aounistsMitch Prothero has an interesting piece about the FPM-Hizbullah relationship in The National, in which he recounts a scene at a campaign rally where the Hizbullah partisans bussed in from al-Dahiya to provide a little multi-confessional je ne sais quoi got a little too Shiite for the taste of the Aounist crowd control officials. Here’s the relevant bit:

An hour before Michel Aoun, a former general and one of Lebanon’s most popular Christian leaders, was due to speak on Saturday night, his political advance team realised it had a crowd control problem.

Mr Aoun’s mostly upper-class party, the Free Patriotic Movement, bused in dozens of Shiite youths from Lebanon’s impoverished southern suburbs including Dahiya, but now found the cultural differences hard to handle. The teenagers began a chant that threatened to upset Mr Aoun’s traditional base…

Dozens of teenage boys waved Hizbollah flags and chanted “Allah, Nasrallah, and all of Dahiya” about an hour before Mr Aoun was due to take the stage. An organiser from the FPM immediately saw the sectarian nature of the chanting and politically problematic images that might upset Christian swing voters in the election’s most critical district.

But getting rid of the youths posed no easy problem. As they were hustled off the floor, an Aoun official confronted the teenagers in the car park as they continued chanting Hizbollah-themed slogans.

“You are acting in a terrible way. You must stop these slogans; you can’t chant about being Shiite here,” the frustrated official, who would not give his name, said to the group of teenagers.

When he stopped yelling at them, the crowd once again began chanting: “We are all Shiite, We are the Shiite.”

Now visibly annoyed, the official tried to force them further from the venue before the media noticed them.

“Just leave, go back to Dahiya; we don’t want you here,” the man shouted.

“Nasrallah, Nasrallah! No fear, No fear. All of Dahiya will turn into a Kalashnikov!” responded the group, pushing the rhetoric into even more dangerous territory.

“Back on the buses,” Aoun officials shouted. “We don’t need you here. They need you back in Dahiya!”

Ouch… I personally feel that there isn’t quite enough of this kind of unsentimental, on-the-ground journalism in the election coverage. Even if one is sympathetic to March 8 or 14, surely the warts are worth pointing out, no? Got to hand it to Mitch (despite the fact that he has managed to scoop me as I put the finishing touches on a long piece about the Aounists for this Friday’s Review section in The National. Stay tuned!)

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may7Two nights ago, Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah gave a speech in which he, for reasons I can’t quite comprehend, re-opened the file on the events of May 7th 2008. It seems that the Future Movement’s latest round of campaign billboards — which feature slogans like “We won’t forget,” “They won’t return,” and “We won’t leave  you,” which reference the May 7 takeover of West Beirut — managed to touch a nerve with Nasrallah, and he felt the need to respond.

Nasrallah’s reading of the events is one that most opposition partisans will typically present: March 14th was doing the bidding of the United States, Israel, and the Arab puppet regimes by attempting to disable a crucial component of Hizbullah’s military apparatus; as soon as they crossed this “red line”, they were given two days to reverse their decision, which they ignored; Hizbullah then struck with surgical precision, shutting down the city and neutralizing all the pro-government militias that had been preparing for a battle envisioned to last weeks and which would eventually lead to the intervention of foreign armies to “keep the peace”; when this plan was foiled (with minimal casualties), the country was forced back to the dialogue table and a peaceful solution was  reached in Doha.

Therefore, concluded Nasrallah, “May 7th was a glorious day” for the Resistance. Predictably, there are many who disagree, and interestingly, they are not all on March 14th’s side. Former PM Salim al-Hoss, a strong supporter of Hizbullah, criticized Nasrallah’s remarks yesterday, and the Free Patriotic Movement has not moved in any overt way to back up their ally. My own experience speaking to various pro-opposition types here in Beirut confirms the uneasiness with which Nasrallah’s words were received. The feeling is that he overstepped.

Not that it really matters, this close to the election. It seems that the desire to win is so strong on both sides that it overrides any petty intra-coalition grievances. At some point, however, one wonders whether the FPM and Hizbullah are going to lock horns on resistance issues.

I had a conversation recently with a relative of mine, “Samir”, who is a strong supporter of both the FPM and the Hizb. I think his feelings are representative of how many opposition voters (particularly within the FPM) think about the future of the resistance and Lebanon’s role within the Arab-Israeli struggle. I reproduce as much of it as I can remember, below:

"We won't forget, as long as the sky is blue." (h/t beirutntsc.blogspot.com)

"We won't forget, as long as the sky is blue." (h/t beirutntsc.blogspot.com)

Samir: What the March 14th Christians do not understand is that the FPM is able to have a more productive dialogue with Hizbullah based on respect. It is easier to have an effect on someone when they respect you.

QN: What kind of effect?

Samir: I mean, let’s take a superficial example. I, as a Christian, have no problem going on al-Manar and being interviewed by a Muslim woman wearing a headscarf. I respect her customs. But why is it a problem for a Hizbullah leader like Naim Qassem to be interviewed by a Christian woman if she is not wearing a headscarf? Shouldn’t he respect her customs? Do you see what I mean? This is not an important issue, but the basic point is that a Lebanese Forces MP can’t have a sensitive dialogue with Hizbullah because there is no trust between the two sides. But the FPM can, because we are allies.

QN: Is there anything that the FPM can’t talk about with Hizbullah?

Samir: Like what?

QN: Like the Resistance. Take, for example, the business about Hizbullah cells operating in Egypt.

Samir: I’m totally against that. It was a major mistake for them to get involved in Egypt. Not that I’m defending Mubarak — I can’t stand him — but he was right when he said that Hizbullah has no business operating secretly in Egypt.

QN: Do you think Nasrallah made a mistake by admitting it?

Lebanese Forces mock FPM "selling out" its principles (h/t Ouwet Front)

Lebanese Forces mock FPM "selling out" its principles (h/t Ouwet Front)

Samir: They shouldn’t have been involved at all, in my opinion. I don’t understand why Lebanon — which is the smallest country in its region — has to pay the largest price in the struggle with Israel. We have paid enough already. For now, I want to go back to the hudna and in the long run I want a peace deal. I want to support the Palestinians in the camps here, to improve their living conditions and give them their rights, and to send money to Palestine. That’s what I can do. But to go and fight and bring another disaster down upon our heads… no, I’m against it.

QN: So the Resistance is, in your opinion…

Samir: … a national defense. That’s what Hizbullah is saying and I trust them. If they start to reveal something else, then I’m against it.

As we saw recently in the flap about Jezzine, it does not take much for the old battle lines to become visible. I don’t know how many people feel the same way as my cousin Samir, but I’m sure he is not part of a tiny minority in the FPM. M14′s Christian leadership, however, has proven to be so hamfisted in its attempts to exploit this ambivalence that it will probably end up costing them the election.
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Conspiracy Chronicles series, no. 5coins

We are frequently told that these elections are the most expensive, per capita, in the history of the universe. Recently, I asked an opposition MP running for re-election how much he was spending on billboards and TV appearances.

“Well, I just can’t afford to spend the kind of money that others are spending,” he said wistfully. “I’ve got one big picture of myself on the side of a building, and that cost me a lot. The unipoles [large billboards on the side of the highway] are especially expensive, anywhere between $6000-9000 each, for the campaign season.”

Where’s all of this money coming from? In the case of March 14th, there’s an assumption among Lebanese that Saudi Arabia is footing the bill. What about for the FPM?

“Well, candidates are expected to finance their own campaigns, but also to make a contribution to the overall bloc. Of course, not everyone can pay the same amount,” the MP continued.

So how does the FPM pick up the slack? For enlightenment on these matters, I turned to my friend Hussein, who keeps a close eye on opposition relations.

“So what do you think, Hussein? Who’s funding the FPM campaign? Wealthy candidates? Rich Lebanese abroad? Qatar? Dubai? Iran?”

Hussein flashed one of his signature smirks. “Who’s funding it? Please… Obviously the Hizb is funding it.”

“Hizbullah is paying for the FPM campaign?”

“Of course. Do you think the FPM has that kind of money?”

“Ok… but how is that different from saying that Iran is funding it?”

Hussein gave me a weary look. “Iran does not fund Hizbullah. Whoever told you such a silly thing?”

“Umm… It doesn’t?”

“No. Iran, as a state, does not give us any money at all.”

“So where does your money come from?”

“The khums, of course.” (Hussein is referring to the one-fifth share of the spoils of war and other income, a kind of tithe whose payment is deemed a religious duty within both Sunni and Shiite doctrine).

“Ahh yes, the khums, how could I forget?”

“We don’t get our money from Iran, but rather from the worldwide Shiite community.”

“Ok, but it still is more or else channeled through Iran, right?”

“Not through the state. It’s channeled through the office of the highest religious authority (marja`).”

“Which one?”

“Ayatollah Khamenei of course.”

“Ok, so let me get this straight. You are saying that the FPM campaign is not being funded by Iran.”

“Of course not. That would be preposterous.”

“Fair enough. So it’s actually being funded by the tithes collected from the worldwide Shiite umma via the intermediaries of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei and Hizbullah?”

“Naturally.”

“Alrighty then.”

“What, you don’t believe me?”

“Seems like kind of a stretch.”

Hussein smiled, patted me on the shoulder, and walked away.
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aoun-and-berri

I’ve got to hand it to General Aoun. He’s made one district in southern Lebanon worth watching…

By now, most will have heard about the unusual arrangement arrived at by Amal and the Free Patriotic Movement over the Christian district of Jezzine. After weeks (and weeks and weeks) of negotiations, Aoun announced that he couldn’t reach an agreement with his ally Nabih Berri over a joint list of three candidates, and so the two parties have decided to field separate lists in a spirit of “healthy competition”.

Why does this matter? After all, no matter which side wins, it’s going to be a gain for the opposition, right? Not necessarily. The creation of two opposition lists may split the vote in such a way that some other independent or March 14-friendly candidate can snatch a seat. This scenario, while unlikely, is still worth watching out for  (as I’m sure M14 strategists are doing).

The most  interesting thing about the Jezzine affair, to my mind, is what it reveals about: (a) the Free Patriotic Movement’s electoral strategy; (b) Michel Aoun’s confidence in his own popularity among Lebanon’s Christians; and (c) the barely hidden contempt that some FPM partisans feel toward their allies.

Strategically speaking, Aoun is pursuing a tack similar to what we see among many of the March 14 parties: intense competition even among coalition allies so as to maximize the size of one’s own parliamentary share. Had Aoun and Berri come to an agreement on Jezzine, the FPM would likely have gotten two of the district’s three seats, giving up one to Berri. Aoun’s decision to contest all three suggests that he is willing to gamble on the possibility of not winning any at all, which means that he must like his chances.

In 2005, Jezzine was part of the South II governorate which included the districts of Marjeyoun-Hasbaya and Nabatieh, so the Christian MPs of Jezzine were voted in by the governorate’s majority Shiite population. The Doha Accord replaced the larger governorate with the smaller qada’ and so Jezzine’s residents will be able to elect directly their own representatives this time around. Aoun has ruffled feathers in the past by referring to the new law as an opportunity to free Jezzine from “its occupation” [under Berri], and it looks like he is relishing the opportunity to show that his popularity with Lebanese Christians is not confined to the Maronite heartland of Mount Lebanon.

Turning to the final point, I find the Aounists’ reaction to Berri’s intransigence to be fascinating. The online forums are positively boiling over with animosity toward Amal in particular and the opposition in general. Here are a couple of striking examples:

The thing is, from Aakar to West Bekaa, FPM almost on it’s own is facing “7oukoumet Filtman” [the "Feltman government"], while almost all our allies are doing deals (from to Beirut 2 to West Beqaa to Aley) and giving “7oukoumet Filtman” seats right and left in order to “avoid sectarian conflicts” (i wonder what May 7 2008 is called).

Michel el Murr goes on air and curses the hell out of GMA [General Michel Aoun] and FPM and in the same interview he says “I coordinate everything i do with Berri”, while Berri doesnt reply to him, not even one of his MPs reply to Murr

Khalasna ba2a, we have done more than enough for the opposition w walla marra raba7na jmile, sarlon few months kell ma 7ada fata7 temmo mnesma3 “HA/Amal agreed on the 1960 law for GMA”, ma 7ada yirabe7na jmile, the 1960 law is nothing in front of the things GMA and FPM did since 2006 w walla marra raba7na jmile la 7adan

There is no such thing called opposition anymore, the so called centrists (Berri, Murr, Miqati, Michel Suliemen, Jumblat and the rest) are trying to reduce C&R’s numbers in the parliament. Prove me wrong

For those not fluent in Lebanese SMS dialect, the gist of this intervention is that the FPM has bent over backwards for its allies and has never once asked anything in return. Given that Aoun is shouldering the burden of coming up with all the seats to give the opposition a majority, this fellow is justifiably annoyed with the way that his party is getting nickled and dimed. Here’s another one:

listen,

1-if i can abuse my own batrak, clergy , church because they are against us
2-if i can stand to the whole western world , which we relate to in many many many ways
3-if i can defend visiting the syria and forgiving the nizam
4-if i can defend such filth as jamil al sayed becasue he was wrongly jailed
5-if i was ready to work against SLEIMAN FRANGIE IF WE HAD DISGAREED.

berri wa bay bay berri wa all his supporters means zilch to me.

PUT ON TOP OF THAT THE ALL MOU3ARADA…byeswou negle 3endde.
no one need his votes or anything from him,let him and ha vote against us
i do not gives a **** man, NEITHER DOES THE MAJORITY OF FPMers, go and ask them if you want, yalla go and ask.

IN 05 WE WERE ALL ALONE AND LET IT BE AGAIN…BLOODY MURDER.
you think we care
you think i care about this or that voting for us.

let us lose all zahle, baabda,anywhere ANYONE BE RABE7NA JMEILE.

when GENERAL said
walla zaman al tanazoul….he meant it.

LET ME SEE WHO REALLY NEEDS WHO IN LEBANON.
I WISH GENERAL WILL SIGN THAT MOUZAKARAT TAFAHOUM WITH THE TRIBUNAL , TOMORROW.
WLEK I JUST WISH THAT
LET ME SHOW berri his size and worth.
AKHH YA GENERAL, FOR ONCE BEHAVE LIKE THEM.PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Can I get an amen?! My faith has been restored. This is what I love about the FPM: they’re plucky, and principled as hell. This guy is basically saying that he has turned a blind eye to every unsavory aspect of being associated with the opposition (facing down the West, angering the Maronite patriarch, forgiving Syria, defending the four generals, etc.) while the opposition has given the FPM little in return. He issues a rhetorical plea to his leader to sign the Memorandum of Understanding on the Tribunal just to stick it to March 8.  I haven’t seen anything so uplifting since Jumblatt dissed Geagea and Saad on YouTube. You go, angry FPM dude!

In case you’re wondering, this intra-opposition criticism rarely extends to Hizbullah. The FPM/HA relationship is very solid, on the level of both the leadership and the cadres. But one wonders what is likely to happen to March 8 should they win the election. Particularly if the FPM wins Jezzine (leaving Berri with as few as 11 seats) and Aoun presses on with his reform program, I don’t think it is that hard to imagine a scenario like the one the first commenter was describing: the quiet emergence of a ‘centrist’ block that works to keep the old corrupt “tarkibeh” intact.

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sois-belle3aIs Walid Jumblatt brilliant, senile, or both?

While seated amongst a klatsch of shriveled Druze elders, the PSP leader launched into a diatribe against his Christian and Sunni allies, which was captured on a camera phone and posted on YouTube. (Who knew that shriveled Druze elders were YouTube savvy?)

I don’t know about you, but I find these kind of ‘keyhole’ moments exhilarating, as they give the humble citizen a peek behind the curtain to see the Wizard at work. Here are some impressions:

Revelation #1: The zu’ama are exactly as petty and backbiting as we thought; we’re not just imagining it!

Revelation #2: They really can’t stand each other; we’re not just imagining it!

Revelation #3: (And this one never gets old…) There is no plan! We’re not just imagining it!

Friday-Lunch-Club has an English translation of the juicier bits of the video, in which Jumblatt referred to Samir Geagea as “shoo esmo hayda” (“what’s-his-name”) and to the Maronites as “jins `atel” (a bad breed). Michael Young reads the whole incident as a plot engineered by Jumblatt himself, which will eventually bite him in the ass.

And finally, coming full circle, +961 has a great post on the Lebanese Forces’ response to the FPM “Soit Belle” campaign, and the Aounists’ counter-response, which references the whole Jumblatt debacle.

I tell you, I’m going to be sad when the campaign is over, but probably not as sad as all of these fresh-from-the-Gulf, out-of-work graphic designers who’ll finally have to go out and find real jobs.
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fpm-soit-belle-et-vote

We here at qifanabki.com are completely befuddled over the question of what all of these brilliant political ad designers are going to do when the electoral campaign is over.

What do you see as the subtext here? No, no, no, I refuse to believe that there is no subtext… we may be a superficial people with surgically-altered noses and silicone-enhanced lips, but we’ve also got plenty of cheek, which is where the Aounists’ tongues are firmly implanted, as far as this ad is concerned.

What’s the target? The beautiful people, the so-called valentinos of March 14th? The candidacy of Nayla Tueni? Or is it all just fun and games?

Speaking of fun and games, is anyone having more fun these days than General Michel Aoun? He was positively jovial in a recent press conference he gave, where he heralded the demise of the March 14th alliance. On the subject of Jumblatt’s notorious camera-phone moment (in which he took a big old dump on his own Christian allies), the General had this to say:

“We watch comfortably as March 14 ranks grow weaker,” Aoun said following the weekly meeting of his Change and Reform bloc.

“The only common factor that brought together the March 14 forces is external. This factor is starting to break up leaving them without a national strategy to follow,” he said.

“In the meantime, they are still stuck in power struggle,” Aoun added.

Aoun said “he expected noting better” from Jumblat, who described the Maronites as being “useless.”

“It is only natural that he says that,” Aoun said, adding he was not waiting for an apology from the Druze MP.

“Jumblat’s allies are the ones who should ask for an apology, not me,” he added.

I rarely say this, I know… but the General seems to have a point. Are the wheels finally starting to come off the wagon? wordpress stats

magic-numberI was thinking yesterday about the likely makeup of the next parliament, in the event of an opposition win.  The question that came to mind was: “How many seats does the Change & Reform bloc need to win in order to push the opposition over the 64-seat mark?”

For the past several months, polls published by both sides have predicted a swing of less than ten seats, and occasionally less than  five. When I did the numbers on the blog two months ago, I tentatively forecasted a very slim win for the opposition (66-62). Of course,  it could easily go the other way depending on how things play out in the swing districts of Beirut I, Zahle, and the Metn.

But assuming that this situation obtains, what would Lebanon’s new majority look like, in terms of its constituent blocs? Due to the built-in confessional quotas of the Lebanese political system, and the fact that Hizbullah has pointedly refrained from seeking more parliament seats than it won in 2005, a March 8th majority would — by necessity — have to be dominated by the Michel Aoun-led Change & Reform bloc.

In 2005, Hizbullah, AMAL, and their allies (SSNP, Baath, and a couple of independents) won 35 seats, while the FPM and its allies in the Change & Reform bloc won 21 seats, producing an opposition of 56 seats (out of 128). Assuming that Hizbullah/AMAL/& friends can win 35 again (a safe bet), Aoun’s bloc will have to come up with at least 30 seats to get to 65. If Hizbullah and Berri offer Aoun their three seats in the Christian district of Jezzine (which they swept in 2005), this will mean that the Change & Reform Bloc (which will include the Free Patriotic Movement, Suleiman Frangieh’s Marada, Elias Skaff’s Zahle list, Tashnaq, and some independents) will be 33-strong. And this is under the condition that the opposition wins only the slimmest of majorities, at 65. If they bump it to 68, C&R could have as many as 36 seats, which is the number that the Future Movement won in 2005.

The point: if March 8 wins, Aoun will be the big man on campus as he will preside over a bloc that is larger than all of Hizbullah, AMAL, etc. combined, and this is surely by design. To those who scoff, saying that while Aoun may look like he is in charge, everybody will know who wears the pants in the coalition, I would simply advise you to spend half an hour with the General. You’ll be disabused of that notion (and your pants too, for that matter) rather quickly.

I’ve been reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan lately, and so I feel slightly sheepish prognosticating about the elections. Let me offer a couple of caveats, then: (1) I’m wearing pajamas as I write this, not a suit and tie; (2) If anything highly unexpected happens like war breaking out or someone getting assassinated — ok, maybe not that unexpected — all bets are off.
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I promise to lay off March 14th at some point this week and go back to bashing Napole-aoun, but credit should be given where credit is due. The silly flag billboards all around Lebanon have been replaced by Future Movement electoral campaign billboards (coincidence?), and as Bech explains over at Remarkz, the results are often puzzling. Take a look:

mustaqbal-posters

The posters read, from left to right: (1) The future is where you will spend the rest of your life; (2) In order to know the future, you have to build it; (3) The future is promising, without a doubt. The third poster is the only one which permits a full analogical reading, producing “The Future [Movement] has promised, without a doubt,” alongside the literal “future is promising” message. It’s a little bit clunky and unoriginal, but I suppose it works. Maybe the Future Movement is ripping off the “promise” motif from Hizbullah in exchange for the latter having ripped off M14′s “clenched fist” motif.

hizbposter

There are several symbolic elements in play here. The famous Hizbullah logo has been purposefully faded behind the bold-faced “Lebanon”, alongside the party’s three “no to’s”: division, naturalization (of the Palestinian refugees), and emigration (of Lebanese to the diaspora). In the lower left-hand corner, the mandatory fist-cedar combination logo sits above the Hizb’s 2009 election slogan: “Resist with your vote”.

(I’m still trying to find a picture of Khomeini or Mughniyeh somewhere on this billboard, but I just don’t see it. I’ll keep looking though.)

Once again, honors must go to the FPM, who circulated this spoof of the Future Movement’s ubiquitous billboards:

lamustaqbal

Translation: “There is no future without change.”
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electoral-car1The Future Movement launched its electoral campaign last night at BIEL with a (rather unusually) charismatic speech by Saad al-Hariri. Eschewing the teleprompters (and correct desinential inflection, alas) al-Hariri built up to a stirring crescendo:

“Dear loved ones, there are nine weeks left until June 7. There are nine weeks before we fill the ballot boxes with our loyalty to Rafik al-Hariri and all the martyrs of the Cedars Revolution. Nine weeks before we are together in Beirut, in Tripoli, in Akkar, Dinniyeh, Minieh, Koura, Batroun, Zgharta and the entire North. Nine weeks before we are together in Mount Lebanon, with Walid Jumblatt in the Chouf, in Saida and the entire South. Nine weeks before we come together in West Bekaa, Rashaya, Zahle, Baalbek and Hermel and all of North Bekaa. Nine weeks before the election of Lebanon as a capable state and a democratic regime… We have nine weeks to elect Lebanon as it should be and to make our dreams and hopes for the future generations…”

Clever rhetorical device, the repetition of “nine weeks…,” conveying both urgency and optimism (while reminding the Lebanese when the election will be held, just in case the whole country is at the beach on what will likely be a balmy Sunday in June.) Still, I found myself thinking: “Nine weeks until the election, and we still don’t know who the hell is running…”

That’s right, the electoral lists are still incomplete, which brings me to my point. Campaigning in Lebanon seems to be about everything but the candidates. We’ve got the campaign posters, the massive demonstrations, the glitzy coming-out parties… but little substance. bielThe Future Movement’s campaign launch last night was a case in point: a huge auditorium that looked like the set of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, packed with well-heeled Libanais doused in blue mood lighting. Everybody looked like a million bucks, and they all seemed to be very enthusiastic about what Saad was saying… but I still can’t really tell you what actual programs and initiatives his party is committed to.

By Wednesday morning, the candidate lists will be unveiled and we will finally know just how much horsetrading has been done behind the scenes. Here are my favorite instances thus far.

(1) Over the weekend, As-Safir confirmed rumors that the Free Patriotic Movement had reached a deal to include former minister Fares Boueiz on their Keserwan list. Check out this thread on the Tayyar forum to see what the rank-and-file think about allying with a “rancid geriatric” for political purposes. (So impolite, the young!)

(2) Walid Jumblatt had to free up two seats in Aley and Baabda for the Kataeb and the National Liberal Party. He complained about it in the press, saying “The inability of a non-partisan Christian to run for Parliament in these two districts is a sad and disconcerting thing.” Practically in the same breath, however, he announced that he would be dumping another MP (Faysal al-Sayegh) on the Aley list because “Mir Talal Arslan has the right to be represented in the Aley district.”

That’s right. He called him Mir. His hereditary title. It takes a special brand of cynicism to bitch about Lebanon’s imperfect democracy and then to keep a straight face as you justify your horsetrading on the basis of inalienable feudal privilege. What else did he promise Arslan, the jus primae noctis of Aley’s blushing virgins?

One step forward, two steps back…

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metn2009

Lebanese daily As-Safir (which leans towards the opposition) has a very interesting analysis of the results of a poll conducted by Information International (the premier polling organization in Lebanon [see their blog here]). On the face of it, it seems to suggest that Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement and its allies are more popular than March 14th, but the numbers also reveal that Aoun’s support has in fact slipped in the majority-Christian region.

Of the 67.5% of respondents who said that they would vote for the entire list of candidates submitted by either side, 39.6% said that they would vote for the FPM, while 26.3% chose March 14. This, in and of itself, is of potential concern for the Aounists, who captured seven of eight seats in the 2005 election.

metn2005

The 2005 Election Results in the Metn (source Yalibnan.com)

Among the 27.2% of respondents who said they would vote for an adjusted list of candidates, the two most popular politicians were Michel el-Murr (a newly anti-Aoun “independent”) and Sami Gemayel (son of M14 stalwart, former President Amin Gemayel), followed by Ibrahim Kanaan (a smart FPM lieutenant). Tellingly, of all Maronites polled, 34.5% support March 14 while 29.8% support the FPM.

The study concludes that if the election were held today, the FPM would win 5-6 seats while March 14th would win 2-3 (Sami Gemayel, Nassib Lahoud, and Sarkis Sarkis [depending on whether or not he allies with M14 this time around]). Of course, this does not take into account the “independent” Orthodox seat that is a lock for Michel el-Murr, who has left the FPM camp. All in all, therefore, as a result of alliance shifting and waning support, the Aounists may be looking at a loss of three seats in the Metn.

Not a great way to capture a parliamentary majority. On the other hand, if Aoun convinces Ghassan al-Rahbani to run, the Metn may be singing a different tune, come June.
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