voting day

** I will be updating this post throughout the day with election coverage, so check back regularly (scrolling to the bottom) to keep abreast of the developments.

11:30 AM — I hit the road this morning bright and early at 7am, determined to beat the traffic down south to Saida. It took me a mere half hour to arrive at the election center in the little suburb of al-Hilaliyyeh, which is part of the larger district of al-Zahrany. A few Lebanese Forces volunteers in bright red and white t-shirts milled around sheepishly on the street, handing out ballots for their candidate, Robert al-Khoury. Closer to the entrance, members of Nabih Berri’s Amal party passed out ballots for the frontrunner’s list.

I was struck by how calm and orderly everything was. Soldiers and police manned the entrances and exits, checking every voter’s identification card before letting him or her in, one by one, to vote. When I entered the voting area, an official with the election supervisory board spent five minutes searching fruitlessly for “Qifa Nabki” on the voter registration lists before I remembered what my real name was  (just kidding), and then he directed me to a voting booth. Inside the booth, the names of all the candidates were prominently displayed, and there were pencils and slips of paper available to create your own ballot, if you didn’t use one of the pre-printed ballots being handed out by party representatives outside the voting center.

That’s right, I created my own ballot. This election, for all of its innovations, is being conducted without official, pre-printed ballots. After writing out the names of my candidates, I folded the paper and slipped it into an official little envelope with the seal of the Ministry of the Interior on it. I then came out of the booth, dropped the envelope into the transparent ballot box, signed the voter registration list, dipped my left thumb into a pot of indelible purple ink, and that was that!

Leaving the election center, someone tried to slip me a “thank you” voucher for $20 worth of gasoline at the Sahyouneh gas station on the way out of Saida, but I politely declined the offer.

On the way back home, I drove into Achrafieh and around Hamra to get a sense for what the scene was like. More of the same: people making their way to voting centers in an orderly fashion; party representatives passing out ballots to people in cars at intersections; soldiers everywhere. I collected a few of these ballots as souvenirs. As you can see below, there isn’t a whole lot of room on each ballot to scratch out any names and replace them with others; this is, of course the point, such that voters are compelled to vote for an entire slate, “zayy/mitl ma hiyye” (just as it is).

purple ink

**

1:00PM — Some people have been asking for information on the different electoral lists. Here is a very useful document that was sent to me by Richard Chambers, director of IFES, which shows all of the candidates running in the different districts, organized according to their affiliations. Note that it’s a few weeks old, so things may have changed in a couple of places.

Just to clear up some confusion — to which I was alerted by Helena Cobban’s too-kind endorsement of our coverage here at Chez QN: the system of creating your own ballots is not what is new in this election. It is actually a holdover from the old, woefully inadequate electoral law designed by Syria’s intelligence chief in Lebanon, Ghazi Kanaan (RIP), in 2000. What is new is all of the oversight and supervisory dimensions, the multitudes of international observers, the spending limits (which seem to have had little effect, alas), the registration deadlines, and the highly controlled environment at the polling stations.

**

2:40PM — There’s an interesting debate on al-Jazeera right now, hosted by Beirut bureau chief Ghassan Ben Jeddo. Abdo Saad, a prominent pollsters, has just finished saying that “we, in Lebanon, need a new social contract. We need to get rid of this parliamentary system and replace it with a presidential system.”

There is no real news besides turnout data (which looks good in some places, not so good in others). Traffic is smooth, but there are long waits outside many of the polling stations. Security incidents are minor and isolated. Minister Ziad Baroud has said that results might be announced by midnight tonight or by dawn tomorrow.

**

4:15PM — There have been several statements (mostly from opposition leaders) that the lines at many polling stations are simply too long and people are giving up and going home. Rumors are circulating that the 7PM deadline may be extended.

**

4:30PM — Minister of Interior Ziad Baroud is currently on television, giving a press conference. He is saying that the 2009 electoral law permits any voter standing in line within the perimeter of a voting center before 7PM is entitled to vote, even if she/he gets to the voting booth after 7PM. So this means that voting could continue well into the evening.

Baroud also said that in 2005, the total voter turnout was on the order of 45%. Today, as of 3PM, the turnout was already 40%, so we’re dealing with unprecedented numbers.

**

4:45PM — Those of you on Twitter, there’s a great deal of information being circulated between various Lebanese observers. I will add my own Twitter feed in the blog sidebar for breaking news.

**

7:00PM — Polls have officially closed. It seems that voters still in line will be allowed to reach the ballot box, but any latecomers will be turned away. Check my Twitter feed in the sidebar for more detailed updates.

**

8:20PM — Interior Minister Ziad Baroud just gave a press conference, in which he announced that the voter turnout this year was over 52%, which represents a 20% increase from the last election in 2005. Also, the ministry will be releasing the results of each district as it is counted; they’re not going to wait until tomorrow to announce them all. This means that I, for one, will be up all night.

**

8:45PM — Waiting for numbers. Early exit polling from Beirut 1 (Achrafieh) shows opposition up 49% to 47%.

**

9:40PM — A lot of the early exit polls coming in show a slight preference for the opposition in those crucial Christian districts where the FPM strategy depended on clean sweeps. For an interesting first-hand take on the polling stations from an election observer, check out this contribution in the comment section.

**

10:00PM — Some interesting results coming out of the FPM polling page: It looks like, with around 50% of the polling stations reporting, Gebran Bassil (Aoun’s son-in-law) is trailing both M14 candidates in the two-seat district of Batroun. Meanwhile, with 10% of polling stations reporting in Baabda and Beirut 1, the M14 candidates are also looking good. Of course, one has to bear in mind that the site also suggests that the FPM’s candidates in the Chouf are ahead of the Jumblatt juggernaut that will eventually crush them, once all the results are in, so I guess we just have to wait for some hard, representative numbers.

**

10:45PM — March 14 looks like it will pick up two extra seats in Saida and Batroun, and its polling looks good in Zahle and Beirut 1. We may indeed be heading towards a tie.

**

11:45PM — LBC is reporting what could amount to two major upsets in Zahle and Koura: 7-0 and 3-0, respectively, in favor of March 14. We will have to wait for final numbers, but if these results hold, then we could well be heading for a March 14 victory in these parliamentary elections.

**

12:15PM — LBC is more or less confirming a win for March 14. 61-38 with 29 seats still undetermined. I will have a graph up with the results soon enough.

**

12:30 PM — LBC is confirming roughly 68 seats for the majority. Here is my tentative breakdown of at least 64 of those seats. I will adjust it as the numbers come in.

2009 tentative results

wordpress stats