The big news in Lebanese politics these days is Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s exoneration of Syria in the matter of his father’s assassination. Here’s the relevant section of last week’s interview in Al-Sharq al-Awsat:
وقال الحريري: «فتحت صفحة جديدة في العلاقة مع سورية منذ تأليف الحكومة». وتابع: «يجب على المرء أن يكون واقعيا في هذه العلاقة لبنائها على أسس متينة، كما عليه أن يقيم السنوات الماضية، حتى لا تتكرر الأخطاء السابقة. ومن هنا، نحن أجرينا تقييمنا لأخطاء حصلت من قبلنا مع سورية، مست بالشعب السوري، وبالعلاقة بين البلدين. علينا دائما أن ننظر إلى مصلحة الشعبين والدولتين وعلاقتهما، ونحن في مكان ما ارتكبنا أخطاء؛ ففي مرحلة ما اتهمنا سورية باغتيال الرئيس الشهيد، وهذا كان اتهاما سياسيا».
وعن موقفه من قضية «شهود الزور»، قال الحريري: «حكي الكثير عن موضوع شهود الزور. هناك أشخاص ضللوا التحقيق، وهؤلاء ألحقوا الأذى بسورية ولبنان.. وشهود الزور هؤلاء، خربوا العلاقة بين البلدين وسيسوا الاغتيال». وعن محكمة الحريري، قال: «لا أريد أن أتكلم كثيرا عن المحكمة، لكني سأقول فقط إن للمحكمة مسارها الذي لا علاقة له باتهامات سياسية كانت متسرعة».
[Rough translation: We made mistakes that had a detrimental effect upon our relationship with Syria. We have to always take into consideration the interests of both countries and both peoples. We accused Syria of assassinating Rafiq al-Hariri, and this was a political accusation. There were people who misled the investigation, and these false witnesses were the ones who ruined the relationship between Syria and Lebanon and politicized the assassination. The Tribunal has its own course that has nothing to do with hastily-made political accusations.]
As I’ve been arguing for the past few months, the Saudis (and perhaps also the Americans) are no longer interested in using the STL as a weapon against Syria. Hariri’s latest statement simply formalized what has long been an unspoken fait accompli.
Only two questions remain:
1) How will Hariri, the Saudis, and their Western allies deal with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon if/when it releases a damning indictment against Hizbullah?
2) What effect will the coup against the STL (by its own supporters no less) have upon Lebanon’s standing in the international community?
On the first question, it seems to me that the outlines of a final deal are beginning to come into view. Hariri has exonerated Syria, and has more or less already exonerated Hizbullah’s leadership (if we are to believe Nasrallah). With these two potential targets safeguarded, there are only a few ways for Hariri to defuse the STL:
(a) Blame the crime on “undisciplined members” of Hizbullah.
(b) End cooperation between the STL and the Lebanese government by blaming the “false witnesses” for misleading the investigation.
(c) Denounce the STL altogether and set up a Lebanese commission to formally authorize Nasrallah’s “evidence” against Israel.
None of these options is very satisfactory. As Hariri said himself, the STL has a life of its own, and those who imagine that he will be able to simply denounce it and move on with business as usual are fooling themselves.
What he seems to be doing is continuing his policy of containment: portraying himself as a friend of Damascus and Dahiyeh while waiting for the STL to deliver its results. At that point, he’ll rush to Assad and Nasrallah’s defense, but the damage will be done. It won’t be what some had once hoped for — regime change in Damascus, disarmament for Hizbullah — but it won’t be nothing.
Finally, apologies for being off the radar for a few weeks. I’m finishing my doctorate this year (inshallah), and preparing to apply for academic jobs. I imagine that posting will be fairly light throughout this semester.
I agree with your assessment, but it’s distinctly different that the 3 options you gave, maybe a 4th one was in order? Harriri has come to the realizations, as Walid Jumblatt quickly did in 77, and much slower in 2008 that the leadership in Damascus is going nowhere anytime soon and neither is their influence in Lebanon. He personally still feels the same animosity he felt in 2005 and probably wishes things have turned out differently but he has to play the political game for the sake of his family’s political interests and more importantly the Saudi’s. They grow up so fast don’t they? 😉
Nice to meet again. Hope You will land a good position, If not the ME, try Canada, things in US of A and good, and not so good, old Europe look kind of so so.
As for your present blog.
I vote for Modified option C, The Jews did it ! obviously.
Hello Elias and welcome back.
I think the article of Raghida Dergham in the Hayat probably best explains the complexity of this move by Hariri. I personally think it was a brilliant move, where Hariri seems to be leading the agenda and not just reacting. The statement in itself is an endorsement of the tribunal – what he is saying is let us put all the problems in this box called the tribunal adn then we can talk about other things.
Here is a link to Dergham’s article: http://www.raghidadergham.com/4rdcolumn.html
What we are witnessing with the STL is mostly deja vu: The Serbs thought that the ICTY was an anti Serb conspiracy, they also refused the hand over people, the conflict between Peace and Justice exists everywhere and is not confined to Lebanon. The STL, coming later and having the benefit of the experience of the other tribunals has built in some measures to deal with the expected problems. For example the STL has an innovation in that it can do trials in abstentia etc…
Hariri’s move has demonstrated also that the STL as an instrument can be useful in that it allows for political life and reconcilliation to resume normally by saying let us not deal with issues politically and let the STL deal with them.
cheers
nadim
Well QN, we have had divergent opinions on this issue for a while.
The so called earth shattering development by Hariri does not change anything about the status of the STL.
Saad Hariri is simply stating that as a PM his duties are to deal with countries such as Syria on nonpersonal basis. He is to be commended for that and he should have taken this position years ago.
Nothing , absolutely nothing will affect the workings of the STL even if Lebanon does decide not to pay its share as some are suggesting. This eventuality was expected by the UN who did determine that if Lebanon fails to meet its financial obligation then the SG would use his office to raise the required funds.
I do not understand what is meant by the statement that the STL was used as a tool against Syria and know it is not. The investigation at one time did point towards Syrian involvement and currently we do not know whether that is still the case or not. The STL has not issued any indictments and so all the analysis about what it might say or not say is pure guess work. The STL process and indictments are not for sale or for bargaining not to Sayed Nasrallah and not to Hariri or Saudi Arabia. The evidence is what it is and everyone will have to learn to accept the implications of the rule of law.
Ghassan,
you said ‘Nothing , absolutely nothing will affect the workings of the STL’
ummm??? what planet are you living on? maybe there’s nothing Lebanon can do, but there is a hell of a lot other countries (i.e. the US) can do to completely, let me repeat, COMPLETELY affect the STL’s ivestigation.
Innocent Criminal says:
“There is a hell of a lot other countries (i.e. the US) can do to completely, let me repeat, COMPLETELY affect the STL’s ivestigation.”
Can you please explain how is the US going to influence Bellmare and the STL. Specificity will be appreciated. No conspiracy theories please.
The regrettable lesson, learned over and over, is that those who suffer in the end are the innocent civilians. Political leaders end up with “kiss and make up” and, as the Lebanese saying goes (yalli darab darab woo yalli harab harab), those who struck, struck, and those who fled, fled. Sure, every now and then a political leader pays the price with his/her life but, like a lizard, political leadership in Lebanon continues with its corruption, often with full nepotism leading the way.
Political convenience maybe is dictating Hariri’s stance, which some consider enlightened, others brilliant, yet others practical, but to some of us for whom this assassination was a true potential turning point to full accountability leading, eventually, to a successful state, we are left with newly acquired disgusted desperation. For those of us in this club, politics (at least in the Middle East) was always a dirty game that’s best completely avoided while one focuses on objective endeavors in life. The small detour we might have taken towards revisiting this outlook has now led to a dead end. Goodbye once again Middle East politics.
I don’t think i can. Not convincingly at least and not without conspiracy theories. Otherwise many more capable journalists, pundits, commentators etc. would have done it ages ago.
First of all, I want to be clear about one thing. I believe the STL will point the finger directly or indirectly toward Syria/HA. But my point is that countries such as the US through their European allies who practically control the ICC CAN influence their investigation. You really cannot be that naïve to believe that institutions such as the ICC are unbiased or immune to outside control. Powerful governments are able to exert this control by various means. Whether by creating ‘false evidence’ through various intelligence agencies (here’s your conspiracy theory) or through more public and direct threats and actions. Just as they did ‘shortly before the entry into force of the Rome Statute in July 2002, the United States launched a full-scale multi-pronged campaign against the International Criminal Court, claiming that the ICC may initiate politically-motivated prosecutions against US nationals.’
some of these tools included the famous Bush threat that he would invade The Netherlands if they detain a US national or blocking aids to 35 allied countries. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3035296.stm
forcing Ocampo to decline investigating Iraq, Afghanistan and or Gaza due to American pressure. http://oldsite.globalsolutions.org/programs/law_justice/icc/resources/OTP_Iraq_Analysis.pdf
and while the ICC is technically independent from the UNSC (an institution controlled by the US) the latter has the ability to refer certain cases to the ICC, as is the case of Harriri’s assassination.
I do not have the will or the knowledge to go into the details of the STL’s investigation, but i think it’s understood that the investigation did not need to take 5 years or possibly longer for indictments, and that many of the courts actions in the past couple of years have been magically coinciding with the easing of the political situation in the region. I am not claiming they have interfered, because I have no evidence. But it’s certainly not beyond their ability to do so if they wished.
HP,
I share strongly your lofty aspirations for freedom ,democracy, sovereignty and political accountability. But where I disagree with you again rather strongly is in the analysis of what has transpired over the last five years.The belief in a Cedar Revolution was misplaced. I will spare you the details for a different forum but suffice it to say that revolutions are costly. Revolyutions imply someone paying a heavy price and they imply a radical change in beleifs, ideology and leaders. The so called Cedar Revolution was anything but a revolution. How can it be when it was led essentially by the same leaders? Who were they revolting against?What was the new ideology that they were favouring? If there ever were any potential roots for a revolution they were killed right from the start by the traditional leaders who masqueraded as revolutionaries.
The other crucial point on which we disagree is who is to be held responsible for this political mess in Lebanon? It is easy to blame the politicians but that is no where close to reality. Politicians and traditional leaders get to play their role only when we allow them to do so. The real blame in Lebanon, just like any other political system, is the citizen or rather the lack of citizenship. The real ones to blame are the individual citizens who will pledge unqualified allegiance to a traditional zaim and who will insist on a tribal identity. Ideas do not matter in this world of ours. People do get the government that they deserve. It is that simple.
GK,
I understand your analysis and must grudgingly concur with it. It still is heartbreaking to see how, whereas many, actually most, Lebanese individuals I know have shown the ability to rise above all this “lack of citizenship,” somehow, collectively, the country remains plagues by these modus operandi that abort any real progress.
My frequent allusions to the symbolic power of the “million man march” as Dergham’s article describes the gathering on March 14, 2005, is that many a participant was there out of individual initiative and not in sheep-like following of one or more leaders. I don’t think Lebanon had ever witnessed something like this before and certainly hasn’t since. I guess I must just keep the picture as a strong moment in history but one without fruitful consequences (yet?).
Nadim @ comment #3:
I am very impressed by the article you linked. It provides very good scenarios and analyses. At the same time it really highlights the complexities of these political relationships, complexities that should really keep folks like me as far away from delving into them as possible. Why is it that the political and tribal problems of small, tiny, countries are so much more complicated than the much more impactful and dramatic political problems between superpowers? [Yes, it is a rhetorical question. I really don’t want an answer.]
Innocent Criminal,
Have you noted how you contradicted yourself? First you say that the US and others will be able to influence the STL and then you say that you cannot explain how. I am afraid that to base such a major accusation about the integrity of a judicial body on a gut feeling will not do.
Then you proceed to give examples about how the Bush administration opposed the ICC. So what did that opposition achieve? Absolutely nothing besides damage to the US reputation.
And last but not least you question question why the investigation took five years? Are you seriously suggesting that even though you have no evidence about any malfeasance that a thorough investigation is grounds for wrong doing by the magistrates who have not yet been given the case?
Bush administration did achieve a lot. It managed to coerce the ICC out of investigating the 3 most major wars in the past 5 years. how is that not a perfect example of influencing the ICC?
Look, I respect your idealism. But this is not a perfect world. And as mentioned before, i will not be able to convince you otherwise since having hard evidence of actual intereference is hard to come by these days
i also dont believe i contradicted myself. i clearly said that its very possible that they CAN, through many channels, including backdoor ones, influence such investigations. That was my only point, that they CAN.
and by idealism, i mean that you are unwilling to descend into heresay, BS conspiracy theories, etc. but sometimes, just sometimes, just because we cannot prove something doesnt mean its not there.
IC — it is one thing to openly oppose the formation of a proposed court project and quash it politically. destroying one that is operational is likely well out of the US’s league, and the relevant precedent is, as you cited, the US’s failure to undermine the ICC itself as an institution.
GK,
As usual I do agree with you assessment of the situation. I disagree with the simplistic analysis by QN that USA or KSA do not want to “use” STL as a weapon. Maybe they can threaten or coerce but they can never STL as a weapon. Any administration is free to impose any sanctions or take diplamtic measures against Syria…
Now if the STL leads to the a stench eminating from Damascus please explain on how can any nation not take measures against Syria?
I think Hariri has maneuvered very nicely into calming the atmosphere in Lebanon. Also, he has distanced himself from any accusations of politicization of the STL.
It is just a semblance of the calm before the inevitable storm.
All said all these mean nothing. All these shifts seem to be in preparation of a confrontation with Iran. STL will play a role in justifying certain actions if needed. How the chips might fall would be anyone’s guess!
F,
i never said or felt that the US wanted to quash the creation of the ICC or destroy it after it’s created. i think what the Bush administration was doing is simple forceful political maneuvering to make it clear to the world that they will support the ICC as long as it excludes Americans from any indictments, forever. To that extent they very well succeeded. And once the ICC succumbed to American wishes the latter played ball but supporting the ICC in the UNSC and voting in favor of cases being referred to it.
Besides, my whole point is that the US is capable of effecting the investigation or through pressure toning down the language, evidence, accusations, etc. that might be coming out of it. Or, with the help of their allies rendering them irrelevant when they are finally out if it feels that would be in its strategic interests.
Al Safir, Al Akhbar, Moe Ra3d, Smeagol Jumblat, jameel’s nauseating press conference, Hariri’s mental and speech constipation, Jemayels’ stupidity and irrelevance and the whoring of everyone else to gain Syria’s favor.. que horror… que pendejadas… que enfermedad
Can the Lebanese descend any further?
Oh yes they can, and they will !
Not to mention all the sheeple behind them
a baa baa here & a baa baa there, everywhere a baa baa
Hay balad la2 moosh balad hay ortet bajam majmoo3een and ma2soomeen
V, how old are you?
HP,
I am 46, I left Lebanon in 1983. In 2005 I started going back thinking there is new hope however it’s a hopeless case, we never had a chance nor we deserved it, as always Lebanon’s main affliction and disease are the Lebanese themselves. I was just delirious when I believed in change.
V,
I understand your cynisim and disappointment, especially if you had hoped of someday returning for good to a more or less normal country.
For some of us, such as myself, who got so shocked by the early stages of the civil war and followed the events afterward from afar, vowed not to return for good (well can’t really with kids, job and all), the dissapointment is not as big.
That does not diminish our desire to see conditions improve for the country and its inhabitants. Just can’t help it do to the deep bond.
But I do understand where you’re coming from. Just keep in mind that it’s not easy to be Lebanon, the neighborhood and all.
Ras Beirut,
Lebanon’s single most important challenge , since its inception, has been the inability of its residents to develop allegiance to the idea of an independent sovereign state.
The most fundamental rationale for a state is the desire of its inhabitants to have a state. Lebanon has never ever come even close to meeting such metrics/standards.
GK,
I understand all that and then some, but we are where we are. There is a state called Lebanon that is recognized by the entire world. Can’t back out now. You’ve got to work with what you’ve got. No easy task for sure, in fact it’s a monumental challenge.
I think the real issue in Lebanon is that you have X number of political parties trying to play the same game, however each is playing according to their own rules. There is no constitution here. Yes we may have a document that is called the constitution, but when everyone and his brother wipes their you know what with it, then it is foolish to think it has any meaning.
While M14 (and I’m no fan of these monkeys) is trying to create some semblance of state institutions, M8 (my ideological leanings are here) is trying to destroy them. It’s insanely frustrating to see the people you root for constantly try to destroy the thing you are trying to build – under the pretense that they are trying to build it themselves. Either use your arms to dissolve the State and start anew or rebuild what we have – no more having it both ways GMA.
I think they (the FPM) have lost my vote for the next election. That said there is no way I can bring myself to vote for the corrupt, idiotic a/o war criminal so I guess I will just have to boycott.
What is sorely needed here (from the perspective of someone living the shit and not pondering it from afar) is a social contract. The social contract needs to be supported by rule of law. I still stand by the statement that a good way to introduce the social contract – to people that have no idea what it is – is through driving – not even the Lebanese can politicize driving.
So long as the sheeple currently living in Lebanon (as V correctly calls the great majority of Lebanese) do not recognize the need for a social contract or the rule of law, and those citizens that do recognize the need stay as far away as possible (all you readers) I’m sorry to say that this place will forever remain a political dump.
A great place to vacation or base oneself if ones work is in the MENA/East Europe region – yes – so long as you have a great contingency plan to get the hell out when all hell breaks loose. I got my donkeys and smuggle route sorted thanks very much. 🙂
Speaking of all hell breaking loose, there has been lots of talk about this these days. Some from press – http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&76829089E9928CDCC22577A2001E4167 – but lots from friends and family from both sides of the great political divide.
Is war looming with the approach of Fall? I seem to hear this question around every corner. Where are your bets being placed?
HP or QN, could you please ask Rani, AIG, Amir &/or other southerners what’s the sense south of the blue line? How intense is the current level of fear mongering there…
Since I live in Lebanon I can not risk asking an Israeli a direct question lest I be carted off and thrown in jail. Since I am not a card carrying member of the hizb or FPM I would not have calls for obstruction of justice just all around agreement for my hanging. Hey a cause all Lebanese can get behind…. 🙂
HP…How old are you!!! 😀
V, we all share your frustration. However, it is not fixable. I think most if not all just vent out at the wasted talents and the nation as well as our birthplace!
Yes war will come and destruction to follow if the sheeple and their mafioso gang leaders do not follow what HA and SHN demands them to do!
The new gauntlet is one of Jameel Seyyed; the corrupt Syrian puppet who tortured thousands of Lebanese as head of ISF!!
Well HA has decided that NO ONE can jail Jameel Seyyed!!! Let’s see how the state responds!
Get a visa or use your passport Johnny and get the hell out of Dodge!!!
Danny, I answered the age question here:
https://qifanabki.com/2010/08/24/on-hiatus/#comment-12699
And some more info in post #51 of that thread.
I certainly appreciate V’s frustration as well as that of most folks, whether they are still in the country of birth or have permanently emigrated. Despite that deep frustration most of us still have, close or remote, family and/or friends there who for various reasons have not left or don’t want to leave. Having been born and to various levels educated there, we carry in our identify a clear impression of that affiliation. To a good extent, many of us have gone through various stages of feelings about the home country, from it being the best place on earth all the way to it being the worst place on earth along with various characterization of the people there.
I obviously don’t have the answer for solving the myriad of problems in Lebanon (not sure anyone does!) but, emotionally, the nostalgia, appreciation of the good the country has done for us, our heritage, all combine to have all of us — at various stages in our outlook and certainly in the final one as we age — maintain a deep hope that by some magic things do evolve for the better for compatriots.
As I mentioned at various times, I think the very fact of engaging in blogs like this, even when the comments are negatives, indicate a level of caring about the country. Even the country haters are really frustrated country lovers since love and hate are two forms of the same passion. The opposite of love is not hate; it is indifference. Commenting here indicates engagement and not indifference.
Wishes for a sincere redemption to our Jewish friends on their Holy Day of Atonement.
AIG, Rani,
May I ask what the winds of rumors are whispering in your corner of the Middle East. Some folks from the country on your northern border are reporting rumors of soon-to-come military conflict. What seems to be the word in Israel, in the press as well as around the water cooler?
Dear Johnny
Yom Kipur, probably the most important day in Jewish religion, which this year was also in Saturday, is just over. We are not supposed to eat or write in that day. So I can write to you now. I thank you for referring to me.
I can not speak for Israel only for my self. On one side they just ended some stage of distributing gass masks. The boss of civil defence, Vilnai, is a serious person and there are serious preparation for war on civilians. However, generally people are occupied in making money. Economically the country is doing very well, too well, for example a real estate boom that may not end well. Export is high, the rate of Shekel is too high and if lowered could increase export. Employment is OK, Turism is OK.
As for Is. Leb. relationshps. Trouble is, people in both countries know little about the other. I think though that we know more about you and that the Israeli system does not demonise Lebanon or the Lebanese as much as your system does when referring to us. Except for the Hizb., now including the Labanese Army, which the Israeli population takes very very seriously and so does the IDF. You called it “fear mongering” I would call it being carefull and cautious, it is Iran and the Hizb. that are daily, every day, selling fear in Israel, not the Israeli Government. In Israel Iran=Hizb.=Lebanon, can any one blame only Israel for that?
But about the little that we know about each other. Just one example: Mr. Jumblat and Mr. Arselan went to Syria to meet some Durzi people from the Israeli occupied Gaulan. If they will hear the truth, these are the richest, most affluent, most educated, most mechnaized, most electrified, most any thing, farmers in the whole of Syria. OK occupation is evil & bad, but no road blocks, no police check ups, internet use as free as any Israeli in Tel Aviv. They can do business in any place in Israel and they do, they can attend any university in Israel and they do, etc. Not one was involved in any act of terror (spying for Syria, yes)not one was killed by an intended Israeli bullet or bomb since 1969. Still they are all or most, Syrian citizens. The situation in Rajar is exactly the same. True they are occupied, in any peace the land will be returned to Syria, but unlike the media , hell it is not.
As for the General picture, Israel and Lebanon seems to have reached a kind of MAD situation, Mutually assured destruction. Except that in the Lebanese case the finger on the trigger is Iranian, not even Syrian.
I and many Israelies think that if and when Iran will say so, and not in any other time, the trigger will be pressed. I and many Israelies think that Iran does not care if the whole of Lebanon will turn into a one large flat and empty parking lot. If need be, in the not so far future, perhaps radioactive parking lot. Wars are getting more and more destructive. Hizb. is talking about reaching every point in Israel, but then obviously Israel can reach any point in Lebanon. By reading what is written in Lebanon it seems that too many Lebanese people do not see that truth. So Lebanon has become cannon fodder for Iran, Israel have had nothing to do with it. As far as I am concerned, and probably many other Israelies, we have had very little to do with it. The Lebanese people opted for that situation by acting or by doing noting. It is now the problem of the Hizb. and FPM what will they do? Will they press the triggers when told by Iran, knowing well what will happen in the whole of Lebanon? especially now when the LAF and the Hizb. are one, as they say and act ! Are they Lebanese or Iranian? Why the people in Lebanon are not asking that question again and again. Why it is not painted on walls and roads? After all it is the life of all Lebanese that the Hizb. is playing with. If nothing will be done on the Lebanese side, let us start with just less talking, like back to the 1950-1970 situation or some thing like that, it is impossible to tell what will happen.