The following commentary is by a well-informed reader of this blog who goes by the pseudonym “Charles”. He was one of the authors of the excellent Lebanese Political Journal blog (largely defunct since about 2007, but a must-read during the post-Hariri assassination years), and his intervention provides some much-needed context on the larger issues behind the telecoms showdown in Lebanon.
Reader Commentary by “Charles”
It appears that the basic problem is a lack of state accountability. Two oligarchic factions are standing off against one another.
The discussion to privatize Ogero goes back to the days of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri (and Finance Minister Fouad Siniora) who had the political and economic clout to privatize Ogero and make it his own. From 2003-4, the Syrians severely limited Hariri’s privatizations, which resulted in Moody’s downgrading Lebanon’s bond rating, as the government was not following its own debt restructuring program according to the guidelines set out in Paris II, which included promises to privatize the telecommunications network, the electrical grid, MEA, amongst other things.
Of course, the re-election of Lahoud and the removal of Hariri put everything else on hold, but Hariri’s men remained in their positions in the ministries waiting for their leader to return to power. Omar Karami’s (and Finance Minister Elias Saliba’s) failures alongside Syrian heavy handedness almost guaranteed Hariri’s return to power and a return to privatizations.
When M14 won the 2005 elections and then negotiated Paris III, the privatizations were supposed to continue, but did not because of opposition from Jumblatt, Berri, and Hezbollah, who humiliated Hariri and Siniora by rudely making their opposition to privatization known during the PM and Finance Minister’s meetings in New York and DC (something we saw them do once again to topple Hariri’s gov’t in 2011).
The telecoms privatization continued to fester under Marwan Hamade who, despite his affiliation with the March 14th coalition (M14), also had problems with Abdel Monem Youssef who was still waiting to become the director of the newly privatized Ogero and make his millions. The M14 appointed and affiliated director of the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) Kamal Shehadeh had major problems with both Hamade and Youssef.
The transfer of telecoms to Gebran Bassile was a remarkably intelligent move by Michel Aoun. Without a financial power base of his own, Aoun needed a source of wealth to finance his politics, and he went to the same sources of money that finance a huge portion of Lebanese government operating costs: (1) foreign backers; (2) and the government owned telecommunications networks that allow Lebanese to do what we do best: talk on cell phones.
Since then, both specific interests within the Future Movement (not the entire party, and definitely not all of M14) and specific interests within the FPM (not the entire party, and definitely not all of the March 8th coalition [M8]) have determined the debate over telecommunications. This debate went from being nasty under Gebran Bassile to being an all out war under Charbel Nahhas, under whose tenure the esteemed technocratic TRA head Shehadeh resigned in disgust (Shehadeh’s personality and political disposition is remarkably similar to Ziad Baroud).
Hariri/Siniora provide political backing and will reap the profit; Rifi provides enforcement; and Youssef holds the fort. Aoun/Bassile provide the political backing and will reap the profit; Nahhas, OTV, and the ISF Embassy division (this division swears allegiance to the FPM?) provides the enforcement; and Aoun holds the fort through tedious negotiations over cabinet formations.
In the mean time, Hezbollah established their own network, thus by-passing the squabbling over privatizations, making millions (if not billions) using its own telecommunications network, weakened the Lebanese government through depriving it of one of its greatest sources of revenue (receipts from telecommunications traffic), provided cheaper and better communications for its partisans and others, and defending its own interests with its weapons.
Sure, there is espionage stuff going on – which Future, the FPM, Hezbollah, Israel, etc. like to play up because once it is brought up Lebanese brains stop behaving rationally, but its really about who reaps the spoils from the biggest honey pot in the country.
The current squabble is over the privatization of Ogero and the possible creation of a third mobile network. Aoun and Bassile refused to play the Lebanese political game in which they would have made a deal with Hariri and received a cut (Lebanon’s system of creating consensus), and have been trying to take the candy away from Hariri/Youssef for years. Nahhas has been the most effective at dismantling the Hariri/Youssef network, which is why the relationship between the two factions has become so nasty. They don’t understand why Aoun isn’t playing by the corrupt rules of Lebanese politics with them, even though he does with almost every other faction.
Youssef hunkering down created a stalemate to be resolved in the future. Nahhas is trying to resolve the situation now, because…
Enter Najib Miqati, and the situation becomes an emergency for both FM and FPM, which is why they are behaving so badly at this precise moment. The Miqati billions were created through telecommunications. Taha Miqati was a small time construction contractor in Khaleej until he established his satellite communications up link, which created enough profit for the Miqati brothers to make their billions. Their business relationships with the Assad regime (and more specifically with Rami Makhlouf) involve telecommunications.
If Miqati gets the telecoms portfolio in the next government, Hariri will cut a deal and Youssef will get his pay out (and he’s been waiting a long, long time). Aoun and Bassile get screwed. However, Hariri has a much worse hand with which to negotiate if Youssef doesn’t have a full network and doesn’t have a large base of operations that he controls.
Miqati has the political might to privatize the telecoms networks, or at least upgrade them, but he will have to cut deals all around, including with HA, Berri, and Jumblatt. Hariri is in a much better position if Youssef is in a dominant position. Youssef can throw a wrench in the works of any future privatization deal.
Nahhas technically had the right to take his action with the equipment, but the FPM isn’t following the “no victor, no vanquished” consensus model of Lebanese politics. They made it personal, and Future is responding in a surprisingly immature manner given how much they have to lose in this.
Qifa Nabki 
Thank you Charles for the insightful and detailed outlay of the history and possible reasons for the “fracas”…In essence the mafia families (Hariri, Berri, Jumblat, Aoun, Hassan Nassrallah…) dictate and divvy up the spoils while the poor people suffer with the worst internet connection in the WORLD and still be happy that Gigi better their telecommunication network. A Utopian country. 😀
Posted by danny | May 29, 2011, 9:24 amVery interesting reading
Posted by Gabriel | May 29, 2011, 9:49 amQuestion to Charles:
With such abhorrent feudal behavior by the few who end up benefit to the detriment of the largest majority of Lebanese people, the State, and the prospects for true success of the Nation, is there any chance nowadays that a grassroots movement gets organized aimed at the rejection of such tutelage and migration to a truly democratic self-government?
I recognize this is not an easy question but surely folks like you and QN are able to take a stab at a credible analysis.
Thank You.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 10:52 amTypos corrections, for the record:
– first line: benefiting (in lieu of benefit)
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 10:53 amI think again, I appeal to GK`s wisdom on all matters economics.
Put aside the mechanics of this story. What are the sources of income of the state of Lebanon.
Maybe ideally, telecom shouldn`t be privatized if it can put that much money into the government coffers.
Posted by Gabriel | May 29, 2011, 11:10 amThat is too simplistic of an explanation albeit a nicely organized argument.
Let’s not forget that it was during Siniora’s cabinet that Basil was put in the telecom ministry. If this was so sensitive with so much personal financial rewards involved for the Future Movement (as you alluded) don’t you think they would have insisted on putting some one else there?
There is more to this latest fiasco than financial rewards.
As an aside, am I the only one bemused by the fact that Nahhas was decrying the fact that Rifi was not heeding his superior’s orders (Baroud) when in fact Nahhas stormed the building in question with members of the ISF Embassy protection staff who, theoretically, are under Rifi’s command.
Posted by MM | May 29, 2011, 12:26 pmGabriel,
The following are te most relevant figures .
Total Budget Expenditures 2011: $13.129 billion
Total Budgetary Revenue 2011: $10.041 billion
Over 10 % of the revenue is from the Surplus from the telecommunication ministry is budgeted to be $ 1.195 billion.
Let me say a few words to put this figure in perspective:
The figure of just over a $1 billion is very deceiving. It is the size of this figure that has prevented the privatization of the telecomm sector. Most in Lebanon, and not only the MP’s, view this figure as net profits. Far from it. A proper accounting would reveal that this is essentially a positive cash flow but this does not account properly for the depreciation and the huge sums that are required to keep up with the technological development.
It has been my view for a long period of time that this is the reason that Lahoud, HA, FPM… refused to privatize when they were offered , if my memory serves me correctly, much less than $5 billion. Some wanted as much as $10 billion. That is nutys. Look at the most recent large transaction in this field. AT&T has offered to buy T-Mobile ( the Deutch telecomm in the US ) for $30 billion. T mobile has a very modern network and 39 million subscribers. This means that every million subscriber is being sold for less than $1 billion . The only way to find what is the real market value of the Lebanese telecomm is to hold an international auction. If that is done I very much doubt that any commercial enterprise would offer more tha $2.5-#3 billion for this rather limited and technological obsolete network.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 29, 2011, 12:34 pmMM, OK, enlighten us with your theory?
The inconsistency you mention in Nahas’ claims is right on, but then again, this is Lebanon you’re talking about. Since when do logic and reason prevail?
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 1:22 pmHere is another very relevant set of fiures that would help demonstrate that the Lebanese in general have a very inflated view of what the telecommunication secor in Lebanon is worth.
Zain, the Kuwaiti based company that operates MTC touch for the Lebanese government is the largest such firm in the ME with a footprint in Sudan, saudi, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Lebanon. They have around 38 million subscribers and reported recently corporate net profits of $251 million. The market capitalization of this company is $15 billion and is probably on the rich side. Maybe this would put to rest the unrealistic dreams that the Lebanese mobile sector is worth $10 billion.
I also believe that MM is right in suggesting that the major motive behind the recent shenanigans is not as much financial as it is political ( Karam in custody, strengthen the case for keeping Nahas, embarrass Baroud, score PR points against March 14 and Suleiman, force the hand of Mikati…)
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 29, 2011, 1:43 pmMM said:
Basil was made Minister of Telecommunications during Saniora’s second cabinet, i.e. the lame duck one which only lasted a year (plus another few months in caretaker capacity). He was appointed as part of the negotiations following the Hizbullah takeover of Beirut in May 2008. His tenure came about through the Doha Accord, which was basically a slam dunk for March 8. So you can’t argue that he was installed with the Future Movement’s happy consent… he was appointed “ghasbin 3annon”, in the same way that his coalition was given a blocking third and the 1960 electoral law was adopted, none of which was supposed to benefit M14.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | May 29, 2011, 1:47 pmThis is a very good presentation of the history of the telecom industry in Lebanon. Thanks Charles.
However, the theory proposed to explain the recent saga has a big hole in it.
Charles contends that the fight behind the saga involves the issue of privatization of the industry which has been going on for almost a decade. There was nothing hidden in that regard. The game was played in the full open between Seniora, Hariri, Berri, Jumblat and others as Charles accurately stated.
Charles further points out that privatization schemes failed because of opposition by certain parties (Jumblatt, Berri, FPM). He also asserts that individual or special group’s profiteering is the sole motif behind such squabbles which are continuing till now. I wouldn’t dispute the motif, but I would say it does not fully explain what happened.
The big hole in his theory is his assertion that Miqati has the political might to privatize the industry where others failed to do so. He also asserts that Miqati will have to achieve his goal by striking deals with the same parties which opposed privatization in the first place in addition to FM which will be out of a new cabinet if it gets formed.
“If Miqata gets the telecoms portfolio in the next government, Hariri will cut a deal and Yourself will get his pay out (and he’s been waiting a long, long time). Amount and Basil get screwed. However, Hariri has a much worse hand with which to negotiate if yourself doesn’t have a full network and doesn’t have a large base of operations that he controls.”
”Miqata has the political might to privatize the telecoms networks, or at least upgrade them, but he will have to cut deals all around, including with HA, Berry, and Jumbled. Hariri is in a much better position if you are in a dominant position. You can throw a wrench in the works of any future privatization deal.”
Assuming a new cabinet is formed, the decision to privatize telecom will have to be made in the cabinet. Does Charles perceive a possible cabinet in which Miqati can succeed in passing a decision to achieve such goal? I personally fail to see it. Miqati’s political might can best be made use of during the cabinet formation process as he is doing right now, knowing full well that he represents the only choice for those who nominated him. The most he can achieve during that phase is to insist on certain portfolios and form a government according to the constitution as he continued to claim he was/is doing until he turned off his ‘engines of consultations’ last week just before Nahhas barged into the Adliyeh building.
Posted by iceman | May 29, 2011, 2:16 pmAs ye rape, so shall ye reap…
Someday when the country is pushed off the top of the heap!
No, a Mai Lai is not some kind of martini cocktail with fizzy gin and little umbrella…
My fellow countrymen and women, I think you’ve had enough,
You are drooling something orange around your mouth.
You should be more suspicious when you are being spoon-fed,
At this rate, you will wind up raped and left for dead…
We must be in Damascus just in time for the gold rush,
Much of the real news goes untold…
The running dogs distract us with chants of Mush! Mush! Mush!
Look at those corporate media pups pulling that sled!
The virgin white snow covers the tracks,
where dogs shot from helicopters limped and bled….,
courtesy of the Infamous white House Murder INC, !!!
🙂
Posted by HK | May 29, 2011, 2:21 pmWhat’s with the weird typos, iceman, deliberate?
The cutest one is the use of “motif” for “motive.”
If intentional, it’s really cute.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 3:43 pmSo… if NOT intentional, would you kindly repost after correction. I like to read your posts but the typos this time are causing too much kibitzing on the message.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 3:44 pmHK, ya HK, hmm, what can I say? I comprehendeth not what thou expoundeth and explicateth.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 3:45 pm@QN #10
The circumstances you mentioned are true but Harriri went along the second time and installed Nahas, and the FPM, in the same position after M14 won the elections. Harriri was well capable of throwing the same hissy fit as Miqati is doing now when forming his cabinet. I grant you that Harriri is not nearly is sophisticated as Miqati but in this case this counts for him as he did not feel there was something so so valuable to protect.
HP #8,
I don’t have a theory and I am just as bewildered as the next guy or gal. But as I said before on this blog, M8 (FPM and HA) are about 100 times more sophisticated when it comes to PR, Media, and effectively communicating with the Lebanese. I think I even called on Harriri to fire all his media lieutenants because they are woeful idiots albeit loyal ones. So this may be part of the answer as Ghassan had suggested. Nahas did show up with OTV to the building.
Posted by MM | May 29, 2011, 3:46 pmHK, can you repost a translation of what you tried to say in language comprehensible to us modest folk lacking the political and secret service intellectual quotients of those in the know?
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 3:47 pmI hate to divert people away from this thread, but there’s a great must-read essay at Syria Comment.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | May 29, 2011, 3:50 pmIt’s nice rundown but I have two problems with Charles’s argument:
First, getting the Telecom ministry doesn’t mean you get its revenue. Aoun may have needed a source of wealth, but putting his man as telecom minister didn’t magically give him a revenue stream.
He would have made money if he privatized Ogero and gave it to his man, not try to dismantle it.
Second, it is immaterial if Youssef has a third mobile network up and running. He who controls the cabinet, controls the privatization. Miqati would not have to negotiate with Hariri at all. And he certainly wouldn’t cater to Youssef who is just a state employee and can be fired by cabinet.
This isn’t about the upcoming cabinet. It’s about a battle for control: Who controls activating the international internet broadband cables? Who controls providing ISPs with E1 bandwidth? Who controls the expenditures of Ogero? Who controls the equipment given by the Chinese?
If this long running battle between Ogero and the ministry has escalated recently it probably has more to do with the lack of a government rather than the anticipation of a new one.
Posted by RedLeb | May 29, 2011, 3:59 pmQN re#18
I guess what we have been talking about regarding the strategy of assad regime is bearing fruits…Turning people inwards to be sectarian. Just like Lebanese who cling back to their warlords and sectarian zaims when trouble breaks out.
In the end that had been the drive from Bashar so that they can explain away their atrocities and rationale that MB will take over and they are the only protection against civil war and bloodshed among sects in Syria.
Posted by danny | May 29, 2011, 4:46 pmThis is a nice story, and i agree with most elements, but i think some things didnt make sense or are oversimplified.
1- You say
“The transfer of telecoms to Gebran Bassile was a remarkably intelligent move by Michel Aoun. Without a financial power base of his own, Aoun needed a source of wealth to finance his politics, and he went to the same sources of money that finance a huge portion of Lebanese government operating costs: (1) foreign backers; (2) and the government owned telecommunications networks that allow Lebanese to do what we do best: talk on cell phones”.
How was that done? I mean how did MoT revenues piled up on Aoun’s desk? or bank account for that matter?
2-The embassy section of ISF is called
جهاز أمن السفارات والإدارات والمؤسسات العامة
meaning it’s part of its duty to be with Nahas, and it is responsible for public administrations in addition to diplomatic missions, not ISF Info Branch. Everyone is (intentionally?) making same mistake all over the media.
3-Then you claim “under whose tenure the esteemed technocratic TRA head Shehadeh resigned in disgust (Shehadeh’s personality and political disposition is remarkably similar to Ziad Baroud)”. First time I hear such thing. Basically he headed the TRA to do the job; i.e. privatize. When he saw this is not gonna happen, and with the intensification of debate, and Nahas hold, he just walked away.
4- How is Hizbollah making profits? It’s true there are revenues unrealized by the government b/c of its network, but they are not making commercial business from this? I havent seen anyone in Dahye having Hizbollah Network phone… “Hezbollah established their own network, thus by-passing the squabbling over privatizations, making millions (if not billions) ”
4- When 12 of HAriri’s 16 billion dollars are made out of telecoms… then Nahas is all right in fearing and rejecting any calls for privatization. Anyways there’s an element missed here: the financial crisis gave similarly a “forget-about-it-for-now” understanding for all factions since late 2008. They know they wont be able to get the 3 to 7 billions Azour was hoping for during Paris 3 talks.
6- From policy point of view, what’s the perspective of Nahas? Basically why selling if the state can upgrade, and mayyyybe sell later at a higher price? For one you make the sector more valuable, and more importantly you will tell Lebanese people that your government can provide reliable and state-of-the-art service. Hariri &Co simply ignored the sector for 15 years which got it to its point of current degradation, because simply they wanted to sell it for cheap, to themselves, so that they can reap the benefits with some tens of millions of dollars investment in infrastructure. Dont forget Hariri and Nahas are from opposing economic schools. The first is neoliberal and the second is socialist/leftist. All the Mustaqbal media war (and MP Ghazi Youssef) on Nahas all last year b/c simply Nahas opted to upgrade the sector: they cant believe that he went ahead and commissioned the G3, as well as the fiber optics!!
anyways i love this political economy, and please keep such things coming in..
Posted by Alain | May 29, 2011, 4:59 pmTwo important issues we haven’t discussed:
1) The Estonians
2) The attack on Unifil
Imagine that the 7 Estonians would have been 7 Americans or 7 Russians or 7 Germans.
Posted by AIG | May 29, 2011, 5:37 pm“Charles” has a lot of imagination, makes up a good story with lots of corruption, but no sex and too many cliches. I don’t think this will sell.
Posted by Nadim Shehadi | May 29, 2011, 5:42 pm#23 NS, you are too severe. I understand better this soap opera thanks to the historical background brought up by Charles.
However, I do wonder as it has been asked in a comment above… by which magical mecanism the telco millions can fill Aoun’s pockets? Same thing for the m-billions (!) earned by the Hizb ??
Posted by 3issa | May 29, 2011, 6:48 pmGK #7
You’re a goldmine of knowledge. Many thanks.
Posted by Gabriel | May 29, 2011, 8:37 pm#23, Nadim, what is YOUR theory? just criticize others’ ?
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 8:52 pmQN, the latest Syriacomment makes for rather tedious reading. Is there an abridged distillation somewhere? Some of us left-brained folks tire easily of verbose narratives. Thanks.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 8:57 pmHP.
The article doesn’t provide much in fresh perspectives. It regurgitates the typical stereotypes provided to date. Alawis tenaciously holding on to regime. Christians worried about their future. Sunnis anti-regime. With a sprinkle of an athiest Shia to assure us there is nothing radical about the protests.
Its well written and well delivered. But there’s not much new to learn from reading it.
Posted by Gabriel | May 29, 2011, 9:10 pmThanks, Gabe! You’re hired!
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 9:14 pmHP & Gaby,
I did read the whole thing on SC. It was rather long but very instructive and sad at the same time. Brought back sad memories of how things evolved in Lebanon back in ’75, how people changed quickly, and how rationality and compassion became victims on a grand scale.
Posted by Ras Beirut | May 29, 2011, 10:06 pmGK posted this before and it was indeed quite moving and perhaps appropriate for a pause at this time. The link is below. The delivery part is from 3:04 to 13:15 so you can skip before and after if you like.
Before putting the link, a general comment.
I heard PM Netanyahu’s speech before the joint session of Congress at the beginning of the week that just ended. What remarkable command of the language, body language, and messaging. Unless and until there are spokespersons in the Arab world capable of matching and exceeding this kind of “interface,” along, of course with the genuine messaging and positioning against the bad parts and elements in the extremist groups, then alas, the saga of Arab defeat will continue. It’s really THAT simple!
There were earlier comments, maybe in previous posts, that in Lebanon in particular, the past yearning by some to reject an Arab identity and espouse a European satellite positioning was superseded by events and attitude. Maybe so, but as long as extremist groups and religious fanaticism that some claim must be part of the nation-state are rejected categorically, such yearning is not only present, but fully validated as an antidote to such extremism.
Sure, the romantic idealization of Arabism and its honor and glory as depicted in the video below is quite inspiring and attractive, but as long as the reality betrays the innate fanaticism of the few that spoils it for the many, it will remain a dream, unattainable. Let’s hope for the best, and in the meantime, as GK advised us when he first posted this video, just enjoy it without any political or reality context.
Again, the kernel of this is 3:04 to 13:15
Enjoy
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 11:00 pmHere’s an example of the kind of discourse and competence direly lacking from the Arab side: they are few and far in-between. More is needed.
http://inthearena.blogs.cnn.com/category/hanan-ashrawi/
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 11:08 pmOne last link. The smartest political analyst in the world: Fareed Zakaria
http://inthearena.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/26/zakaria-history-will-pass-netanyahu-by/
All hardliners will become commas in history, not just Netanyahu. Ditto for those who dismiss the legitimate National aspirations of the Palestinian people.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 29, 2011, 11:14 pmHP @ 31, there is a better solution than the one proposed. Kick the US completely out of the Arab World.
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 12:13 am#34
The US ain’t the problem. Try self reflection.
Posted by maverick | May 30, 2011, 2:27 amQN#18, I fully agree. The account gives a compassionate AND holistic view of a very complex situation. That is not easy to achieve in less than, lets say, 200 pages. So you guys complaining about the text being too long…come on,I know we are exiting the Gutenberg Galaxy, but I’m pretty sure that, even deep into the 21st century, SOME people will have to be able to read more than 200 lines in one go…
As for the account lacking novelty, alas, when the bottom of the story is human nature at play in war, the only innovation you can add is in the form, since, apparently, the substance of that old story has not changed much, Gutenberg and Internet Galaxies not withstanding, in the past thousands of years.
Posted by mj | May 30, 2011, 3:28 amwhat that tale at the SC is supposed to mean?
The protests should stop because of fear of sectarism or that the protests are not the problem since 40 years of dictatorship didn`t eliminate it and democracy is a better way to deal with it?
Alas Syria regim is very good in sectarism just check Lebanon and Iraq.
Posted by Alberto | May 30, 2011, 4:16 amI have a question for RedLeb (and Charles, if he ever returns):
Why are there so many different telecom organs? Why do we need a ministry, plus Ogero, plus the TRA? And why is Ogero being transformed into “Liban Telecom”?
Posted by Qifa Nabki | May 30, 2011, 6:51 am…اشرف الشرفاء هو الوزير شربل نحاس
Posted by HK | May 30, 2011, 7:08 amIt is clear that the trgicomedy of the Telecom debacle will continue occupying main stage for a while.
Gen Rifi has obviously failed to carry an order by a superior, and if some of the press reports are accurate he even refused to obey an order , issued by the President of the republic, to evacuate the infamous second floor. That much is known to be true but Gen Rifi does not appear to be very worried about this because of extenuating circumstances. He seems to be hinting indirectly at principle IV of Nuremburg:
“”The fact that a person acted pursuant to order of his Government or of a superior does not relieve him from responsibility under international law, provided a moral choice was in fact possible to him.”
I am not a lawyer and so I raise the question of whether Nuremburg principles are applicable since Gen Rifi can be considered to be a military officer?
The other protagonist, minister Nahas, appears not to have broken the laws in this case but his motives are very much suspect. Its all about the timing. Did he approve the vacation of Yousef in order to get him out of the way? He does not seem to have a reason for dismantling the equipment besides the fact that he could. If he and others have known about this equipment for years and if the equipment is allegedly misused , which he cannot prove, then could he have used a less confrontational procedure? What was the urgency of conducting an “I gotcha” operation?
In the final analysis such a string of events would not take place except in an environment that is rife with corruption, mistrust and petty attempts to set up and protect fiefdoms. These theatrics would not take place except in a Tower of Babel cabinet. This debacle might still serve a useful purpose if it would lead to restoration of the traditional one colour cabinets.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 30, 2011, 7:24 am#35 and HP,
A must read for the doubters,
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/who-cares-in-the-middle-east-what-obama-says-2290761.html
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 7:32 amThe Ministry is the umbrella organization while OGERO is a relic of Radio Orient ( The young do not remember Radio Orient :-))
Home About History
O.G.E.R.O (Organisme de Gestion et d’Exploitation de l’ex-société Radio-Orient) was created to run the installation of the previously established Franco-Lebanese Radio-Orient company.
Here are the major dates in O.G.E.R.O’s evolution to it’s status today as a Telecom Operator.
December 28th, 1972
O.G.E.R.O was founded according to the law number 21/72
January 15th, 1975
By decree number 9519 the organization was asked to administer and run the existing computer on behalf of the Maintenance and Exploitation Directorate at the Ministry of Telecommunications (MoT*)
Ministry of Telecommunications, formerly known as Ministry of Post and Telecommunications (MPT) .
September 5th, 1994
By decree number 5613 the duties of maintenance for the MoT preexisting facilities were handed over to O.G.E.R.O in the frame of a five-year plan aiming to the installation of one million new phone lines to be followed again by another million in a second phase.
As for the TRA it is supposed to act as the regulator, such as the FCC.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 30, 2011, 7:32 amAbstracting from the politics for a moment, Lebanon’s IT sector is in a regulatory time-warp which has deprived the country of grasping a huge potential opportunity to expand the services industry and generate new stream of direct and indirect tax revenue for the government. Most countries (even Syria finally before the latest events)adopted the system of empowering the regulator to issue licences years ago. In Lebanon the process stalled in the Lahoud era. What you have now is an overpriced and underinvested sector delivering a slice of revenue to the telecoms ministry, which is refusing to hand over any of these funds to the finance ministry.
You also have the oddity of the ITU putting Lebanese mobile-phone penetration at under 50% (behind Syria and Sudan) and with the sector showing the lowest compound annual growth rate in the Middle East between 2004 and 2009 (ITU presumably doesn’t include Hizballah’s network).
Posted by EIU | May 30, 2011, 8:02 amCan someone dig up a good backgrounder for us on this topic? Surely The Executive magazine has written something about telecoms in the past couple months?
Thanks EIU. If you had to advise a hypothetical Miqati govt about how to reform this sector, what would you suggest?
Posted by Qifa Nabki | May 30, 2011, 8:23 amEIU,
It is true that Lebanon has a relatively low penetration by mobile phones but things are not as bad as you suggest.
The most recent figures show a penetration ratio of 64.4% for Lebanon and Syria is under 50%.
The IYU figures for 2009 ( they have not published the 2010 yet) are the following:
Lebanon…2,400,000
Syria…..9,900,000
But as you well know Syria has a population that is more than 5 times larger than that of Lebanon. The status of the technology in Lebanon is shameful but when we want to use statistics it is important to use the correct figures.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 30, 2011, 8:30 amHere’s where Lebanon ranks in Broadband speed/downloads…DEAD LAST in the world. Why talk about an IT sector that is from the dark ages lol…
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=247656
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 8:35 amGreat Post,
Recent spanish elections showed that voters are not afraid by corruption and keep voting and following their leaders even if corrupted. Lebanese politics follow the same scheme, and money is an abstract element. When will we react ?
Posted by oum | May 30, 2011, 8:36 amPoint taken, Ghassan. I was referring to the figures for 2008 (which had Lebanese penetration at 34%). The 2009 figures are better (56.6%), but still near the bottom of the regional rankings.
QN — I guess Miqati could appoint Kamal Shehadeh as minister, but I doubt that he would be able to do much. The lack of progress over the last decade and more means that there is a huge amount of ground to make up.
Posted by EIU | May 30, 2011, 9:08 amPS. The discrepancy in the ITU figures arises from the fact that they used their own estimate for 2008 but sourced the 2009 statistics to the Ministry of Telecommunications.
Posted by EIU | May 30, 2011, 9:12 amAlain and Issa,
I work wiht one of the operators so I can techincally tell you how having a private network can make million/billion even if no person in dahyeh has a “Hizbollah Network phone”.
For more info you can Google search for the following telecom terms: telecom + Grey routes / Arbitrage / Re-origination / Leaky PBX
Here is one example: You build a network, with switching equipment and get international links to outside Lebanon.
You make agreements with operators outside of Lebanon to route traffic calls to Lebanon through your network instead of the official networks. (Either by wasta in corrupt countries or by offering prices a bit lower than the official operators give since you won’t have to pay taxes)
You buy many local lines (land lines and mobile) with a clir subscription (don’t show caller’s number).
When someone wants to make an international call to Lebanon, the call gets routed through your switches so YOU get paid a high international switching tariff, then you make a local call from your local lines and connect both calls, thus paying a small local fee on each international call you route.
That why for a few years most of international calls reaching us would display “number withheld” even if you had caller id.
For bonus points, at the end of the month you don’t even pay your bill to the Landline or mobile operator either because you have wasta or because you keep canceling old unpaid cards and getting new ones.
Posted by telecom | May 30, 2011, 9:43 amQN,
We are in a state of transition from our current setup of Ministry + Ogero, into the new privatized sector of Ministry + Liban Telecom + TRA.
Law 431, issued in 2002, decreed that two entities will be created: the Telecommunication Regulatory Authority and Liban Telecom.
Regulation of internet services will shift from the Ministry to TRA. The TRA will set standards and issue licenses (and will in fact be funded through license fees).
The cabinet will retain its exclusive right to issue phone and mobile licenses.
Liban Telecom is to be a shareholding company, with all stock initially owned by the state.
All the telecom networks now owned by the state will shift to Liban Telecom. This includes the phone networks and Ogero DSL service. The two mobile companies stay with the state, but Liban Telecom is a licensed mobile operator.
I think the international phone and internet interconnects go to Liban Telecom, but I’m not sure.
Ogero is dissolved one year after Liban Telecom goes live. Liban Telecom has exclusive monopoly over phone and international internet interconnect for five years, at most.
Employees in the Ministry and Ogero are transferred to the TRA or Liban Telecom as necessary (if the employee does not concur, they can resign with full benefits).
Liban Telecom is to be privatized within two years of its formation by selling at most 40% of its shares to a private investor. The rest of the shares may be sold in due course via cabinet decrees.
Posted by RedLeb | May 30, 2011, 10:23 amtelecom;
WOW!!! I guess that’s the answer to the “resistance clan’s” queries and doubts . 😀
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 10:51 am#50 telecom
I think you just illuminated one (I am sure of many) uses for the “Resistance Telecom Network” RTN for short.
Guess which group of our brethren are very active in the discount long distance calling industry in Latin America, USA, and Canada?
Knowing that the clean dollar bill tap out of Iran might run dry at some point then there is no better alternative than being self sufficient financially. However, until HA starts manufacturing its own weapons then there is no alternative than the brotherly regime in Syria…and human rights be damned to those pesky Sunnis according to SHN.
Posted by MM | May 30, 2011, 10:56 amIs this the “Wezarat Al Barq Wal Bareed” everyone is talking about?
Ministry of Lightning!! 🙂
Posted by V | May 30, 2011, 11:10 am3issa meet the magician telecom. 😀
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 11:14 amIceman #41
Fisk’s article is interesting and well written. Two points:
– He condemns Saudi Arabia. Do you agree?
– He is a critic. He offers criticism but no solution. Criticism is easy. Solutions are not. Obama, in my opinion, is doing the very best anyone could with the cards he has to play with. Want to change the cards? See my posts 31, 32, 33: Arabs must take responsibility and provide the narrative and “interface” to claim the rights they say are theirs. So far, collectively, they get a Zero (to be generous) as a grade. Sure, there are few exceptions, like Hanan Ashrawi, but as I said, these are few and far between.
Here’s an idea, you, Iceman, could be such a voice. But you need to address a wider audience and progress from criticism to crisp solutions to be offered and a fact-based persuasive use of history, not to mention a definition of a way forward respecting all people and all religions. The floor is yours if so you chose. You certainly have the intellect and the abilities.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 11:20 amMM #53,
Hezballah don’t need Syria to transport weapons into Lebanon. They own the Port and the Airport.
Posted by R2D2 | May 30, 2011, 12:10 pmMJ#36
Don’t misunderstand. I loved the account, and I think it’s a must-read.
Posted by Gabriel | May 30, 2011, 12:14 pm@36, mj,
I don’t mind reading long narratives when they capture attention, but is it just me or was that narrative a little tedious to follow, particularly for folks who are somewhat interested but not deep into every detail and thought?
Anyway, I plead guilty for the one who raised the length issue on that SC post. I guess I should have taken that course in speed reading, and I guess it’s never too late.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 12:30 pmOK, I think I know what my problem was and is: there is no thesis at the beginning of the text, no conclusion, but just plain data thrown at the reader. We are not all experts and deep into collecting and analyzing such data. So…, hence… my request for someone to provide a distillation. I think that was a legitimate request and many have obliged. Maybe you could too, mj?
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 12:32 pmlol that is an answer ! very smart mecanism indeed
Posted by 3issa | May 30, 2011, 12:45 pmHP,
Please do not take speed reading and if you do keep it to yourself:-)
I am old enough to remember the weekly columns of Norman Mailer in The Village Voice.
Each of them started by pleading with the readers to pay him the courtesy of skipping the column if they intended to speed read.
Posted by ghassan karam | May 30, 2011, 1:04 pmHP, #59,60
I was trying to point out the fact that the necessary linearity (I’m maybe inventing the word)of a printed text makes it difficult to describe a complex situation in a few sentences. The “Syria in Fragments: Divided Minds, Divided Lives,” by an American in Syria” account at SC is not a Thesis/Antithesis/Synthesis thing. I took it more as a snapshot of a moment in that society, where you can look at different parts of the picture with no necessary internal order between the paragraphs. (I would have, though, change the order in some words in the title: I’d have said: “different lives, different minds”, in that order.
I didn’t go back to the entire text. I just kept my first feeling of empathy
while I was reading the text this morning, holding my breath. I felt that anybody having lived trough the sheer hatred inspired by fear would read the text easily.
Short of the distillation you asked, I hope this enlightens you somehow on my remarks.
Posted by mj | May 30, 2011, 1:44 pm# 50,
I wish and hope that what you are saying is true. I want Hezbollah to be doing that and more in order to finance their Resistance and Defense of Lebanon. Hezbollah deserves that money more than the crooked and utterly corrupt Lebanese state. I hope that Hezbollah is that creative but I have my doubts about this expose… Hezbollah’s Fiber-optic network is strictly used in the Resistance/defense and organizational stratagem. Period 🙂
Posted by HK | May 30, 2011, 1:59 pmHP,
You are supposed to be an avid reader of SC… so why the issue now? It is a story about a man/woman who is giving you changing attitudes under fear and duress…People are scared into survival mode and are clutching to “their own kind” a la Lebanese style. Primitive and crude.
BTW I suggest you copy and paste into word and make the fonts larger and read it… 😀
HK, Isn’t “resistance” getting enough $$$$ from the drug trade?
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 2:08 pmSome commenters at SC already noticed that the main post is a piece of fiction and may not be an accurate representation of reality. Some even suggested the name of the author who may have written it in collaboration with Joshua of course. So we have to go back and question Joshua’s motives.
I read the long post and tend to agree with those commenters.
HP,
The solution is as mention in 34 regardless of who is condemning who.
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 2:53 pmOpening the Resistance’ Network to outsiders in a NO, NO! It will be anathema to inviting the enemy home…
These things should not be a surprise to believers, the Godless will get more wicked and the righteous more Holy. God’s wrath will be pored out on all who transgress and salvation will come to those who fear Him, and Hezbollah will be ever present & victorious. 🙂
Posted by HK | May 30, 2011, 3:05 pmIce. Even if it sounds fictional isn’t this the aim of Bashar and what he wants the world to believe…that he is the only saviour(ask Alex)
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 3:13 pmtelecom,
The problem with your business plan is that it really relies on an international line and not a local network. Since you’re hoping unto the local (state-owned) phone and mobile network anyway, why build your own local loop. Just connect your international line straight into the state network and you’re done. There would be no need to stretch a costly fiber-optic line from Dahyieh to Nabatieh.
In fact, why go through the hassle of laying down an undersea cable? Renting one of those ships that unwind sea cables is quite traceable. Plus the hassle of setting up a Hizb branch in the other country to protect and secure the foreign interconnect, only to have the Israelis cut your under-sea line in a nano-second as their submarines would discover it immediately.
Much easier to just use the state internet network to to route Voice-Over-IP international phone calls in an internationally legal (but locally illegal) manner. Of course, that made sense a decade ago, but now with Skype, Google Chat, Apple FaceTime and a dozen other (free) international calling services, your business model has been made obsolete.
It’s been obvious to every military analyst that reviewed the 2006 war that Hizballah’s fiber optic network was essential in maintaining command and control throughout the fight. You do not link up such an vital asset to the international phone network where it can be open to hacking, interference, or eavesdropping to make a quick buck.
Posted by RedLeb | May 30, 2011, 3:14 pm#68
Then what you said could be Joshua’s motive or spin on the events – typical Baathist bull.
Sorry for brevity I am posting from mobile.
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 3:23 pmWho still makes international calls on mobile phones ?
Isn’t Skype all the hype ?! 🙂
Posted by R2D2 | May 30, 2011, 4:01 pmdanny, I’m glad that you see me belonging to those fearless and righteous gladiators always up to protect the homeland.
I consider it as a recognition.
Posted by 3issa | May 30, 2011, 5:11 pmRedLeb, HK, MM and others,
I am not arguing if Hizballah was doing it or not or if they deserve the money or not or if they dare connect their networks to international links or not. Those who love Hezbollah will say “they did it”, those who hate them will say “no way”, I know better about online conversations than to argue either way. My mistake was quoting the original question that mentioned Hizbollah and dahyeh.
I was just trying to explain to those who asked how you could make millions in Lebanon if you own a private telecom network / equipment without needing to sell lines to subscribers, because it is not obvious how to technically do that.
I can assure you I did not come up with the business plan, wish I was so clever 🙂 “someone” was doing it, i.e. international traffic was being routed outside of our international lines into local lines into our network for years.
I also know that naive engineers were investigating the issue technically and they were told by people higher up the chain to drop it.
Any more info I would give on the issue would be things “I heard” and “people were saying” and would just needlessly add heat to the debate without adding any substantial info so I totally did not mention it 🙂
Posted by telecom | May 30, 2011, 5:40 pmR2D2,
I am certain you are aware of what I posted above @46…If you don’t have decent Broadband (ooops…I meant if your internet is worse than Sudan or Afghanistan)…Skype will not be the hype dude! 😀
Posted by danny | May 30, 2011, 5:46 pmThanks, mj, GK, Iceman. I appreciate your attention and feedback.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 5:59 pmIceman, your proposed solution leaves gaps. For example, without US intervention, Saddam Hussein would have occupied Kuwait and made it into an Iraqi province, and from that vantage point threatened Saudi Arabia. Do you approve of that?
Or, like Osama Bin Laden claimed, do you think that he, Osama, would have provided the Saudis with the right deterrent?
You also have not addressed my question on whether you concur with Fisk in his condemnation of the Saudi regime.
I’m not seeking to give you a hard time but just to clarify where the consistency is in your arguments and if indeed you have a way to reconcile those arguments with the questions I pose.
and thanks in advance.
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 30, 2011, 6:01 pmstrange indeed, when resistance armies or home front protectors use more aggression and brutality towards their own in crushing dissent than they use against their arch enemies.
Cannot you see through the broboganda?
Posted by maverick | May 30, 2011, 6:12 pmTelecom #73,
I have no doubt that you are technologically more savvy about this issue than I am but isn’t the reason for the scheme that you describe due to the greed of the Lebanese authorities. The only reason that I can think of for others not to send their traffic through the official channels is the excessive rates that are being charged.
I am not a believer that the martket is always right but this is one instance where it is clear that had the government just provided adequate regulations then Skype, VOIP, low international , broadband, and G4 would have been established by the market. Even from a social equity point of view government monopoly in this case is actually an effort to balance the budget at the back of the poor by overcharging them and by providing inefficient and mediocre service.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 30, 2011, 6:49 pmHP 76,
The points that you raise are no longer relevant. There is no need for the Saudis to delay the inevitable. They already recognized over a decade ago that their relationship with the US has become a liability on them and began taking measures to dowgrade it. But they now, in light of recent revelations, should proceed in that direction more aggressively. Saudi Arabia does not need protection from any one.
The same should be pursued by other countries in particular those that were recently ‘liberated’.
Condemning or not condemning is also irrelevant to the topic.
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 9:35 pmHazem Saghieh has a very good article about Syria,
http://www.alarabiya.net/views/2011/05/31/151191.html
Posted by iceman | May 30, 2011, 9:39 pmtelecom.
Thank you
for this:
….”Re-origination / Leaky PBX”…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_telecommunications_routes
and this:
“I also know that naive engineers were investigating the issue technically and they were told by people higher up the chain to drop it.”
Nahhas would no doubt like to chat with the curious naifs referenced above..
Did Ogero, perchance, provide the STL “investigation” with telecom data?
Posted by lally | May 30, 2011, 10:00 pmLally… Wow..
You really are quite desperate to find some evidence that the STL is compromised.
Posted by Gabriel | May 30, 2011, 10:21 pmHP…
If you don’t mind me asking…
When you ask questions as you do in #56, do you ask them out of real curiosity?
And don’t you already know the answers to those questions? Are you holding out hope that the obvious answers are somehow untrue?
Posted by Gabriel | May 30, 2011, 11:59 pmCouldn’t help yourself could you Gabez? lol
Posted by maverick | May 31, 2011, 12:12 amLoL
Tab ya 3ame, I held out long enough, didn’t I :). Can’t I say that I’m improving little by little.
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 12:23 amGaby.
Au contraire, los desperados are those still proclaiming the virginal & unsullied nature of the STL despite the stinking piles of evidence to the contrary…
Posted by lally | May 31, 2011, 12:40 amHP,
Are you still waiting…? 😀
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 7:25 amUnder HK’s Radar
HK,
I’m not sure when “Murder Inc.” last met with the “thug” Assad Jr., but it looks like Assad’s pal Nasrallah met with him a few days ago:
http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/7216-report-nasrallah-has-held-several-meetings-with-assad-over-reforms
Who do you think is closer to the Syrian thug now, Nasrallah or “Murder Inc.”?
Posted by Akbar Palace | May 31, 2011, 7:44 amSorry, I have been busy and unable to post for a bit, but I notice that you are not speaking hebrew in Beirut. A “thank you” to The Resistance is therefore in order.
Posted by dontgetit | May 31, 2011, 9:00 amThe real “Ustaz” has finally defined himself and the resulting image is not flattering at all. The self described world class parliamentarian and the speaker of the Lebanese chamber of deputies who has spared no effort to keep the doors of the Lebanese legislature closed speaks of the movement that ended a 30 year collective nightmare as a movement that took the country backward 60 years.
The speaker has shown again how duplicitous, irresponsible,inept and divisive he is. He clearly does not desreve the office that he holds , an office that is expected to help guard sovereignty and personal freedom. Instead the speaker supports authoritarianism, dictatorship, totalitarian regimes.
Isn’t it about time that enough MP’s take measures to strip the speaker of the office that he has denigrated and that he clearly cannot fulfill its mission. I believe that article 44 section 3 of the Lebanese constitution provides a mechanism for that. Berri must go.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | May 31, 2011, 12:06 pmGK,
Nabih Berri is a duplicitous son of bitch. He has been like that all his political life. He instantly kneels to pressure, wherever it comes from… He certainly is not a “principled” man! That’s his legacy 🙂
Posted by HK | May 31, 2011, 12:52 pmLally,
I am sure that if there is something of a technical nature regarding leaky PBXs and re-origination, and other technical mumbo-jumbo… Nahas would have been all over it 7-8 months ago.
But he wasn’t, so I think it’s safe to say that there is likely no relation between leaky PBXs and STL, and hence no reason to thank telecom for the inside info.
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 1:11 pmAn interesting read on the current government formation deadlock.
I have to say, I fully agree with the author that M14 would be committing suicide if it once again comes to the rescue of M8 and provides it some kind of cover.
http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=276414
(PS: QN, remember my opinion on the matter last week, where I strongly disagreed with your assessment of the cabinet issue).
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 1:38 pmBV,
QN has been wrong before. 😀
GK
Yes Berri did say that. But I loved the quip of Samir Geagea:”Cedar Revolution Set Berri, his Allies Back 60 Years”…
What really do you expect from a Master thief and a total whore. Him & his brother in arms Nassrallah have a different compass than you. They are divine…
HK now you should follow a real statesman like DSG and you might be enlightened from the fog of the Gunja…
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 1:53 pmHazem al-Amin is clear from the beginning of his article that it is based on rumours. His reasoning for not accepting any such offer is wrong, however.
First, there is no such constant as having a slight majority ALWAYS forming a government. Very often national unity governmsnts are formed for reasons and they do produce results.
Secondly you do not reject an offer just to make your foe lose, especially if it is framed in such narrative as the need to form a national salvation government.
If such an offer materializes a counter-offer should be made which would not entail a political suicide on the part of March 14. They shoud simply walk the walk and do as they said they want to do on March 13. They should say we would join a government under an agreement to disarm all the militias before the governmnet is sworn in.
After all the previous governments failed because of the ARMS of HA.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 2:36 pmHere I disagree. Iceman.
Obviously, this is all speculation. We don’t know if such an offer is made or will ever be made.
I realize that in many countries “coalition” governments (not so much national unity governments) are common.
I think in the specific case of Lebanon, in the specific current context, it would be a bad idea.
It’s not so much about making your foe lose as it is about a style of government and politics.
When M8 has gone above and beyond in torpedoing national unity governments and has repeatedly blamed M14 for all the problems, and accused them of being corrupt and of being traitors, they’ve already been sitting there scoring political points against you with their constituents and the electoral at large.
This is the first time in recent history where M14 has had a chance of saying “Well, if you guys are so great, and we were the problem all along, show us what you can do.”
It is important for M14’s survival (like it or not) to score this point and not keep being a patsy to M8 (which is what they have been so far).
There is absolutely NO POINT in having your own movement, your own political party, or your own “side” if you don’t stand for anything, and if you keep providing M8 cover. Might as well rename themselves M8.
The whole point of having 2 “sides” is for there to be a winner and a loser, and in a true democracy (which Lebanon is not), the state and the citizen stand to benefit from such a rivalry and accountability.
It would really do Americans no favors if the Democrats – say – were to roll over for the Republicans every time they get bullied. Who’d hold the government accountable? What would each party run on in the next elections (thus providing accountability)? The whole point of a political system is to hold the other side accountable by saying “We can do better than you.” or “You failed here, here and here.”
Once you turn one party into a subservient to the other party, you mess up the entire dynamics of any political system based on accountability. What’s the point of even having an M14 if M8 gets to have their way no matter what?
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 3:02 pmI cannot elaborate as usual this time of daym. But, BV, I would still disagree. If, by some magic, HA agrees to disarm then M14 would have exceeded expectations. If HA does not agree then it would lose more and M14 would maintain same status.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 3:30 pmI cannot elaborate as usual this time of daym. But, BV, I would still disagree. If, by some magic, HA agrees to disarm then M14 would have exceeded expectations. If HA does not agree then it would lose more and M14 would maintain same status.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 3:30 pmThe anniversary of PM Rashid Karame’s assassination by the thug in Chief Samir Geagea, the personal representative of Satan on earth, who has assassinated thousands of people in cold blood, dumping their bodies at sea in 86. Today, he is a mere Trojan horse and the head of a thuggish CIA/MOSSAD proxy Militia. Samir Geagea on the anniversary of the assassination of former premier Rashid Karame, who was assassinated by Samir Geagea, according to the sentence of the legal council. Samir Geagea is rotten scum on earth and a despicable creature. He also assassinated Dany Chamoun and his family in cold blood and many many more people, including dozens of Lebanese Army officers and troops.
Posted by HK | May 31, 2011, 3:50 pmHk,
Coming from hobeika worshipper you are scoring points here. Geagea was convicted by the cnagaroo mukhabarati regime. He was incarcerated for eleven years on inuendo that you so freely inundate us with daily. If there is to be a court of justice; all warlords should pay for their misdeeds. Alas the butcher of Sabra & Shatilla is gone forever courtesy of his buddies in Damascus. He met his maker but it is obvious the stench is left behind to pollute us.
BV, I agree with you and Ice. There has to be a comprehensive set of principles and put forward by the M14 before even entertaining a joint venture… Disarming is not the answer. It has to be within the framework a new national pact whereas the state is the only power…
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 4:03 pmA good article by an eyewitness reporter from Syria.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2011/05/correspondents_diary_homs
QN…Still waiting for a write up on HA…Try to get into SHN’s head and give us some scenarios…
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 4:48 pmIceman,
First off, “If HA ever disarms by magic” is a non-starter to any conversation.
You and I both know that is never going to happen. So basing any argument on that hypothesis is moot.
I don’t quite see your point about M14 “Maintaining status”. Well, it makes sense if by “status” you mean “remaining subservient to M8”. Which means every future election and every future cabinet formation will suffer from the same imbalance of M8 getting their way (even if M14 wins elections) and being able to sabotage anything M14 may want to do.
Basically, your choices are now reduced to:
A) M14 election victory: National unity cabinet with M8 reserving the right to resign and bring down the government.
or
B) M8 election victory: No cabinet (to avoid international isolation) or a cabinet of patsies (see A).
So….yeah. I guess M14 gets to maintain their status of being idiots…
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 5:20 pmA few points:
(1) This “unity” government business is absurd (and not because M14 is selling out or it’s bad for their rep, or bla bla). Elections finish. Winners select the cabinet, the others sit in opposition in parliament. This should not be quantum physics.
(2) I think it is high time that the discussion veers into predictions of future developments. Those Saudi/Palestine/HA/STL discussions that keep happening (and the little Iceman mockeries are a side-show). But the core points are still quite relevant. What impact will the new regional orders have on Lebanon and what happens there?
– Will regime change in Syria change the dynamics on the Lebanese scene? For example, become less favorable to HA?
– Will there be pressure to disarm HA? How does that fit in with the Palestine question? What happens if in the border regions, we have greater “Palestinian” activity over the next few years? Will there be a political re-alignment happening in Lebanon? What/Where are the fault-lines?
– Will there ever be broad global views of this nature being discussed by the Lebanese themselves to help better weather future storms? Or will the Lebanese continue to be… well… Lebanese?
– If the Palestinians reclaim the “Muqawama”-crown and get broad support from a new regime in Syria, etc. Will HA trade their weapons for Bouquets of Roses to throw at the Israelis?
– Are these questions stupid? Interesting?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 6:00 pmThese questions are stupid…
🙂
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 6:08 pmYou just can’t take anything seriously anymore.
if it didn’t hurt so much, it would be one big joke. Even flip flopping Jumbo is over it.Lol.
Nas is giving reform advice to Assad.WTF????
political discourse between Pols is back to media outlets and live debates with the usual personal attacks and screams.The country is on the brink of collapse….meanwhile Assad gives amnesty out of the kindness of his heart.
Don’t ask too many detailed questions….everything is found in the bleeding obvious.
Posted by maverick | May 31, 2011, 6:19 pmHK… Question for you.
You come here often and keep singing the Praises of Hezbollah. At the same time, you’re a fan of Hobeika.
It is with complete ignorance I ask the following question, as really I am in no position to assess the correctness of what I ask.
(1) What was Hobeika’s feelings about HA? And does it agree with yours?
(2) With reference to his murder, as documented here:
http://www.meforum.org/meib/articles/0201_l1.htm
What are your feelings about the following statement:
It seems HA did not view Hobeika very favorably. Is this in fact true? Or Untrue? And if they didn’t look favorably upon a man you consider highly honorable (from what I gather), how does that translate to the the great honor you keep showering HA with?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 6:19 pmBV,
We know all this discussion is based on rumour. It is no more than an exercise. But it is worthy for lack of other topics unless we switch back to Syria.
Here’s where your solution fails. Regardless if you have a national unity or one color government’ you do not have a sovereign and functioning state as long as you have paramilitary organizations operating independently.
If M8 makes the offer and M14 refuses just to make M8 appear as losers there will be a backlash against M14 which will make them look as obstructionists. If M14 makes the counter offer it will make them look serious and holding on to principles even if as we know HA will most likely not agree. M14 in this case would have declined responsibly. As danny pointed out may also open the gates for some discussions on a new pact.
(And there is a big idiot here who keeps shaking his tail just like the tail equiped primates)
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 6:39 pmIceman#107
If you don’t mind me asking: You have at least 2 nephews at the AUB. In all likelihood, your age is over 40.
Why do you use language here more fitting for primary school children?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 6:59 pmThis is a most bizarre statement.
M8 ostensibly considers themselves the “Majority”.
What’s this non-sense about a Majority unable to form a government.
It is about as absurd as Stephen Harper crawling back to Ignatieff to ask him to offer up some Liberals for government posts.
M8 is now the ruling party. They should choose a cabinet. As per #103, this should not be quantum science.
Nor, if M14 “declines” to help out, should they be seen as “obstructionists”. This is absurd.
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 7:06 pmGK @ 90
Amen to that! i pray for the day we see this grand larcenist thug Berri behind bars but we know this isn’t going to happen, we have M14 to thank for bringing him back in when they had the majority.
Am surprised HK didn’t accuse Berri of being a CIA agent 🙂
Posted by V | May 31, 2011, 7:18 pmAs others pointed out before me, Iceman, your logic is complete nonesense. How can a minority be “obstructing” anything if M8 fails on to form a government on their own?
Not to mention that I don’t get why you used the words “your solution” to describe my comment.
I was not offering any kind of solution to anything.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | May 31, 2011, 7:21 pmBV,
So it is not your solution. What difference does it make? I am referring to one color vs national unity government. Whoever solution it may happen to be. These governments are sometimes necessary. We do not really have majority and minority governments at the moment. We have a hung parliement with disparate factions trying to reach a deal. How do you want to get out of this dilemma?
M8 can make an offer to M14 and M14 can refuse for no reason if you want and the country can remain without a government for another year. Is that what you want? Who fails in this case? This is the logic of the absurd.
…….
Very good you knew who you are Gabriel now. So behave yourself if you want to gain respect.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 7:35 pmQN,
Thank you for publishing my comment, and further more for editing it before posting it to the blog.
Apologies for my tardy response. I was on holiday and did not access the internet over the weekend.
Excellent questions and comments from HP, MM, Iceman, RedLeb, R2D2, Gabriel, EIU, and many others. I hope to respond to them later.
Thanks to the esteemed GK for his history of OGERO (#42), and to telecom #50 for explaining one of the many ways a person/corporation can make money through private telephony.
An important note about Miqati’s role is that his company Investcom, alongside France Telecom, built a significant chunk of Lebanon’s mobile network when they received in 1994. Investcom, then under the helm of Taha’s son Azmi, did the same thing again in 2000 in Syria.
I’m disheartened by Nadim Shehadi’s comment (#23), as he has the best access possible to one of the most significant actors involved. I wrote my comment in sensationalist comment form and picked and chose data to create a narrative following the norms of the debate going on in the Lebanese press, hence the structure is rather teleological rather than all-encompassing. I would love to see a thorough examination of this subject in something other than the partisan and sensationalist Lebanese press, however the surfeit of academics, think tanks, and policy institutes have yet to provide us with one.
Posted by Charles | May 31, 2011, 7:39 pmBV…
Since I have the mental faculties of a baboon (?! :D)… could you give me a crash course of why it’s so difficult to form a government?
– Are M14 members of parliament somehow vetoing the selection of individuals to cabinet posts in the government? Yes or No?
– If not. How is it that M8 is having a hard time selecting people to fill up the posts in the cabinet? After all it is a coalition of parties that have agreed to fall under the same umbrella. Can they not work together to select cabinet members from amongst their people?
– If, as the very sensible Iceman suggests, M14 should predicate “helping” out (I don’t really know what that means) on a disarmament of HA (which we all know is not going to happen).. what happens next… will Lebanon still:
a) be without any governments?
b) Have a single color government selected exclusively by M8?
– If yes (M14 is stopping M8 from selecting cabinet ministers). Why are they doing so? Shouldn’t they refrain?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 8:02 pmAll the discussions so far have been about tactical matters.
I believe that the real problem of Lebanon is not GMA, SHN, SG or RH. It’s about the following fundamental problems:
1- Lack of a single vision of Lebanon. What Lebanon do we really want? What form of government, what foreign policy, what economic policies?
2- Lack of trust. Each side in Lebanon fears that the other side is out to destroy it. This is one reason why dialogue is never fruitful.
3- Each side in Lebanon tries to weaken or destroy the other side using a foreign power. This is due in part to #2, and a preemptive move to avoid being destroyed.
4- The Lebanese public, in general, is extremely immature politically. It keeps electing the same scumbags, and believing in the same conspiracy theories. Some of the reasons for this are the points mentioned above:
#1: They have no vision for a Lebanon.
#2: They believe the scumbags will protect them against against annihilation by the other side.
#3: They have evidence that the other side is trying to annihilate them by siding with “evil foreigners”
The real question is how do we get out of this vicious circle? Are we doomed to repeat the same mistakes that have been plaguing us ever since the Phoenicians city states used to quarrel and undermine each other using foreign powers? Are these problems burnt deep into our collective DNA?
Posted by Erasmus | May 31, 2011, 8:26 pmLooks like more important developments are on the horizon than Lebanon and its government.
Turkey may finally be on the verge of acting. According to rebert Fisk again, it may move into Syria gradually, creating safe havens for refugees.
خطط تركية للتوغل داخل سورية لإقامة ملاذات آمنة للاجئين السوريين
31 أيار, 2011
قالت مصادر مطلعة إن تركيا، تحسباً لتدفق موجات من اللاجئين السوريين إلى أراضيها بسبب استمرار الاضطرابات السياسية في ذلك البلد،
وضعت خططاً سرية لمنع أكراد سورية من الانتقال إلى الجانب التركي من الحدود وذلك بإقامة «ملاذات آمنة للاجئين» داخل الأراضي السورية نفسها، موضحة في الوقت نفسه أن أنقرة تشعر بالغضب من القيادة السورية التي لم تنفذ تعهدات قطعتها على نفسها بإعلان انسحاب الجيش من الشوارع.
وذكر الكاتب البريطاني روبرت فيسك في صحيفة «اندبندنت» أن جنرالات تركيا اعدوا عملية تتضمن إرسال عدد من كتائب القوات المسلحة التركية إلى داخل سورية لإقامة «مناطق آمنة» للاجئين السوريين داخل الحدود الشمالية السورية.
وذكر فيسك أن الأتراك وفقاً لتلك الخطط «مستعدون للتقدم إلى ما وراء الحدود السورية وصولاً إلى مدينة القامشلي وحتى محافظة ديرالزور لإقامة ملاذات آمنة للفارين» لمنع وصولهم إلى الأراضي التركية، وذلك إذا ما تدهورت الأوضاع الأمنية في سورية واستمرت المواجهات.
وذكر إن السلطات التركية، وبعد أن شاهدت مئات اللاجئين يتدفقون من سورية عبر الحدود الشمالية للبنان، تخشى الآن من تكرار تجربة التدفق الكبير للاجئين من أكراد العراق الذين هربوا إلى داخل حدودها في أعقاب حرب الخليج عام 1991.
وكان عشرات الآلاف من أكراد العراق قد فروا إلى داخل الحدود التركية عندما شن الرئيس العراقي السابق صدام حسين حملة ضد الأكراد عام 1991. وآنذاك قتل آلاف الأكراد العراقيين من البرد داخل المنطقة الحدودية الجبلية بين العراق وتركيا. ولم يتمكن أكراد العراق من العودة إلى أراضيهم إلا عندما أقامت الولايات المتحدة «ملاذات آمنة» لهم شمال العراق.
وأشار فيسك إلى أن الحكومة التركية «وضعت نتيجة تلك المخاوف خططاً سرية لمنع أكراد سورية من التحرك بالآلاف إلى المناطق الكردية في جنوب شرقي تركيا».
كما قال «إن تركيا غاضبة من الرئيس بشار الأسد لأنه وعدها مرتين بتنفيذ الإصلاحات والانتخابات الديموقراطية لكن فشل في الوفاء بوعوده».
وأضاف «الحكومة التركية أرسلت مرتين وفوداً إلى دمشق» وطلبت من الأسد إعلان إصلاحات للشعب السوري لطمأنته إلى جدية الوعود الإصلاحية. كما ذكر أن الرئيس الأسد قال أمام وزير الخارجية التركي أحمد داوود أوغلو، في الزيارة الثانية، أنه سيستدعي قوات الفرقة الرابعة من شوارع المدن السورية، غير انه ومع دخول الاحتجاجات أسبوعها التاسع لم ينفذ الرئيس السوري وعوده.
ويعتقد مراقبون أتراك أن الكثير من أكراد سورية لا يصدقون أن الحكومة السورية ستقدم فعلاً على إصلاحات، أو ستعطيهم الجنسية، وبالتالي يتوقعون أن يعمد الكثير من أكراد سورية إلى محاولة الهروب إلى الحدود التركية.
Syrian opposition will be holding a conference in a border town in Turkey tomorrow. New Syrian ambassador was recently appointed in Turkey by the Syrian government. He is the known Mr. Dardari who replaced Mr. Qabalan. Apparently Mr. Qabalan has become a persona non-grata in Ankara after he expressed anger about supporting MB’s by the Turkish government describing that support as equal to Syria supporting the PKK.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 8:31 pmDanny @87, still waiting and will hold QN to his pledge. Else, I’ll start another crystal seed of a middle east revolt 😉
Gaby @83, don’t expose me wlah! Enjoy the game woo bass.
Charles, we’re waiting patiently but don’t leave us hanging. Your teaser was too good and got us all hooked. I don’t want to be singing:
wassaletna 3a niss-el-beer woo 2ta3t-el-7abl feena 😉
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 31, 2011, 8:49 pmHP,
Is it not soooooo funny when somebody identifies himself by himself?
What explanation can you give to that?
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 9:14 pmSelf-Awareness? 😉
Wow. It doesn’t really take much to entertain our Iceman. I’m sure glad I could be of service 😛
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 9:25 pmIceman…
All joking aside, and if you answer this question, I promise never to tease, question or reference you directly ever again….
How old are you?
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 9:28 pmYa 3ammeh, Iceman and Gabe, now I have to go read your posts carefully to figure out what you guys were arguing about… maybe I’ll do it. Still, I do think the civil debate and genuine yet polite mutual challenges of thoughts and positions is a good think. And I’m sincere in this.
As far as identifying oneself by oneself, what can I say? Each one should follow Plato’s edict articulated by Socrates’ “Know Thyself.”
Posted by Honest Patriot | May 31, 2011, 9:31 pmYou are still under probation as per comments over two months ago.
So far you keep relapsing. Which means you do not satisfy the first rule for engagement.
Promises are not satisfactory as behaviour speaks louder thyan words.
Don’t even bother.
Posted by iceman | May 31, 2011, 9:36 pmHP… Beats me, I didn’t even bring him up :). I think he got upset that I asked you why you ask him if he agrees with Fisk that the Saudi regime is an abomination.
Its either that, or you’ll need to go back to comments from 2 months ago, as apparently I’m still under probation, and the Soltan hasn’t deemed yet that I have earned his forgiveness 🙂
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 9:44 pmbahahahaha.
the Lebanese are tapped.
Posted by maverick | May 31, 2011, 9:48 pmWho needs Seinfeld when we have “Gabe on Ice” lol. 😀
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 10:19 pmQN,
Still waiting…
Posted by danny | May 31, 2011, 10:19 pmPlease stop criticizing The Resistance and the Lion of Damascus. They are all that have been protecting us from Israhell and the rapacious Zionists. Without Hizbollah’s arms and Assad’s fists, the martyrs of Palestine would have no hope for justice and revenge and Beirut and Damascus would be little tel avivs.
Posted by dontgetit | May 31, 2011, 10:41 pmSome Martyrs are Holy and Some Aren’t NewZ
the martyrs of Palestine would have no hope for justice and revenge
dontgetit,
What about the martyrs of Assad, Nejad, Gad-fly, Saddam Hussein, Hamas, and Hezbollah?
Those hundreds of thousands of souls were killed by Arabs despots so once again, I suppose we sweep those folks under the rug and way out of sight.
Or do they get “justice and revenge”?
Posted by Akbar Palace | May 31, 2011, 11:08 pmGabriel,
At times you have displayed an interest in facts, figures and unvarnished truth. The following are some preliminary figures from something that I have been working on recently that you might find interesting.
We all know that the telecom brings in to the Lebanese treasury a revenue of about $1.1 billion each year. EDL however requires a subsidy of $2.2 billion. Many like to suggest that this huge deficit is essentially due to encrouchments. This is only partially true.
The current average monthly residential charges for the first 500 kwh is under 70LL per KWH. That is about 4.6 cents per KWH.
These fees were last set in 1994 when the price of oil averaged $15.66 per barrel. Lebanon last year distributed about 10 billion KWH which simply suggests that an additional levy of a dime per KWH would cut the EDL deficit in half.
The other half is probably due to inefficient production facilities and encrouchments by citizens all over the country.
Gabe #114
You said” How is it that M8 is having a hard time selecting people to fill up the posts in the cabinet? ”
I do not know whether the above is supposed to be a serious query or whether it is just a tongue is cheek kind of a question.But just in case it is serious:The MSM in Lebanon have not dealt seriously enough with the difficulty of forming a cabinet. It is a gross and inaccurate simplification to suggest that the cabinet is essentially HA, FPM and Amal. Aoun has his three junior partners, Tashnak, Marada and Arslan that need to be satisfied. Then there is the representation of Jumblatt in addition to Zahle. The obstacles that arise from the above loose coalition are not formidable. The real issue is the share of the president and that of Mikati. Mikati does not want to be a figure head only. He insists on being a PM with some heft . This means that he will bring with him Safadi plus at a least another two. I think that the real obstacle has been the allocation of the ministerial portfolios. If Mikati and the president are to take say Defense, Interior, Trade, Telecommand Finance while public works goes to Jumblatt then what is left for all the others?
The real problem is that they cobbled together a slim majority without discussing the details. And ss we all know that is where the devil resides 🙂
Posted by ghassan karam | May 31, 2011, 11:27 pmAP says:”dontgetit,
What about the martyrs of Assad, Nejad, Gad-fly, Saddam Hussein, Hamas, and Hezbollah?
Those hundreds of thousands of souls were killed by Arabs despots so once again, I suppose we sweep those folks under the rug and way out of sight.
Or do they get “justice and revenge”?”
This is typical Israhell “hasbarah”. Every time the zionists are called to task for their insane cruelty, they try to pretend that the Arabs are even worse. But Arab loyalty to Palestinian rights to permanent refugee status cannot excuse “israeli”apartheid and no matter how many people the Lion of Damascus may kill, it will pale in comparison to the horrors of Cast Lead. Go back to your dream world and imagine that Arab on Arab killing is the result of anything other than a reaction to your own depravity.
Posted by dontgetit | May 31, 2011, 11:34 pmGK…
As always, thanks for the info. I like to stick to facts and numbers.
Re: second question. No it wasn’t tongue and cheek. I wasn’t sure if Iceman was suggesting the reason that no government was put in place for the past few months because they were actually “obstructing” the formation of such a government. Mikati is M8’s choice, no? So they need to figure out some way of making their loose coalition work. They simply have to take responsibility for forming a government.
Also, I don’t think M14 should be in a government, not because it is a matter of spite. I think this whole Unity government is senseless. If a party gets elected (even if they cobble up a “coalition”), this coalition has to form the government. It doesn’t matter if its M8 or M14, or M-Teezee. I really don’t think this ought to be as complicated as the Lebanese appear to be making it out to be.
Sometimes, you will perhaps have to excuse my naivety, and it’s simply because I never know if I’m missing part of the story (since I don’t read every source and rely on what little snippets get posted here and there) or if the various characters currently in power in Lebanon really are simply just making a farce out of the political system.
Posted by Gabriel | May 31, 2011, 11:48 pmOf all areas of Syria the Turkish army would set up base to “protect refugees”… they pick the furthest point North East of the country, farthest from all the towns currently under siege… and home to Syria’s Kurdish population…..
… and some believe that Turkey is doing that out of concern for refugees?
Am I missing something?
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 12:06 amTo those better informed/aware than me, why has the idea of setting up of a GAO-equivalent in Lebanon not been raised more frequently? It is crazy that theories such as Charles’ may be true, but no one can be certain… How is it possible that public money can be fought over between different mafia-like figures, without us, whose money it really is at the end of the day, even knowing enough information to be able to tell whether it is true or not? We need some laws on transparency: every LL/$ spent by the government, should be retrievable on a website. The money earned by politicians in the last 2 decades needs to be justified, to the last cent, ie what percentage of it was made due to that person’s role as a well-connected politician? How much is being spent on government contracts (e.g. maintenance of roads, power/telecom infrastructure), and who is the recipient?
These things aren’t so difficult to implement, and will pay for themselves. Hiring and empowering a few people will be all it takes. Is the issue really that everyone’s hands are dirty, so that while they are happy to put on a charade of fighting each other all the time in shifting alliances, this is, somehow, also a distraction, because at the end of the day they all have a common interest in dividing the pie between them and covering up the fact that they are all somehow implicated?
Again, I don’t know enough, nor am I frankly that interested in following it all anymore. But am just throwing something out there.
Posted by PB | June 1, 2011, 3:50 amGabriel # 106,
Meforum, MEIB, USCFL, are CIA/MOSSAD tools used extensively to smear Mr. Elie HOBEIKA from 1998 to 2002. They were part and parcel of the Demonization campaign against Elie, in preparation for his cowardly assassination by the most Infamous White House Murder INC, on January 24th 2002….by strange Bedfellows indeed…
Whatever MEIB, Meforum or USCFL and Gary Gambill say are utter bull shit. It is part of the deception and denial campaigns to hide the tracks of CIA/MOSSAD extra-judicial assassinations. The story they concocted the very next day after the assassination of Mr. Elie Hobeika about Imad Moughnieh being the culprit is pure unadulterated BUNK made in CIA/MOSSAD.
Elie Hobeika was on good talking terms with Hassan Nasrallah but did not agree with their politics at the time, because he feared their desire of setting up an Islamic state in Lebanon at some point in time. But politics do evolve, perceptions evolve and projects evolve…also, convictions evolve!
Then, Who says that Hezbollah always saw eye to eye with Syria??? They still don’t today, and whoever says otherwise is obviously has never spoken to the cadre of Hezbollah…
V, for your information Nabih BERRI worked extensively with DIA for years, and I had a post with all the details in a previous thread, go check it out 🙂
Posted by HK | June 1, 2011, 3:53 amHK…
Thx for the response, and if you don’t mind me redirecting…
So if somehow I were to have access to SHN today, and I were to ask him if he (today) still believed Hobeika was behind S&C or if he believes he was framed for it. Which would he say?
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 5:18 amG # 134,
Your question has been answered time and again. The book of Alain Menargues has all the answers and the most accurate description of what really happened in 82, and IDF operations “Spark” and “Iron Brain” were part and parcel of the IDF invasion plans. All that is well known by now. IDF needed a fall guy, they chose Elie Hobeika and they have been at it since 82…and they continue smearing Elie to this very day in many articles and publications ten years after they and the Infamous White House Murder INC, assassinated him…January 24th 2002 at 9.20 AM in Hazmieh!
Going back to your question, I had the honor and the privilege of meeting SHN way back in 04, and I am more than satisfied with the conversation we had, which covered all these topics. I will never disclose the details of that most interesting meeting.
🙂
Posted by HK | June 1, 2011, 5:59 amThe Wacky World of Anti-Zionism
I asked dontgetit:
What about the martyrs of Assad, Nejad, Gad-fly, Saddam Hussein, Hamas, and Hezbollah?
Those hundreds of thousands of souls were killed by Arabs despots so once again, I suppose we sweep those folks under the rug and way out of sight.
Or do they get “justice and revenge?
dontgetit replied:
This is typical Israhell “hasbarah”. Every time the zionists are called to task for their insane cruelty, they try to pretend that the Arabs are even worse.
dontgetit,
“hasbarah”? How so? Isn’t it true the Arabs have killed more Arabs than Israel? This should be a yes or no answer.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 6:52 amThe Murderers were Syrian so let’s talk about Israhell NewZ
Torture of the child martyr: ‘Rebel’, 13, shot, kneecapped and had genitals removed before being killed by Syria’s sadistic regime
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1392684/Hamza-child-martyr-tortured-death-Syrian-soldiers.html#ixzz1O1LhuKpk
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 6:58 amAP #138,
Thanks for the link. This was pure savagery.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 7:22 amIsrahell NewZ
GK,
I can’t say I like posting this stuff, but when Arabs can only be outraged by Israel, I find that to be ignorant. Not to say, there are liberal Arabs on the 2 sites I visit (QN and SC) who ARE outraged by Arab savagery, and I would understand outrage if the IDF did the same thing.
Anyway, you’ll be happy to know that a top Iranian cleric has given permission to kill Israeli civilians and children:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4076176,00.html
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 7:36 amGK,
Here’s an article from “Israhell” you may find interesting…
http://frontpagemag.com/2011/05/30/one-day-in-the-life-of-an-israeli-hospital/
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 7:39 amHP and danny
What are you guys waiting for? I have no idea
Posted by Qifa Nabki | June 1, 2011, 7:59 amAP #141
President Carter was the first high ranking person to accuse Israel of apartheid in print. His accusation and that of many on US campuses is not as much concerned with the treatment of Israeli Arabs but by the treatment of the Palestinians. One can suggest that even the treatment of Israeli Arabs is under pressure to become less equitable.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 7:59 amGK,
Thanks for the lesson on the all-knowing ME expert, President Carter. I get to him later today;)
But what did you think about the article I linked to? Any thoughts positive or negative?
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 8:06 amQN,
HP is waiting for the answers to his questions from iceman…(I assume) 😀
I was waiting for a post from you re: HA’s options (disarm/take over Lebanon/integrate into the army?)in Lebanon considering the geopolitical turmoil in ME…
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 8:17 amJimmy’s Bait & Switch (con’t)
http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=7&x_issue=9&x_article=2052
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 8:42 amAP,
One does not need to be an expert inthe politics of a region or be super smart to see apartheid. all what one needs is to be human. This has nothing to do with 242.
It is not only Carter that warned about apartheid. Both Golda meir and Abba Eban said essentially the same thing about occupation. I have heard it said many times, but I have not been able to find a reliable source for it, that Ben Gurion told Meir on his death bed: Give it back.
The options that result from occupation are very few:
(1) Treat everyone equally and that results in a demographic problem or (2) apply two different treatments. I imagine none of the above is acceptable and therefore the only way out is a negotiated settlement .
As you can see a two state solution on fair terms is good for all parties.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 9:00 amhmm, let me advance the alternate theory that I was waiting for my
as in:
Q- https://qifanabki.com/2011/05/26/some-arab-revolutions-are-more-equal-than-others/
A- https://qifanabki.com/2011/05/26/some-arab-revolutions-are-more-equal-than-others/#comment-24482
Waiting for: my plate of Syrian baklawa as in “First one to spot the odd one out wins a plate of Syrian baklawa”
Posted by Honest Patriot | June 1, 2011, 9:11 amOh! and the proletariat is also demanding more of Charles…
puhleez
Posted by Honest Patriot | June 1, 2011, 9:14 amHK..
I didn’t realize we are in the company of people who had the privilege of an audience with SHN!
By no means would I ever ask you to divulge the conversations you had between you too, as I am certain they must be top secret.
All I’ve asked is (and you should know as you’ve spoken to SHN personally)….does SHN agree that Hobeika was in fact innocent from killing thousands of Muslims in SC? It’s a Yes or No answer.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 10:30 amOne does not need to be an expert inthe politics of a region or be super smart to see apartheid.
GK,
I agree with you. So please tell the audience here what apartheid you witnessed in Israel.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 10:36 amAP.
I think when states explicitly follow policies that promote “apartness” between different groups, you have a situation of apartheid.
So of course, there is no question that Israel, being by construct a “Jewish” state, has followed apartheid policies.
But you should not necessarily dismay. The Arab/Islamic world in its entirety is formed of Apartheid states. First and foremost on this list is Saudi Arabia, which completely blows Israel on the Apartheid Richter scale.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 10:47 amThe Israeli Apartheid Libel
Gabriel,
Thank you for chiming in, but this term you used, “apartness”, is nebulous.
Here is a list of countries with state religions. Note that Israel is NOT one of them because Israel has NO state religion.
It goes back to the term “Jewish People”, and as we have seen, this term is difficult for many people to “wrap their mind around it”. The link below touches on this subject and states that “Jewish” is a polyseme.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_religion
Whereas “apartness” is perceived, “apartheid” is ILLEGAL. See the link below.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_of_apartheid
Most Israelis contend there is no apartheid because Israeli citizens are equal under the law. But like most countries, racism still exists and law suits are still filed. Whereas anti-Arab racism was fairly abundant years ago in Israel, I find it has improved greatly. Many people (mostly anti-Zionists and liberals) are HOPING that Israel experiences that same internal demonstrations that are being experienced across the ME; namely, Israeli-Arabs demonstrating against the GOI.
But getting back to Apartheid, no one including President Carter has been able to prove to me that it exists in Israel. Most Jews and Israelis understand it is a hammer to hit Israel over the head with at the UN.
And speaking of the UN, wouldn’t you agree that if over a thousand Israelis were killed in demonstrations, the UN would be breathing hellfire within the various assemblies?
Why is this not the case for the Utopian State of Syria?
Alan Desrhowitz is usually cited for a good defense of the label Jimmy Carter helped to pin on the GOI…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-dershowitz/the-world-according-to-ji_b_34702.html
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 12:04 pmAP:
Ethnicity/Religion. It makes no difference to me. You may think the definition is nebulous. But that’s alright. For me apartheid should have a simple definition: discrimination because of “apartness”. Be that skin color, race, ethnicity, political beliefs, religious beliefs, orientation, gender.
As for the rest of your point. That is all legalese.
Egypt discriminates against the Bahaii. They make copts jump through loops and hoops to build churches. Saudi Arabia doesn’t even allow non-Muslims into Mecca.
When was the last time you saw anyone in Durban holding up signs saying Islamism = Apartheid?
I see the ICC lists as part of its list of crimes against humanity “Deportation or forcible transfer of population;”.
Hmmm. Has the ICC gone after Turkey yet for deporting leading to death for its Armenian population?
If not, what are they waiting for?
So please don’t bog me down with strict legal definitions.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 12:23 pmSo please don’t bog me down with strict legal definitions.
Gabriel,
Firstly, Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are not accused by the UN and ex-US presidents of being “an apartheid state” when they’re more like one than Israel!
Secondly, I don’t like being told by people who have never visited or lived in Israel that Israel is an apartheid state.
If there are specific cases of racism, the Israeli court and legal aide systems work quite well.
“Legalese” is just a way to separate the real from the imagined.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 12:31 pm…and the Supreme leader of Lebanon has proclaimed:
Nasrallah: Iran is called the Islamic Republic of Iran and not Velayat-e Faqih. There have been several efforts in the passed few years to represent it as an oppressive state and these are all lies.
Now we are set straight! All those demonstrators brutally suppressed and killed are a figment of your imagination…just like what you hear about the atrocities in Syria. They are all lies.
eufff…Thank God we have Hassan Nassrallah. 😀
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 12:33 pmGabriel and Iceman (around #114)
Sorry for the tardy response. But what the hell are you guys smoking? It is now M14’s fault that M8 cannot form a government on its own? Jesus F*** Christ and all the saints, the Prophet, apostles and everything else that’s holy! I give up talking to you people.
How can M14 possibly be responsible for obstructing something they have no say into?
And iceman: “Sometimes cabinets of national unity are needed to make things work” (I paraphrase)…Really? Because last i checked, every single cabinet of national unity we’ve ever had has been a complete and utter failure. Every single one. So why is it exactly that “sometimes those are needed”? Needed to do what? Fail miserably?
And again, I don’t understand the bizarre circular logic you guys are exhibiting. M8 does not want to govern with M14, so they brought that government down. But now they want to govern with M14 again because they can’t govern alone? Which one is it? Either they can’t govern with M14, or they can’t govern alone. Can’t have it both ways. Or maybe this just proves that M8 can’t govern period, with or without help. In which case they should quit politics entirely and stop preventing others from at least trying to govern.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 1:00 pmBV:
What’s your issue with me? I agree with you! 🙂
AP:
OK… And?
Look, I don’t think that because Iran or KSA are apartheid states worse than Israel that this means Israel should not aim higher and be better.
If. KSA doesn’t allow church building, should the West ban mosque building? A little tit for tat? In my view, no!
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 1:53 pmPS (AP)
There should be motions put in the UN against Saudi Arabia and Iran, and other such cesspools.
The question is who’s going to do it. Apparently the world is too beholden to that black liquid
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 1:57 pmDanny,
This mantra of blaming others for our problems is stale, has no traction and is an easy to avoid taking responsibility for the mess that we have created. Let SHN and others blame the American-Israeli scheme all they want. In the final analysis most and possibly all of the problems of the Arab world would be either totally resolved or much less acute had we been less authoritarian and more democratic. The easiest way to avoid a spat based on religion or national origin is to treat all members of a society equally. Unless we learn that lesson then the political,social and economic fault lines will only become more severe.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 2:08 pmGK,
Agreed.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 2:21 pm…this means Israel should not aim higher and be better
Gabriel,
I think the GOI is aiming higher. But that’s hard for someone to see outside of the leftist and arab media and Jimmy Carter’s books and articles.
I appreciate your feedback.
“Black liquid”, fear of terrorism, and Saudi money is what we Zionists are up against.
Good thing we own the media!;)
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 2:45 pmBV,
Why should one keep repeating himself with you?
Who said we’re blaming M14 for M8 faiure?
Do you recognize the fact that we do not have majorities and minorities? Instead we have disparate factions seeking to make deals.
Do you understand what a hung parliament is?
When you have a parliament made up of such disparate factions, it is absolutely normal to try to seek deals to form governments made up of these disparate factions. And that applies to all countries and not just Lebanon.
In certain circumstances, a National Unity government is a necessity. And that too apllies to all countries and not just Lebanon.
You are probably OK with HA and its factions reaching an impasse and you probably prefer to see their outright failure. Well, HA doesn’t give a damn about Lebanon and its government and wouldn’t care less if it fails in forming a government. It already has its own ‘State’. Do you want to have a State? If so then how do you want to do it? Just by watching HA fails. I wonder who’s using circular logic: I cannot get my state, therefore, I wait and watch HA fail, therefore I do not get my state because HA does not allow me to have my state since it already has its own state. Good luck with this logic.
But before I forget it is all based on rumors as you know very well.
But after another year of no gevernment, could you imagine what would be left of your ‘state’?
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 2:47 pmThere is already nothing left of our state, Iceman. Moot point.
On an unrelated topic, I found this pretty interesting:
The Armenian genocide and Israeli recognition
http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=277041
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 2:50 pmTo AP 153, 162 to G 154 and others,
As to J. Carter. A close relative is in Georgia now working as a mechanic, adjusting a machine made in Israel. He behave with all the plant workers as you do in Israel in a mixed situation of Jews and Arabs, black and white, talk, joke, dress, change cloth, change information, gossip,etc, etc etc. Also he behave the same in other occasions. Several times he was corrected, by both black and white,in the most polite, gentle and sensative way and told how to behave and what should and should not be done. His conclusions are very simple: in many ways there is much more aprthide in Georgia than in Israel, things that lasted there for about 300 years can not be changed in less that a hundred years. Examples are numerous. My conclusions are that Mr. Carter has much to do in Georgia before he start preaching about Israel, but then there is much less money and publicity fighting aparthide in Georgia.
Posted by Rani Hazbani | June 1, 2011, 3:16 pmWhat a bizarre, bizarre man.
I can understand why people in the Middle East may have a hard time getting the “Democracy” thing. Why with lack of experience, and other such things.
But for a “Canadian” to have a hard time getting it is bizarre.
Especially that here in Canada we’ve been plagued with a Series of Minority Governments, which has just recently turned into a Majority. The Tories still don’t have majority Popular support.
On Specifics:
– Who said we’re blaming M14 for M8 faiure?
When one states that if M14 does not engage in the process with M8 to form a government, then it would be obstructionist…. then he is in effect blaming M14 for M8’s failure.
– Do you recognize the fact that we do not have majorities and minorities? Instead we have disparate factions seeking to make deals.
All political parties everywhere in the world are made from disparate functions. The “Groupings” that decided to form themselves in Lebanon go under the heading of M8 and M14. Whatever that means. Technically, the M8 now represent a small majority in parliament. They should pick the cabinet from amongst their members.
Since they- nobody forced them to- chose to lump themselves in that grouping called M8. They should stop acting like children, and pick a government.
– Well, HA doesn’t give a damn about Lebanon and its government and wouldn’t care less if it fails in forming a government. It already has its own ‘State’.
If HA doesn’t care about Lebanon or its government. Why did it join the political process? If that is indeed the case, it should state so, remove itself from the political process. Let others who care about forming a government do so.
And new elections should be called.
If it is bent on being “obstructionist”… i.e. refuses to be part of the government, as well as refusing to allow others to form a government, then the areas under its control and military might should be “cut out” from Lebanon.
They can run their own little statelet without the larger state of Lebanon.
Things do not have to be made overly complex.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 3:24 pmRani #165
If that is the yardstick that you want to apply then all what yoiu are doing is denying the facts, Please feel free to play that game of self delusion. Apartheid is not about whether we love each other and whether we have personal prejudices or not. Apartheid is an official government policy that differentiates and discriminates.That , Rani, does not exist in Georgia or anywhere in the US. The Federal law offers you protection.
Obviously that is not the case in the territories of Israel. The Palestinians are discriminated against in practically every respect, hell, there are highways that they cannot use, their land is confiscated, their olive trees are uprooted, their water is kept away from them… If you supporty this then it is your prerogative but do not uase palliative and untruths to cover it up and make it acceptable. Israels behaviour in the West bank and Gaza is morally bankrupt and the longer this wound is aloud to fester the deeper the cancer will spread.
Posted by gkaram | June 1, 2011, 3:33 pmGabriel,
Are trying to push Quebec out of the confederation? They have Just for laughs. 😀
This back and forth is so exhausting and fruitless.
We have discussed this for eons. In a summary if you all permit me:
A. M8 toppled the government and boasted of the new majority (see what HA’s mouthpieces and clAoun were declaring in January)
B. The main reason was to leave Lebanon without a government ahead of pending STL (or so they thought)indictments.
M14 was glad to be absolved of the task of having to arrest HA/Syrian agents if they were to be implicated…
C. They M8 and their masters in Syria should be left alone to try to form the government…M14 should not and will not make any such moves. They still are in charge with the caretaker government 9considering WJ’s bobbing head again) and they can run the daily affairs of the nation. Caretaker means NOT abdicating your duties!!! Did you hear that drama Queen Baroud?
D. The only way I can see is all sides to agree NOW on the future. The whole nation is tired of these war mongers and corrupt zaims. Either they should sit down with each side presenting its vision of Lebanon; and sign a new pact with non sectarian agenda. they can put in a short road map and ask Iceman to export his country’s (Canada’s not Quebec’s lol) Charter of Rights inro Lebanon. No need to recreate the wheel.
Khallas ba’aa!!! let’s cut this Bovine scatalogy. I do not see any other “trading or bartering” as beneficial.
Either that or civil war?? …Or cut the freaking land up and khallesna!!!
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 4:24 pmApartheid is an official government policy that differentiates and discriminates.
GK,
I agree with you, however, Gabriel claims this is all “legalese”.
The Palestinians are discriminated against in practically every respect, hell, there are highways that they cannot use, their land is confiscated, their olive trees are uprooted, their water is kept away from them…
GK,
I challenge you to identify a “Jews only” road. Please be careful with the “facts” you may have picked up while reading TIME magazine or the like.
Where the PA is in charge and in control, no Israeli (Jew or Arab) is allowed in unless given permission by the PA. Similarly, on all Israeli maintained roads in the West Bank, both Israeli Jews and Arabs are allowed to use them. And they do everyday.
Israels behaviour in the West bank and Gaza is morally bankrupt and the longer this wound is aloud to fester the deeper the cancer will spread.
How so? By building walls that probably have saved hundreds perhaps thousands of Israeli lives? By creating roadblocks that also saved many lives?
Israel has given control back to the Palestinians and have defacto given the Palestinians independence. Israel is not allowed back into these population centers. In return Israel has not gotten any agreement or assurances.
Israeli law applies in Israel and all Israeli citizens have equal rights as it should be.
The rest is a negotiated settlement whereby no further claims are permitted, borders are established, and relational details are metted out by both countries.
There are more pressing issues around the world if you were to ask me.
Posted by Akbar Palace | June 1, 2011, 4:29 pmg;
go take a leap on a flying donut together with dany boon ! 🙂
Posted by HK | June 1, 2011, 5:01 pmI have never seen so many references to Jimmy Carter in the last 20 years as I have seen in this discussion thread!
You are all drowning into details and trivia. The real issues of Lebanon are existential.
SHN is talking about partitions in the Middle East, how Sudan was already partitioned, and predicting Libya and Yemen will be next, followed maybe by Syria.
Should Lebanon be partitioned? Shall we have a federal or similar system (e.g. a la Swiss)?
Posted by Erasmus | June 1, 2011, 5:03 pmYou don’t like Quebec, right? Why don’t you just say that? You can only ignore Quebec at your own risk, because je me souviens toujours?
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 5:09 pmHK:
Is #170 directed at me? If so, can you translate?
Also, once you get a chance, can you respond to #150:
Does SHN believe, today, that Hobeika is in fact innocent what you say are false allegations against him vis-a-vis Sabra and Chatilla?
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 5:11 pmIce I love Quebec man. Amazing food; great pubs and excellent festivals…But i was just talking about the equalization payments tilt filling up Quebec’s coffers…When is Quebec going to be a donner. 😀
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 5:16 pmGabriel,
It has been said that if you are acid and ganja as long as Cheech (HK) has been (from leftovers of his drug lord baron Hobeika)…You would see flying donuts too lol. 😀
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 5:18 pmErasmus,
If you had read the 4-5 posts that refernce Carter then you would have noted that no one was talking about either Lebanon or the childish analysis of SHN. When in doubt throw around accusations and always make sure that it is the big Satan that is blamed. Are we responsible for anytghing in our lives? Is it the West that created the Ba’ath and Bashar? Was it the West that installed Gaddafi and Bashir? Who is it that accepted Sadam and Ben Ali. The next thing that you are going to tell me , I imagine, is that the West was behind the 1952 Egyptian revolution? Give me a break:-)
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 5:47 pmGhassan,
Of course we have zero responsibility in anything that we do in our lives. It is all imposed on us from above. You should know that by now.
We have absolutely no free will.
We’re poor souls, condemned to be buffeted around by forces bigger than us…
etc…
*vomits violently…
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 6:01 pmGK,
Your take on this article …
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/more_housing_hell_aczDMaSv0hSB9tN2xiRY9J
Posted by R2D2 | June 1, 2011, 6:01 pmGhassan and BV,
Of course we’re not responsible. It’s all maktub 🙂
Hatha houwa qadarouna.
Or to quote another great hero: “Hakatha aradana allah, hakatha houwa attareekh, hakatha hiya aljoughrafia”
E.
Posted by Erasmus | June 1, 2011, 6:40 pmIceman Iceman Iceman.
Now that I have time for the frivolous convos.
Who writes stuff like this. As I asked before, how old are you, really?
On a serious note though (because I think the prism through which you see reality is a little messed up), on this point on “engagement”, why do you think I would want to engage with you in a manner different from how I have been doing it for the last few months?
Take, for a recent example, HP. He asked you several times if you agreed with Fisk’s views on the Gulf after promoting that article. And several times, you ignored him.
Do you really think I would want to engage with you differently?
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 6:41 pmSome strange sayings attributed to the man that was celebrated today in Iran and Lebanon and possibly a few other countries:
“Girls and boys who attend coeducational classes in grammar schools, high schools. universities..and who wish to contract a temporary marriage may do so without the permission of their fathers”.
I understand universities but isn’t grammar school too young for that? Who dispenses the temporary marriage certificates for 6 years old?
“It is shameful to do one’s work under orders of a Jewish foreman”
I wonder whether one can go to a US college without encountering Jewish Departmental chairs?
“Radio and television are allowed if they are used for the broadcasting of news or sermons…. but they must prohibit singing, music, anti -Islamic laws ,the lauding of tyrants, mendacious words…”
Is there such a radio or TV service besides Almara:-)
“Islamic justice is based on simplicity and ease….. All that is requiredis for an Islamic judge, with a pen and inkwell and two or three enforcers, to go into a town, come to his verdicton any kind of case, and have it immediately carried out. Look at the present cost in time and money in Western society with all its judicial procedures..”
I , for one am sure glad that ink wells are difficult to find these days.
“Since the Almighty did not designate anyone by name to form the Islamic government in the absence of the hidden Imam what are we to do?…”
allow a self anointed Imam ?
If the sultans are obedient to Islam then they should be obedient to the clergy….. In this way the clergy are the real leadres”
Rasputin, anyone?
“Holy war means the conquest of all non-Moslem territories.Such aar may well be declared… at the direction of the Imam….the final aim of which(the conquest() is to put Koranic law in power from one end of the earth to the other”
World domination?
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 6:43 pmOn a side note, this discussion thread reminds me of the good old discussions on Usenet, specifically soc.culture.lebanon (SCL)
Has any of you partaken in SCL?
I know, this dates me, and labels me as a geek 😉
Please ignore if you don’t even know what I’m talking about.
Posted by Erasmus | June 1, 2011, 6:47 pmGhassan,
Have you ever read Khomeini’s book that became quite popular in the very late 70’s and early 80’s? It was full of gems like the ones you mentioned.
E.
Posted by Erasmus | June 1, 2011, 6:51 pmI guess dontgetit daily comments are here to remind the audience how valuable the Resistance is, and what importance it has in the fight against the evil.
I see that most of the discussion slips towards Israel, so I feel that we also need to remind QN’s readership about the level of civilization that this tiny little country has reached, and how much it is contributing in educating this backward people called “arabs”. By the way, somebody in that blog already had the guts to ask “who are these so-called arabs?”. Well articulated question.. and if we look in detail on historical facts, we will see that the “arabs” are as mythological as the Atlantes.
So in that perspective, do not be surprised when you see the US congress giving 50 ovations to the leader of this vanguard country.
Posted by 3issa | June 1, 2011, 6:55 pmDanny,
On ganga.. Lol
GK.
I believe iceman has already put that to rest. The baath was the product of Orientalist meddling. He has proposed Baath V2.0, but was a little short on the details.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 6:59 pmGhassan,
True gems, no?
If you were to post those quotes without attributing them to their author, in pretty much 99% of the globe, people would claim it the work of a madman/charlatan.
But no, in our neck of the woods, we plaster his posters everywhere and revere him like some kind of enlightening figure. Not to mention making ridiculous speeches to commemorate him…
I’ll stick to madman/charlatan.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 7:21 pmGaby,
No issues brother…
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/ganja
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ganja
Any news from the VW of Cheech? 😀
Posted by danny | June 1, 2011, 7:39 pmR2D2 #178
I do not know how serious you are when you point out this column. I follow these issues very closely and I could go on and on about them. i do not think that many, if any, on this forum will be interested. But yet you do bring up a very important issue.
Is the lackluster housing market holding back the US economy? Hell yes it is. Could it take the US back into a recession? I have learned never to say an emphatic no but in this case I will:-)
Were ther excesses in the US housing market? You be the judge? If it was possible to flip a house within 24-48 hours and make a decent profit then was that a bubble?
I am not downplaying the negative effects of this bubble. Housing was oversold to the Americans and there is nothing wrong in renting. As you might know home ownership in the Us is around 66% while in Switzerland it is only 28%.
Housing is very important because so many unskilled labour depends on it for a living. The decline in housing is having a devastating effect of the distribution of income and that is what worries me the most.
Anyway, my crystal ball which is juat as cloudy as anyone else’s 🙂 tells me that the demise of the American economy is very much exagerated. The US is still the most vigorous and dynamic economy in the world and will remain so for a few decades at least. If the next frontier area is the marriage of computers and biology, which I think it is, then the US will lead this charge and even dominate it just as it did in microships, telephones, TV’s, cell phones, PC’s smart phones …
Ideologically i am opposed to economic growth and to a unipolar world but this is not about what ought but about what is.
I hope that Americans will stop looking at housing as an investment. It is only shelter. That coupled with the possibility oflower growth will keep real estate prices down especially in the places where they went up the most.
BTW, I have been predicting a housing bust in Lebanon for over a year and I have been partially correct. Prices have come down substabtially but the bust has not occured yet. I think that it might still happen but it will never be as severe as what hit the US, Ireland and Spain because of the lower degree of leverging. Since you live in Lebanon, then you probably know about Beit Misk, just before Babda’at. Most of the homes sell for over half a million dollars and a very large number is bought on speculation. They put the down and expect to flip it by the time the apartments are ready. If the instability continues then who are they going to flip it to and at what price? One thing is certain, Beit Misk and the other similar developments in Bhamdoun, Aley… are not meant for the average Lebanese making $18000 a year.
I have often been called , by my friends, a giraffe, because i am willing to stick my neck out:-). The US will not go into a double dip, housing has bottomed 2011 will see 12.5 million cars sold and the fourth quarter will grow at 3.5%. Put this aside, open it on new year eve and double check the accuracy:-) I am always ready to eat my beret.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 7:55 pmGhassan,
I’m gonna write down your predictions and revisit next year.
(I tend to agree with your assessment, btw).
Posted by Bad Vilbel | June 1, 2011, 8:15 pmAlways informative Gus,
I’m one of those crazy expats looking for a place in Lebanon to semi-live there.( emphasis on semi). I’ll keep an ear to the ground in regards to real estate and don’t hold back on giving your thoughts on this subject.
Beit Misk was too pleasantville for my liking…and I’m sure a lot of overpriced Beirut properties will come down, but the thing is with Lebanon is that there is a high demand for property because of all the expats recent attachment to their homeland ,coupled with scarce resources. Isn’t a simple market principle of supply and demand that will keep the real estate in Lebanon afloat and ever increasing?
Posted by maverick | June 1, 2011, 8:39 pmThe nyt article is not only about the housing market, it is about the general economy of the US.
The decline of the housing market in the US is not the only cause for the weak US economy, and in fact it is not even the major cause.
I speak from first hand experience dealing with directors and CEOs who are responsible for making major policy decisions for major multinational multi-billion dollar companies. The nyt article is talking about the failure of the US economy to produce jobs in order to turn around this latest recession triggered by the housing market collapse. There is a deliberate decision on the part of corporate America to outsource production to Asia. There is a catch acronym for those countries among corporate America. They do not even refer to them by the country’s full name. They call them LCC’s for low cost countries. America is not producing. Its economy has turned into a service economy consuming what the rest of the world is selling to it at prices it cannot afford. Only the creation of jobs can stimulate the economy and that has not happened 4 years after the housing market triggered recession
What the nyt article is predicting from the continued weak housing market, if you read it carefully, is the onset of the much feared deflationary cycle which will drag every one down the road to the abyss.
Today, Pres. Obama appealed to the congress which voted down his proposal to increase the limit on government borrowing, which I mentioned under a recent thread is getting broken at the moment. The proposal was voted down by 318 votes against 97 votes and Obama warned of dire consequences to the US and world economy. Even if Congress eventually approves, which is unlikely, 600000 federal and government employees will have to be laid off. If Obama agrees to the Congress demands of reduced spending in exchange for approval, then that will mean more strangleholds on further artificial stimulation of a ‘dead’ economy brought to that state by the doings of the US itself.
If you have money to invest stay away from this infected red herring called US of A. Look to countries such as Brazil, India or if worse comes to worse make a mattress out of your extra cash and do not lose much sleep.
I love it when experts use their expertise to spin events.
O’ I forgot. Do not overlook Canada for your planned portfolio. It is well known historically that when the US sneezes, Canada would catch cold. Not this time however. When the US was shedding jobs in 2008, Canada was hiring and enjoying robust economy, not to mention that its banks received the highest rating in the world when US historically giant financial institutions were going under. All that thanks to Canada’s resource based West and the resource-hungry Asian giants. I was personally involved in a major expansion project of the Vancouver port aimed specifically at connecting the Western provinces to the Pacific basin countries. There are some excellent opportunities in mining, oil sands, gas, coal that are no longer destined to south of the 49 parallel.
You could be right Danny, why should we keep paying equalization payments to central Canada? Isn’t that where TO is? Who wants that? Yak!
2015 to 2020 is the time for the US to throw in the towel.
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 9:43 pmErasmus #183,
These quotes are from The Little Green Book.
BTW are you a faculty member at the Polytechnic of NY?. If so which campus? If you do not want your answers to be visible to the rest of the world then send me a note: wp.karam@gmail.com
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 10:05 pmIts time we invade Canada 🙂
Posted by V | June 1, 2011, 10:17 pm3issa (184):
You understand me correctly. Far too much attention is being paid these days to the squabbling in Syria or to minor internal affairs in Lebanon and not enough focus is being placed on the importance of vigilant resistance. The zionists are not going to voluntarily give up their lust for Arab land and without SHN and his fighters to frighten and intimidate them, Lebanon would have long ago become a suburb of [Israhelli] Haifa.
Posted by dontgetit | June 1, 2011, 10:25 pmThat’s all you guys (V) are good for, right?
You see now why we passed Saddam over to you?
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 10:49 pmdontgetit,
Don’t you see the circularity in that argument. You never need to prove anything if you assume what you are trying to prove.
How can you possibly be serious about this, which I gather you are, and yet oppose the George Bush policy of attacking a country on the basis that you think that it is going to attack you? This is madness.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 10:53 pmThe article that R2D2 linked to was a simple 500 word article about housing.
Production in LCC has been the obvious choice for decades but it was not as feasible since transportation costs were high and since these countries were not truly LCC since their labor productivity was very low.
Once technology spread and labour productivity closed most of the gap then it became irrational to produce in country A when you can get the exact same output in countrty B for half the price. Economic theory has been teaching the principle of “equalization of factor prices” for decades but few took the theory seriously. Actually this theory says that in a frictionless world prices of all factors will become even in the same way that wages and other things tend towards equality within the same country.
There is nothing wrong or scary about outsourcing. It is the best application of efficiency. In the same way that one trades say california wines for Vermont maple syrup so we should trade between different regions of the world.
Posted by Ghassan Karam | June 1, 2011, 11:09 pmIceman,
There’s many millions of people in Toronto. You shouldn’t diss it outright.
In fact, I think you would quite like it over here.
For one, look at this year’s line-up in the Luminato festival:
http://www.luminato.com/2011/1001nights
It’s the world premiere, and it may be worth you making a trip here. Hell, I’ll even take you out on a date to see it!
What’s more. You would feel so comfortable here. There are so many Saudis, who perhaps in the past used to send their kids to school in the US, and prefer Canada nowadays. Toronto seems to be their preferred spot. Many of them are studying to be doctors. You would feel right at home.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 11:12 pmV:
Or maybe you can elect Sarah Drill Baby Drill Palin…
It’s nice to see how eager Saudi-minded people are on resource-based economies. Mining. Drilling. Free Money. Let’s do more destroying our earth.
Posted by Gabriel | June 1, 2011, 11:18 pm“The economy still isn’t producing enough jobs to keep up with the growing workforce. So people are reluctant to become first-time homebuyers because they’ve lost (or fear losing) their jobs, and because they fear further price drops. That means”
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/more_housing_hell_aczDMaSv0hSB9tN2xiRY9J#ixzz1O5MBnNFg
The above quote from the NYT article is saying 4 years after the onset of the housing and financial markets collapse, the US is still not producing jobs.
Whatever the theory says, those jobs have been outsourced by corporate America depriving the US of the benefits. There will be no recovery in the US unless the US starts hiring the millions who are officially unemployed and the other millions who are unemployed but are not in the system.
Compare that situation to the 90s when the US experienced negative unemployment and in fact employed over 30 million so-called ‘aliens’. But then greed took over and presto…. the finnacial system gets deregulated despite the advice to the contrary of the well-intentioned.
Again will revisit in 2015.
Posted by iceman | June 1, 2011, 11:33 pm