In a recent piece in the Jerusalem Post, Gary Gambill addresses the issue of how Hizbullah might be compelled to abandon its resistance, concluding that there is no such thing as a “disarm Hizbullah quick” scheme. None of the standard proposals (coercive pressure, aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces, removing the territorial and security-related pretexts for resistance, and alleviating Shiite political disenfranchisement) Gambill argues, will be successful in bringing about a major transformation in the party’s orientation or capabilities, at least in the short term.
With that said, however, he seems to suggest that taking the long-term view is not unfeasible, given the presence of a U.N. buffer between Hizbullah and the battlefield, as well as an understanding of the catastrophic costs of another confrontation. For a far more detailed look at what a robust long-term strategy might look like, read Nicholas Noe’s excellent white paper for the Century Foundation.
Finally, I’ve written something for Foreign Policy about the Lebanese elections and what we can expect from an opposition win. You can read it here.