There are several conspiracy theories swirling around about the reasons for Wissam al-Hassan’s assassination (and even about whether or not he was even killed in the explosion on Friday…Some are apparently claiming that he was actually killed on the border between Turkey and Syria, and that the explosion last week was a false flag operation meant to pin the crime on Syria. Umm, ok.)
I would like to focus on one particular theory, though, that does not seem too implausible. It concerns the arrest of Michel Samaha, which, as I mentioned in my piece for the NY Times a couple days ago, was rather surreal.
Think about it. A high-profile Lebanese politician is hauled into custody in a spectacular way, with stacks of video and audio evidence demonstrating his involvement in a sinister plot. And unlike the arrest of the four generals for the Hariri assassination in 2005, there was no significant backlash from Samaha’s allies in Lebanon. The evidence assembled by Wissam al-Hassan was clearly so significant that no one — not Hizbullah or Miqati or anyone besides Jamil al-Sayyid — came to his defense. It almost felt as though al-Hassan was daring anyone to defend Samaha just so that he could splash all the dirty details across the headlines.
And yet, for all the evidence mounted against Samaha – including an apparent confession which implicated Bashar al-Assad himself in the plot – something seemed amiss. Why would the Syrian regime have chosen a sixty-four year-old political operative, even one as loyal as Samaha, to be an explosives mule? Had Syrian intelligence fallen on such hard times that it was reduced to conjuring up espionage from individuals with no relevant experience?
On the other hand, perhaps Samaha was the perfect choice — not by Damascus, but by Wissam al-Hassan himself – to lure into a bomb plot along with his Syrian handlers. The whole affair had more than a whiff of entrapment about it, a brilliantly plotted ambush by al-Hassan which Samaha and his overlords unwittingly walked into.
For that matter, Jamil al-Sayyid, who is said to have been in the car with Michel Samaha when he conducted his bomb run, may have similarly been a perfect target for such a sting. Why? Because both al-Sayyid and Samaha are political has-beens, itching to get back into the inner circle. They were once powerful and influential individuals, but today they are bit players on a political stage that has been totally transformed.
A few weeks ago, I recorded an interview for Bloggingheads with my friend Camille Otrakji. When I asked Camille what he thought about the Samaha arrest, he said that some of his contacts in Syria and Lebanon were speculating that Samaha could have been duped into carrying the explosives by a high-ranking member of the Syrian intelligence community who had secretly defected to the opposition. This person would then have tipped off the Lebanese authorities about the “plot”, leading to an arrest that was very damaging to the Syrian regime. (See here for the clip where Camille makes this case).
I have to admit that I found this theory pretty implausible when Camille proposed it, but the more I think about it, the more I feel that it should not be rejected out of hand. Obviously, we’re all just groping around in the dark, but something about the surreal and spectacular quality of the arrest and the amount of evidence that accompanied it (including the confession) seemed strange.
This doesn’t mean that Samaha is innocent. Even Jamil al-Sayyid admits that Samaha “made a mistake” and transferred explosives. What I wonder, however, is at what stage the Information Branch entered the picture. How soon did they get wind of the plot, and what was the mechanism? Could Samaha have been set up from the very beginning (as Camille’s contacts are suggesting)?
It’s important to recognize that even by the high-wire standards of Wissam al-Hassan’s career, such a gambit would have been incredibly dangerous, and out of step with the role he had cultivated for himself as an intermediary between Damascus and Beirut, Hizbullah and Hariri. Whether or not the Samaha affair was a sting operation from the outset, Hassan had to have known that the arrest and the media circus that followed it would have likely burned his bridges with Syria and its allies forever.
Curious to hear people’s thoughts.
Qifa Nabki 
There is definitevely something too easy in the samaha case, not very common in the ISF history. But what if both were set up, samaha and hassan, by jamil el sayyed, the only one who apparently can still talk and act outrageously with no fear…
Posted by Oum | October 24, 2012, 5:53 pmOum,
Spoken like a true Lebanese. 🙂
I love it.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 24, 2012, 5:55 pmFirst off- love the blog! And I love how you always reference “consipracy theories”, because there’s always a truth to them. This theory is very interesting but at the same time the Syrians have been quite obvious with their activities for a while now.. Targeting obvious figures and behaving in predictable ways – why not have their trusty Samaha carry explosives? In a regime as archaic and as angry, it’s quite possible. Assuming it was entrapment, your last point is essential: Hassan knew how badly it would damage his relationship.. But did he think the Syrian regime had gotten too weak for it to matter? Difficult, considering how often he changed locations/his security system. Just doesnt fit!
Posted by Dee | October 24, 2012, 6:16 pmOh dear lord! Not you too, QN! I thought you were one of the more rational minds around here!
What’s the next piece gonna be titled? “Was Wissam Al Hasan behind the assassination of Wissam Al Hasan?” Did he fake his own death now?
I’m telling you guys, we’re only one step removed from Elvis and Bigfoot sightings and Alien abductions. This is getting rather ridiculous.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 24, 2012, 6:27 pmQN:
I think you need to expand on this post.
What do you mean Samaha was “duped” into carrying explosives.
Someone gave him a big bag and said there was candy in it, and lied that the bag in fact carried explosives?
Someone gave him a bag of explosives, and told him it was a bag of explosives, but pretended it was for another purpose?
If that were the case, what did Samaha imagine he was carrying explosives for?
Posted by Gabriel | October 24, 2012, 6:29 pmlooks like the Jackass isnt so dumb after all lol
Posted by Vulcan | October 24, 2012, 6:31 pmSo if we believe your theory; why would anyone take out El Hassan?
Syrians could always give the same crap as Camille did and if our illustrious QN could may be believe it; imagine what Lebanese would.?
Who else do you have on the docket? Yes The Joos did it!
Posted by danny | October 24, 2012, 6:32 pmFrom what I learned in the orange room it is clear that al-Hassan killed himself so he could collect the insurance to support the lavish life style of his family in France. Unfortunately, he didn’t read the small print which says that assassinations are not covered. This will force his family to provide the evidence that this was not an assassination but a suicide and will make M14 look like fools. Oh no, I am becoming Lebanese. I can feel it, I crave lemon in my hummus.
Posted by AIG | October 24, 2012, 6:35 pmAnother aspect that makes this plausible is the question that has puzzled me from the start. Of all the countries in the world, surely Lebanon is the one country you wouldnt need to smuggle explosives INTO.
Posted by mo | October 24, 2012, 6:42 pm…Yes; yes why import explosives when we have the Hizb…
QN I guess you do not believe that Mamlouk was involved and the alleged phone calls/conversations between them is bogus…
I already had declared that Hassan had killed himself to piss off Syria or HA…
Another “plausible” reason why a super professional hit happened to this uber secretive intelligence officer: He owed oodles of dough to the mob. Again don’t piss off the Joos.
Posted by danny | October 24, 2012, 7:05 pmQN,
The point you are not giving enough weight to is the fact that the interests of Assad and Hezbollah are diverging just as the Assad and Hamas interests diverged but to a lesser extent.
While both Assad and Hezbollah want Assad to stay in power, Hezbollah does not want to wreck Lebanon via civil war in order to protect Assad. When Assad suggests acts that destabilize Lebanon, there is push back from Hezbollah. That is why Assad was trying to create other options for destabilization in my opinion and that is why Samha was used. Hezbollah executed the al-Hassan assassination for Syria because they also needed to send a message to M14 that they need to take a step back. But it was not an attack such as the one’s Samha was an accomplice to, attacks directly aimed at flaming sectarian animosities.
As for the Joos, we are responsible for Khartoum which by the way is the about the same distance from Israel as central Iran.
Posted by AIG | October 24, 2012, 7:25 pmGabriel asked: “What do you mean Samaha was “duped” into carrying explosives.”
Samaha knew he was ferrying explosives on behalf of someone in the Syrian government. That much seems indisputable. The questions are the following:
1. If this was a legitimate plot involving the highest level of Syrian intelligence, why use Samaha? And surely there are enough explosives lying around in Lebanon between Syria’s various allies that they wouldn’t need to risk having an ex-minister get caught because he said too much to his driver.
2. How early on was the ISF tipped off? And by whom?
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 24, 2012, 7:44 pmPssssssssssssst QN; here’s some support for the entrapment/set up theory:
http://blog.lefigaro.fr/malbrunot/2012/10/la-famille-de-wissam-el-hassan.html
In the big picture of things. Assad has other things occupying his attention than worrying about the repercussions of some Monty Pythonesque plot involving Samaha. What’s yet ANOTHER tale of Assad’s evil intentions? Just more grist for the mill.
The business about Wissam being killed on the border seems to be linked to the lack of a corpse. Supposedly it was so shredded that not a trace could be found. Identification was made by a shoe and cell phone as I recall. One could assume that the body of his driver/bodyguard suffered a similar fate. Did it?
Were two empty coffins buried at the shrine of Hariri? Or not.
AIG. Israel killed al_Hassan because he was relentless in busting up Israeli espionage cells; 40 at last count. Even Michael Young concedes that there was collaboration between his organization Hezbollah’s intelligence. They were on the same page in that regard.
Posted by lally | October 24, 2012, 7:52 pmQN:
But then why was Samaha in the business of ferrying explosives at all- for whatever purpose. (And no less for someone in the Syrian government).
If as you say, the fact that he was ferrying them was indisputable, what is the point of your questions below?
I dare say, if it really is indisputable that Samaha knew he was ferrying explosives at all, there must exist some reason for him to be doing so.
And so I flip the question back to you. Why did this “someone” in the Syrian government choose a sixty four year old political operative, with no relevant experience in explosives, to be delivery man for said explosives… even if this reason was not related to the “official” Hassan line?
Posted by Gabriel | October 24, 2012, 8:06 pmhmmm the plot gets thicker. if Wissam was killed on the border or inside Syria, who was the Bundesnachrichtendienst meeting with in Berlin? his double?
Posted by Vulcan | October 24, 2012, 8:07 pmThe dominant theory about why al-Hassan was killed is because of the Samaha arrest. It goes like this: Wissam al-Hassan arrested Michel Samaha for playing a role in a Syrian regime plot to destabilize Lebanon, and so the Syrian regime retaliated by killing al-Hassan.
That’s not the point I’m arguing. I’m entirely open to the likelihood that al-Hassan was killed by Syria and/or its allies in Lebanon because of the Samaha arrest.
What I’m simply asking is how and why the Samaha plot emerged in the first place. Here, there are at least two possibilities:
1. Ali Mamluk, Bouthaina Shaaban & company tasked Michel Samaha with ferrying explosives into Lebanon to assassinate leading figures and create havoc. Wissam al-Hassan and the Information Branch caught wind of this plot using wire phone tapping, surveillance, and spies, and promptly arrested Samaha, at which point he confessed everything.
2. Some defector in the regime tasked Michel Samaha with ferrying explosives into Lebanon, and then tipped off the ISF, who promptly arrested Samaha, at which point he confessed everything.
Which of these two possibilities is more likely? From my perspective, they both have some inconsistencies which will need to await further information before being resolved.
Scenario #1 would seem to involve too many non-essential and non-military personnel (like Samaha and Shaaban) to be fully satisfactory. It just doesn’t ring completely true to me that a plot like this would be coordinated by Bashar’s political and media adviser. But I could be wrong.
Scenario #2, on the other hand, does not explain the alleged phone messages between Samaha and Shaaban that apparently show evidence of direct Syrian involvement. So far, all we’ve learned in the press about the Shaaban connection comes from security sources close to the ISF, so we have to take that into account.
Again, I’m not asking who killed Wissam al-Hassan. One could easily imagine that the Syrians killed him even if he framed Michel Samaha from the beginning (which is obviously not true, given the confession). What I’m asking about is the point at which the ISF entered the picture and how they were tipped off.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 24, 2012, 8:09 pmthey were tipped off by the informer who worked for Al Hassan and Samaha approached to facilitate planting the explosives
Posted by Vulcan | October 24, 2012, 8:21 pmGabriel said: “And so I flip the question back to you. Why did this “someone” in the Syrian government choose a sixty four year old political operative, with no relevant experience in explosives, to be delivery man for said explosives… even if this reason was not related to the “official” Hassan line?”
That’s the question that I try to answer with the observation about Samaha’s unsuitability for the job.
IF Samaha was set up in a sting operation involving the ISF and a high-level defector — and I admit that this is a wild speculation, hence the term “conspiracy theory” — then he would have been a suitable candidate PRECISELY because he is a political has-been and someone totally inexperienced when it comes to explosives and espionage.
It would have been impossible to conduct a sting like this on a member of Hizbullah. There’s no way it would have worked, partly because — as AIG pointed out — Hizbullah has its own interests in Lebanon, and carrying out a campaign like the one Samaha was involved in would not have suited these interests. Plus, there’s no way they would have taken the bait, and even if they did and got caught, there’s no way the party would have let their guys hang.
Samaha was a good man for the job (according to this theory) because everyone knows he is close to Bashar and because he is inexperienced and politically isolated. Confronted with evidence of his guilt, he could have been counted on to break down easily and confess his crimes.
Go back and watch Jamil al-Sayyid’s testimony on Nadim Koteich’s show. What he says is very revealing. Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but he seems to be saying: Samaha is a good man who got lured into a brilliant trap.
Who knows.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 24, 2012, 8:22 pmyou mean the Syrian regime retaliated by killing al- Hassan…
[Ed: Yes, thanks Zenobia… Fixed that]
Posted by Zenobia | October 24, 2012, 8:25 pmI think- based on your succinct previous post: This much is clear. al-Hassan is quite a shady figure. Put aside the CBC report, and the possibility it is tainted. It remains true that al-Hassan had his hands on everything. Pro-M14, publicly anti-Syrian, and at the same time, as Lally now reminds us: responsible for cracking all those alleged Israeli “spy-rings”. The same spy-rings which co-incidentally are supposed to have falsified the telephone records pointing back to Hizballah.
So where does Al-Hassan stand? Vanguard of M14 and the anti-Syrian forces? Secret HA operative? Just another figure playing both sides, helping both sides?
Why do you assume the ISF were tipped off? If Al-Hassan heads the ISF, and he’s secretly got all sorts of contacts within the Syrian regime, then maybe he knew all along, and decided to feed the information as needed.
The problem is that it seems however one paints the picture, and in whatever angle one looks at it… somehow the only plausible explanation is that there was Syrian involvement. Your two scenarios differ only somewhat in the level of Syrian involvement (was Buthaina involved, or other figures, or only some peripheral figures)
And Camille’s theory that it was a “defector” that somehow arranged this doesn’t make the story any better for the Syrian regime. After all, it only highlights the fact that Samaha was in fact quite loyal to some Syrian interests, and was willing to go along with some alleged plot that required explosives. That he chanced on getting duped by this defector doesn’t change the basic calculus behind the idea that Syria had some nefarious plan.
Posted by Gabriel | October 24, 2012, 8:30 pm… Or maybe it was Israel :).
Al-Hassan was secretly in touch with Israel, and only played along to crack all those Israeli spy-rings, to bolster his reputation as officially anti-Israeli.
And while the Israelis were busy fomenting strife in Syria, they found “someone” apparently senior enough, and willing to “defect” from the regime. He must have been senior enough- otherwise, why would Samaha have carried the explosives:- he may be an inexperienced novice, but certainly I would not expect him to carry explosives on behalf of some random Abu-3antar.
And so it was that the wily Israelis managed to knock off Samaha.
Then they killed Al-Hassan because he knew too much.
Posted by Gabriel | October 24, 2012, 8:48 pmor maybe Samaha was triple agent… – or maybe the Syrians KNEW he was being duped- but let him be duped…and so although he was supposedly being ‘duped’ by secret defectors – – they (the defectors) were also being duped by the Syrians- who were hoping that Samaha would get caught by Al-Hassan – so that they in turn could seemingly kill Hassan for his actions against Samaha, but ACTUALLY – they have been wanting for many years to knock him off because HE is the one real person who actually knows who killed Rafic Hariri – in connection with the Syrian regime because he was in on it himself.
I think this makes the most sense.
Posted by Zenobia | October 24, 2012, 9:33 pmI can feel it, I crave more garlic in my hummus.
Posted by Zenobia | October 24, 2012, 9:35 pmWhat if all three were set up by QN, so that he would get to write a nice, juicy blog entry about it?
Posted by samadamsthedog | October 24, 2012, 9:57 pm“Samaha was much too clever to let himself embark on such an operation”, said an agent, who rather privileged track handling by the service of Wissam el-Hassan. It is not the first time that it dipped into such mounting: after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the ISPs (that of w. el-Hassan) service had already manufactures a fake witness a charge against Damascus, in the person of Zouheir Ziddiq, with the collaboration of other services in the region, which are found today as accidentally engaged in the fight to topple Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.”
http://blog.lefigaro.fr/malbrunot/2012/10/la-famille-de-wissam-el-hassan.html
Samaha was both an Einstein and a Jackass.
Even in jest, Gaby, it’s rather disrespectful to the dear Israeli cousins to even suggest that they would dream up such an idiotic scenario as is Operation Grandpa Samaha.
They take their covert business in the Levant very seriously. The serial disruptions of the Lebanese intelligence networks tasked with tracking their most feared enemies was devastating and humiliating. That US-supplied technology could be involved was an issue on The Hill for Congressmen tasked with oversight.
But all in the spirit of fun, let’s speculate that Wissam also knew about and/or was complicit in the launching of the drone that supposedly incorporated stealth technology in order to evade the eyes guarding Israeli skies. That, along with his successful efforts to protect Lebanon’s sovereignty could mark a man for death.
Posted by lally | October 24, 2012, 10:34 pmNow we’re getting closer to the truth…
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 24, 2012, 10:35 pmI disagree with Malbrunot’s proposal that the Samaha case is a matter of fabricated evidence. Samaha confessed to the crime, Jamil al-Sayyid confirmed it, Hizbullah did not deny it, and plenty of other “neutral” observers like Sleiman and Miqati also confirmed it as true.
I’m not trying to suggest that Wissam al-Hassan framed Michel Samaha. That’s impossible given what we already know.
What is possible (but not proven) is that the ISF engaged in something akin to entrapment. On the other hand, it could simply be excellent detective work.
We have to wait and see.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 24, 2012, 10:54 pmOne theory that I don’t really subscribe to but want to see challenged:
On a visit to Damascus, Samaha is given evidence by Assad’s inner circle that elements within M14 (maybe even WaH) are actively supporting the revolution in Syria. As a supporter of the Syrian regime (which he supports by default as he is of the opinion that the KSA-backed wahhabis must not be allowed to take over the region – who can blame him), he agrees to carry stuff back to Lebanon. The fact that Samaha actually imports the stuff instead of sourcing it locally, and that he does so himself proves 2 things: 1) That the Syrian regime knows that the HA leadership is not willing to become involved 2) That the Syrian regime does not trust its network of operatives in Lebanon anymore, and therefore has to rely on Samaha, an old chum. The stuff is intended to disrupt the operations of pro-syrian factions in Lebanon. Now is that illegal? Most likely, you don’t just go plant bombs against your enemies’ enemies, especially in your own country. But then again, what about the Qatari and KSA flights allegedly coming in with stuff for the rebels? Fight fire with fire. In the end Samaha gets caught via Kfouri. Did Syria have some nefarious plan? They’d say it was just a matter of survival. Show me a country that wouldn’t want to undermine an armed opposition operating from a neighboring country. According to this theory, Samaha would have acted out of ideology, for his own vision of the “greater good”.
Note that if the above theory held (especially the part of Syria having to rely on amateurs), then according to the same logic Syria would not be behind the Achrafiyeh bombing.
Posted by nicolas | October 25, 2012, 1:57 amTo be honest, whether or not he was set-up is not my biggest question. I am sure Syria asks its allies to do a lot of things on its behalf. Is this an unusual request? Samaha did not seem to have a problem with killing his own countrymen and possibly causing a civil war.
Posted by Patrick | October 25, 2012, 2:16 amThere’s something I don’t buy in the Samaha case, the difference of organisation and the goal. If the Syrians are capable of tracking Wissam Al-Hassan and overcoming huge obstacles only intel pros can do, why didn’t they use them instead of Michel Samaha ? Why did the pro ones that did the Achrafieh explosion didn’t do what Samaha was supposed to do? Concerning the goal, Samaha’s plot was supposed to make the Lebanese pro M8. Al Hassan’s assassination practically made the opposite. And didn’t the Syrians know that because of their experience with the Hariri Assassination?
The similarity between the Tueni Assassination and Al Hassan’s one and the absence of Al-Hassan in the convoi the day Hariri died only makes things more confusing.
Great post, fachaytelle khel2e! :p
Posted by MT | October 25, 2012, 2:37 amWhen it comes to Leb, you can’t trust your own judgement. :^)
I think Israel is out of this. Not their style, blowing up a neighborhood to get one guy. Yeah, yeah, I know they are no angels, do not bother posting on that, but still not their style for many reasons. To mention one, look in Iran they are picking off nuke scientists one-by-one.
The other stuff is too convoluted for me to fathom, even with a maxi-dose of hummus and garlic.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, Herr Doktor Freud.
The Hassan killing looks, feels, and smells like a Syrian thing. Why? To signal to all in Leb, big and small, starting with Suleiman and Mikati and even Berri, don’t even think of venturing outside the reservation. As a bonus the message is also: no going after our guys like Samaha (who got into this for whatever reason).
For Hezbollah, if involved tangentially or otherwise, similar mssg to their enemies, getting rid and/or weakening only agency outside their control (for now and later), pressuring/killing efforts to go after them in the Hariri thing.
These are the only elements that make sense, and fit a known observable pattern that goes back years. One thing it may show, is that Assad and his people are as delusional as ever, thinking the same old methods still apply, and that the 1980s and 90s are coming back.
Posted by OldHand | October 25, 2012, 3:08 amInspector Clouseau would be so proud of us all here
Posted by Vulcan | October 25, 2012, 3:18 amDr Strangelove would be the proudest of them all.
Aren’t the French professionals as cited the skeptics who are linking Wissam & Colluders to the Syrian productions? They would know.
There’s no reason to doubt that Samaha sincerely believed that he was specially tapped for this essential mission. His recruiter is a convincing someone with impeccable credentials; The closeted defector? Entrapment 101. Things begin to fall apart when contemplating the hopeless implausibilities of implementing the plans as scripted.
Posted by lally | October 25, 2012, 3:38 amSemaha did not mention any esoteric defectors, only heads of the regime. And then you’re suggesting that those behind the plot (Hassan & al), plotted the explosion in Ashrafiyeh to cover for his “death at the border”, a supposed death that could have been reported regularly. I’m sorry Elias but the whole thing is too far-fetched and incosistent..
Posted by Raafat's AlterEgo | October 25, 2012, 3:43 amQN,
I don’t understand why you’re ignoring the ISF’s own narrative that Kfouri tipped them off to the plot. Neither the ISF nor anyone else claimed they discovered via detective or intelligence work.
The leaks from the ISF indicate that Kfouri told the Information Branch about the plot as soon as Samaha approached him. I guess you can speculate on whether it was really Samaha who approached Kfouri or Kfouri who approached Samaha. But the three recorded conversations between Samaha and Kfouri, the transcripts of which the ISF leaked, were done under the supervision of the ISF (Kfouri was their informant at this point).
Wissam Al Hassan could have set it up without Syrian help, by sending out Kfouri to recruit Samaha, and then rely on Samaha to get the Syrian security services to support the plan. I think that’s a more plausible entrapment theory.
Personally I don’t find any of the narratives convincing. There is something unbelievable about all of them.
Posted by RedLeb | October 25, 2012, 4:18 amI smell camembert
Posted by nadim shehadi | October 25, 2012, 4:23 amElias you achieved it after all! Getting all the conspiracy minded Lebanese to contribute collectively to a Qnion piece! How masterful!!
Posted by danny | October 25, 2012, 6:33 amRaafat,
You’ve misread the post. I explicitly dismiss the silly notion that al-Hassan was killed anywhere but Achrafieh.
Redleb
What you’re describing is a through-and-through entrapment scenario. Possible, but as you point out, also problematic.
To everyone else:
Chill out. I’m not claiming that Samaha wasn’t guilty of conspiring to kill Lebanese using Syrian regime help. Nor am I claiming that Wissam al-Hassan framed him. I’m simply trying to figure out a scenario where all of the very strange aspects of this case begin to make sense.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 25, 2012, 8:15 amQN,
Are you voting Romney or Obama?
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 25, 2012, 8:47 amMy vote doesn’t count.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 25, 2012, 9:14 amQN,
Good. We need to keep Obama to 1 term.;)
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 25, 2012, 10:46 ameverything is possible but the truth is, we will never know. So you stop caring about the ‘who behind the what and why’ at some point, even when you’re a rational, honest, active citizen seeking something better for Lebanon and its neighbours.
Posted by fady | October 25, 2012, 11:23 amQN,
Under fire, some people are cool and determined, others go into shell shock or do stupid things. It is impossible to know in advance. The Samha plot was probably hatched after the bombing of the Assad inner circle. It smells of panic, because there was panic. It is stupid because the regime does stupid things, for example, torture the kids in Deraa. Or assume in January 2011 that the Arab Spring will never come to Syria (the famous Assad interview). The regime is not monolithic and as the civil war progressed, it had to become less centralized also and allow decisions to be made “where the action is”. I don’t find what happened mysterious at all, governments make huge mistakes all the time.
I am sure you read Tuchman’s “The March of Folly”.
http://www.amazon.com/The-March-Folly-From-Vietnam/dp/0345308239/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1351179353&sr=8-4&keywords=barbara+tuchman
That is the lens this should be viewed through.
Posted by AIG | October 25, 2012, 11:40 amLally:
Your alternate Israel scenario simply means Samaha wasn’t part of the calculation, and this bombing was completely unrelated.
QN:
Nefarious though he may be, you take a look at Samaha, and he appears to be a friendly grandpa from your friendly 7ara!
Posted by Gabriel | October 25, 2012, 11:56 amAP..
Why so eager to get Obama out? Didn’t you watch the foreign policy debate? Obama was quite eager to tell the world how much he loves Israel.
Posted by Gabriel | October 25, 2012, 11:57 amAIG
I agree that this is one of the possible readings, and maybe the most probable one given the current state of the regime.
Certainly, if we accept the Samaha confession as truthful and the telephone conversations with Kfoury as legitimate (and I have no reason to believe they aren’t), then there is absolutely no doubt that the regime was aware of the plot, funded the operators, and provided them with the explosives.
The only question I’m asking is how the whole thing emerged in the first place and what the ISF role was. If you read the confession transcript (which I’m in the process of translating and will post it soon), this is somewhat ambiguous. At times it seems as though the order is coming from the top down, and at other times it seems that the initiative came from the informant.
In all cases, Samaha agreed to the plot and so did Ali Mamluk. But if the initiative came from someone who ended up being an ISF informant, this raises the question of whether Samaha and the Syrian regime were baited into a plot by al-Hassan. Which is an amazing thing, if you think about it.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 25, 2012, 12:06 pmhttp://english.al-akhbar.com/content/achrafieh-bombing-lines-inquiry
Al-Akhbar has a very talkative friend inside the judiciary investigating the case. I wonder how much of the “cherchez la femme” line of inquiry is a matter of trashing the victim’s reputation. The speculations will soon boil over the identity of “la femme”-journalist whom, says Al-Akhbar, was a source of information for Al Hassan, and not the other way around.
Posted by mj | October 25, 2012, 12:07 pmNot so amazing.
But would be quite telling. It means that al-Hassan must have given very good reason to the regime to trust him, and adds credence to the CBC report.
Now if we are exploring other options, is it possible that Samaha lied for one reason or another on his confession/culpability? Could he be covering something?
Posted by Gabriel | October 25, 2012, 12:47 pmObama’s Last Two Months in Office NewZ
Why so eager to get Obama out? Didn’t you watch the foreign policy debate? Obama was quite eager to tell the world how much he loves Israel.
Gabriel,
Actions speak louder than words.
BTW – I predict the majority of Jewish-Americans will vote Obama.
OK, now a few questions:
Samaha, was determined to have brought explosive material into Lebanon from Syria in order to bomb someone/something??
The person/organization that caught/arrested him was the fellow who was assassinated last week, right?
Doesn’t it seem fairly simple to put the pieces of the puzzle together and draw a conclusion?
Retribution for arresting Samaha by those that provided Samaha his weapons/material??
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 25, 2012, 1:14 pmSorry. A bit late, still answering comments from QN above:
It would have been impossible to conduct a sting like this on a member of Hizbullah. There’s no way it would have worked, partly because — as AIG pointed out — Hizbullah has its own interests in Lebanon, and carrying out a campaign like the one Samaha was involved in would not have suited these interests. Plus, there’s no way they would have taken the bait, and even if they did and got caught, there’s no way the party would have let their guys hang.
Samaha was a good man for the job (according to this theory) because everyone knows he is close to Bashar and because he is inexperienced and politically isolated. Confronted with evidence of his guilt, he could have been counted on to break down easily and confess his crimes.
Go back and watch Jamil al-Sayyid’s testimony on Nadim Koteich’s show. What he says is very revealing. Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but he seems to be saying: Samaha is a good man who got lured into a brilliant trap.
But that’s just it, some of this stuff makes no sense!
You say an HA operative would have never taken the bait. True.
But why on earth would Samaha take the bait? What would HIS motivation be? (regardless of who asked him to ferry explosives).
I mean, would you ferry explosives into Lebanon if some random guy asked you to? (regardless of whether it’s a trap or not). The only way Samaha bothers with something as lame as this, in person, is if he has no other choice (read, he is instructed to do so by someone he cannot say no to).
Otherwise, trap or no trap, none of this makes sense.
In a different comment, you go on to say:
1. Ali Mamluk, Bouthaina Shaaban & company tasked Michel Samaha with ferrying explosives into Lebanon to assassinate leading figures and create havoc. Wissam al-Hassan and the Information Branch caught wind of this plot using wire phone tapping, surveillance, and spies, and promptly arrested Samaha, at which point he confessed everything.
2. Some defector in the regime tasked Michel Samaha with ferrying explosives into Lebanon, and then tipped off the ISF, who promptly arrested Samaha, at which point he confessed everything.
Which of these two possibilities is more likely? From my perspective, they both have some inconsistencies which will need to await further information before being resolved.
But you also later say that there is evidence of phone calls with Shaaban and Ali Mamlouk. Doesn’t that automatically invalidate option 2? If the evidence is indisputable about those phone calls, then there really isn’t anything to discuss here. No? Why talk about “random defectors” when we can hear/see exactly who called Samaha? And furthermore, how could it possibly be a setup if someone as high placed as Shaaban or Mamluk are involved? Neither of those 2 are likely to take orders from Wissam Al Hasan or anyone else trying to manipulate them.
How does that even work? Al Hasan or someone answering to him calls Shaaban and goes “Hey, you know what Buthaina? I think it would be a great idea if you tried to destabilize the north by blowing up some stuff…Cause you probably didn’t think of this idea on your own…Oh and by the way, I happen to know that Michel Samaha has some room in his Mercedes, so perhaps you should get him to mule the explosives for you…(Cause you Syrian guys have no other ways of getting shit into Lebanon!)”.
Is there anything in that conversation that rings plausible????
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 1:15 pmOldHand says:
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, Herr Doktor Freud.
The Hassan killing looks, feels, and smells like a Syrian thing. Why? To signal to all in Leb, big and small, starting with Suleiman and Mikati and even Berri, don’t even think of venturing outside the reservation. As a bonus the message is also: no going after our guys like Samaha (who got into this for whatever reason).
For Hezbollah, if involved tangentially or otherwise, similar mssg to their enemies, getting rid and/or weakening only agency outside their control (for now and later), pressuring/killing efforts to go after them in the Hariri thing.
These are the only elements that make sense, and fit a known observable pattern that goes back years. One thing it may show, is that Assad and his people are as delusional as ever, thinking the same old methods still apply, and that the 1980s and 90s are coming back.
This is precisely what I’ve been saying as well. Occam’s razor + Obvious benefits to HA and the Assad regime (weakening ISF) + observable pattern going back to the 70s and 80s.
None of these other theories I’ve read so far come close to this most simple of explanations.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 1:24 pmOne more:
Chill out. I’m not claiming that Samaha wasn’t guilty of conspiring to kill Lebanese using Syrian regime help. Nor am I claiming that Wissam al-Hassan framed him. I’m simply trying to figure out a scenario where all of the very strange aspects of this case begin to make sense.
You are saying it yourself though:
If you’re not claiming that Samaha isn’t guilty.
And you’re not claiming that WAH framed him.
Then what is there to wonder about? As OldHand said: A cigar is just a cigar.
Samaha is guilty (I think 99% agree on this). WAH did not frame him (I can’t picture a scenario where this makes sense).
What more is there to answer?
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 1:30 pmSomething interesting just occured to me.
Do you guys recall, some few years back, several incidents (alleged) where various pro-Syrian figures (Wiam Wahhab was one, if I recall) caused a stir at the border crossing between Lebanon and Syria, with some alleging they were transporting weapons or explosives in their cars?
I’d have to dig through the archives to find the exact claims, but I think it was something to the effect that Wahhab’s car was stopped at the border by the Army or ISF, or that he refused to stop and drove through, and there was talk about maybe there being explosives in one of his cars, etc…
Anyone else remember that?
The reason I bring this up:
Maybe our questioning of why someone like Samaha would be tasked to carrying weapons or explosives is really unfounded. We just assume that ex-ministers do not typically do this kind of grunt work.
But what if they do?
What if Syria has used this approach all along (there seems to be evidence to this) over the years. Deeming it easiest to ferry illicit or nefarious materiel into Lebanon in these “VIP convoys” (which we all know never get searched or stopped in Lebanon)?
Is this yet another indication that we’re just seeing “previous patterns” and nothing new here? It’s just that this time, there is video/audio evidence to something that’s been going on for years!
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 1:39 pmBV,
The Syrians can make Samha “an offer he cannot refuse” while they can’t do that to Hezbollah. They probably also gave Samha some money.
Posted by AIG | October 25, 2012, 1:40 pmA quick google search found the following (dates to 2007):
Wahhab suspected of arms smuggling
September 11, 2007
Well-informed sources told NOW Lebanon that shortly before midnight on Monday, September 10, Wiam Wahhab’s three-car convoy returning to Lebanon from Syria aroused the suspicions of customs officials at the Lebanese-Syrian border checkpoint.
Observing that one of Wahhab’s cars appeared to be heavily loaded down, almost dragging on the ground, customs officials grew suspicious that the vehicle might be carrying illegal weapons and asked to inspect it.
Wahhab refused, and threatened that his bodyguards would open fire on anyone who tried to approach the vehicle and turn the checkpoint area into a “sea of blood.” He also insulted the Lebanese government and Security Services.
Customs officials eventually let the convoy through uninspected. An investigation has since been opened into the incident, examining both Wahhab and why the convoy was permitted to pass without being searched.
If you ask me…All signs indicate Samaha is not the first or last Lebanese politician to ferry illicit stuff from Syria to Lebanon. In fact, I have to wonder if Samaha might have done this many times before himself.
There is almost a nonchalance to the fact that he’d be asked now to carry explosives, unless, of course, this was common practice already.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 1:43 pmAll very good points by BV and co. Will respond later, as my real job beckons.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 25, 2012, 1:51 pmExcept to say this:
There is a difference between framing someone and entrapping them.
Posted by Qifa Nabki | October 25, 2012, 1:53 pmFraming or Entraping. Irrelevant to the point I was making.
I don’t think it’s either.
I think it has been “normal” behavior for our politicians to ferry explosives and weapons on Assad’s orders. I have now documented “past history” (to use the legal term) using the Wahhab story.
This puts the rest the conspiracy theories of why Samaha got suckered into this in the first place, or why Assad’s regime would have interest in using VIPs for such menial tasks. It’s easy. They’ve been doing it for years.
Once you you accept that, then there is no more entrapment or framing scenario.
It just happened that the ISF got wind of this particular weapon run and WAH decided to act on it (For whatever motives, political or otherwise that he might have had).
I have no doubt that someone in WAH’s position (and anyone else well placed in the political and intelligence circles) have probably known for years that certain politicians have been used to ferry weapons across the borders, just like it has been known for years that certain groups are tools for “starting trouble” when the Assad regime wishes it, for whatever reason at the time (The SSNP, the Arab Democratic Party, The PFLP-GC, Wahhab, Kanso, etc.)
I’m fairly sure it is well known in both M8 and M14 intelligence circles which individuals are used for what’s been coined as “Using Lebanon as a mailbox” in recent years. I’m guessing the Samaha case should be taken in this context.
It could very well be that this was business as usual for Samaha. And that WAH decided to score a point for whatever reason at that time (no different than the sudden interest in the HA-affiliated guy (Safa?) who ran airport security back in 2007, for example).
These guys, from both sides, like to send each other “messages”. But I suspect none of this stuff is new really. I think both sides know exactly what kind of nefarious crap the others are up to (at least in large part).
It’s pretty common in Lebanon to hear “Everyone knows that so and so does this or that”.
Kind of like how everyone knew that the Airport was under HA control (including cameras and whatnot), but no one saw it fit to point out until there was a political decision by Jumblatt et co. at the time to make it an issue in 2007.
Or how everyone knows that so and so is a drug dealer, or weapons dealer. And everyone knows that so and so is protected by so and so and can do whatever they want, etc…
I think there really isn’t much more to this affair. Samaha just got caught doing what he’s probably done many times before, being a “mailbox” because someone (WAH or someone in M14?) decided to score a point against Assad.
Assad in turn, decided to score a point against that someone by offing WAH.
Pretty darn freaking simple…
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 2:51 pmNo one seems to wonder how ISF got samaha’s phone conversations while he was in syria. Since he was using a syrian network, only the syrians could have obtained the taps from lawful interception. Or did ISF have someone at syriacell? Either way, someone was tapping his line, syria or isf. Meaning they were on to something…
Posted by nicolas | October 25, 2012, 3:08 pmSamaha’s phone records all his conversations with anyone
Posted by Vulcan | October 25, 2012, 3:50 pmIn retrospect, that’s probably a dumb thing to do, huh? 🙂
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 4:12 pmSo Samaha records all his conversations with anyone, and goes ahead conspiring over the phone with his syrian friends?? Guys come one, something’s not right. The man’s not that stupid.
Posted by nicolas | October 25, 2012, 5:09 pmWell…Maybe he is. More likely, he thought he was untouchable. Powerful people who think themselves untouchable do very stupid things (that normal people like you and I would find ridiculous).
Like, oh, for example, driving through a border crossing with a car that is so clearly weighed down, it’s back is dragging to the ground. (See Wahhab story above).
What is your alternate suggestion? Samaha’s voice is ON THE RECORD! You gonna tell me someone fabricated a recording of his voice like they do in the movies? Because you are unwilling to believe the simple explanation that he recorded his phone conversations?
Nixon taped his phone conversations too. And he was certainly not stupid either.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 5:29 pmIt’s like some people want to find any possible way to refute the most simple of explanations.
Problem is, the logic doesn’t hold up.
– Samaha is not the kind of lacky that carries explosives in his car. Guess what. Apparently, former ministers and VIPs have done this kind of thing in the past (Wahhab story). Argument refuted!
– Samaha is not dumb enough to have his phone conversations recorded. I’ll just repeat that Nixon did the same. As have countless other politicians. Argument refuted!
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 25, 2012, 5:46 pmI’m a little out of the loop. Have those voice recordings,videos, whatever ever been made public?
Posted by Gabriel | October 25, 2012, 6:24 pmI do have to say… the poor guy does at least “look” genial. He doesn’t look the part. Shouldn’t that count for something.
Posted by Gabriel | October 25, 2012, 6:30 pmBut AP…
Obama went to visit the Holocaust museum in Israel… so that he makes sure that he himself doesn’t forget.
Cut the chap some slack will you! He went on his own personal time on a pilgrimage to Israel!
Posted by Gabriel | October 25, 2012, 6:32 pmNicolas:
The Jews infiltrated the Syrian telephone networks as well 😀
Posted by Gabriel | October 25, 2012, 8:33 pmDunno the story behind his conversations in Syria, but if you can get the President’s emails then I’m sure you can get phone recordings as well.
Posted by Pas Cool | October 26, 2012, 2:37 amBut AP…
Obama went to visit the Holocaust museum in Israel… so that he makes sure that he himself doesn’t forget.
Cut the chap some slack will you! He went on his own personal time on a pilgrimage to Israel!
Gabriel,
Just so you know, Obama didn’t even make 1 trip to Israel since he bacame President of the US:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_trips_made_by_Barack_Obama
He also has a habit of ignoring the Israeli Prime Minister, unless he/she is on the Left…
So while Obama apologizes to the Arab world, and while Hilary Clinton praises Bashar el-Assad, and while Obama preaches humanitarianism defeating Colonel “Sunglasses” of Libya, I say boot these a-holes from the White House!
Sorry for the right-wing emotional outburst…
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 26, 2012, 8:50 amAP…
I’m just quoting what the lad said in the debates. He said he took a personal trip. So he can personally connect with the Jews on a personal level.
Are you saying he lied, and never traveled to Israel?
Posted by Gabriel | October 26, 2012, 10:34 amGabriel may be Obama had visited Israel on a “personal” trip before he became president. That’s not lying. Right? Like 2007 when he was a senator. Now stick to the topic and discuss why old men can not be terrorists!! 😀
Posted by danny | October 26, 2012, 12:24 pmdanny.
Sorry to bust up your fantasy, but inexperienced, high profile soft old guys aren’t picked to carry out covert terrist missions for damn good reasons. Other than in scripts for FBI style stings, PR firm concotions or comedic teevee shows & films, that is.
Gaby.
No, I don’t see any logical cause-and-effect between the arrest and the killing. Sorry, but the whole nonsense surrounding Samaha does not rise to a credible threat to the survival/security of the Syrian ruler; in these desperate times of utmost peril for the Assad regime, it’s a petty distraction. Yet somehow, the calculation is that Assad takes the time out to order the also-under-threat Hezbollah to make matters infinitely worse for themselves, too, by eliminating Wissam because he arrested Gramps?
Uh huh. That’s some cui bono scenario.
Not to mention that there is yet a forensic case to be made to back up the political pronouncements of guilt.
Posted by lally | October 26, 2012, 2:05 pmDanny,
I didn’t say the chap wasn’t a terrorist. Only that he has a kindly face. A nice face. Some people have menacing faces- like in mugshots of rapists- or Saddam Hussein. They look like thugs.
Samaha doesn’t look like a thug. That’s all I’m saying
Posted by Gabriel | October 26, 2012, 2:11 pmLally…
Which brings me to the point. Either Wissam was killed because of the Samaha case, or he wasn’t.
If he wasn’t killed because of the Samaha case, then there is no point to Elias’s original post about entrapment. That would be a peripheral and irrelevant point. We would then conclude that- yes Samaha may have been carrying explosives, for some yet unexplained reasons, and given that he found the time to not play with his grandchildren to bring in some explosives, we would conclude he was just a bad bad man.
And so the floor opens for other reasons why Wissam was killed. And so far, no one has put forth interesting theories on that front.
Posted by Gabriel | October 26, 2012, 2:19 pmLally: re your comment to Danny
Are you suggesting that Samaha wasn’t caught with explosives in his car? That the whole story has been concocted? And the “admission”, also false and concocted?
Posted by Gabriel | October 26, 2012, 2:22 pmGabriel, Danny,
I think what Lally is suggesting is that the bombing couldn’t have been planned by Assad or Hezbollah, because arabs never kill arabs.
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 26, 2012, 3:04 pmlallly,
Lebanese have been listening to this ole crap for years:
”
“It is not Bashar’s or HA way”…”It is not the way they operate” …” oe like you articulated so beautifully when you said:
” Sorry, but the whole nonsense surrounding Samaha does not rise to a credible threat to the survival/security of the Syrian ruler; in these desperate times of utmost peril for the Assad regime, it’s a petty distraction. Yet somehow, the calculation is that Assad takes the time out to order the also-under-threat Hezbollah to make matters infinitely worse for themselves, too, by eliminating Wissam because he arrested Gramps? ”
Yes we have not seen kids strapped with explosives sent out to suicide missions. No old folks transporting contraband…Nope! The HA camp says it is not their “way”!!
Yup; it was not Bashar who threatened to burn the entire Middle East…It is NOT Bashar bombing his own citizens to kingdom come…It is not HA who invaded Beirut and killed indiscriminately. Yes we believe those masterful criminal gangs and families go by the code of honor. We all love Godfather!!
Posted by danny | October 26, 2012, 4:09 pm“Cui bono” analysis is for idiots. When you find poop on your carpet, you blame your dog not the carpet dry cleaners that benefited.
Posted by AIG | October 26, 2012, 4:10 pmGaby,
All these killings in Lebanon in the past decades (let’s add Ghazi Kanaan…What the hell); have been suicides! Although in Ghazi’s case it took two bullets . 😀
Posted by danny | October 26, 2012, 4:11 pmAIG:
Unless the dry-cleaners slipped in and gave the dog some laxatives!
Posted by Gabriel | October 26, 2012, 4:16 pm…and lally;
I believe it was HA who killed WAH with the consent of Bashar and urging of Iran. I believe HA is complicit if not completely in charge of all the assassinations that have happened in Lebanon at least from 2005 February 14TH. As Syria crumbles HA had to take out one head of the security apparatus who they could not control. Samaha’s embarrassment gave them the added impetus.
Posted by danny | October 26, 2012, 4:21 pmDanny,
I think the WAH angle is a lot more complex. Maybe HA couldn’t ultimately control him, but it seems more and more clear as the little bits of pieces come together, that WAH must have had some relationship with them, and the Syrians.
I’m not entirely sure it was not a positive one.
Posted by Gabriel | October 26, 2012, 4:25 pmGabriel,
As an intelligence officer; I am sure WAH dipped into the other side’s pie from time to time. After all spies have their code as well as terrorists (See HA). However; I think as Syrian side is collapsing slowly it is more of a firming up the home front by HA/Iran to confront the upcoming days and months ahead.
Posted by danny | October 26, 2012, 4:52 pmDid you folks read my “analysis” ?? Hehe.
Seriously. Lally. What planet are you living on. “Not their style”?
It’s exactly Syria’s style. I even gave you concrete example of precedent.
Old men do not get asked to carry explosives? Not old men like my grandpa or yours, probably. Agreed.
But “Lebanese Politicians” is a whole different matter. Old and young. They are of a different breed than your average grandpa. Again, I point you to the Wahhab incident. And I’m sure that isn’t the only one. These guys are thugs and have been thugs for the best of the past 30 years or more. You honestly do not believe them capable of carrying explosives? I’ve argued that there is precedent and that it’s been documented in the past. You don’t think warlord thug types like Berri, Jumblat, Geagea, carried illicit stuff back during the heyday of the civil war? Heck, Geagea actually participated in the infamous Zgharta raid. You don’t think in a culture of impunity and thuggery that any of these guys is incapable of dealing with explosives? I have a couple of beachfront properties to sell you in Baalbek, man!
I’ve offered past behavior and patterns. I’ve offered precedent. I’ve offered reasonable motive and MO (that conforms what we’ve all seen in person if we’ve spent any number of years in Lebanon).
You’ve only offered “Old men don’t carry explosives” as a rebuttal. Weak. Sorry. That’s not gonna cut it.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 26, 2012, 5:06 pmDanny,
I think for years, the “other” side- whatever that means, has been positing ideas that required a bit of a stretch of the imagination.
After Hariri, and the CBC investigation:- it was the arrest of various “spy-rings” that apparently were so advanced, they were able to alter all sorts of telecom data. To this day, we have yet to be told of the mechanics of the alteration.
At that time, the report said that WAH was involved. He was conveniently taking an exam at the time, etc. etc.
Then you had the “false” witnesses. More dust thrown in. Who were they? What’s their story. Some chap called Hussam Hussam or something like that ended up being a “false” witness who testified against Syria, but then conveniently he was back in Syria.
The nay-sayers and loud proponents of the “false witness” story never thought this whole thing bizarre:- that a false witness against Syria, instrumental to the withdrawal of Syria militarily from Lebanon was somehow back in Damascus.
Now we have this story, and we have Elias, and apparently our dear friend Alex discussing the possibility that Alex’s “sources” in Syria have indicated that a “defector” from the regime (meaning he was part of the regime before) worked with this very WAH to ensnare and entrap Michel Samaha. The idea of course is that it wasn’t the regime, per se, that set up Samaha… but conveniently a chap who was with the regime, but is now a “defector”. So they now blame the “defector” for the shenanigans. And ironically, they managed to make WAH complicit.
There are some basic conclusions one can draw from following the logic of someone like Alex. First, WAH was not just a spy who dips in all sorts of pies. The regime in Syria is undoubtedly properly controlled, and I would assume that if WAH and some “defector” hatched a plan together, then WAH had to be somewhat trusted enough by the regime. He is vocally after all, so very anti-Syrian and pro-M14! So the back story is obviously a lot more complex than this.
This double-agent and triple-agent Bond-material story telling requires much suspension of belief. It betrays the very complex workings of all sorts of people in position of power, but beneath it, I think, we can draw some reasonable conclusions (if we were to follow Alex’s thinking):
1) That WAH obviously had secretly good relations with the regime can no longer be doubted.
2) That is not to say the regime trusted him, but that they trusted him enough that he managed to have good relations with people, so much so, that he was able to find a “defector” among them.
3) That it is entirely possible there was truth to the CBC report, and that WAH was involved in the killing of Hariri.
4) Since Samaha was buddy-buddy with Syria, he must have at least “thought” he was doing the regime some favor by carrying explosives for them.
5) The fact that Samaha (who to some extent represents the “it’s not their style” crowd) actually went along with this plan (although he didn’t know he was being entrapped by the naughty defector)… means that all those naysayers and “it’s not Syria’s style” are high on something.
In their attempt to deflect responsibility or justify the events, the best they could do is come up with a scenario that necessitate all of the above to be true, and ironically make Syria looks ever more complicit.
Unless of course, Samaha was Einstein. That he was never really Pro-Syria after all. That maybe he was ferrying these weapons to give to the FSA!
Posted by Gabriel | October 26, 2012, 5:40 pmI’ve always maintained that when these scenarios start contradicting themselves that obviously, then trying to force a square peg into a round hole is moot.
It’s called rational thinking, logic, scientific thinking, critical thinking, etc. It’s the basis of modern thinking. And if we can’t even abide by those, then as I keep saying…time to start talking about magical forces, alien abductions and pseudo-otherworldy phenomena here.
Might as well say WAH was killed by a Ghazzi Kanaan from a parallel alternate universe and that the guy that was taped agreeing to carry explosives across the border was in fact a clone of Michel Samaha, bred in a Tel Aviv laboratory by Verner Von Braun’s evil twin.
Suspension of disbelief indeed.
I think I do LESS suspending when I’m watching old Star Trek reruns than when I read some of the posts on this blog.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 26, 2012, 6:05 pmSamaha does not look thugg-y enough. Lol. He doesn’t match the Hollywood Arab stereotype of the dark, mustachioed, and angle-browed dodge.
Why is everyone surprised that WAH had dealings with Syria/HA. How could he not? If he was so upfront about his position vis-a-vis Syria/HA, he would not have survived up until a week ago. The Samaha case was his open letter to his excellency in Damascus.
Remember kids, open defiance to the regime equals liquidation, it’s that simple. They tried telling you in many ways, but you just wouldn’t listen. Remember uncle Rafic, he was tireless in defending HA on the international scene and marketing Damascus to the Europeans right before his unfortunate end, where he was becoming more and more defiant to the very people he assisted. He crossed that point of no return…Defiance….openly….uh-uh-uh, no-no-no-no. Remember khaloo Samir, he wrote some nasty stuff about the regime, even more so right before his death [ “co-incidentally” Jamil al Sayed and co were tailgating him everywhere he went, even stopped him at the airport for “passport” issues]. Poor old Uncle Wissam, he helped the regime and HA with some stuff, he was good at what he did, they didn’t mind his preferences as long as he didn’t come anywhere near them….and then Uncle Wissam did a big big mistake, he openly challenged the regime…again… Defiance…openly! They were so stunned, there was nothing but silence until last week and you know the rest. You see kids, it doesn’t matter if it’s graffiti on the wall, or an article in the paper, even a comment on TV, if you defy them, they will come for you, this is what happens in a dictatorship run by a family mafia. Dissidence is a punishable offence. I can name many many more prominent anti-Syrian figures who lost their life in the same way, but i can’t name all those ” average Jo’s” Lebanese and Syrian who lost their life, or who went missing, tortured, threatened by the regime for openly defying it. These poor souls whose screams are still echoing in the dungeons of the security apparatus have been drowned out by the incessant talk of conspiracy theories and Agatha Christie type fantasies.
Sorry for the lamenting rant, it just seems so frustratingly childish sometimes.
Posted by Maverick | October 26, 2012, 7:49 pmAgatha Christie must be rolling in her grave right now at that analogy. Her plots had logic and rationality to them.
This stuff here is more along the lines of Howard Hughes on crack.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 26, 2012, 7:55 pmperhaps Maxwell Smart would have been more fitting….. 🙂
Posted by Maverick | October 26, 2012, 8:30 pmGaby, Imo Operation Grandpa Samaha was a feint intended to stoke the narrative of cascading regional threats “spilling over” to inflame the north & to reinforce the calls for ASAP American force to address the problem. Arresting the wannabe terrist still in the pre-op stage is good enough to rile things up and supply the required visuals, etc to illustrate said narrative.
Crude pressure along the lines of Presidential wimpdom in the face of increasing need is a consistent meme fronted by the triumverate of Hons John McCain, Lindsay Graham & Joe Lieberman. In the cold calculus of power plays and ploys, the examples of Samaha and Wissam are seen as minor and major potential game changers of facts on the ground in Lebanon and Syria
Some influential Friends of M14 see a failure to take full advantage of the aformentioned situation(s) .
Posted by lally | October 27, 2012, 12:27 amallright you got me, all this juicy whodunnit stuff proved too tantalising…. It was Merwan Charbel in the library with a candlestick. 🙂
Posted by Maverick | October 27, 2012, 1:50 amLally… all that may be true.
But bottom line… he was caught ferrying weapons… was he not?
Posted by Gabriel | October 27, 2012, 1:57 amI think that this assassination was coming regardless of the Samaha angle, though there may be a connection or angle or a trigger.
Furthermore, for those digging deep and deeper, you should look at the Jamil Sayyed angle which is mostly neglected, other than by QN.
Posted by OldHand | October 27, 2012, 6:15 amOLDHAND,
That’s exactly it! It was time to firm up total control over the “intelligence” apparatus.
Posted by danny | October 27, 2012, 7:24 amThe University of QN, Arab Studies ARST 0394, Modern Arab Conspiracy Theory: Lesson 1
…the triumverate of Hons John McCain, Lindsay Graham & Joe Lieberman…
Lally,
As you can see, you’re not winning many points claiming “Manny, Moe and Jack” have something to do with the recent violence in Lebanon and Syria.
These Senators are old and powerless. All they can do is attend meetings as part of the “Intelligence” Committees. Only the US administration has the power to make things happen in the ME, and judging from Obama’s stellar 4 years of withdraw, “leading from behind”, running from conflict, and allowing a US Ambassador to fend for himself, I’d say your conspiracy theory is just another in a long series of eye-brow popping Arab denial.
Today’s Required Reading:
http://www.memri.org/middle-east-media-research-institute.html
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 27, 2012, 9:18 amI tend to agree that the WAH assassination may have been coming regardless of Samaha. The man was probably too dangerous for many more reasons than just foiling the Samaha plot.
QN did mention Jamil Sayyid (coincidentally, the day before WAH was assassinated). And some of us did make a bit of a connection there, if you go back and look at the comments section under the SayyidNadim Koteich article.
But in the end, all those items still lead to the same conclusions: Syria.
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 27, 2012, 11:52 amWhat’s funny though… is that when the conclusion is Syria… the story has now shifted to… Not Syria, the regime Syria. It was an “entrapment” involving a “defector”.
At some point, Alex and co. simply have to get real, and just come out of the We Love Bashar closet.
Posted by Gabriel | October 27, 2012, 11:59 amGood to see some growing consensus that Gramp’s arrest and the killing of WAH aren’t necessarily related.
Gaby, I never denied that Grampa had the essential props in hand. He also appears to have “bought” the raison d’etre of the mission assigned to him. Just like all of the carefully nurtured terrists the FBI manages to lead into the traps of the plots that they themselves have designed.
Maverick. Maxwell Smart w/his shoe phone is the best fit.
AIG. If doggie poops on carpet, I berate idiot hubby/slave/kid/maid for neglecting dogsitting duties and make him/her clean it up in order to reinforce the lesson.
Happy to see your post denying motive/cui bono as the critical aspect of discerning who has committed the dastardly crime. For you to post such a moronic theory is a shockingly desperate attempt to divert attention and a surefire indicator that you secretly agree with my assessment that the zionist entity has the most to gain in eliminating Hezbollah’s partner in unraveling their spy networks.
Tra la.
Posted by lally | October 27, 2012, 3:04 pmSo now the FBI entrapped Samaha? LOL!
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 27, 2012, 4:58 pmWe are left with the hope the Syrian regime would finally learn a lesson or two from the Israeli Mossad and start eliminating M8 figures
Posted by Vulcan | October 27, 2012, 5:06 pmLally,
If you agree that Samaha was carrying the weapons, then all the other possibilities are irrelevant. It’s not relevant whether the US entrapped him, or Israel, or Saudi Arabia, or Syria. All that becomes secondary.
Nor of course is it relevant to who killed Wissam.
The point is that Samaha got his hand caught in the cookie jar, like those pedophiles they catch on American network TVs, “entrapped” by cops posing as 14 year old girls.
Here now then is a case of someone known for a long time for being a Syrian loyalist- par excellence. And he boo-booed.
There exist two possibilities.
1) The Syrian regime really did put him up to it.
2) The Syrian regime wasn’t behind putting him up to it, and he was in fact “entrapped”, by WAH, John McCain, Bibi, whoever.
More importantly, like those pedophiles, who may be first time offenders lured under false premises, we don’t know how many more times Granpapa was ferrying weapons. We know only that the possibility is now confirmed. He may have done once before, or a hundred times before.
It also does not matter if it was the US ultimately behind the plan. It matters only if Samaha believed it was the Syrian regime behind the plan.
The only possible interesting “twist” to this story is of course, Samaha has been an American stooge all along.
But if that were the case, the media would have been all over it.
And barring that possibility, even if Syria’s regime had absolutely nothing to do with this particular incident, the pie landed all over their face.
Posted by Gabriel | October 27, 2012, 6:12 pmSorry to have confused the issues by using the FBI entrapment tactics as an example of how it’s done….
“even if Syria’s regime had absolutely nothing to do with this particular incident, the pie landed all over their face.”
Too true, Gaby. Innocence is no excuse.
Posted by lally | October 27, 2012, 8:55 pmIt is very elementary that before the investigation of any death , it is basic first to confirm that death has ACTUALLY occured. Usually a forensic doctor examines the dead body, confirms that the body is DEAD. Next step is confirm the identity of the deceased, through dental records, or finger prints or DNA evidence . In the case of Wissam Al hassan, I understand that NO body was found, and that Wissam was declared dead because his watch and gun were found in the crime scene. This is simply NOT physically possible, that a man’s body totally disappears following an explosion, like the one that has occurred in Achrafieh. We know from past experiences, that even in cases of suicide bombers, whose bodies are wrapped in explosives, there are always scattered pieces of the body that can enable idetification, as mentioned above ( a head or severed limb) . Furthermore, Wissam’s body was ” protected” by the car that he was in , and the car which carried the explosives ( even though the car was not an armored vehicle but will offer Wissam’s body some degree of protection . It wil be more likely that bodies of pediastians who were killed, will suffer more mutillation, and their bodies will “diapear”, than the body of Wissam who , as I said was relatively protected in the car ( by the way did Wissam wear bullet proof vest?). Still, the killed pedestrians bodies were found and easily recognized, without much mutilation!
Which raises the question, what was buried in that grave ? After we have answers for these questions, then can we ask where and how did Hussam die, and this will lead to a totally different conclusion on who carried the Achrafieh explosion.
Posted by fthinker | October 27, 2012, 8:59 pmThis sounds like a mystery for Scooby Doo. It seems unbelivable to me. Sometimes if you know to much you may wind up dead. That seems to be the theory here. The truth will probably never be known or told. We must speculate on why, who and how all of this happened. Corruption I would say.
Posted by Rhonda Gilbreath | October 27, 2012, 9:53 pm“If doggie poops on carpet, I berate idiot hubby/slave/kid/maid for neglecting dogsitting duties”
No, you berate the Zionist entity which secretly controls all the carpet cleaners in the world.Let’s face it, even if there were incontrovertible proof that Assad was behind this you would blame Israel and the US for pushing him to do it. Assad has pooped on the carpet and he is responsible for the poop.
Cui bono is for conspiracy theorists and idiots. For example, it is Israel that convinced Assad to stop the Damascus Spring because that would lead to the revolution and the trashing of Syria, which is what Israel wants. After all, who benefits but Israel from the fact that Syrians are tearing their country into shreds? It is clear also that it is Israel that is bombing Turkey because who but Israel benefits from Turkey and Syria becoming enemies? It is clear also that Israel kidnapped the Lebanese in Syria because it benefited from the fact that this embarrassed Hezbollah. Israel is also responsible for advising and implementing the economical policies of its neighbors. Why other would they pursue idiotic policies that keep them weak to the benefit of Israel? Who but Israel is sabotaging the education systems in the Arab world?
I can go on forever. Either Israel’s enemies are so smart so as to never make mistakes on their own but they are so dumb that Israel easily manipulates and confuses them. That is the basis of your cui bono theory. Hint: A theory built on contradicting axioms tends to be not that useful.
Posted by AIG | October 27, 2012, 11:38 pmGuys stop wasting time on the Lallys and Landises of this world, AND stop giving them credibility they don’t deserve.
Posted by OldHand | October 28, 2012, 1:38 amCui bono theory is quite useless also because, if it were valid in theory, who is to say who has the most to gain from a particular event? With so many blank spaces we can’t possibly see all the reasons and even less attempt to value these reasons.
Posted by Pas Cool | October 28, 2012, 4:19 amA conspiracy theory that has no equal. This just in from Beirut (Aouni relatives). WAH was not assassinated. Why? Investigators have not provided DNA evidence… The reality is that WAH faked his death so he can continue his investigation of the ‘ultimate’ file without those he is investigating knowing/growing suspicious enough to assassinate him. I don’t think it gets any better that this.
Posted by Johnny Seikaly | October 28, 2012, 5:52 amThere are two narratives being conflated here. One: The Samaha affair, and the second: the assassination of WAH.
So taking this back to QN’s original post, and Lally’s subscription to Cui Bono.
I think we all agree that the Samaha affair left the Syrian regime’s face with a dollops of pie.
The follow up question is: Is the Samaha case related in any shape or form to the assassination of WAH?
Was the Syrian regime really sending a message, as BV would have it, that a red line has been crossed? Or is there something else going on?
I think this is where the paths diverge, and what is essentially the point raised by QN originally. It is also, where I think Cui Bono does in fact have a place in the analysis.
I don’t think a case has been made suggesting Syria was not behind the WAH assassination. But the suggestion that Syria offed him because they are settling scores that he arrested their man is a bit of Reductio ad absurdum.
Posted by Gabriel | October 28, 2012, 10:13 amI called “WAH faked his own death ala Elvis” a few days ago. Pay up! Wait…I think I may have forgotten to wager…
Posted by Bad Vilbel | October 28, 2012, 7:32 pmWhy People who vote Obama should have their Head Examined NewZ
Guys stop wasting time on the Lallys and Landises of this world, AND stop giving them credibility they don’t deserve.
Oldhand,
You’re asking us to refrain from entertaining ourselves.
OK, let’s change the subject.
Did you see Dinesh D’Souza’s movie “Obama’s America 2016”?
http://2016themovie.com/
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 28, 2012, 8:32 pmTo some/ many/most? who frequent this venue, the questions relating to motive/cui bono? re WAH were asked and answered as quick as a synapse. Wooooooosh; went by so quickly that the action itself didn’t necessarily register.
Adherents of the orthodoxy Assad+Hezbollah>Wassam can just chill; no worries, this is the indestructible dominating meme resonant among the circles that count. Will the aggressive M14 moves to topple the GOL and to invoke the STL succeed? Stay tuned. A model of sovereignty that colludes to hardwire the precedents of outsourcing of Lebanon’s police and judicial independence would never be tolerated by the democracies urging it’s adoption. Anathema.
Whatever, the FBI team has control of the motherlode of forensic evidence in the case; they certainly know their priorities, don’t they?I wonder if we are so generous as to pass on American expertise in the field to the Lebanese bodies tasked with gathering and processing evidence. Assuming nothing about the state of Lebanon’s laboratories required to process complex specimens (DNA?), that analysis will likely be performed in the designated facilities far abroad. One might expect we-the-beneficent would embrace an opportunity for sharing invaluable lessons on how-to-do forensics if we were so inclined. Are we?
No argument that Operation Grandpa Samaha puts “dollops of'” something (see AIG) on the Syrian regime’s face. The questions arise over how it got there; did they do the equivalent of “spitting” into the wind?
I submit that the Samaha business is but a sideshow; the main event is the case of the martyr Wissam al Hassan being swiftly enshrouded. Information is being sequestered to the point of a blanket disavowal of prior revelations about the few diverse details thought to be known. The intrigue potential is boundless in a paradigm that as per Pas Cool above consists, of “…so many blank spaces”.
The temptation to fill them in is heightened by the admonitions to “never you mind now, citizen(s)”.
Posted by lally | October 29, 2012, 1:52 amArab Studies ARST 0394, Modern Arab Conspiracy Theory: Lesson 2
I…can’t…seem….to…get…the…FBI…out…of…my….head.
The…motherlode…of…forensic…evidence…is…overwhelming me…
Must…dig….a…spider-hole…and…hide…. American…Zionists…are…watching…me…
Today’s Conspiracy Vocabulary (Pop Quz next week):
“dollops”
“Synapse”
“Whooooooosh”
“dominating meme”
“Anathema”
“Lebanon’s laboratories”
“Operation Grandpa”
“sideshow”
“main event”
“sequestered”
“prior revelations”
“diverse details”
“intrigue”
“paradigm”
“admonitions”
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 29, 2012, 7:41 amAP, is Sandy the perfect storm or what? i think it must be a revelation for the undecided… i FEDEXed my ballot, hope it wont get diverted to Iceland or Cuba 🙂
Posted by Vulcan | October 29, 2012, 12:13 pmVulcan,
I saw Obama: 2016 yesterday at my sister’s house. Unbelievable. It is no conspiracy theory that Obama wants to right the “wrongs” of world colonialism.
God news : Rasmussen.has Romney 2 points up in Ohio!
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 29, 2012, 12:26 pmSorry AP, I saw the movie and it was incredibly boring. Only the right wingnuts believe what it claims.
Posted by Vulcan | October 29, 2012, 1:38 pmBack to Lebanon, looks like our buddy Nadim Koteich may get to interview Grandpa Samaha in the slammer
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Oct-29/193089-prosecutor-refers-report-against-koteich-for-probe-over-riot.ashx#axzz2Ai9YhtdL
Posted by Vulcan | October 29, 2012, 1:50 pmLally:
And why should they?
Or asked another way, are they not already doing so?
American and Canadian universities already host many foreigners. In my own graduate program, almost all graduate students were Chinese, or Iranian, or Indian, or Arab.
Why this presumption that the Arabs are owed technical know-how: A How-to-Do-Forensics for Dummys if you will.
Isn’t the sheer amount of Arabs, Iranian and whathave you not testament enough that with the will and the proper investments, they can do it all themselves?
And if they are not interested in developing the skill sets, and would rather outsource to the US, Britain, France, Russia… then they should accept the repercussions and implications with open arms.
Posted by Gabriel | October 29, 2012, 2:02 pmVulcan,
The person who wrote the movie and the related book is a successful writer and speaker. What info in the movie was false or inaccurate? I’d like to check it.
That Obama (and his birth father) had friends from the anti-colonialist and communist/”wing nut” Left is a fact.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinesh_D%27Souza
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 29, 2012, 2:57 pmAP, the facts you or the documentary maker mention, dont mean POTUS is conspiring to destroy America from within, that is outright mendacity.
Posted by Vulcan | October 29, 2012, 3:24 pmI’m just waiting for the newsflash that Grampa Samaha was secretly dealing with the Israelis and the Americans all along.
Surely, if Grampa Samaha was resolutely pro-Syrian, and the Syrian regime have ensured a quiet Golan front for all these years, then by transitivity… Israel was behind it all 😀
Posted by Gabriel | October 29, 2012, 4:03 pmGaby. I was being sarcastic. Even though the FBI involvement in (at least 5?)Lebanese bombings has yielded exactly bupkes in the way of known results, it doesn’t seem to matter.Perhaps a version of CSI Lebanon is in order; it could be filmed in Haifa and TA.
BTW. It’s been recently reported that even the Mossad has been outsourcing some of it’s more difficult operations. That could explain the Grandpa Samaha Brouhaha; the MEK did it!
Posted by lally | October 29, 2012, 4:30 pmVulcan,
I don’t think Dinesh D’Souza is claiming there is a conspiracy. I think he feels Americans and the media haven’t really dug very deep into Obama’s past. He claims the majority of voters 4 years ago were looking for “hope” not caring so much who was offering this. He also thinks there was a large portion of the electorate that had a certain amount of sympathy or guilt to help them elect our nation’s first black president.
For those of us who knew about his leftist and socialist past, we are not very surprised at his big government approach as well as his hands off foreign policy.
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 29, 2012, 4:40 pmLally,
I think I ought to start following the twitter streams. You’re losing me with all the acronyms. MEK?
Posted by Gabriel | October 29, 2012, 4:52 pm“Known” is the relevant qualifier here.
I am not sure if the good citizens were ever intended to know. I don’t doubt there are quite a few people in the know.
Strangely, I think the status quo seems to be suiting all concerned parties just fine.
So it’s left to us QNites to carry on with the sleuthing!
Posted by Gabriel | October 29, 2012, 4:58 pmMEK, Mujahadeen-e-Khalq , exiled little Iranian terrorists.
Posted by Vulcan | October 29, 2012, 5:05 pmor as Lally says “terrists”
Posted by Vulcan | October 29, 2012, 5:07 pm“We kondameen tororeezeem in all its foormeez” my favorite Arafat quote
Posted by Vulcan | October 29, 2012, 5:10 pmLoL.
Thanks Vulcan. I was scratching my head trying to figure it out. I didn’t realize I had to go all the way to Iran.
Although is it Lally that calls them terrists, or the GOA (is that a valid acronym).
You never know. One day you’re a terrist, the next day you’re buddy buddy.
Posted by Gabriel | October 29, 2012, 5:19 pmI always got a kick when Arafat used the word “shocked”:
” I am toe tallee shock-ed I say. Ab-solute-Ely, toe-tally shock-ed!
Posted by Akbar Palace | October 29, 2012, 6:50 pmIs Syria turning into Lebanon?
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-31/193365-syria-rebels-bring-fight-to-pro-assad-palestinians.ashx#axzz2AtRQeT6f
Posted by Gabriel | October 31, 2012, 12:05 pmLet’s hope Lebanon doesnt turn into Syria
Posted by Vulcan | October 31, 2012, 2:50 pmToday’s ME SNAFU Index
Guys, did you run out of things to talk about? I can help!
Let’s take a gander at the BBC ME page.
More bombs and dead bodies splattered across the ME as Turkey takes the bold step try the Zionist Hoodlums in court.
Situation Normal – All “Fouled” Up….
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/middle_east/
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 6, 2012, 8:05 amHere’s what we were talking about! Claoun babbles again:
“Aoun says Hassan responsible for his own death”
http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=454295
Posted by danny | November 6, 2012, 1:53 pmThis election day feels like Christmas and Armageddon rolled in one
Vote for freedom
Vote for equality
Vote for peace
VOTE OBAMA
Posted by Vulcan | November 6, 2012, 2:53 pmHow about:
Vote for Increased Government Spending
Vote for American Decline
Vote for American-Islamist Unity
Vote for American Unemployment
Vote for American Illegal Alien Safe Havens
Vote for Iranian Nuclear Weapons
Vote for Israeli Isolation
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 7, 2012, 9:43 amAP…Don’t be a sore loser. 😀
Posted by danny | November 7, 2012, 10:34 am***FORWARD*** “We are and forever will be, The United States of America”
Again, America shows the world what a great nation we are.
God Bless America
“Doing the happy dance”
Posted by Vulcan | November 7, 2012, 11:05 amAP…Don’t be a sore loser.
Danny,
I think it would be more useful if you told Vulcan to stop rubbing salt into our conservative wounds…
In my part of the world (working, tax-paying engineer), we’re all subdued and negative this morning… q:o(
The nations “takers” are now dictating policy. The balance is now in favor of the non-working majority. Working, middle-class America are now the new ancient Hebrews, and the the “takers” are now the new ancient Egyptian “task-masters” with whip in hand.
“Cough it up and give me 50% of your income! I need to have an abortion, feed a couple out-of-wedlock babies and a crack-head mother to tend to…”
Welcome to the age of Irresponsibility
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 7, 2012, 11:54 amAmerica Spoke, and the demonized American Business Community has answered…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49725783
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 7, 2012, 12:21 pmAP.
No, it’s better for the American tax-payer to bankroll Israel instead of feeding out-of-wedlock babies and “crackhead” mothers.
Posted by Gabriel | November 7, 2012, 6:59 pmGabriel’s “Bankrolling” Concern
Gabriel,
Except for the fact the American tax-payer ISN’T “bankrolling” Israel. The token foreign aide Israel receives (like Egypt) allows Israel to fight her own battles. Never in Israel’s history have American soldiers had to fight there to protect Israel. Conversely, the amount of American blood and treasure rendered to save arab and muslim nations (Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Libya, Bosnia, did I miss any?) PALES in comparison.
I would think you’d be aware of this or are you just selectively biased?
The American tax-payer will be screwed more now than they were these past 4 years. Obama’s anti-business ideology will mean continued joblessness and higher taxes. Have fun.
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 8, 2012, 8:01 amAP.
What you really ought to do is to shelf the fact that you are a Jew for some brief moments. And then re-read your post.
You came here presenting an economic argument: “Vote for Unemployment”, “cough up 50% of your money for out-of-wedlock kids and crackhead mothers”.
Stick to this line, an re-read your post.
If you are against Obama for his economic policies because his policies take from the American Tax Payer, but does not help Americans, then the onus is on you to explain how:
Taking money from the American tax-payer (however “token” it is) to pay for Israel “defending itself”, ultimately helps the average American (not the subset that have an emotional connection to the State of Israel and its well-being.
Re: your other examples Kuwait, Iraq, etc. There are clear geo-strategic and economic benefits. Contracts for corporations, and American oil companies, and defence contracts with rich Sheikhdoms, paying America, and by extension Americans to have their soldiers in their region, and for for weapons that keep Americans employed.
Yes- that has come at some cost to America as well (as has America’s support for Israel): Blood and Money.
But from a pure economic benefits perspective, I think you’d be hard pressed to find convincing arguments that Americans ultimately benefit from giving that aid to Israel.
Those billions of dollars really could go to help crackhead mothers. Either way, it appears the money is getting flushed down the toilet.
Posted by Gabriel | November 8, 2012, 12:12 pmMore on Gabriel’s “Bankrolling” Issue
What you really ought to do is to shelf the fact that you are a Jew for some brief moments.
Gabriel,
I re-read our posts, and YOU are the one who brought up Israel. If you didn’t bring up Israel, I wouldn’t have brought up the rest of the ME. Dude, I’ll forget I’m a Jew if you forget Israel;) Fair?
In any case money is certainly getting flushed down the toilet. Wars, foreign aide, financial and security issues abound. What the US gets for it’s aide to Israel is excellent security and military know-how and jobs (half of the aide must be spent in the US).
As much as dislike Obama, his Libyan example may be the course of US intervention in the future. Cheap and lethal w/o any American human cost.
Elias requested I provide a list (free of charge) just to make sure we’re on the same page…
KUWAIT
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War
“Around US$36 billion of the US$60 billion cost was paid by Saudi Arabia.”
Cost: $24 billion, 482 killed coalition forces
LEBANON
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Beirut_barracks_bombing
Cost: 241 American servicemen killed
IRAQ
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War
Cost: $1000 to possibly $3000 billion; 4805 coalition forces killed
BOSNIA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_War
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/index/bosnia/nbos017.htm
Cost: $6 billion
AFGHANISTAN:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban_insurgency
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0933935.html
Cost: $500 billion and 2600 killed
LIBYA
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/23/politics/fact-check-libya-cost/index.html
Cost: $2 billion
EGYPT
Cost: $1.7 billion annually
SYRIA
Cost: TBD (Let’s discuss whether you think we should get involved as above)
IRAN
Cost: TBD (“”)
vs.
ISRAEL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_foreign_aid
Cost: $3 billion annually
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 8, 2012, 4:33 pmI can’t believe I’m reading this.
Posted by 3issa | November 8, 2012, 6:04 pmSo the US are spending $3B every year, $1.5B of it are spent in the US and $1.5B are the price to pay to get unique security and military expertise from the”israelis”.
Lovely.
Posted by 3issa | November 8, 2012, 6:10 pmAP.
I brought up Israel to demonstrate that you are a hypocrite. You don’t really care about flushing money down the toilet. You are just unhappy the US electorate didn’t vote for your cause du jour.
Your list is not required. It’s only one side of the balance sheet. How much money did the US make out of each of these “interventions”?
Also, please don’t bring Lebanon and Egypt into the equation. The money that the US pays to Egypt, and the military equipment it provides feeds directly back to the US, or is used in the service of “Israel’s protection” to promote “Peace and Security”.
As was its involvement in Lebanon, and the subsequent price it paid there.
It wasn’t for their love of Hummus.
So get real AP. That money- whether it is spent directly there and contributes to “money velocity” in the Israeli economy, or is spent in Egypt amongst the pliant Egyptian leadership/army (let’s see what happens now after the Arab Spring), is directly related to the “Peace and Security” of Israel.
As for Afghanistan. I’m surprised you’re complaining about the funds the Americans are spending now to fight the Taliban. Especially that in the 80s, they were spending Tax Payer dollars producing literature to make the Afghanis more Muslim than Muhammad. Search the web for some lovely pictures of Reagan with the Mujahideen.
I’m with you of course. I think the US should dry up their funds to all those places- Israel included.
And they should spend it on Americans and the American economy instead.
Posted by Gabriel | November 8, 2012, 6:33 pmAlso,
Thanks for the wiki link on Kuwait. If you are going to quote a site, copy verbatim, or get the math right.
The actual detailed statement is:
So reallly, the US was apparently out of pocket only by 9 Billion. According to the US Congress that is. Out of pocket that they paid to… well… themselves.
The question though is really, how is this “cost” synthesized. Does it include the cost of the missiles it rained on Iraq?
And who built those missiles? In which factories?
So come again… how did you come to the figure of the Gulf war costing the US 24 Billion?
Posted by Gabriel | November 8, 2012, 7:00 pmFor some comic relief, this is hilarious
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-november-7-2012/post-democalypse-2012—america-takes-a-shower
Posted by Vulcan | November 8, 2012, 7:07 pmHere’s the full episode, I think it is one of his funniest
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/wed-november-7-2012-nate-silver
Posted by Vulcan | November 8, 2012, 7:17 pmVulcan,
You win. I can’t stand liberals, especially Jewish liberals like Jon Stewart. Glad you like him. IMO, the best liberals are quiet ones. At the JCC, few Jews I talk to admit voting for Obama. It’s a big secret throughout the community. It’s best that way;)
So the US are spending $3B every year, $1.5B of it are spent in the US and $1.5B are the price to pay to get unique security and military expertise from the”israelis”.
3issa,
I think you summed it up fairly well. A drop in the ME cost “bucket”, since now, we’re talking about cost to the American taxpayer that Gabriel is concerned with.
Gabriel,
Thanks for the correction on Kuwait. I stand corrected. Any other errors in that list?
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 8, 2012, 8:07 pmlol AP, ok bro in that case here’s a conservative for your liking
http://www.colbertnation.com/full-episodes/wed-november-7-2012-doris-kearns-goodwin
Posted by Vulcan | November 8, 2012, 8:20 pmAP
Any other errors in that list?
Yes, read the post previous to the Kuwait post.
Billions of dollars being spent for the Peace and Security of Israel, is I think, better spent on Crackhead unwed American mothers.
May Yehweh bless Obama.
Posted by Gabriel | November 8, 2012, 11:45 pmGabriel,
You must have skipped my response, I already acknowledged your correction on Kuwait. It’s 9 billion, not 24. But in terms of taxpayers money, you may want to include the Peace and Security of Arab Countries since they gobble up ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE more money and Amercian lives.
Frankly, I believe the $3 billion to Israel should be cancelled because it’s a relatively small amount and Israel can easily absorb it. However, I think the gesture remains because both sides are happy with it. For example, the $1.7 billion we provide Egypt annually, is often cited when the Egyptians storm our embassy there are when the government threatens to anul the peace agreement.
Vulcan,
Thanks for the humour. I tend to avoid these TV shows. I dislike the audience “gang mentality” and I almost always disagree with the smarmy hosts. I’m not too familiar with Colbert, but I know Maher and Stewart are liberal A-holes;)
But if your looking for political humor, I suggest pro-Israel goy, Dennis Miller…
http://www.dennismillerradio.com/
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 9, 2012, 7:59 amAP.
I didn’t miss the response.
My post seems to have gone over your head.
I just demonstrated that without even counting Oil contracts and reconstruction contracts, it is arguable that just by the figures alone that come from the US Congress, and as presented by the Wiki address that you provided, that in fact this was an economically lucrative deal for the US (The First Gulf War).
So if I were to follow your line of thinking:- The US government should not be funding the “dependency” people- or crackheads as you refer to them- and instead be funding activities that are economically advantageous to them, then as opposed to the Aid and money spent on Israel, the money that went to Kuwait was actually a boon to the US economy.
Therefore, your error was not simply limited to getting the numbers wrong (thanks for the gracious acknowledgement), but a fundamental error in the comparison which is what you were trying to make. “Hey, it gives Israel 3 Billion (1.5 of which it spends on the US… so should not count), but it gave Kuwait 26 Billion (later corrected to 9 Bilion).” The underlying message you were trying to make is that the Americans give to the Arabs a lot more than it gives to the Jews.
Of course the 36 Billion that the Saudi and other Sheikhdoms spent on the Kuwait war went to pay the salaries, and for the war machine of the US military. Ditto for the German and Japanese contribution. This money went directly to the American economy. I re-iterate… none of this analysis includes the other benefits in terms of reconstruction contracts and oil contracts and so on and so forth.
That you attempted to reverse the reality from what it actually is, in what can only be described as Reductio ad absurdum, is quite insulting to say the least.
Either way, I’m glad that you agree that the US should stop funding Israel.
Posted by Gabriel | November 9, 2012, 1:50 pmWatch Gabriel Ignore, Deflect and Build Straw Men – Part Une
I re-iterate… none of this analysis includes the other benefits in terms of reconstruction contracts and oil contracts and so on and so forth….That you attempted to reverse the reality from what it actually is, in what can only be described as Reductio ad absurdum, is quite insulting to say the least.
Gabriel,
Please feel free to answer the following question for the forum:
What benefits did the US get from it’s role in ousting Saddam Hussein and the Taliban from Iraq and Afghanistan, respectively, and how do you think it compares to the benefit of “funding Israel”?
BTW – I wouldn’t sbeak about anything “absurd” or “insulting” since you seem to be a pro in these categories, bar none.
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 9, 2012, 2:16 pmAP:
Your question is bizarre, and you cannot possibly expect me to answer it before you answer the more pertinent question, which you “ignored”, “deflected” and built straw me (part- Hundred).
The question was, and I repeat it here….
So…
Why exactly are you complaining about the ouster of the Taliban.
But besides that point, even if you could make a convincing argument that America’s support of the Mujahideen in the 80s did not, at least, in part spawn groups like the Taliban…
isn’t it obvious that they had benefits anyways?
Did Afghanistan (and the Taliban) not provide save haven and training grounds for the fighters of the Taliban, and all reactionary Muslims from around the world?
The same people who flew planes into the WTC on September 11th?
Are you really coming here and asking me what “benefits” America may have from clearing up such areas?
Posted by Gabriel | November 9, 2012, 3:06 pmPS. My reference to the word “insulting” was not meant to signify personal insult, my general expertise area.
It was my intelligence that was insulted- as I am sure was the intelligence of any reader of this site.
Posted by Gabriel | November 9, 2012, 3:13 pmGabriel,
Your italicized “question” is just another straw-man statement. You’re slipping, going on another tangent, and way beyond the “taxpayer” issue you claim to be so concerned about.
Are you really coming here and asking me what “benefits” America may have from clearing up such areas?
Clearing up? Yes. Tell us why you think it was worth $500 billion dollars, especially now that Obama is going to withdraw from Afghanistan (as we did in Iraq) w/o any agreement while the countries we’ve liberated fall back into the hands of the totalitarians? Sounds like an incredibly large waste of taxpayer money that PALES in comparison to the money we “waste” on the Zionist Hooligan.
Gabriel, considering your flimsy argument, I would be too concerned about me insulting your “intelligence”. I would spend more time reading TIME magazine instead of madrassa brochures.
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 9, 2012, 3:50 pmAP- Not that it matters to the discussion, but there is a SPA and a SOFA that will kick in when the troops leave Afgh in 2014
Posted by Vulcan | November 9, 2012, 5:52 pmAP.
If you want to argue. Stick to the argument.
I am not the one who told America to go to Afghanistan. You asked me what benefit America got out of the mission, and I listed the most obvious one.
Nor am I here to justify whether 500 Billion was too much money spent. Maybe the cost/benefit analysis did not come out in America’s favor in this case. But I am not an American taxpayer, so this decision is not for me to make or assess. You on the other hand should have every interest in the topic.
Which is why I am now perplexed and confused.
Given that you supported Romney, I am a little surprised by the fact that you are bringing this question up.
http://2012.candidate-comparison.org/?compare=Romney&vs=Obama&on=Afghanistan
Obama, is committed to troop withdrawal in 2014. Romney is still on the fence.
Maybe you should call the Romney and ask him how much longer, and how much more money he thought America should spend in Afghanistan.
And whether or not he thinks the extra money he proposes to keep sinking into Afghanistan is “worth” it.
What you need to do is to clear your head. It’s full of conflicting and contradictory ideas. So clear it up, think about the issues you think are important- as an American- and then come and argue.
There is no point having a discussion with someone who is simply here to dither on the various issues.
Posted by Gabriel | November 9, 2012, 5:59 pmYou can take Semaan out of the village…
Elias, your Lebanese roots did shine through your more serious education in this piece. From all implausible theories, this does not seems “too implausible”? Come on.
in my opinion, this is what happened: the whole thing was going on business as usual util the big explosion that rooted our people from the inner circle in Damascus (Assif Shawkat and co). At this point Kfouri, a collaborator, panicked and thought that he is backing up a regime in his last moments and that the whole thing could blow up in his face, so he decided to tip ISF and turn informant. The rest, as the saying goes, is recorded on a pen.
As to all the fantastic arguments, that we hear here and there, they are really nothing but noise for people to try to convince Themselves that they are not backing up a party/regime/people that are nothing more than common criminals that are ready to blow up the whole country for the sake of personal benefit.
I may add that the whole “entrapment” theory is based on the assumption that Syria is going to give Samaha the explosives (in order to entrap him), which somehow assumes that this route, or similar ones, has been used extensively enough in the past. Yet this is the argument that launched the whole entrapment theory in the first place (the use of such route). Does not compute.
Posted by Caustic | November 10, 2012, 5:50 amStick to the argument.
Gabriel, I am sticking to the argument. The argument is wasting taxpayer money. You claimed taxpayer money is wasted on Israel. When you said,
Either way, it appears the money is getting flushed down the toilet.
Posted by Gabriel | November 8, 2012, 12:12 pm
Then you had the audacity to insult this forum’s intelligence that more money is wasted on Israel than the rest of the ME when you stated (specifically in the Afghan case):
As for Afghanistan. I’m surprised you’re complaining about the funds the Americans are spending now to fight the Taliban. Especially that in the 80s, they were spending Tax Payer dollars producing literature to make the Afghanis more Muslim than Muhammad. Search the web for some lovely pictures of Reagan with the Mujahideen.
Gabriel,
I suggest you forget you’re an anti-Zionist for a moment and realize you’re making a fool of yourself.
There is no point having a discussion with someone who is simply here to dither on the various issues.
No “dithering” Gabriel. It just seems when you’re caught making poor arguments (either to me or AIG), you have a hard time admitting it.
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 11, 2012, 6:43 pmAP AP AP.
Please don’t put words in other peoples’ mouths.
“Then you had the audacity to insult this forum’s intelligence that more money is wasted on Israel than the rest of the ME ”
I said more money is wasted in Israel? Where did I say such a thing. I showed you that no money was wasted in Kuwait, that in fact, the Americans made money out of it, using a website you offered up.
Stick to the argument and to what people actually say.
All I said is that if it’s a matter of flushing money down the toilet… it’s better for the Americans to spend it on their crackheads and unwed mothers.
Posted by Gabriel | November 12, 2012, 10:47 amOn a serious note:
This conversation started with you- a rabid Anti-Obamite and Pro-Romney supporter- coming here mocking the election result which gave money to the “Crackheads” and “unwed mothers”.
I mentioned a little Israel and you went off on Kuwait and Afghanistan and and.
Your last word had you complain that the US sunk $500bil in Afghanistan, and questioning whether the ROI was “worth it”.
Except you voted for the person who wanted to bump up the Investment in Afghanistan. Surely then, you must feel the ROI is well worth it (as an American). And you were simply being facetious asking me whether I though the money spent was “worth it”.
Otherwise, you’re confused, and you need to go back and do some homework, as I proposed earlier.
There is no point getting agitated and defensive. Clear up your thoughts, string together a coherent thought, and then come back and argue.
Posted by Gabriel | November 12, 2012, 11:17 amI said more money is wasted in Israel?
Gabriel,
Yes you did. You sarcastically stated:
No, it’s better for the American tax-payer to bankroll Israel instead of feeding out-of-wedlock babies and “crackhead” mothers.
Posted by Gabriel | November 7, 2012, 6:59 pm
This conversation started with you- a rabid Anti-Obamite and Pro-Romney supporter- coming here mocking the election result which gave money to the “Crackheads” and “unwed mothers”.
That’s correct. The point where the majority of Americans are taking money from the government than putting into it, set a dangerous precedent. This has been the Democrat’s goal for the last 50 years. It ensures the Democrats hold power by having a majority and it creates a minority working class that works for this majority. This election is proof of that. Bring in more illegal aliens, keep the underclass “thriving” and watch the democrats and liberals increase in number. Obama, liberals and democrats don’t want poor people to work and thrive; they’d be out of a job…
I mentioned a little Israel and you went off on Kuwait and Afghanistan and and.
Yes, when discussing taxpayer waste and Obama, I found it strange you would mention “little Israel”. I suppose anti-ZIonists can’t help doing that. So I can’t be too concerned bringing up foreign spending that produces a MUCH larger waste of money.
Have a nice day,
AP
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 12, 2012, 12:39 pmAP:
I am fiscally very liberal. I believe in social programs. I believe in universal care. As such, even when I concede there can be waste, waste is not the be-all or end-all of my political/economic philosophy. So ultimately, I have nothing to answer to..
You, on the other hand, have come here on a platform of complaining and snickering against “waste”. Which is why I took you to task.
The Democratic party are the taxation party. So I don’t understand where you come and say that it sets a dangerous precedent that “Americans” take more money from the government than they put into it. Government has only a few ways to generate income: natural resources, nationalizing industries or taxation.
If the government doesn’t “take”, it has nothing to “give”.
If the market was the end-all and be-all of decision making, then the Romneys and Trumps of the world may well decide that it makes better economic sense to outsource work, and send jobs abroad.
But make no mistake about it: Whether the “giving” comes from the government, or from the good charity of Donald Trump (and others like him), to get the economy going again in the US requires that money be spent in the US, and on and by Americans.
This is the fundamental problem of the “Rich People” party: If small business could be so easily dissuaded from investing in the US because of taxation, and the “cost” of business, then why could they not as easily be dissuaded by the cost of labor, or any other cost for that matter? The Republican party- vanguard of the Free Economy, and removing the shackles of Government regulation is ultimately unable to explain where precisely it plans to raise the necessary money to create growth. Except of course where it comes to the question of Leaps of Faith:- that the rich will act in ways that are best for America and Americans… not their bottom line.
And barring that, all they are left with, is to do what you have come to do here: which is to pick on the weak of society and blame them for the ills.
Posted by Gabriel | November 12, 2012, 1:03 pmRe: “Yes you did. You sarcastically stated: No, it’s better for the American tax-payer to bankroll Israel instead of feeding out-of-wedlock babies and “crackhead” mothers.”
For the record, there was nothing sarcastic about what I wrote. I meant every word of it. Money the Tax Payer spends in the US, and on Americans is money that contributes to the economy. Money sent out- whether as aid to Israel, Afghanistan, or Egypt is money that does not contribute to the American economy. It is as simple as that.
There was no superlative added except for the one that you imagined.
Posted by Gabriel | November 12, 2012, 1:17 pmAP I remember the first time I was absolutely convinced that you were an idiot. It was the time when you were calling the peoples of the ME who ask for their rights, jihadis. It was back then… I can see that you remained consistent as time passed
Posted by 3issa | November 12, 2012, 3:24 pmAnd by my book, anyone who is OK with the presence of an “israeli” “state” is a zionist. So our ustez Gabriel surely is zionist. He can’t be anti zionist, he is just angry at the occupation and the bad things that are commited against the Palestinians.
Posted by 3issa | November 12, 2012, 3:30 pmSo the 50 plus percent of the American people who voted for Obama are all on food stamps???!! what kinda logic is this? you are sounding like Bill O’Reilly
Posted by Vulcan | November 12, 2012, 3:48 pm“I’m Mad as Hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!!
He can’t be anti zionist, he is just angry at the occupation…
3issa,
Perhaps Gabriel and I can merge our two angers together and rid the world of fossil and nuclear fuels.
So the 50 plus percent of the American people who voted for Obama are all on food stamps???!!
Vulcan,
I don’t care who I sound like, because the fact of the matter is 46 million American are on food stamps, and that is nearly 50% of the electorate. This is not a conspiracy theory, because if the government is giving you your food, who are you going to vote for? It’s a no-brainer habibi… The US is on the road to ruin.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48898378/Record_46_Million_Americans_Are_on_Food_Stamps
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 12, 2012, 4:17 pmStop the damned poor people from voting! I suggest revoking the voting rights of anyone on food stamps! 😀
Posted by danny | November 12, 2012, 4:25 pmDanny,
You’re missing the point. Create an environment where businesses are making a profit and HIRING.
But no, the poor don’t want to work for their food stamps. Too many people live off the dole when they are physically able to work. And the liberals are more than happy to borrow trillions of taxpayer money to keep these people begging for more. Only the illegal aliens want risk life an limb to work here in the US, and they get no help from the government…
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 12, 2012, 4:30 pmAP..
So you think that the 50% of the popular vote that Obama got was from the 46 million people on Food stamps.
There are no (or they are miminal) “Gabriel” archetypes in the US- people like me- who work, who are middle class and who beieve in the policies of Obama.
You really believe that each and every one of those 46 million food stamp collectors went out and voted for Obama.
Nice.
Posted by Gabriel | November 12, 2012, 5:11 pmHoly bejesus,
We have Bill O’Reilly’s and Carl Rove’s love child in here.
Just thought you might take a look at another perspective even though your’e not a big fan
http://www.juancole.com/2012/11/why-bill-oreilly-is-wrong-about-minorities-wanting-things-the-election.html
Anyways…..
Posted by Maverick | November 12, 2012, 7:29 pmGuys,
Easy on AP.
Reilly seems to think only non-white or non-males “want things”.
AP didn’t limit the adjective “crackhead” to any particular group or gender.
It’s a step up.
Posted by Gabriel | November 12, 2012, 10:28 pmPoor People make Great Voters
So you think that the 50% of the popular vote that Obama got was from the 46 million people on Food stamps.
Gabriel,
According to the articles I’ve read, about 120 million Americans voted. 50.5% voted Obama, 48.0 voted for Romney. The popular vote was rather close. It is my opinion most of the 46 million food stamp recipients voted Obama. I have a hard time believing those receiving government checks and entitlements voted for Romney, however, you are free to believe this if you want. There is no data I’ve seen showing how those receiving food stamps voted. Add to that the fact that 93% of blacks and 70% of hispanics voted Obama, (not including white urban “progressives” and college students), and that pretty much sums up how Obama won.
Maverick,
If you think Bill O’Reilly and Carl Rove are extremists, Juan Cole takes the cake.
Juan Cole is the typical anti-American, anti-zionist academic, who gets a rather large paycheck for apologizing for the worst arab despots and theocracies. These anti-democracy university elites, like Professor Josh, are really a dime a dozen…
http://www.juancole.com/
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 13, 2012, 8:11 amAP:
http://chartsbin.com/view/1403
Here’s a map I found on the web that breaks down % use of Food Stamps across the various states.
Why don’t you overlay this map over the elections results map that way we can find out how those using Food Stamps are more likely to vote, or in fact voted.
Posted by Gabriel | November 13, 2012, 9:20 amGabriel,
Thanks. I can’t draw any conclusions from your map. Many states fall Republican, many are blue states. But this doesn’t change my mind. The fact is half of all working Americans pay taxes the other half doesn’t.
Entitlements are causing our deficit to grow astronomically and the US is in danger of becoming another Greece or Spain if we don’t cut spending.
http://www.ntu.org/tax-basics/who-pays-income-taxes.html
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 13, 2012, 1:54 pmAP.
Rest assured I do not intend to change your mind. But the map provides far better conclusions than the numbers you keep coming here and throwing around, in your Reductio Ad absurdum strategy of debate.
Example:
There are 47 million people on food stamps in the US.
A little over 100 million people voted.
Obama won about 50% of the popular vote
Conclusion: Food Stamp collectors voted Obama to power.
Actually, you don’t know how the food stamp collectors voted, or if they voted at all. You don’t know how many of them are rabidly anti-gay marriage, and anti-abortion, that they would have voted for Romney anyways , on principle. You don’t know if the Food Stamp collectors are hard working Americans trying to make ends meet, or are lazy crackheads. You don’t know Jack S&%t.
What the map shows is that Food Stamp collectors are not limited to “Blue” States. But also live in “Red” states. There is no greater percentage of food stamp collectors in Blue States than there are in Red States. Even if I accept your premise (and I don’t)… If your implication was that Stamp Collectors de-facto vote for Obama, then their votes in Red States went to naught.
So really, at the end of the day, how many of the 47 million Food Stamp collectors really tilted the balance in Obama’s favor?
And why did the Republicans not manage to sway enough of the non-Food-Stamp collecting people who voted Obama to vote their way?
Posted by Gabriel | November 13, 2012, 4:43 pmRe: link
Thanks for the link. It’s nice to see Americans are complaining about how much taxes they pay.
I don’t know anything about taxation in the USofA, so I won’t stick my nose into a topic I know nothing about.
Except to say this:
Of all my friends who moved South of the border and work in the US now, making hefty sums, they all say they pay considerably less tax in the US than in Canada.
I don’t know what the bottom line of the site is trying to say: that taxes are progressive? That the have nots are exempt from paying as much tax as the haves?
What in that site were you hoping to stick out like a sore thumb and shock me into sympathy for Donald Trump?
Posted by Gabriel | November 13, 2012, 4:57 pmThe Muslim Bros: Doing more Good in the World
Gabriel,
OK so you’re Canadian.
I don’t know what the bottom line of the site is trying to say: that taxes are progressive? That the have nots are exempt from paying as much tax as the haves?
I think what conservatives are saying are a number of things.
1.) The most important thing we are saying is that SPENDING is WAAAAY to high and it needs to stop:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/budget-deficit-rises-120-billion-october-190237736–business.html
Too many people are collecting entitlements that they shouldn’t be collecting. Fraud needs to be addressed. People are collecting money who are physically and mentally able to work. People in this category should be forced to work if they are able. The US Govt should take a few billions of dollars to create Work Offices where the unemployed can go to find a job. If they find a job, they should present their checks to collect benefits.
2.) Illegal immigration should be enforced. Illegal immigrants are another burden to American society.
3.) Be more business friendly. Poor people don’t create jobs, rich people do. American businesses are taxed higher than most other countries.
Now back to the ME.
The Muslim Bros in Egypt put out a statement where they said (in part):
“The killing of tens of our innocent Palestinian brothers is part of a link in a chain of oppression and Judaization that seeks to impose itself on the ground, and that will never materialize with God’s will,” it said.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4304988,00.html
Does anyone know if they were as equally critical of the Assad regime which has taken the lives of over 35,000 people?
This is almost as good as Turkey’s indictment against the IDF.
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 14, 2012, 8:12 ambehave yourself, criminal.
Posted by 3issa | November 15, 2012, 5:54 am“Oh, behave!”
3issa,
I take it “behave” means absorbing hundreds of rockets and missile firings without responding? Or did you mean something else?
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 15, 2012, 7:45 am3issa,
So it is criminal for one to defend themselves? Let’s cut the BS about the “poor Palestinians”. Let them agree among themselves first then come to the table. Let’s not encourage terrorists to flourish!
Posted by danny | November 15, 2012, 9:54 am“Let’s not encourage terrorists to flourish!”
Posted by 3issa | November 15, 2012, 12:27 pmMay I suggest an antidote to A Palace?
https://twitter.com/MJayRosenberg
BTW, Danny. The IDF spokesman is lying to you again. One would think you might have figured this out by now….
Posted by lally | November 15, 2012, 12:53 pmLala,
You can suggest anything you want. A simple link to the Great Chomsky and Finkelstein websites are always a best bet for those looking for Joos who hate Israel or can’t afford Joos the right to self-defense.
Fortunately, the majority of world is still objective on this no-brainer issue. Even The Annoited One, Barrack Obama.
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 15, 2012, 2:05 pmlally,
I don’t give a rat’s ass about IDF or its spokesmen…I know first hand what our dear Palestinian brothers are capable of.
Posted by danny | November 15, 2012, 2:28 pmToday’s Ironic Comment of the Day
“Attacks on the south of Israel and the disproportionate strikes on Gaza – especially when civilians are killed on both sides – are completely unacceptable,” foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich told reporters.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4306230,00.html
Stay tuned for more unbelievable-but-true statements made by the best foreign diplomats the world has to offer…
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 15, 2012, 2:54 pmYour Palestinian brothers in Gaza did something nasty to you, Danny? Or are you extrapolating from another time and place in order to justify the latest blood revels of your Israeli cousins?
Posted by lally | November 15, 2012, 5:24 pmSo much talk of Terrorists flying around, it’s hard to tell who’s a terrorist anymore.
I call for a moratorium on the use of the word!
Posted by Gabriel | November 15, 2012, 7:45 pmToday’s Talking Points
So much talk of Terrorists flying around, it’s hard to tell who’s a terrorist anymore.
Gabriel,
Yeah it’s really hard to tell, especially when missiles are fired indiscriminately into Israeli population centers from missile launchers located within the civilian population. And for what purpose?
So yes, if you thought Arab Anger™ would be directed more against a regime that has killed over 35,000 arabs in the past 2 years, you’d be sorely mistaken.
Once again, arab and muslim priorities dictate the mythical erradication of the sovereign state of Israel rather than dealing with their own problems. Oh well, here we go again…
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 16, 2012, 7:57 amIronic Statement of the Day
“The Israelis must realize that this aggression is unacceptable and would only lead to instability in the region and would negatively and greatly impact the security of the region,” Mursi said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/15/us-palestinians-israel-hamas-idUSBRE8AD0WP20121115
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 16, 2012, 8:15 amHalal Anger Management – Lesson #38C
Thousand rally in Egypt! Not to worry, they’re not rallying against Bashar Assad…
http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-rally-egypt-against-israel-offensive-131030199.html
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 16, 2012, 12:14 pmAP:
How many civilians have the US killed in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan? Or did you stop counting.
PS. I thought there was already lots of Arab Anger™ directed against the regime of Bashar. They are openly funding, supporting and arming the opposition! What more do you want from them. At least all they do in the case of Israel is take to the streets with empty rhetoric!
Finally, I’m a little confused by Danny’s position and his definition of terrorists. Hamas are terrorists in Palestine, but the MB in Syria are not. Who did the MB in Syria side with when the Palestinians were wreaking havoc in Lebanon?
This word terrorist has become so over-used, it has lost any significance it may have had. People seem to throw it around based on their cause celebre.
Posted by Gabriel | November 16, 2012, 2:26 pmHow many civilians have the US killed in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan? Or did you stop counting.
Gabriel,
Not nearly as many as Sadam, the Taliban and the shadowy thugs and insurgents.
I thought there was already lots of Arab Anger™ directed against the regime of Bashar.
Define “lots”? Did Mursi fly somewhere (like Gaza) so he could swing his fist in solidarity to the Syrian people? Arab Anger™ is never fully realized unless a Joo kills an Arab (no matter what the circumstances are).
At least all they do in the case of Israel is take to the streets with empty rhetoric!
Why don’t anyone take to the streets when Bashar murders hundreds every week for the past 2 years?
Finally, I’m a little confused by Danny’s position and his definition of terrorists.
You’ll have to excuse Danny. He probably had a Jewish mother or something.
This word terrorist has become so over-used, it has lost any significance it may have had.
Gabriel,
You must be an employee of the BBC. Wait a minute, the BBC used this term a few times when describing 9-11. See, even the BBC can lose their cool…
Posted by Akbar Palace | November 16, 2012, 2:45 pmAP…
I didn’t ask you how many people Saddam and the Taliban killed. I asked how many people the US killed. We’re not arguing here whether or not the former are bad people or not.
You keep throwing the 35000 dead people in Syria around. I think the idea is to compare the fact that the numbers killed by Israelis is considerably less than that.
I flip the logic back to you.
Did the US kill more or less than 35000 civilians in its various forays?
And if yes, why are you so offended by the actions of Bashar, and not equally as offended by the actions of your own government?
On a side note: Are all the 35000 killed in Syria killed by Bashar? Or are some of those deaths caused by the insurgency there?
Posted by Gabriel | November 16, 2012, 2:55 pm