June 15, 2010

Is the Iranian Aid Convoy to Gaza Under Hezbollah’s Protection?

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Conspiracy Chronicles, Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon | Tags: , , , , |
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Conspiracy Chronicles series, no. 7

Iran is sending a convoy of aid ships to Gaza, according to Iranian state radio. Reuters is reporting that one ship left on Sunday and another “loaded with food, construction material and toys” will leave by this Friday.

We haven’t had an episode in our conspiracy chronicles series in a while, so I’m pleased to bring you the following nugget from a Beirut-based source who describes himself as “a western expert brainwashed by bad operas dedicated to Imad Mughniyeh and bought by iranian petro-lucre…”

According to my source (who got his information from “a bearded taciturn birdie”) these Iranian ships are under the protection of the muqawama. “Any trouble, and whoosh whooosh boom…”

You should know that this isn’t the first time that Iran has sent aid ships, and on previous occasions the ships have been turned around by the Israeli Navy without any incident. I don’t imagine that Hizbullah would actually take any serious action in the event of a repeat of the Freedom Flotilla disaster, but don’t say you weren’t warned…

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June 5, 2010

Damocles’s Armory

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Lebanon | Tags: , , , , |
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I know several foreigners who are traveling to Lebanon this summer, and so I’m routinely asked about the chances of “something happening” while they are there.

I usually adopt a thoughtful expression, pause for a moment, and tell them not to worry. This seems to work.

Sometimes, if I am feeling mischievous, I adopt a thoughtful expression, cock an eyebrow and say: “Do you want me to be honest?” After the color drains from their face, I squint into the distance, furrow my brow, and scratch my head as though I am preparing to break some tough news. And then I say, not very convincingly: “You probably don’t have to worry about anything. Have fun!”

All of this travel advice has gotten me thinking, though. Is there any other country in the region that is vulnerable to so many (apparently) existential threats? We Lebanese seem to cultivate them. Rather than a single sword of Damocles, we seem to have acquired an entire armory’s worth, a flashing chandelier of watered-steel blades suspended over our heads.

Here are some of my favorites:

1. The War — You know, the Big One. The one that’s coming soon, maybe as soon as next week. It’s just a matter of time before Israel decides to launch another war against Hizbullah, and this time there won’t be anything left once the dust settles. It’ll be the end of Lebanon as we know it…

2. The Hariri Tribunal — Once indictments are issued, we can expect the country to descend into chaos, particularly if Syria’s allies are implicated in any way. The mini-era of reconciliation will be over and it’ll be back to the street riots, but this time things will escalate into a full blown civil war. It’ll be the end of Lebanon as we know it…

3. The Debt — Now over $52 billion USD (or around 150% of GDP), Lebanon’s public debt threatens to capsize the country’s fragile economy and send it the way of Greece and California. If that it happens, it’ll be the end of Lebanon as we know it…

4. The Emigrants — Lebanon’s youth are emigrating in record numbers to the Gulf, Europe, Canada, Africa, Australia, etc. because they can’t find decent jobs in their own country. Pretty soon, Beirut will be populated entirely by wealthy foreign expats (and their exploited housekeepers). It’ll be the end of Lebanon as we know it…

5. Pollution — Lebanon’s famously green forests and picturesque mountains are being chopped down and detonated into rubble by fat-cat oligarchs and their wasta-obtained rukhsas. Meanwhile, the Mountain of Trash in Saida is turning our coastline into a disease-ridden Petri dish. Pretty soon, there will be no reason for wealthy foreign expats (and their exploited housekeepers) to buy property here at all, which means that it’ll be the end of Lebanon as we know it…

6. The Earthquake – An undersea earthquake off the coast creates a massive tsunami that washes us all away. As we all know, the country is crisscrossed by fault lines. One big quake, and it’ll be the end of Lebanon as we know it…

What am I missing?

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May 19, 2010

OneMideast.org Launches

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Israel, Lebanon, Syria | Tags: , , , |
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I’m pleased to announce the launch of OneMideast.org, a website that has been in development for about a year now. Here’s the skinny on it:

OneMideast.org is an online discussion arena intended for raising and debating ideas central to the Arab-Israeli peace process.

The project, which represents the first joint Syrian-Israeli online dialogue of its kind, was formed through the efforts of private individuals from both countries — bloggers, academics, political analysts, journalists, and businesspeople — who set out to produce an extensive list of objections to peace commonly encountered in both Syrian and Israeli societies.

Through a voting process, the group collectively settled upon two “Top Twenty Lists” of objections to peace (one Syrian, one Israeli), and then set about attempting to produce the most effective counter-arguments to each objection.

The results of the project are available for download (text and podcast) on the OneMideast.org website. During its next phase, OneMideast.org will invite experts and opinion leaders from both countries to discuss the challenges associated with the Syrian-Israeli peace process, and to submit constructive feedback for publication on the site.

Credit for the lion’s share of the thought and work behind this project must go to my friend Camille Otrakji, who is a true dynamo. Other folks involved include Joshua Landis of Syria Comment, Yo’av Stern of Ha’aretz and the Peres Center for Peace, and many other folks who regularly read this blog.

The site has already been profiled in The Christian Science Monitor, The Guardian and The Huffington Post, and will also be covered by a few other news outlets in the coming days. I’ll have more to say about the project as well, but for now please feel free to check it out, and come back here to comment (as I don’t think that we’ve enabled commenting yet on the actual site).

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April 22, 2010

SCUD-D vs. Fateh-110

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, Syria | Tags: , , , , |
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The SCUD-D (above) vs. the Fateh-110 (below).

The Syria-Hizbullah-SCUD crisis has generated an incredible amount of press in the last week. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman was dressed down yesterday before Congress for defending Obama’s engagement policy with Syria, and Foreign Policy alone has carried something like three opinion pieces about the issue just in the past couple of days.  (For an up-to-date survey of all the most recent stories, I suggest checking Syria Comment.)

What nobody seems to be asking, though, is why these hypothetical SCUDs are so much more “game-changing” than all of the other armaments that have apparently flowed to Hizbullah from Syria since 2006, and in particular the Fateh 110 missile. The two rockets, when you compare them, are not hugely different, at least when one considers the geographical and strategic context that we’re dealing with. Let’s compare the specifications:

Ok, so the SCUD-D can travel farther than the Fateh 110, and it can carry a heavier payload. But how important are these differences, strategically speaking? The Fateh 110′s range is around 200-250 km, which is far enough to strike Tel Aviv from as far north as Beirut. Sure, a SCUD-D could hit Be’er Sheva from Tripoli, but is that really the definition of “game-changing”?

Plus, the SCUD is more difficult to hide, harder to maneuver, and probably easier to shoot down than the Fateh 110. If you were an Israeli, what would you rather face? A dozen SCUDs or a thousand Fateh 110′s?

I can’t help but wonder if all of the hullabaloo in the Western press isn’t stemming from the Soviet mystique of the SCUD, one of the most famous missiles in history, and the weapon used by Saddam against Israel in 1991. To put it in medieval terms, it would be like raising the threat level to DEFCON 1 because the enemy’s army (previously equipped with standard issue longswords) had just recently received a shipment of scimitars. Whoooooo, scimitars! They’re… umm, sharper.

Or am I being obtuse?

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April 14, 2010

Scudding Right Along

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Lebanon, The Qnion | Tags: , , , , , |
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DAMASCUS, Syria — U.S. and Israeli officials have reacted negatively to reports that Syria has transferred Scud missiles to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Israel has called the development a “game-changing” move by Syria which has the potential to tip the region into a military conflagration.

“Syria claims it wants peace while at the same time it delivers Scuds to Hezbollah, whose only goal is to threaten the state of Israel,” said Israeli President Shimon Peres recently to an Israeli radio station.

Meanwhile, both Syria and Hezbollah are denying that any such transfer of armaments has taken place. However, high-level officials within the Syrian regime spoke to Qnion senior correspondent Jacob Tafnis yesterday evening, quietly confirming that Syria had been considering the move.

“We will not say that any Scuds have gone into Lebanon… yet,” said one official, asking to remain anonymous. “But we reserve the right to assist our neighbor whether or not they are interested in our assistance.”

When asked what the effect of such a move might be on Syrian engagement with the U.S. and the upcoming appointment of Robert Ford as ambassador to Damascus, the official responded: “We are confident that nothing is going to stop President Obama from engaging with us,” citing a recent article in Haaretz that alluded to Obama administration officials saying that “the Scud transfer made a U.S. diplomatic presence in Syria all the more necessary.”

“You see?” the official said. “The more we send weapons to Lebanon, the more they want to engage us,” he chortled happily. “I can tell you that we also have plans to establish a nuclear weapons facility in Gemmayzeh, a chemical weapons plant in Burj al-Barajneh, and a dedicated airstrip for unmanned drones right at the Beirut International Airport,” adding with a conspiratorial wink, “but you didn’t hear that from me.”

Meanwhile, in Gemmayzeh (Beirut’s popular nightlife district), rents are reported to be rising in anticipation of the new nuclear weapons plant, while local residents are hoping that the radiation will convince revelers to take their boisterous partying across town.

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March 25, 2010

Tribunal Investigators in Lebanon for 3D Filming

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Hezbollah, Lebanon | Tags: , , , , , |
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That’s right, folks. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) has dispatched a team of 3D filmmakers to Lebanon to shoot a sequel to Avatar set in downtown Beirut. Or something like that.

There have been several notable items in the press over the past week about Hezbollah. Rather than spending an hour trying to figure out how to coax them all into a single exquisite narrative, I’m going to just dump them in your lap.

Investigators from the STL are in town, questioning various people about the Hariri case. Some of these people include members of Hezbollah, and the party has reportedly welcomed the investigators with open arms, endless cups of tea, and an assortment of Hezbollah-themed memorabilia (pens, hats, notepads, etc.)

You will recall the article in Der Spiegel last year arguing that the Hariri assassination was carried out by Hezbollah. Today, Wi’am Wahhab suggests that the STL is getting ready to accuse slain Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyyeh. Wahhab is not a very credible source, and it may just be that he’s not prepared to give up the limelight (after calling on President Suleiman to resign last week, which put him on the front page of every newspaper in Lebanon).

Finally, Nicholas Noe and Azmi Bishara each published an interesting opinion piece about Hezbollah last week. I highly recommend you read both of them as the differences in their analyses are symptomatic of how divided the commentariat is on the issue of the balance of power between Hezbollah and Israel. To be fair, Nick’s analysis is really focused on Hezbollah’s own assessment of this balance of power while Bishara tries to adopt a macro picture, but the articles are worth being read together.

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December 15, 2009

Sleiman meets Obama

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Hezbollah, Lebanon | Tags: , , , , , |
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President Michel Suleiman met with President Obama yesterday afternoon in the Oval Office. Judging from the two leaders’ remarks at the post-meeting press conference, it seems like it went roughly according to script.

Sleiman: Thank you for receiving us Mr. President.

Obama: Thank you for coming, Mr. President. It’s an honor to have you.

Sleiman: We would like to discuss the issue of US military aid to Lebanon.

Obama: Of course. As you know, we have reservations about US weapons reaching Hezbollah blah blah blah…

Sleiman: I’m glad you brought that up because we want to express our strongest opposition to the Israeli threats that are blah blah blah…

Obama: Well you see, that’s where we disagree blah blah blah…

Sleiman: Well I think you’ll find that blah blah blah…

Obama: Well, I think that we can both agree that blah blah blah…

Sleiman: Well, no, actually blah blah blah…

Obama: Oh my, look at the time! I’m afraid I have to run off and get back to the business of creating several million jobs, turning around the world’s largest economy, and passing a historic health care bill that could be the single greatest legacy of my presidency. But here, don’t forget your White House souvenir pen!

Sleiman: Thank you Mr. President.

**

To the right, you will find President Obama’s schedule for Monday, December 14, 2009. Besides his all-important meeting with the Lebanese president, Obama had a few other minor things on his plate, like the effort to salvage the Senate bill that Joe Lieberman’s defection had threatened to scuttle.

This was followed by a meeting with a bunch of financial titans, and a statement on the economy. Nothing really that important. Just the everyday run-of-the-mill things that a President has to keep an eye on.

This is why I’m sure that the Lebanese delegation’s negotiation strategy for its half hour slot with the most powerful man in the world was pitch-perfect. They went in there, complained about Israel, demanded military aid with no preconditions, and pretended not to know anything about any weapons being smuggled to anyone. Brilliant! And so unexpected!

I’m sure they gave that Obama something to think about while he was snoozing through all of his other (far less important) meetings.
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November 18, 2009

Defensive Strategy

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Lebanon, QNMZ | Tags: , |
[31] Comments 

(The scene: a Beirut cafe)

Abu Michel: Says here in as-Safir that the next Israel-Lebanon war is gonna happen next April.

Abu Samir: You still read that rag? An-Nahar says that the war is gonna be sooner than that. January, February, maximum.

Abu Michel: Impossible.

Abu Samir: Suit yourself.

Abu Michel: The Israelis won’t attack in the winter. A winter campaign would be a nightmare for them. Low cloud cover makes flying conditions bad, and their soldiers will be disoriented in our valleys and mountains when they’re surrounded by fog.

Abu Samir: You think they’re going to care what they bomb, next time around? They’re going to bomb the entire country indiscriminately, from top to bottom, cloud cover or not. Once they’re done with that, they’ll send in their sissy soldiers.

Abu Michel: They wouldn’t dare bomb the entire country. Hezbollah will bomb Tel Aviv and Dimona.

Abu Samir: As per Iran’s instructions?

Abu Michel: Funny. What is March 14 doing about defending us from Israeli aggression?

Abu Samir: We just got Russia to donate 10 MiG 29′s.

Abu Michel: Ha! You think ten busted Russian jets are going to deter the Israelis?!

Abu Samir: You think a bunch of Katyushas are?!

(silence)

Abu Michel: (whispering conspiratorially) Look… at the end of the day, the resistance’s weapons are meant to prevent the worst possible scenario: naturalization of the Palestinians.

Abu Samir: Of course. What do you think the MiG’s are for?

Abu Michel: Of course, of course.

Abu Samir: Pass the sugar, will you?

**

Thanks are due to the talented Maya Zankoul, who agreed to illustrate what I hope will turn into a new series on this blog.

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November 4, 2009

Syrians Unveil New Secret Weapon

Posted by Qifa Nabki under The Qnion | Tags: , , |
[58] Comments 

The influential Middle Eastern politics blog, Syria Comment, has the scoop on a new development in the Syrian security apparatus that has “the potential to change the strategic balance of power in the region.” Here’s an excerpt:

However, on the heels of the Der Spiegel article, new evidence has emerged from Syria suggesting that the computer hacked by the Mossad agents was a decoy deliberately intended to distract Israel’s attention away from a much more deadly Syrian secret weapon under development.

Read the full article here.
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October 25, 2009

Israel Unveils Plans for Massive Hummus-Themed Resort

Posted by Qifa Nabki under Lebanon, The Qnion | Tags: , , |
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hummus land map

TEL AVIV, Israel — Fresh on the heels of a successful Lebanese bid to win the Guinness World Record for the largest plate of hummus, the Israeli Ministry of Tourism has announced plans to steal back the record by launching a massive “hummus-themed luxury resort and spa” in the north of the country.

“Hummus-Land” (pronounced khoo-moos-land) will feature an enormous lagoon filled with hummus in which holiday-goers “will be able to swim, take canoe rides, and rejuvenate their bodies through the healing antioxidizing power of puréed chickpeas.”

The lagoon will feature a meandering “lazy creek”, a wave pool, several cascading waterfalls, and even a shark reef — all filled with hummus.

An artist's rendering of a family enjoying the Hummus Land Lagoon.

An artist's rendering of a family enjoying the Hummus Land Lagoon.

“The total volume of hummus that is pumped through the park each day will exceed a million cubic meters,” said the executive director of the Hummus-Land project, Amos Cohen. “This will make the Lebanese 2,506 kilogram dish seem like a joke,” he said, snickering. “Our kiddie pool alone will have twenty times that much hummus in it.”

Mr. Cohen said that there were also plans to incorporate other “ancient Israeli dishes like zaatar, couscous, shawarma, and falafel” into the park’s attractions. One ride that is currently under development, Falafel Mountain, would send thrill-seekers on an eight-minute roller-coaster ride, tunneling inside a giant falafel the size of a football stadium.

“All the materials would be organic and edible, which are obviously not suitable for building,” admits Mr. Cohen. “But we are confident that a new breakthrough technology developed by an Israeli company will enable us to turn the falafel mix into a kind of durable cement,” he said, adding quickly, “It would still be edible, though.”

shebaa farmsThe project is sure to inflame Lebanese-Israeli tensions, not least because of the location of the site chosen for Hummus Land: the Shebaa Farms, a disputed twelve-mile strip on the border of the two countries.

“Israel is a crowded country,” said Mr. Cohen. “There is no room for a project on this scale. So why not make use of Shebaa? It’s not like we’re ever going to give it back to the Lebanese, the poor bastards.”

A spokesman for the Association of Lebanese Industrialists (which sponsored the Lebanese bid for the world record) could not reached for comment.

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By Qifa Nabki

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