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Lebanon: Fair-Weather Model or the Eye of the Storm?

Theodor Hanf famously described Lebanon’s consociational system as a “fair-weather model,” meaning that it sails smoothly under sunny skies but is not built for stormy conditions. I found myself thinking back to this statement as I observed the remarkably smooth accession of Tammam Salam last week to the post of Lebanon’s Prime Minister. Compared with … Continue reading

Mikati’s Resignation Signals the Collapse of the Lebanese Idea, Renewed Civil War, and the End of the World as We Know It

The media reaction to the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati last week has been puzzling, from my perspective. CNN says that the resignation “throws Lebanon’s politics in turmoil” while The Economist warns the Lebanese to “be careful,” as “Lebanon’s delicate sectarian system is in danger of falling apart.” Not to second-guess the propensity of the … Continue reading

Miqati Resignation Threat Looming

LBC is reporting (on Twitter) that Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Miqati is headed to the Grand Serail to announce his resignation over the current cabinet squabble concerning the extension of Ashraf Rifi’s tenure as director of the Lebanese Internal Security Forces (ISF). I spoke to NOW Lebanon’s Alex Rowell yesterday about this issue, suggesting that … Continue reading

Exploring the Implications of a Single National District

Last week, Hizbullah chief Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah announced his party’s support for an electoral law based on a single national district. In the past, the main champion of this idea has been Speaker Nabih Berri, but there has never been an occasion to take the possibility seriously since Lebanon’s electoral laws have generally not departed … Continue reading

A Questionable Strategy

It didn’t take long for OTV and al-Akhbar to point out the same inconsistencies that I noticed in Okab Sakr’s testimony last week, and release responses comparing the segments “added” by Sakr to the original clips that they had published. (See here for the OTV clip; al-Akhbar‘s most recent response can be found here.) Even if there is … Continue reading

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