Conspiracy Chronicles


Conspiracy Chronicles series, no. 7

Iran is sending a convoy of aid ships to Gaza, according to Iranian state radio. Reuters is reporting that one ship left on Sunday and another “loaded with food, construction material and toys” will leave by this Friday.

We haven’t had an episode in our conspiracy chronicles series in a while, so I’m pleased to bring you the following nugget from a Beirut-based source who describes himself as “a western expert brainwashed by bad operas dedicated to Imad Mughniyeh and bought by iranian petro-lucre…”

According to my source (who got his information from “a bearded taciturn birdie”) these Iranian ships are under the protection of the muqawama. “Any trouble, and whoosh whooosh boom…”

You should know that this isn’t the first time that Iran has sent aid ships, and on previous occasions the ships have been turned around by the Israeli Navy without any incident. I don’t imagine that Hizbullah would actually take any serious action in the event of a repeat of the Freedom Flotilla disaster, but don’t say you weren’t warned…

Like This!

wordpress stats

Conspiracy Chronicles series, no. 6

Is the search-and-rescue ship Ocean Alert hunting for the victims of the tragic Ethiopian Airlines crash, or is it prospecting for gold?

So asks this article in al-Akhbar, no doubt prompted by the atmosphere of suspicion that has enveloped the post-crash drama. My sources tell me that everyone has a pet conspiracy theory. Here are some of the more outlandish ones:

(a) The plane was carrying 50 of the richest Lebanese Shiite businessmen and was blown up by some kind of salafist terror group.

(b) The plane was brought down by the Mossad in order to take out a wealthy Hezbollah financier.

(c) The plane was carrying some huge amount of gold, which is now being stolen by professional foreign prospectors on the ocean floor.

We apparently still don’t know the cause of the crash, but hopefully this bout of ridiculous conspiracy theorizing will come to an end soon. For those of you who would like to keep theorizing and are technically-inclined, check out the movement of the ship Ocean Alert during the past few weeks (thanks Toufoul).

Update: For even more conspiracy theories surrounding the crash, see this article in French Slate (thanks Tajaddod Youth).

Update 2: Michael Young joins in.

Bookmark and Share

wordpress stats

Conspiracy Chronicles series, no. 5

There are plenty of worthy analyses out there of the German soap opera known as Der Spiegelgate. This is all I have to contribute.

colonelmuqawama
wordpress stats

Conspiracy Chronicles series, no. 5coins

We are frequently told that these elections are the most expensive, per capita, in the history of the universe. Recently, I asked an opposition MP running for re-election how much he was spending on billboards and TV appearances.

“Well, I just can’t afford to spend the kind of money that others are spending,” he said wistfully. “I’ve got one big picture of myself on the side of a building, and that cost me a lot. The unipoles [large billboards on the side of the highway] are especially expensive, anywhere between $6000-9000 each, for the campaign season.”

Where’s all of this money coming from? In the case of March 14th, there’s an assumption among Lebanese that Saudi Arabia is footing the bill. What about for the FPM?

“Well, candidates are expected to finance their own campaigns, but also to make a contribution to the overall bloc. Of course, not everyone can pay the same amount,” the MP continued.

So how does the FPM pick up the slack? For enlightenment on these matters, I turned to my friend Hussein, who keeps a close eye on opposition relations.

“So what do you think, Hussein? Who’s funding the FPM campaign? Wealthy candidates? Rich Lebanese abroad? Qatar? Dubai? Iran?”

Hussein flashed one of his signature smirks. “Who’s funding it? Please… Obviously the Hizb is funding it.”

“Hizbullah is paying for the FPM campaign?”

“Of course. Do you think the FPM has that kind of money?”

“Ok… but how is that different from saying that Iran is funding it?”

Hussein gave me a weary look. “Iran does not fund Hizbullah. Whoever told you such a silly thing?”

“Umm… It doesn’t?”

“No. Iran, as a state, does not give us any money at all.”

“So where does your money come from?”

“The khums, of course.” (Hussein is referring to the one-fifth share of the spoils of war and other income, a kind of tithe whose payment is deemed a religious duty within both Sunni and Shiite doctrine).

“Ahh yes, the khums, how could I forget?”

“We don’t get our money from Iran, but rather from the worldwide Shiite community.”

“Ok, but it still is more or else channeled through Iran, right?”

“Not through the state. It’s channeled through the office of the highest religious authority (marja`).”

“Which one?”

“Ayatollah Khamenei of course.”

“Ok, so let me get this straight. You are saying that the FPM campaign is not being funded by Iran.”

“Of course not. That would be preposterous.”

“Fair enough. So it’s actually being funded by the tithes collected from the worldwide Shiite umma via the intermediaries of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei and Hizbullah?”

“Naturally.”

“Alrighty then.”

“What, you don’t believe me?”

“Seems like kind of a stretch.”

Hussein smiled, patted me on the shoulder, and walked away.
wordpress stats

what me worry?A few days ago, a reader left the following prescient remark in the comment section of this blog:

“I’m wondering: does anybody read anything into Amal’s relative absence from the 4 Officers celebration scene? Almost as if wily Berri is trying to meet Jumblatt in the middle…”

Come, come… sounds like conspiracy-mongering to me. I mean, what could Nabih Berri possibly have to fear from another shrewd, well-spoken, charismatic, super-connected Shiite who has the support of Hizbullah and Damascus and who has dirt on every single civil servant and high-profile figure in Lebanon?

My friends, when we are not in the business of sniffing out conspiracy theories on this blog, then we are in the business of starting them. Consider the following tidbits:

New TV quipped last night that perhaps Speaker Berri is waiting for the pigeon post to arrive from the Tribunal, bringing him news of the generals’ release. The Angry Arab has a good post on the political background of the case, in which he suggests:

Jamil As-Sayyid was one of the most powerful men in the country for a while: and that pitted him again Nibih Birri who suspected (with justification) that the Syrian regime was grooming him to succeed him as speaker for parliament.  The plan was for Sayyid to run in 2005.

It is well-known that the men do not like each other. Back in 2005, al-Sayyid gave an interview to al-Hayat which, despite being 40,000 words long, still somehow managed to say almost nothing. (Leave it to a Lebanese intelligence officer to make a New England nor’easter feel like a touch of early morning frost.)  For example, in response to a question about whether Berri had tried to have al-Sayyid removed from his post, the major general had this to say:

All the reasons are similar, in addition to the fact that political leaders in Lebanon are used to having state employees “belong” to them. I don’t have this mentality. It’s not normal and it produces hostility. Each leader wants to make you “his man,” protecting you and benefiting from your services for the sake of his leadership. In Lebanon, you obtain immunity of you belong to a political leader, especially if you’re a state employee.

No, I didn’t quite understand his point either. What he seems to be saying is that Berri tried to co-opt him, and was unsuccessful because the general had his own sources of support in Damascus. And, at the end of the day, this is what makes him more than a casual concern for Berri today. While he  doesn’t need to worry about not becoming Speaker again (I can’t imagine Aoun, no matter how much he loathes Berri, throwing his support to Syria’s former no. 1 in Lebanon), Jamil al-Sayyid’s return is clearly a source of anxiety, to judge by his media silence.

Still, I would have expected Berri to compose one of his signature verses of zajal for the prodigal son, or at least send him a plate of baklawa, which is the traditional Lebanese thing to do when someone you know who was wrongly incarcerated for murdering the Prime Minister is set free. Wa lak 3ayb!
wordpress stats

So I was having dinner the other night at the home of J, a lovable Beiruti architect whose incredible tabbouleh depends on the secret ingredients of pomegranate molasses and sumac in its dressing.

Oops. Sorry J.

Anyway, the topic of conversation was Beirut’s recent annointment as one of forty-four  must-visit destinations for 2009, by The New York Times. And where did Beirut fall on that list of uber-trendy locales? That’s right. Number one, baby.  We remain hip, interesting, and newsworthy, may God be praised.

Amidst much self-congratulatory clinking of araq glasses, J sat back and said happily: “Well, I suppose this means that we will get at least one summer of stability.”

Beat.

“What do you mean, J?”

“I mean, if The New York Times said it’s ok to visit Lebanon, then this means that the U.S. is not planning any more adventures, right?”

“Come again?”

J continued, unaware of my befuddlement: “But the thing that bothers me about this is that they are sending mixed messages. I mean, why issue a travel advisory to Lebanon, and then say that you should Lebanon, at the same time?”

“Umm, J? The New York Times did not issue the travel advisory. The U.S. government did.”

“I know.”

“So… one thing is not connected with the other. The U.S. government does not coordinate its policies with the media. They are two separate things altogether.”

J looked at me as if I had suddenly started speaking in Swedish.

“But surely they talk to each other.”

“J, the job of newspapers is to interrogate and investigate the actions of government, not to justify and enable them.”

Actually, I didn’t say that. I started to, but then stopped. I’m still not sure why.
wordpress stats

“What is with all of these wild fires?” I asked Abbas as we drove back to Beirut from Saida.

“This is a mafia at work,” he said confidently.

“Really?”

“Yes, isn’t it obvious?”

“Ummm…”

“The fires are always in the Chouf. Always roughly in the same area.”

“Not really.”

“More or less. They are mostly in the Chouf. Somebody is starting these fires and then profiting from it somehow.”

“Huh.”

“Trust me.”

“So, who owns this land?”

“Some of it is owned privately; some by Jumblatt; and some by Hizbullah.”

“Why is Hizbullah buying land in the Chouf?”

“It’s not just the Chouf, it’s also in the western Bekaa and the South. We’re buying land to frustrate the Zionist project to re-settle Druze in the Shi`a areas.”

“Come again?”

Abbas looked at me like I was completely ignorant.

“The whole point of the July War, besides to try to eliminate the Resistance, was to remove all the Shi`a from South Lebanon and replace them with Druze, with the goal of creating a Druze state carved out of Lebanon and Syria.”

“Oh.”

“The Druze are very clever. Jumblatt is a political mastermind. But we are clever too.” Abbas grinned at me.

“So, the Hizb is buying land…”

“…To prevent Jumblatt from creating a Druze mini-state in South Lebanon. We know what he’s trying to do. Don’t worry. We know.”
wordpress stats

This theory comes courtesy of Abbas, who works as an office boy at a consulting firm in Ras Beirut, and uses the first person plural pronoun (“we”) when speaking about the Hizb.

**

Abbas: The Damascus bombing was a message to Syria from the Salafists operating in north Lebanon. The message stated, loud and clear:  “Keep out of Lebanon or be prepared to pay the price.” Furthermore, Monday’s bomb attack on an army truck in Tripoli was a similar message, sent to Beirut: stay out of north Lebanon, etc.

Abbas continued: The near future will bring a Syrian military return to Lebanon. Not all of it: just the north, which has become the haven for a growing Salafist militant community. The goal will be to end the Salafist problem. Syria will do this with full diplomatic cover from Europe (especially France) and the Americans will stay quiet about it because it will be part of the “war on terror”. Most importantly, it will have the sanction of a Lebanese government that desperately needs to gain the upper hand over a festering problem.

“Why the Syrians?” I asked, perhaps a bit naively. “Why not just have the Lebanese army go in and deal with these people.”

Abbas smiled and said conspiratorially: “The Syrians are the only ones who can do it. They have … an expertise, shall we say, in such operations. They can end the entire issue.”

I stared back blankly, not exactly sure of what he was saying — and not really wanting to know.

“What do you mean ‘end the entire issue’?” I asked tentatively.

“What do you think?” he smiled back.

“You mean… like Hama?”

“Lakaan?”

*gulp*

“But Abbas, are you suggesting the Syrian army is going to buldoze all of Tripoli?”

“No, but certain neighborhoods, why not? The Syrians know how to do this. In fact, they are the only ones who can do it. No one in Lebanon will assume this responsibility because it’s a sectarian powder keg. The Syrians will do it, and they’ll do it very relaxed (murtaaheen). They will be happy to do it. First of all, it’s in their interests, second of all it will win them points in Lebanon, Europe, and the U.S.”

“So if it is so much in their interests, then how do we know that they are not the ones funding these guys in the first place, i.e. in order to make a fire and then be paid to put it out?”

“Who told you they’re not funding them? Anything is possible.”
wordpress stats

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 117 other followers