certainty, it is/was a gamble. We have (I believe) not seen it “pay” off yet.
That’s a question I asked you about Syria. There are people dying there now. So far 1000+.
At what point do you think the “international community” should step in. Surely you must have a threshold. Otherwise, your opposition to the regime in Syria will ring very hollow indeed!
There is no magic number I am expecting you to respond with. Just curious about your views.
And from the ones you know (hopefully recent ones that came out of Iraq). Didn’t you find them jaded and worn out? Looking many years more than their age?
Isn’t that a plain and obvious truth? Isn’t that why countries covet nuclear weapons. The “deterrent” option if you will?
For 1-2 we don’t necessarily disagree. I support removing those figures. Strategy is another matter altogether.
For 3. I don’t pre-form ideas. So really, I had no expectations of an answer
.
Posted by Gabriel | June 11, 2011, 8:38 amGab,
I’ve clearly stated that the war objectives that I mentionned was OBJECTIVES NOT NECESSARILY REACHED.
So, regarding the benefit that the US is having from the war, in my first comment I said that it is the private sector who is benefiting from it, and of course not the Us economy in general (some say 3 trillion $ total cost !!)
I’m not a bean counter either, but just have a look at how the US military is doing: nice graph
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/07/31/business/20090801_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html
also this
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2837477.stm
…and I’m sparing you the gigantic profits of oil companies, private defense contractors, infrastructure rebuilding companies etc…all of them directly benefited from the war on Iraq.
Do you agree with the statement saying that the US administration engaged in Iraq has very specific ties with the private sector interested in the war?
*
Concerning the “threshold”, again I’m sending you the question back. I have no figure in mind..and you?
*
Well, I know a couple of Iraqis who left the country back in 1995 I guess, because they simply cannot support living under the rule of Saddam. However, the Iraqis I know who fled after the war has been started against their country in 2003 was indeed just cheerless and afflicted after what they had to go trough. The US invasion has been lot more catastrophic to them (imho)
*
Regarding your answer about the US prevented from attacking countries with a powerful backing, so basically it means that the way the US sold the war i.e. “toppling the dictator” and “promoting/establishing democracy” is not really a general standard that the US has? Rather, I would rephrase these standards that way: “toppling the isolated dictators” and “promoting democracy in isolated countries”,,,would you agree with that idiomatique?
*
Don’t you feel that we are going round in circles here?
Posted by 3issa | June 12, 2011, 5:48 pmIssa
.
(1) I understand that oil/reconstruction companies, the military etc may have made money out of this. But I think the issue of economic benefit should be a little grander in scale. I am sure the US eyes competition from its global competitors and how to position itself more importantly than lining the pockets of Fulan and Fulan with millions of $. I agree with you, the specific administration that promoted the war and went into the war did have specific “conflicts of interest”. But I don’t think that the US- the foremost superpower- is a banana republic that is so fickle that it will take a nation to war that costs it trillions only to satisfy a few companies here and there. Maybe I am stupid and naive to believe this.
(2) I don’t have a number/threshold for intervention. But philosophically, I am not the one who shied from the position that I can be for foreign intervention. You did. So that’s why I ask you the question.
It’s tough to come up with an answer. But are you saying that you are willing to concede that some threshold exists where your position can be changed? Or do you simply believe that no such threshold exists and a people should always be left to their own devices to affect change?
(3) The Iraqis were jaded from the war with Iran. From the First Gulf war, from Sanctions, and from the current war.
(4) In life, we all go round in circles
. Issa, it’s the journey that matters, not the destination. So we’re getting to understand each other’s positions/thinking processes. There’s value in that, no?
Posted by Gabriel | June 13, 2011, 10:03 amGabriel,
I’m giving you the same answers because you are asking the same question (or repeating the same ideas) – & VICE VERSA
so
1. I don’t say that the US is a banana republic, I just say that removing saddam, or maybe correcting the mistakes of the past, or maybe promoting democracy has NOTHING TO DO with the motives that led the US to war. I tried to state the other true objectives (100% cynical) i.e. greed of the private sector & desperate moves to consolidate the “”"Empire”"” (3 brackets aren’t enough I guess)
2. So you told me that, ideally, you would like the UN to deal with foreign intervention matters, not necessarily the US. So you are advocating the foreign intervention is necessary. And again, I told you that I don’t have any morbid threshold in mind, that’s why I asked you back. Also, you wanted to position me regarding Lybia, Bosnia etc. I stated that I was in favor of ousting the ruling scumbags, but I specifically mentionned that we will disagree on the way to do it. Again, I repeat that I prefer a revolution of the oppressed people against their rulers if they deserve it.
3. Really, the war with Iran was devastating to the Iraqis, but if you really hear what these guys has to say (at least from my own experience), it is the West interventions that were the most destructive to them. And indeed, the Gulf war I was hard, but nothing compared to the criminal embargo, and definitely, the Iraqis didn’t need Gulf war II to finish them.
4. Believe me I’m doing my best to see the value of all this – no offense ya Jibril
)
______
Also, on a different note, but related tough, do you agree that the campaign for the promotion of the war was full of lies (you know all the manipulation, false evidences/testimony) ?
If yes, since I understand that you are “still” supporting the war, how can you combine these 2 elements (i.e. a big lie a the beginning, and according to you a “general” positive result of the war). ?
(if that question doesn’t sounds English to you please let me know and sorry for that)
Posted by 3issa | June 13, 2011, 6:37 pmoh by the way, you didn’t tell if you agree with my rephrasing?
[quote] Rather, I would rephrase these standards that way: “toppling the isolated dictators” and “promoting democracy in isolated countries”,,,would you agree with that idiomatique?[/quote]
Posted by 3issa | June 13, 2011, 6:53 pmhow can I get this bloody quote marks once for all ???
Posted by 3issa | June 13, 2011, 6:54 pmIssa, Resp Part 1:
- I enjoy the banter. Take this not as an statement of offense, but as a complement
.
(1) This is where I disagree with you… I think promoting Democracy and serving the interest of “Empire” are in fact correlated. The American scheme of supporting a SonOfABitch of the day has failed miserably. And I do think they have to support democracy and support it sincerely. Taking that position will create meaningful relations between East and West. I don’t think you are opposed to this principle. But you are focussing more on the cynical reasons. My point is that those cynical reasons might have lined Fulan’s pockets or Fulana’s pockets but are not long term strategic goals. Whether willingly or not, America has ended up supporting the democracy project in Iraq.
(2) Yes, I understood what you wrote. But in my view, you might as well not call X, Y or Z a scumbag. That means, all you are willing to do is to sit in a far-away land and say… Yes, X may be a scumbag, but really his people should deal with him. And X may kill 1000, or a million, or be like Stalin and kill 10s of millions, and oh well. I think that humanity should have a moral responsibility to protect humanity.
(Different Note) Issa, I think that there is a difference between us bantering and discussing issues, and what I consider the marketing campaign of selling a war. The type of analysis we provide is at a slightly different level than President Wotshisname standing on a podium trying to convince Mrs WotsHerName to put her son in harm’s way.
To answer specifically your question. No. I don’t agree the campaign was based on lies. I think it was a marketing campaign. And like all marketing campaigns it had elements of truth to it.
Saddam had an excellent scientific program, and was quite capable of making “chemical” agents. If that were not enough, the US supplied Saddam with chemical agents themselves. They should know! They gave him the damn things themselves!
I am not one of those people who said… “See, the Americans went in and where were those weapons? It was all a lie!”.
Who knows, maybe he destroyed them. Maybe he passed them off to Iran/Syria. Or maybe yes, he didn’t have them at that point of time.
Really, does Saddam having WMD warrant a war against him?!? In my view NO. Otherwise. Why not declare war on Russia and the US and China. For all their stockpiles of Nuclear weapons!
I also don’t make a distinction between “WMD” and Not-”WMD”. Dying is dying. And killing is killing.
So I don’t put a focus as you do on the nature of the reasons this or that administration went to war. I see them purely as a marketing campaign, and treat them as such.
For the quotes, I think the HTML code is blockquote. That’s what I use.
Posted by Gabriel | June 14, 2011, 11:24 am